000
AGUS72 KALR 241538
HMDALR
ALR

HYDROLOGIST FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER / ATLANTA, GA
1135 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2009 

ATTENTION/ AREA AFFECTED WFO: ALR JAX MLB 

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE ST JOHNS AND ST MARYS BASIN: 

...ST JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR NEAR FLOOD STAGE ...

ON THE ST JOHNS RIVER NEAR ASTOR...THE RIVER HAS LEVELED OFF THE PAST 
COUPLE DAYS NEAR 2.7 FEET JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE. TIDAL FLUCTUATIONS 
ARE EVIDENT IN THE OBSERVATIONS WITH THE APPARENT UNDULATIONS IN STAGE.
.  MOST OF THE SMALL CREEKS HAVE CRESTED AND UPSTREAM AT DELAND THE 
RIVER HAS LEVELED OFF WITH ONLY A SLIGHT RISE DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
.  SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE KEPT BACKWATER INFLUENCES FROM LAKE GEORGE 
TO A MINIMUM.  GIVEN LATEST TRENDS IN RIVER STAGE OBSERVATIONS...SOUTHERLY 
WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND MODELED ROUTINGS FROM DELAND UPSTREAM 
SHOULD ALREADY BEGIN TO BE APPARENT AT ASTOR...DECIDED TO LOWER FORECAST 
DOWN TO THE MINOR FLOOD STAGE OF 2.8 FEET FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
.  EXPECT RIVER COULD GO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT TIMES WITH TIDAL UNDULATIONS 
WITH THE STAGES PRIMARILY RANGING IN THE 2.65 TO 2.80 RANGE OVERALL 
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. COORDINATING WITH THE MLB WFO...WITH 
THE POSSIBILITY OF THE RIVER JUMPING ABOVE THE 2.80 RANGE DURING THE 
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WILL STICK WITH KEEPING THE MINOR FLOOD STAGE 
FORECAST.

ON THE ST MARYS AT MACCLENNY...THE RIVER CONTINUES ON A SLOW RECESSION 
AND IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FLOOD ON TUESDAY.  RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE 
TO BE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH GENERALLY 
0.25 TO 0.50 INCH BASIN AVERAGES WHCIH SHOULD KEEP THIS SLOW RECESSION 
IN TACT.

JD

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THE SERFC IS INTERESTED IN THE USEFULNESS OF THIS
PRODUCT AND WELCOMES YOUR COMMENTS OR FEEDBACK ON 
HOW THIS WAS USED IN YOUR OPERATIONS. PLEASE SEND
ANY COMMENTS TO....JOHN.FELDT@NOAA.GOV


...SERFC...




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