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Flood Warning


FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1033 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A RIVER FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR...THE MANATEE RIVER NEAR MYAKKA
HEAD...THE ALAFIA RIVER AT LITHIA...THE LITTLE MANATEE RIVER AT
WIMAUMA...THE MYAKKA RIVER AT THE MYAKKA RIVER STATE PARK...THE PEACE
RIVER AT ARCADIA...AND THE HORSE CREEK NEAR ARCADIA...

.MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IF
ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN OCCURS OVER THE RIVER BASINS THE FLOODING WILL
BECOME WORSE.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

FLC027-011533-
/O.CON.KTBW.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/ARCF1.1.ER.140930T0345Z.141004T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1033 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE PEACE RIVER AT ARCADIA
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
* AT 09 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.3 FEET
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 12.3 FEET BY FRIDAY EVENING THEN BEGIN
  FALLING.
* IMPACT...AT 12 FEET...THE GIRL SCOUT CAMP FLOODS.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 11.1 FEET ON JUL
30 2013.

&&


             FLD  OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG  STG  DAY TIME    WED    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN

PEACE
 ARCADIA      11 11.3  TUE 09 PM  11.6   11.9   12.2   12.3   12.2


&&


LAT...LON 2735 8179 2714 8189 2704 8197 2704 8202
 2714 8197 2735 8186



$$

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1033 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A RIVER FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR...THE MANATEE RIVER NEAR MYAKKA
HEAD...THE ALAFIA RIVER AT LITHIA...THE LITTLE MANATEE RIVER AT
WIMAUMA...THE MYAKKA RIVER AT THE MYAKKA RIVER STATE PARK...THE PEACE
RIVER AT ARCADIA...AND THE HORSE CREEK NEAR ARCADIA...

.MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IF
ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN OCCURS OVER THE RIVER BASINS THE FLOODING WILL
BECOME WORSE.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

FLC027-011533-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-141004T1800Z/
/ARHF1.1.ER.140928T1807Z.140929T1800Z.141004T1200Z.NO/
1033 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES FOR THE HORSE CREEK NEAR ARCADIA
* UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON
* AT 09 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.8 FEET
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 12.8 FEET BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW.
  THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 12 FEET...THE ACCESS ROAD TO HIDDEN ACRES IS IMPASSABLE.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 12.7 FEET ON SEP
26 2013.

&&


             FLD  OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG  STG  DAY TIME    WED    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN

HORSE CREEK
 ARCADIA      12 12.8  TUE 09 PM  12.8   12.5   12.3   12.0   11.7


&&


LAT...LON 2726 8194 2708 8198 2708 8202 2726 8201




$$

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1033 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A RIVER FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR...THE MANATEE RIVER NEAR MYAKKA
HEAD...THE ALAFIA RIVER AT LITHIA...THE LITTLE MANATEE RIVER AT
WIMAUMA...THE MYAKKA RIVER AT THE MYAKKA RIVER STATE PARK...THE PEACE
RIVER AT ARCADIA...AND THE HORSE CREEK NEAR ARCADIA...

.MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IF
ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN OCCURS OVER THE RIVER BASINS THE FLOODING WILL
BECOME WORSE.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

FLC081-011500-
/O.CON.KTBW.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-141001T1500Z/
/MKHF1.2.ER.140926T2344Z.140928T1015Z.141001T0900Z.NO/
1033 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE MANATEE RIVER NEAR MYAKKA HEAD
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING
* AT 09 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.5 FEET
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11 FEET
* THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY TOMORROW.
* IMPACT...AT 11 FEET...PRIVATE ROAD AND BRIDGE 1 MILE DOWNSTREAM FLOOD.
  AGRICULTURAL, RURAL KIBLER AREA BEGINS TO FLOOD.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 11.4 FEET ON SEP
18 2013.

&&


             FLD  OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG  STG  DAY TIME    WED    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN

MANATEE
 MYAKKA HEAD  11 11.5  TUE 09 PM  10.9   10.2    9.4    8.6    7.4


&&


LAT...LON 2746 8217 2743 8224 2745 8233 2752 8233
 2751 8224 2753 8224



$$

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1033 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A RIVER FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR...THE MANATEE RIVER NEAR MYAKKA
HEAD...THE ALAFIA RIVER AT LITHIA...THE LITTLE MANATEE RIVER AT
WIMAUMA...THE MYAKKA RIVER AT THE MYAKKA RIVER STATE PARK...THE PEACE
RIVER AT ARCADIA...AND THE HORSE CREEK NEAR ARCADIA...

.MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IF
ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN OCCURS OVER THE RIVER BASINS THE FLOODING WILL
BECOME WORSE.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

FLC115-011533-
/O.CON.KTBW.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MKCF1.2.ER.140926T2121Z.141001T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1033 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE MYAKKA RIVER AT MYAKKA RIVER STATE PARK
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
* AT 10 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.4 FEET
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 9.6 FEET BY TOMORROW MORNING THEN
BEGIN FALLING.
* IMPACT...AT 10.6 FEET...THE WALKWAY TO THE RIVER GAGE FLOODS.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 8.1 FEET ON JUN 30
  2012.

&&


             FLD  OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG  STG  DAY TIME    WED    THU    FRI    SAT    SUN

MYAKKA
 MYAKKA RIVE   7  9.4  TUE 10 PM   9.6    9.4    9.2    9.1    8.7


&&


LAT...LON 2726 8226 2715 8234 2715 8238 2731 8226




$$


Hazardous Weather Outlook


HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
332 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
020000-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
332 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS INTERIOR AND EAST COAST TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER THE
INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THE
STORMS WILL BE LIGHTING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

FLOODING: THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR STREET FLOODING IN THE
HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE PRIMARY
THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION LOCATED
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

$$

BAXTER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
523 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FLZ076>078-GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075-011030-
MONROE UPPER KEYS-MONROE MIDDLE KEYS-MONROE LOWER KEYS-
FLORIDA BAY INCLUDING BARNES SOUND, BLACKWATER SOUND, AND
BUTTONWOOD SOUND-
BAYSIDE AND GULF SIDE FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE-
GULF WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE 20 TO 60 NM OUT
AND BEYOND 5 FATHOMS-
GULF OF MEXICO INCLUDING DRY TORTUGAS AND REBECCA SHOAL CHANNEL-
GULF OF MEXICO FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO HALFMOON
SHOAL OUT TO 5 FATHOMS-
HAWK CHANNEL FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT TO THE REEF-
HAWK CHANNEL FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE OUT
TO THE REEF-
HAWK CHANNEL FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO HALFMOON SHOAL
OUT TO THE REEF-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO SOUTH OF
HALFMOON SHOAL OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM HALFMOON SHOAL TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY
TORTUGAS OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO SOUTH OF
HALFMOON SHOAL 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM HALFMOON SHOAL TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY
TORTUGAS 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
523 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM
HAZARD WILL BE LIGHTNING.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM HAZARD WILL BE
LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

$$

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
500 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165-
239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-GMZ830-836-850-853-856-870-
873-876-010900-
SUMTER-PINELLAS-POLK-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-DESOTO-COASTAL LEVY-
COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL PASCO-
COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-
COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-INLAND LEVY-INLAND CITRUS-
INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND PASCO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND MANATEE-
INLAND SARASOTA-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND LEE-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
500 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL
PRODUCE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL
AS THE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN
AND EXERCISE CAUTION IF ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAIN TODAY.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A SUBTLE INCREASE IN THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASED
RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES TODAY. A RIP CURRENT
IS A 10 TO 30 YARD WIDE CHANNEL OF WATER THAT CAN PULL EVEN A
STRONG SWIMMER INTO DEEPER WATER. TO AVOID GETTING CAUGHT IN A
RIP CURRENT...SWIM AT GUARDED BEACHES AND HEED THE ADVICE OF THE
BEACH PATROL. AT UNGUARDED BEACHES AND NEAR PIERS...JETTIES...AND
INLETS...DO NOT GO INTO THE SURF MUCH ABOVE YOUR KNEES.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
SEVERAL AREA RIVERS ARE AT OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE WITH OTHER RIVERS
AROUND ACTION STAGE. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG RIVERS OR FASTER
FLOWING STREAMS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF WATER LEVELS AND BE READY
TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND SHOULD FLOODING BE OBSERVED. SEE THE
LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS AVAILABLE ON
WEATHER.GOV/TAMPABAY FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE HEAVY RAIN MAY PRODUCE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS THE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
SEVERAL AREA RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG
RIVERS OR FASTER FLOWING STREAMS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF WATER
LEVELS AND BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND SHOULD FLOODING BE
OBSERVED. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS AVAILABLE
ON WEATHER.GOV/TAMPABAY FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

$$

MCMICHAEL

U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 2, 2009
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