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Flood Warning


FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
744 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following areas in Texas...

  Cowleech Fork Sabine River At Greenville Affecting Hunt County

  South Fork Sabine River Near Quinlan Affecting Hunt and Rockwall
  Counties

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.
Stay tuned to NOAA All Hazards Radio for the latest river forecasts.


&&

TXC231-397-061344-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-150306T1811Z/
/QLAT2.1.ER.150305T0030Z.150305T1130Z.150306T0611Z.NO/
744 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The South Fork Sabine River Near Quinlan.
* At 0545 PM Thursday the stage was 15.54 feet.
* Flood stage is  15 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river has crested and will continue to recede and
  fall below flood stage by Friday after midnight.
* At 15 feet Minor out of bank flooding will occur.

&&

LAT...LON 3287 9634 3283 9620 3293 9615 3297 9627

$$

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
744 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following areas in Texas...

  Cowleech Fork Sabine River At Greenville Affecting Hunt County

  South Fork Sabine River Near Quinlan Affecting Hunt and Rockwall
  Counties

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.
Stay tuned to NOAA All Hazards Radio for the latest river forecasts.


&&

TXC231-061344-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-150306T1800Z/
/GNVT2.1.ER.150305T0003Z.150305T1130Z.150306T0600Z.NO/
744 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Cowleech Fork Sabine River At Greenville.
* At 0545 PM Thursday the stage was 13.92 feet.
* Flood stage is  14 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage Friday
  after midnight.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage by
  Friday after midnight and crest near  14 feet by Friday after
  midnight. the river should fall below flood stage by Friday after
  midnight.
* At 14 feet Minor out of bank flooding will occur along the river
  reach.

&&

LAT...LON 3317 9619 3303 9607 3309 9595 3319 9605

$$

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
742 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

TXC067-315-070142-
/O.CON.KSHV.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/JEFT2.1.ER.150305T0815Z.150308T1100Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
742 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

The flood warning continues for
  the Black Cypress Bayou At Jefferson Texas.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 600 PM Thursday the stage was 13.8 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13 feet.
* Forecast...The bayou will continue rising to near 14.5 feet by
  Sunday morning then begin falling.
* Impact...at 13.0 feet...Lowland flooding will affect mainly timber
  resources.

&&

LAT...LON 3297 9448 3275 9425 3275 9433 3278 9440 3289 9450

$$

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
741 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

TXC159-343-449-070141-
/O.EXT.KSHV.FL.W.0032.150307T0600Z-150311T0600Z/
/WOCT2.1.ER.150307T0600Z.150308T1100Z.150310T1200Z.NO/
741 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...The flood warning extended until late Tuesday night...The flood
warning continues for
  the White Oak Creek Near Talco Texas.
* from late Friday night to late Tuesday night...or until the warning
  is cancelled.
* At 615 PM Thursday the stage was 15.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 16 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by early Saturday morning and
  continue to rise to near 16.5 feet by Sunday morning. The creek
  will fall below flood stage by Tuesday morning.
* Impact...at 16.0 feet...Expect minor lowland flooding of creek
  bottoms.  Ranchers that may have cattle and equipment in the creek
  bottoms should move them to higher ground.

&&

LAT...LON 3328 9531 3336 9506 3328 9466 3324 9465 3326 9513

$$

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
740 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

TXC037-067-343-070140-
/O.CON.KSHV.FL.W.0024.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/NAPT2.1.ER.000000T0000Z.150309T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
740 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

The flood warning continues for
  the Sulphur River Near Naples Texas.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 710 AM Thursday the stage was 24.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 22 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 26.5 feet by
  Monday evening then begin falling.
* Impact...Minor lowland flooding of the boat ramp.

&&

LAT...LON 3331 9466 3328 9456 3330 9447 3324 9462 3326 9466

$$

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
740 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

TXC159-343-387-449-070140-
/O.EXT.KSHV.FL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-150308T0627Z/
/TLCT2.1.ER.150305T0439Z.150305T2145Z.150307T1227Z.NO/
740 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

The flood warning continues for
  the Sulphur River Below Talco Texas.
* until late Saturday night...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 615 PM Thursday the stage was 23.2 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 20 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by
  Saturday morning.  Also the Sulphur River will crest very near
  23.2 feet during the remainder of this Thursday evening through early
  Friday morning.
* Impact...at 25.0 feet...Expect moderate flooding of lowland areas
  with some secondary roadways closed. All cattle and equipment
  nearby the river should be moved to higher ground.

&&

LAT...LON 3338 9530 3341 9488 3331 9466 3326 9466 3331 9478

$$

FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
730 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

TXC423-499-070130-
/O.NEW.KSHV.FL.W.0033.150306T0202Z-150308T2100Z/
/MLAT2.1.ER.150306T0202Z.150307T0000Z.150308T0300Z.NO/
730 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

The National Weather Service in Shreveport has issued a

* FLOOD WARNING FOR
  the Sabine River Near Mineola Texas.
* until Sunday afternoon...or until the warning is cancelled.
* AT 615 PM Thursday the stage was 13.8 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage late this Thursday evening and
  continue to rise to near 15.1 feet by Friday evening. The river
  will recede below flood stage by late Saturday evening.
* Impact...Minor lowland flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3278 9574 3263 9535 3257 9535 3259 9550 3273 9574

$$

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1007 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

TXC183-061607-
/O.CON.KSHV.FL.W.0031.150306T0000Z-150307T1200Z/
/KLGT2.1.ER.150306T0000Z.150306T0000Z.150306T0000Z.NO/
1007 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

The flood warning continues for
  the Rabbit Creek At Kilgore.
* from this evening to Saturday morning...or until the warning is
  cancelled.
* At  7:10 AM Thursday THE stage WAS 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage this
  evening.
* Impact...at 10.0 feet...Expect lowland flooding of timber resources
  in and near the creek. Some oil field operations may be affected.

&&

LAT...LON 3233 9499 3242 9489 3245 9479 3242 9478 3230 9498

$$


Hard Freeze Warning


URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
531 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

...VERY COLD AIR MASS TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA...

.SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING.

LAZ027>029-TXZ180-259-260-061500-
/O.CON.KLCH.HZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-150306T1500Z/
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-TYLER-NORTHERN JASPER-NORTHERN NEWTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...NEW LLANO...ALEXANDRIA...
PINEVILLE...MARKSVILLE...BUNKIE...COTTONPORT...SIMMESPORT...
MANSURA...WOODVILLE...COLMESNEIL...JASPER...KIRBYVILLE...NEWTON
531 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

...HARD FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS
MORNING...

* TEMPERATURE...AROUND 25 DEGREES.

* IMPACTS...TEMPERATURES WILL KILL SENSITIVE VEGETATION AND POSE
  A RISK TO ANIMALS AND PLUMBING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HARD FREEZE WARNING MEANS TEMPERATURES OF 25 DEGREES OR LOWER
ARE IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS
AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION...POSE A HEALTH RISK TO PETS...AND
MAY CAUSE EXPOSED PLUMBING TO FREEZE. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT PLANTS...PETS...AND PIPES.

&&

$$


Freeze Warning


URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
531 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

...VERY COLD AIR MASS TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA...

.SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING.

LAZ041-042-052>055-073-074-TXZ201-215-216-261-262-061500-
/O.CON.KLCH.FZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-150306T1500Z/
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON-EAST CAMERON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-
ORANGE-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAKE CHARLES...SULPHUR...JENNINGS...
WELSH...LAKE ARTHUR...ABBEVILLE...KAPLAN...NEW IBERIA...
MORGAN CITY...FRANKLIN...PATTERSON...BERWICK...BAYOU VISTA...
STEPHENSVILLE...HACKBERRY...HOLLY BEACH...CAMERON...
GRAND CHENIER...LUMBERTON...SILSBEE...BEAUMONT...PORT ARTHUR...
ORANGE...VIDOR...BRIDGE CITY...BUNA...DEWEYVILLE
531 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING...

* TEMPERATURE...27 TO 32 DEGREES.

* IMPACTS...FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY HARM TENDER VEGETATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 32 TO 26 DEGREES ARE
IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND
OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

RUA


Hazardous Weather Outlook


HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
520 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-071130-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
520 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT GENERALLY NORTH OF A
BRENHAM TO LIBERTY LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVERHEAD SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THOUGH MONDAY AND GENERATE GOOD CHANCES OF RAINFALL
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. COMPUTER MODEL DATA SUGGESTS BETWEEN 1
AND 3 INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL DURING THE TIME PERIOD. IT IS
STILL TOO EARLY TO ACCURATELY NARROW DOWN SPECIFIC DETAILS. WE
WILL BE LOOKING AT MODEL CONSISTENCY AND ALSO TRY TO DETERMINE
WHETHER THESE TOTALS STEADILY CLIMB OVER A LONGER DURATION OF
TIME (LESS OF A FLASH FLOOD IMPACT) OR WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTER DURATION HEAVIER EVENT (HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STREET
FLOODING).

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
509 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-071115-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
509 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44.
ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...
OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WINDS WILL GUST 15 TO 20 MPH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY BETWEEN 30 AND 40
PERCENT. THAT WILL RESULT IN A LIMITED FIRE DANGER
THREAT...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. OTHERWISE...THE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET AND DRY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
452 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
071200-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON-
EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-
NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
452 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LIGHT FREEZE IS AGAIN EXPECTED FOR MOST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN JET STREAM WILL BRING CHANCES OF RAIN BEGINNING
ON SUNDAY. SOME OF THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES ON MONDAY AS
A SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH THE DEEP
GULF MOISTURE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

$$


Hydrologic Outlook


HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
TXC013-019-021-029-031-053-055-091-123-127-137-149-163-171-177-
187-209-255-259-265-271-285-287-299-323-325-385-453-463-465-491-
493-507-071945-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
131 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

BELOW AVERAGE POTENTIAL FOR SPRING FLOODING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...

FOR THE SPRING OF 2015...THE WEST GULF RIVER FORECAST CENTER IS
FORECASTING A BELOW AVERAGE POTENTIAL FOR SPRING FLOODING OVER ALL
RIVERS AND CREEKS IN THE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HYDROLOGIC SERVICES
AREA (HSA). THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING BASINS...COLORADO
RIVER...BRAZOS RIVER...SAN MARCOS RIVER...GUADALUPE RIVER...SAN
ANTONIO RIVER...MEDINA RIVER...NUECES RIVER...FRIO RIVER AND THE
RIO GRANDE.

EXISTING CONDITIONS...ABNORMALLY DRY TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WERE NOTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE MAJORITY OF
THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA) IS CURRENTLY IN MODERATE TO
EXTREME DROUGHT. EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS WERE
NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU.

SOIL MOISTURE...SOILS ARE CURRENTLY SLIGHTLY DRY TO NEAR NORMAL.
THE DRIEST SOILS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY AND
AND PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THE LACK OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AND SEVERAL YEARS OF DROUGHT...OR AT LEAST DRIER THAN
AVERAGE CONDITIONS HAVE CAUSED SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS TO BE BELOW
AVERAGE. SOILS ACROSS THE REGION WOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE MOST
RAINFALL EVENTS WITH LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. IF
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE TO BECOME EXCESSIVE THEN A THREAT WOULD
EXIST FOR RIVER FLOODING.

STREAMFLOW...DURING MUCH OF THE FALL AND WINTER STREAMFLOWS HAVE
REMAINED BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MOST BASINS. THE RIO
GRANDE BASIN HAS CONTINUED TO SEE NEAR NORMAL FLOWS. THERE WERE
ISOLATED PRECIPITATION EVENTS THAT DID CAUSE SOME INCREASED
FLOWS...BUT THESE EVENTS WERE VERY LIMITED AND MOSTLY IN OR NEAR
URBAN LOCATIONS. CURRENTLY THE GUADALUPE...MEDINA...FRIO AND
NUECES BASINS WERE REPORTING MUCH BELOW AVERAGE FLOWS. THE
COLORADO REPORTED BELOW AVERAGE FLOWS. THE SAN ANTONIO AND RIO
GRANDE BASINS WERE REPORTING NORMAL FLOWS.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS...RESERVOIRS AND LAKES ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC
SERVICES AREA (HSA) REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL POOL ELEVATION
LEVELS. A FEW RESERVOIRS HAVE SEEN IMPROVEMENTS AND ARE CURRENTLY
NEAR CONSERVATION POOL LEVELS. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SLIGHT RISES
IN THE LEVELS OVER THE FALL AND WINTER...BUT MOST REMAIN VERY LOW.
MEDINA LAKE WAS AT 3.2 PERCENT OF CONSERVATION CAPACITY OR 89.8
FEET BELOW THE CONSERVATION POOL. LAKE TRAVIS REMAINS AT 34.2
PERCENT OF CAPACITY OR 55.2 FEET BELOW THE CONSERVATION POOL. WITH
THESE EXTREMELY LOW LAKE LEVELS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET BACK
TO THE NORMAL CONSERVATION POOL.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPORADIC DURING THE FALL AND WINTER
WITH A COUPLE OF MONTHS SEEING ABOVE AVERAGE AND A COUPLE WITH
BELOW AVERAGE RAINFALL. THE RAINFALL HAS HELPED TO DIMINISH SHORT
TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS...BUT THE LONGER TERM IMPACTS REMAIN DUE TO
THE DRY CONDITIONS THAT EXTEND BACK 18-24 MONTHS.

CLIMATE REGIME...AN WEAK ENSO (EL NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION) EL
NINO PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST FEW MONTHS AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE 2015 SPRING.
THE ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WE HAVE
SEEN IN A FEW MONTHS DURING THE FALL AND WINTER ARE CHARACTERISTIC
OF AN EL NINO EVENT.

METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
MONTHLY AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SPRING
(MARCH/APRIL/MAY) AND INTO THE SUMMER (JUNE/JULY/AUGUST) CONTINUE
TO SHOW STRONGER TRENDS FOR ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL AND BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MAY. FOR THE SUMMER PERIOD THE
STRONGER TRENDS ARE CALLING FOR EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE...BELOW OR
NEAR AVERAGE RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURES. THE LATEST UNITED STATES
SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK SHOWS DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUING OR
INTENSIFYING THROUGH MAY 31 2015 ACROSS THE AREAS CURRENTLY IN
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICES AREA (HSA).

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...
AFTER SEVERAL YEARS OF DROUGHT AND SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR AVERAGE
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...LOW STREAM FLOWS AND THE VERY LOW LAKE
AND RESERVOIR LEVELS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRING FLOODING DURING
2015 IS BELOW AVERAGE.

REFERENCES/LINKS;
(USE ALL LOWER CASE)

PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS:
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP/

STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS:
WATERWATCH.USGS.GOV/

RESERVOIR SUMMARIES:
WATERFORTEXAS.ORG/RESERVOIRS/STATEWIDE

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS:
CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/
CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/ANALYSIS_MONITORING/
REGIONAL_MONITORING/PALMER.GIF

US DROUGHT MONITOR AND OUTLOOK:
DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU
CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/

TX DROUGHT INFORMATION:
WATERDATAFORTEXAS.ORG/DROUGHT/
CLIMATEXAS.TAMU.EDU

CLIMATE GRAPHICS:
CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/

LOCAL WEATHER...RIVER...CLIMATE AND FORECAST INFORMATION FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS:
SRH.WEATHER.GOV/EWX

$$

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
061845-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1238 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...

INTRODUCTION...

THIS IS THE 2015 SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA. THIS ISSUANCE
OUTLINES CURRENT RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS AND HIGHLIGHTS
POTENTIAL SITUATIONS THAT COULD INDUCE FLOODING.

ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...
DURING THE PAST TWO MONTHS...SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL LOUISIANA HAVE EXPERIENCED GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TO TO NEAR
NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE DRIEST CONDITIONS
FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THIS CORRESPONDS TO THE WATER YEAR SO FAR
(SINCE OCTOBER 1 2014) WITH RAIN TOTALS RUNNING BETWEEN 50 AND 90
PERCENT OF NORMAL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW POCKETS IN SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA WHERE RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN NEAR
NORMAL.

ACCORDING TO THE US GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (USGS)...CURRENT 28 DAY
AVERAGE STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW BELOW NORMAL
CONDITIONS WITH FLOWS AVERAGING 20 PERCENT OF NORMAL. RECENT
RAINFALLS IN THE PAST WEEK HAVE CREATED A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN
SHORT TERM STREAM FLOWS.

THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR INDICATES MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND ABNORMALLY DRY ELSEWHERE IN LOUISIANA.


RIVER BASIN HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...

...NECHES AND SABINE RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES...

RAINFALL THE PAST TWO MONTHS HAS BEEN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
ON THE SABINE AND NECHES BASINS. BASED ON EXISTING SOIL
MOISTURE...STREAMFLOW...AND NORMAL SPRING RAINFALL PATTERNS...THE
POTENTIAL FOR SPRING FLOODING IS NEAR NORMAL AT THIS TIME. IT SHOULD
BE REMEMBERED THAT FLOODING IN THE SABINE AND NECHES BASINS RESULTS
FROM HEAVY RAINFALL OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AND THESE
OCCURRENCES CAN NOT BE PREDICTED WELL IN ADVANCE.


...CALCASIEU...MERMENTAU AND VERMILION RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES...

DURING THE PAST TWO WEEKS, PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN NEAR NORMAL OVER
THE CALCASIEU AND MERMENTAU BASINS AND SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS
NORMAL. SEASONAL FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND FORECAST. OBSERVED DAILY
STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW.

                                              3/4
CALCASIEU RIVER              GLENMORA LA     111%
CALCASIEU RIVER                KINDER LA      97%
MERMENTAU RIVER             MERMENTAU LA     193%

BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOW...AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS...AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE MERMENTAU AND CALCASIEU BASINS.


...LOWER RED RIVER...

STREAMFLOWS ARE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE RED RIVER BASIN DOWNSTREAM OF
FULTON ARKANSAS. DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN ALLEVIATED FROM ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS. UPPER RED BASIN AND
OVERALL SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND EXPECTED IN THE UPPER RED RIVER
BASIN.

BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS...A AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOWER RED RIVER VALLEY.

...ATCHAFALAYA RIVER...
DURING THE EARLY WINTER, MUCH BELOW NORMAL STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS
HAVE OCCURRED OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER WHILE NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS OCCURRED IN THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. OVER
THE PAST TWO WEEKS CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED WITH ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WHICH HAS LED TO NORMAL STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS
ON THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

DURING THE PAST TWO WEEKS, SEASONAL FLOODING HAS OCCURRED OVER THE
SMALLER TRIBUTARIES OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. NO FLOODING HAS
OCCURRED ON THE LOWER OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI RIVERS THIS SEASON.
CURRENTLY MINOR RISES ARE OCCURRING ON THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
APPROACHING VICKSBURG.

AS OF MARCH 4...STREAMFLOW ON THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER NEAR SIMMESPORT
WAS NEAR 77% OF NORMAL.

BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS...AND NORMAL
SPRING RAINFALL PATTERNS...AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. THE MAGNITUDE OF FUTURE CRESTS
WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT AND EXTENT OF ANY UPSTREAM ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW COVER AND RESULTANT SNOWMELT...COUPLED WITH THE
FREQUENCY...INTENSITY...AND EXTENT OF SPRING RAINS.


METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 7 TO 10
DAYS...BRINGING OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN.  CURRENTLY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES ACROSS THE
AREA.

CLIMATOLOGICAL OUTLOOK...

THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
INDICATES HIGHER CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. HIGHER CHANCES OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

THE 30-DAY OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH INDICATES GREATER CHANCES
FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
AREA...WHILE THE 90-DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES HIGHER CHANCES OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW OR NORMAL PRECIPITATION.


PLEASE DIRECT QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THIS OUTLOOK TO...

JONATHAN BRAZZELL
SERVICE HYDROLOGIST
OR
MONTRA LOCKWOOD
FORECASTER
AT 337.477.5285 EXT 1

REFERENCES...
PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS:
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP/

STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS:
HTTP://WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/NWIS/RT

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/SOILMST_MONITORING/US/SOILMST/SOILMST.SHTML

US DROUGHT MONITOR AND OUTLOOK:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/EXPERT_ASSESSMENT/SEASON_DROUGHT.GIF

TX DROUGHT INFORMATION:
HTTP://WWW.TWDB.STATE.TX.US/APPS/DROUGHTINFO/ALLMAPVIEW.ASPX

CLIMATE GRAPHICS:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV/
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/LONG_RANGE/LEAD01/OFF01_TEMP.GIF
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/LONG_RANGE/LEAD01/OFF01_PRCP.GIF

$$

U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 2, 2009
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