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Flood Warning


FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
833 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...From the National Weather Service in Little Rock...the Flood
Warning continues for the following river in Arkansas...

  Ouachita River At Arkadelphia affecting Clark and Hot Spring
  Counties

  Ouachita River At Camden affecting Calhoun and Ouachita Counties

  Ouachita River At Thatcher L&D affecting Bradley...Calhoun and
  Union Counties


River forecasts are based on current conditions and rainfall
forecasted to occur over the next 12 hours. During periods of
flooding...Evening forecasts are reissued with updated rainfall
forecasts.

Observed and forecasted stage data plots are available on ourAdvanced
Hydrologic Prediction Service web page at...
www.srh.noaa.gov/lzk
Under the Current Conditions section...Select River and Lakes AHPS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...Remember to Turn Around...Don`t Drown
Do not drive cars through flooded areas.

Everyone with property or other interest along streams and rivers
should remain alert to changing weather forecast. Should conditions
change...Look for river forecast or Flood Warnings for use in

&&

ARC011-013-139-061733-
/O.CON.KLZK.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CALA4.1.ER.150226T2312Z.150311T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
833 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Ouachita River At Thatcher L&D.
* until further notice...Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  6:00 PM Thursday the stage was 80.7 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 79.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 83.8 feet by
  Tuesday evening.
* Impacts at 80.0 feet...Levee gates should be closed to prevent the
  river from backing into Calion Lake. Access to oil and gas rigs and
  to timber is flooded. There is wide coverage of flooding in the river
  bottoms.


&&


             Fld     Observed                 Forecast 7 AM
Location     Stg   Stg  Day Time    Fri    Sat    Sun    Mon    Tue

Ouachita River
  Thatcher L  79  80.7 Thu 06 PM   81.3   82.1   82.7   83.2   83.6


&&


LAT...LON 3311 9223 3323 9236 3329 9261 3338 9247
 3333 9226 3322 9212



$$

224

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
833 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...From the National Weather Service in Little Rock...the Flood
Warning continues for the following river in Arkansas...

  Ouachita River At Arkadelphia affecting Clark and Hot Spring
  Counties

  Ouachita River At Camden affecting Calhoun and Ouachita Counties

  Ouachita River At Thatcher L&D affecting Bradley...Calhoun and
  Union Counties


River forecasts are based on current conditions and rainfall
forecasted to occur over the next 12 hours. During periods of
flooding...Evening forecasts are reissued with updated rainfall
forecasts.

Observed and forecasted stage data plots are available on ourAdvanced
Hydrologic Prediction Service web page at...
www.srh.noaa.gov/lzk
Under the Current Conditions section...Select River and Lakes AHPS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...Remember to Turn Around...Don`t Drown
Do not drive cars through flooded areas.

Everyone with property or other interest along streams and rivers
should remain alert to changing weather forecast. Should conditions
change...Look for river forecast or Flood Warnings for use in

&&

ARC013-103-061733-
/O.EXT.KLZK.FL.W.0012.150306T0321Z-000000T0000Z/
/CAMA4.1.ER.150306T0321Z.150309T1700Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
833 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Ouachita River At Camden.
* until further notice...Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  5:30 PM Thursday the stage was 25.6 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage overnight and continue to rise
  to near 31.0 feet by Monday early afternoon.
* Impacts at 30.0 feet...State Highway 7 north of Camden floods, with
  detours nearby. Portions of Sandy Beach Park will flood. Some county
  roads north and east of Camden begin to flood.


&&


             Fld     Observed                 Forecast 7 AM
Location     Stg   Stg  Day Time    Fri    Sat    Sun    Mon    Tue

Ouachita River
  Camden      26  25.6 Thu 05 PM   27.0   28.8   30.2   30.9   31.0


&&


LAT...LON 3329 9261 3344 9280 3363 9289 3367 9275
 3350 9264 3338 9247



$$

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
833 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...From the National Weather Service in Little Rock...the Flood
Warning continues for the following river in Arkansas...

  Ouachita River At Arkadelphia affecting Clark and Hot Spring
  Counties

  Ouachita River At Camden affecting Calhoun and Ouachita Counties

  Ouachita River At Thatcher L&D affecting Bradley...Calhoun and
  Union Counties


River forecasts are based on current conditions and rainfall
forecasted to occur over the next 12 hours. During periods of
flooding...Evening forecasts are reissued with updated rainfall
forecasts.

Observed and forecasted stage data plots are available on ourAdvanced
Hydrologic Prediction Service web page at...
www.srh.noaa.gov/lzk
Under the Current Conditions section...Select River and Lakes AHPS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...Remember to Turn Around...Don`t Drown
Do not drive cars through flooded areas.

Everyone with property or other interest along streams and rivers
should remain alert to changing weather forecast. Should conditions
change...Look for river forecast or Flood Warnings for use in

&&

ARC019-059-061733-
/O.EXT.KLZK.FL.W.0011.150306T1800Z-150308T0000Z/
/AKDA4.1.ER.150306T1800Z.150306T1800Z.150306T1800Z.NO/
833 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...Flood Warning extended until Saturday evening...The Flood Warning
continues for
  The Ouachita River At Arkadelphia.
* from Friday afternoon to Saturday evening...Or until the warning is
  cancelled.
* At  5:00 PM Thursday the stage was 15.4 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage
  early Friday afternoon.
* Impacts at 17.0 feet...Farmland along the river begins to flood. Water over
  State Highway 7 and 51 at railroad underpass.

&&


             Fld     Observed                 Forecast 7 AM
Location     Stg   Stg  Day Time    Fri    Sat    Sun    Mon    Tue

Ouachita River
  Arkadelphi  17  15.4 Thu 05 PM   16.6   15.1   10.7    7.9    5.9


&&


LAT...LON 3363 9289 3396 9301 3410 9314 3416 9302
 3402 9288 3367 9275



$$

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
820 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...From the National Weather Service in Little Rock...the Flood
Warning continues for the following river in Arkansas...

  Petit Jean River At Danville affecting Yell County


River forecasts are based on current conditions and rainfall
forecasted to occur over the next 12 hours. During periods of
flooding...Evening forecasts are reissued with updated rainfall
forecasts.

Observed and forecasted stage data plots are available on ourAdvanced
Hydrologic Prediction Service web page at...
www.srh.noaa.gov/lzk
Under the Current Conditions section...Select River and Lakes AHPS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...Remember to Turn Around...Don`t Drown
Do not drive cars through flooded areas.

Everyone with property or other interest along streams and rivers
should remain alert to changing weather forecast. Should conditions
change...Look for river forecast or Flood Warnings for use in

&&

ARC149-061720-
/O.EXT.KLZK.FL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-150307T2000Z/
/DANA4.1.ER.150305T2330Z.150306T0600Z.150306T1400Z.NO/
820 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...Flood Warning extended until Saturday afternoon...The Flood
Warning continues for
  The Petit Jean River At Danville.
* until Saturday afternoon...Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  8:15 PM Thursday the stage was 20.1 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 20.2 feet
  overnight. The river will fall below flood stage late Friday
  morning.
* Impacts at 20.0 feet...Minor flooding begins, agricultural lands along
  the river begin to flood.

&&


             Fld     Observed                 Forecast 7 AM
Location     Stg   Stg  Day Time    Fri    Sat    Sun    Mon    Tue

Petit Jean River
  Danville    20  20.0 Thu 06 PM   20.1   16.0   12.8   11.6    11.4


&&


LAT...LON 3507 9305 3505 9327 3502 9343 3509 9342
 3513 9328 3514 9313



$$

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
740 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

TXC037-067-343-070140-
/O.CON.KSHV.FL.W.0024.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/NAPT2.1.ER.000000T0000Z.150309T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
740 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

The flood warning continues for
  the Sulphur River Near Naples Texas.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 710 AM Thursday the stage was 24.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 22 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 26.5 feet by
  Monday evening then begin falling.
* Impact...Minor lowland flooding of the boat ramp.

&&

LAT...LON 3331 9466 3328 9456 3330 9447 3324 9462 3326 9466

$$

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
740 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

TXC159-343-387-449-070140-
/O.EXT.KSHV.FL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-150308T0627Z/
/TLCT2.1.ER.150305T0439Z.150305T2145Z.150307T1227Z.NO/
740 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

The flood warning continues for
  the Sulphur River Below Talco Texas.
* until late Saturday night...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 615 PM Thursday the stage was 23.2 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 20 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by
  Saturday morning.  Also the Sulphur River will crest very near
  23.2 feet during the remainder of this Thursday evening through early
  Friday morning.
* Impact...at 25.0 feet...Expect moderate flooding of lowland areas
  with some secondary roadways closed. All cattle and equipment
  nearby the river should be moved to higher ground.

&&

LAT...LON 3338 9530 3341 9488 3331 9466 3326 9466 3331 9478

$$


Special Weather Statement


SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
512 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-061600-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALTHEIMER...AMITY...ARKADELPHIA...
ARKANSAS CITY...ASH FLAT...AUGUSTA...AVILLA...BATESVILLE...
BAUXITE...BEARDEN...BEE BRANCH...BEEBE...BENTON...BISMARCK...
BONNERDALE...BOONEVILLE...BRINKLEY...BRYANT...BULL SHOALS...
CABOT...CALICO ROCK...CAMDEN...CAVE CITY...CENTER RIDGE...
CHIDESTER...CLARENDON...CLARKSVILLE...CLINTON...CONWAY...
COTTON PLANT...DANVILLE...DARDANELLE...DE VALLS BLUFF...DE WITT...
DEER...DES ARC...DONALDSON...DRASCO...DUMAS...EL PASO...ENGLAND...
FAIRFIELD BAY...FLIPPIN...FORDYCE...FOURCHE JUNCTION...
GASSVILLE...GEORGETOWN...GILLETT...GLENWOOD...GOULD...GRADY...
GRAVELLY...GREENBRIER...GREERS FERRY...GURDON...HAMPTON...HARDY...
HARRISON...HASKELL...HAZEN...HEBER SPRINGS...HECTOR...HERMITAGE...
HORSESHOE BEND...HOT SPRINGS...HOT SPRINGS VILLAGE...HOUSTON...
HUMNOKE...HUMPHREY...JACKSONVILLE...JASPER...JESSIEVILLE...
KINGSLAND...LACEY...LEAD HILL...LEOLA...LESLIE...LITTLE ROCK...
LONOKE...MALVERN...MAMMOTH SPRING...MARSHALL...MAUMELLE...
MAYFLOWER...MCCRORY...MCGEHEE...MELBOURNE...MENA...MONTICELLO...
MORO BAY...MORRILTON...MOUNT IDA...MOUNT MAGAZINE...
MOUNTAIN HOME...MOUNTAIN VIEW...MURFREESBORO...NEWPORT...
NORFORK...NORMAN...NORTH LITTLE ROCK...OIL TROUGH...OKOLONA...
OLA...OMAHA...OXFORD...OZONE...PARIS...PARON...PELSOR...
PERRYVILLE...PINE BLUFF...PINE RIDGE...PLEASANT PLAINS...POYEN...
PRATTSVILLE...REDFIELD...RISON...ROHWER...ROSE BUD...
RUSSELLVILLE...SALEM...SEARCY...SHERIDAN...SHERWOOD...STAR CITY...
STEPHENS...STUTTGART...SUMMIT...SWIFTON...THORNTON...TUCKERMAN...
VILONIA...VIOLA...WALDRON...WARREN...WESTERN GROVE...WICKES...
WRIGHTSVILLE...Y CITY...YELLVILLE
512 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

...ICY ROADS THIS MORNING...

AFTER ALL OF THE SNOW AND SLEET WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
THE SUN CAME OUT THURSDAY AND THE MERCURY CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS MUCH OF ARKANSAS. THAT LED TO MELTING AND ROADS BECAME WET.
TEMPERATURES PLUMMETED AFTER THE SUN WENT DOWN...WITH READINGS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S EARLY THIS MORNING...AND SOME SINGLE DIGITS
IN THE NORTHEAST. WATER ON ROADS TURNED TO ICE.

MANY ROADS ACROSS ARKANSAS HAVE A THIN LAYER OF ICE...OR AT LEAST
PATCHES OF ICE. IT IS NOT RESTRICTED TO BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. THE
ICE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO SEE WHILE DRIVING...AND WILL MAKE THE
PAVEMENT LOOK WET. GIVEN HOW COLD IT IS...THAT WET APPEARANCE IS
ACTUALLY ICE IN MANY CASES.

THIS COLD WEATHER IS SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL FOR MARCH. TEMPERATURES ARE
WELL BELOW NORMAL...AND LOWS THIS MORNING WILL BREAK DAILY RECORDS
AT MANY LOCATIONS.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER DAY WITH FULL
SUNSHINE...AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING AGAIN.
ICY ROADS WILL BECOME WET LATER THIS MORNING...AND TRAVEL WILL
NOT BE AS HAZARDOUS. EVEN SO...HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S...AND READINGS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S.

FOR THOSE HEADED OUT THIS MORNING...PLEASE BE CAREFUL. IF
MOTORISTS NOTICE PAVEMENT THAT LOOKS WET...ASSUME IT IS ICE
AND SLOW DOWN. ALLOW PLENTY OF TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION
SAFELY.

$$

46


Hazardous Weather Outlook


HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
509 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-071115-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
509 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44.
ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...
OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WINDS WILL GUST 15 TO 20 MPH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY BETWEEN 30 AND 40
PERCENT. THAT WILL RESULT IN A LIMITED FIRE DANGER
THREAT...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. OTHERWISE...THE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET AND DRY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
450 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-071100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
450 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED EXCESSIVE COLD RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILL VALUES WILL EXIST IN SOME AREAS OF
  THE REGION THROUGH AROUND 8 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

  NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

$$

CRAMER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-071100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MANY ROADS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS THIS MORNING...AS ANY MELTING THAT
OCCURRED THURSDAY REFROZE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM
ABOVE FREEZING...BUT ALL AREAS WILL FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING
TONIGHT. EXTRA CAUTION SHOULD BE USED BY MOTORISTS DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL OF BLACK ICE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

$$

58


Hydrologic Outlook


HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
OKC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-019-027-029-031-033-039-043-045-047-
049-051-053-055-057-059-063-065-067-069-071-073-075-081-083-085-087-
093-095-099-103-109-119-123-125-129-133-137-141-149-151-153-TXC009-
023-077-155-197-275-485-487-061200-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
430 PM CST THU MAR 05 2015

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOOD CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS SPRING.
FLOODING IN THIS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS USUALLY OCCURS IN RESPONSE
TO SPECIFIC PRECIPITATION EVENTS. HOWEVER, THE RED RIVER AND OTHER
LARGER RIVERS MAY FLOOD IN RESPONSE TO MORE WIDESPREAD UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS. MANY CURRENT HYDROLOGIC INDICATORS REFLECT AN ONGOING
DROUGHT THAT HAS GRIPPED THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR SEVERAL YEARS. THE
WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
DRIER FOR THE LAST YEAR AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE WORSENED IN
THESE AREAS.

PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR THE LAST 90 DAYS ARE BELOW AVERAGE TO WELL-
BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS MOST OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THERE
ARE WIDESPREAD AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED LESS THAN 75 PERCENT-OF-
AVERAGE PRECIPITATION. LARGE, SCATTERED AREAS THROUGHOUT OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS HAVE RECEIVED LESS THAN 50 PERCENT-OF-
AVERAGE RAINFALL IN THE LAST 90 DAYS.

STREAM AND RIVER DISCHARGES AT MOST LOCATIONS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF
OKLAHOMA ARE BELOW NORMAL TO WELL-BELOW NORMAL. WIDESPREAD AREAS OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA ARE EXPERIENCING STREAMFLOWS BELOW THE 10TH
PERCENTILE.  STREAMFLOWS IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY ABOVE LAKE TEXOMA
IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS ARE SHOWING THE
EFFECTS OF THE LONG-TERM DROUGHT.  DISCHARGES IN THIS AREA ARE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 PERCENT-OF-AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
CURRENTLY REFLECT THE LONG-TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS THAT HAVE
DOMINATED THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WESTERN OKLAHOMA IS PLAGUED BY BELOW-
NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE WITH VALUES BETWEEN THE 20TH AND 30TH
PERCENTILES. SOIL MOISTURE IS GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL FOR WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS, WITH CONDITIONS BETWEEN THE 30TH AND 70TH PERCENTILES
OF HISTORICAL CONDITIONS.

RESERVOIR STORAGE IN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS CURRENTLY
VARIES BETWEEN THE STRUCTURES IN THE ARKANSAS RIVER SYSTEM AND THOSE
IN THE RED RIVER SYSTEM.  U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS PROJECTS IN
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS, ESPECIALLY THOSE IN THE
RED RIVER SYSTEM ARE EXTREMELY DRY AND HAVE A GREAT DEAL OF FLOOD
CONTROL STORAGE AVAILABLE. IN THE AGGREGATE, THE RESERVOIRS IN
OKLAHOMA HAVE 110 PERCENT OF THEIR FLOOD CONTROL STORAGE AVAILABLE
AT THIS TIME.  AVAILABLE CAPACITY IN THE ARKANSAS SYSTEM IS
APPROXIMATELY 108 PERCENT OF DESIGNED FLOOD CONTROL STORAGE.
AVAILABLE CAPACITY IN THE RED RIVER SYSTEM IS APPROXIMATELY 114
PERCENT OF DESIGN FLOOD CONTROL STORAGE.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER`S (CPC) SEASONAL OUTLOOK (MAR-APR-MAY)
CALLS FOR INCREASED CHANCES (33%-40%) OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MOST OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE OUTLOOK ALSO
CALL FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL, BELOW-NORMAL, AND NEAR-
NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER, THE OUTLOOK
CALLS FOR INCREASED CHANCES (33%-40%) OF ABOVE-NORMAL RAINFALL FOR
THE UPPER RED RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR OF FEBRUARY 24, 2015 INDICATES THAT AREAS
IN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS ARE EXPERIENCING ABNORMALLY DRY
(D0) TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) CONDITIONS. ABNORMALLY DRY (D0) OR
MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) CONDITIONS DOMINATE NEAR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL PARTS OF OKLAHOMA. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO WORSEN WESTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION AND REACH EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) CONDITIONS IN
PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE CPC U.S.
SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK OF FEBRUARY 19, 2015 INDICATES DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS SHOULD
PERSIST OR INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT THREE MONTHS.

THANKS TO THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY, THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF
ENGINEERS, OKLAHOMA WATER RESOURCES BOARD, AND OTHER FEDERAL, STATE
AND LOCAL GROUPS FOR STREAMFLOW AND RESERVOIR DATA, AND THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS,
THE SOIL MOISTURE DEFICITS, AND THE DROUGHT OUTLOOK.

FOR THE LATEST RIVER STAGE INFORMATION, FORECAST, AND WARNINGS
PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT:

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN

RIVER STAGE AND FORECAST DATA CAN BE OBTAINED BY SELECTING THE
RIVERS/LAKES LINK UNDER THE CURRENT WEATHER SECTION.


$$

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
ARC001-005-009-011-013-019-023-025-029-031-039-041-043-045-049-05
1-053-055-059-063-065-067-069-071-079-083-085-089-095-097-
099-101-103-105-109-113-115-117-119-125-127-129-135-137-141-145-1
47-149-070600-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
400 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS A
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA WHICH IS WHOLLY LOCATED WITHIN THE STATE OF
ARKANSAS. IT ENCOMPASSES AN AREA WHICH INCLUDES THE WHITE RIVER AND
TRIBUTARIES FROM BULL SHOALS DAM DOWNSTREAM...THE ARKANSAS RIVER AND
TRIBUTARIES FROM DARDANELLE DOWNSTREAM...AND THE OUACHITA
RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES FROM THE HEADWATERS TO THE UPPER BOUNDARY OF
THE FELSENTHAL NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE. ALONG WITH THE MAIN STEM OF
THESE RIVERS...IT ALSO INCLUDES TRIBUTARIES WITH FORECAST LOCATIONS
ON THE CACHE...BLACK...SPRING...SALINE...PETIT JEAN...FOURCHE
LAFAVE...LITTLE MISSOURI...BUFFALO...LITTLE RED...AND ELEVEN POINT
RIVERS.

EXISTING CONDITIONS...

RAINFALL - PRECIPITATION TOTALS DURING THE LAST 90 DAYS FOR ARKANSAS
HAVE BEEN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. WIDESPREAD AREAS IN
NORTHWESTERN AND EASTERN ARKANSAS ARE WELL BELOW AVERAGE. ONLY IN
THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE DO 90-DAY TOTALS APPROACH
OR EXCEED THE AVERAGE.

SNOWPACK - SNOWPACK ESTIMATES FROM THE NATIONAL OPERATIONS
HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC) INDICATE A LIGHT TO MEDIUM
SNOWPACK IN ARKANSAS. DENSEST SNOWPACK RESIDES IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE WHITE RIVER BASIN. ALTHOUGH THIS
SNOWMELT WILL LIKELY PROLONG MINOR FLOODING TO THIS AREA IN THE
SHORT TERM IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT WITH
REGARD TO SPRING FLOODING.

SOIL MOISTURE - SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS IN ARKANSAS ARE GENERALLY
NEAR NORMAL...WITH ESTIMATES BETWEEN THE 30TH AND 70TH PERCENTILE.
WITH THE CURRENT SNOWPACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE...MELTING WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE THE GROUND WATER SUPPLY. IF HEAVY RAIN WAS TO OCCUR
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS...RUNOFF WOULD BE ELEVATED.

RIVER FLOWS AND RESERVOIRS - STREAMFLOWS WERE GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL
THIS WINTER UNTIL THIS LAST HEAVY RAIN/SNOW EVENT WHICH TEMPORARILY
BROUGHT STREAMFLOWS UP INTO THE 76TH TO 90TH PERCENTILE. THIS EARLY
SPRING WINTER EVENT BROUGHT MINOR FLOODING TO THE
BLACK...WHITE...CACHE...AND OUACHITA RIVERS WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO
MID MARCH. CORPS OF ENGINEERS PROJECTS IN ARKANSAS ARE AT LEVELS
APPROXIMATING DESIGN CONDITIONS WITH NEAR 100 PERCENT OF THEIR FLOOD
CONTROL CAPACITY AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME.

WHITE RIVER BASIN...

PRECIPITATION AND SNOW MELT HAS LED TO MINOR RISES ALONG RIVERS IN
THE BLACK AND WHITE RIVER BASINS. OVERALL SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS
NORMAL BUT WITH RECENT PRECIPITATION MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 WEEKS ON THE BLACK...LOWER WHITE RIVER
AND CACHE RIVERS IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS.

BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS...AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED OVER THE
BLACK AND WHITE BASINS. PERCENT OF AVAILABLE FLOOD CONTROL STORAGE
IS GIVEN BELOW.

                                            2/18   3/4
                     BULL SHOALS RES. AR    100%  100%
                         NORFORK RES. AR    100%  100%
                    GREERS FERRY RES. AR    100%  100%


ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN...

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOOD CONDITIONS IN WESTERN ARKANSAS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL THIS SPRING. FLOODING IN WESTERN ARKANSAS USUALLY OCCURS IN
RESPONSE TO SPECIFIC PRECIPITATION EVENTS. HOWEVER...THE ARKANSAS
RIVER MAY FLOOD IN RESPONSE TO MORE WIDESPREAD UPSTREAM CONDITIONS.
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO INDICATIONS OF EXTREME HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS
TO ALTER THE FLOOD POTENTIAL OF THE AREA.

CORPS OF ENGINEERS PROJECTS ARE AT LEVELS APPROXIMATING DESIGN
CONDITIONS. THEY HAVE APPROXIMATELY 99 PERCENT OF THEIR FLOOD
CONTROL CAPACITY AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. STREAMFLOWS ALONG THE
ARKANSAS RIVER ARE NEAR TO JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
CONDITIONS...WITH THE TRIBUTARIES ABOVE AVERAGE ON ACCOUNT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL EARLIER THIS WEEK. OBSERVED FLOW ALONG THE LOWER ARKANSAS
RIVER IS CURRENTLY NEAR 25000 CFS WHICH IS 33% OF NORMAL COMPARED TO
THE LONG TERM AVERAGE OF 76000 CFS FOR EARLY MARCH.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTERS SEASONAL OUTLOOK (MAR-APR-MAY) CALLS
FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL...BELOW-NORMAL...AND NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE-MEDIAN...BELOW-MEDIAN...AND NEAR-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR OF FEBRUARY 24TH 2015 INDICATES
NORTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS ARE EXPERIENCING ABNORMALLY
DRY (D0) CONDITIONS BUT CALLS FOR NO INTENSIFICATION OF DROUGHT
CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT THREE MONTHS.

OUACHITA RIVER BASIN...

STREAMFLOWS ARE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL IN ARKANSAS. SOIL MOISTURE
CONTENT IS NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL AND DUE TO RECENT SNOW AND
RAINFALL MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST AND/OR OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER OUACHITA. OBSERVED DAILY STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF
MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW.

                                             3/4
OUACHITA RIVER                 CAMDEN AR    282%
OUACHITA RIVER                 MONROE LA    143%

BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS...AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED OVER THE
OUACHITA BASIN. PERCENT OF AVAILABLE RESERVOIR FLOOD CONTROL
STORAGE IS GIVEN BELOW.


                                            3/4
                        LAKE OUACHITA AR    100%
                          DEGRAY RES. AR    100%
                         LAKE GREESON AR    100%

METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK...

THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
INDICATES SLIGHT CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE 30-DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW...AND
NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER ARKANSAS WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR THE OHIO AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.
THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK INDICATES HIGHER CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE ENTIRE MID SOUTH.

THE 90-DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES OF NORMAL...ABOVE
NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS REGION. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER ARKANSAS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

CONCLUSION...

THROUGH MID MARCH MINOR FLOODING WILL PERSIST AS THE SNOWPACKS
ACROSS THE STATE MELTS. THE SATURATED SOILS FROM THE LINGERING
SNOWMELT WILL PRODUCE HIGHER RUNOFF WITH ANY WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. THIS SHOULD
KEEP STREAMFLOW SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
SPRING.

BY APRIL/MAY...EXPECT THE NORMAL PERIODS OF HIGHLY CONVECTIVE SEVERE
WEATHER AND ASSOCIATED HIGH QUANTITIES OF RAINFALL OCCURRING
PERIODICALLY IN A SHORT PERIOD AND OVER SMALLER WATERSHEDS. ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE NO STRONG INDICATORS THAT SUGGEST AN OVERLY WET OR
SEVERELY DRY SPRING...ANY LOCALIZED HIGH INTENSITY RAINFALL CAN
CREATE FLASH FLOODING AT ANY TIME. THIS SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL
OUTLOOK DEFINES LONG TERM RIVER FLOODING...AND DOES NOT ASSESS THE
RISK OF SHORT TERM FLOODING.

THE SPRING POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IS A ROUTINE PRODUCT. SHOULD EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL BECOME PART OF THE FORECAST AT ANY OTHER TIME OF THE
YEAR...A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED WITH EVENT SPECIFIC
INFORMATION. ALSO LOOK FOR RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES OR FLOOD WATCHES.
IT IS VERY IMPORTANT TO REMAIN SITUATIONALLY AWARE.

FOR THE LATEST RIVER STAGE INFORMATION...FORECAST...AND WARNINGS
PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT:

HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LZK

RIVER STAGE AND FORECAST DATA CAN BE OBTAINED BY SELECTING THE
RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS LINK UNDER THE CURRENT CONDITIONS SECTION.

$$

61

U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 2, 2009
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