Flood Warning
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA
843 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
LOUISIANA...
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT RED RIVER LANDING AFFECTING EAST BATON
ROUGE...POINTE COUPEE AND WEST FELICIANA PARISHES
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT BATON ROUGE AFFECTING EAST BATON ROUGE AND
WEST BATON ROUGE PARISHES
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
FORECAST CRESTS ARE BASED UPON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED ALONG WITH
ANTICIPATED RAIN FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECASTS
WILL BE MADE IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS.
DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. REMEMBER...TWO FEET OF
RUSHING WATER CAN CARRY AWAY MOST VEHICLES INCLUDING PICKUPS. TURN
AROUND AND DON`T DROWN.
A FOLLOWUP PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATER. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE PROVIDER...FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION. THE LATEST GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV.
&&
LAC033-077-125-210743-
/O.CON.KLIX.FL.W.0094.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/RRLL1.1.ER.130502T0035Z.130521T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
843 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT RED RIVER LANDING.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 7:00 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 52.4 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 48.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 52.5 FEET BY
MONDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 51.0 FEET...ALL RIVER ISLANDS ALONG THE REACH FROM RED
RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE WILL BE INUNDATED. RECREATIONAL CAMPS
AND RIVER BOTTOM FARM LAND WILL BE UNDER WATER.
* IMPACT...AT 48.0 FEET...ACCESS ROADS WILL BE INUNDATED AND
EVACUATION OF ALL RIVER ISLANDS MUST BE COMPLETE. PROTECTION OF
PEOPLE AND PROPERTY IN THE RIVER BOTTOM LAND ON THE RIVER SIDE OF
THE LEVEES MUST BE COMPLETE
* IMPACT...AT 46.0 FEET...RIVER TRAFFIC WILL BECOME DANGEROUS. A LEVEE
CREVASSE WOULD FLOOD ADJACENT FARM LAND. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF
RACCOURCI ISLAND WILL CONTINUE AND EVACUATION OF THE ISLAND IS
RECOMMENDED
* IMPACT...AT 45.0 FEET...BETWEEN THE 40 AND 45 FOOT STAGE FLOODING OF
RACCOURCI ISLAND BECOMES SIGNIFICANT. AT THE 45 FOOT STAGE
EVACUATION OF THE ISLAND IS RECOMMENDED
$$
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
840 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
ARKANSAS...LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI..
MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR GREENVILLE AFFECTING CHICOT...EAST
CARROLL...ISSAQUENA AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT VICKSBURG AFFECTING MADISON...TENSAS...
CLAIBORNE...JEFFERSON AND WARREN COUNTIES/PARISHES
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT NATCHEZ AFFECTING CONCORDIA...ADAMS AND
WILKINSON COUNTIES/PARISHES
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
DO NOT DRIVE OR WALK THROUGH AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS ROADWAYS! THE
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS. PLEASE USE EXTREME CAUTION IF
VENTURING NEAR RIVERBANKS. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY SHOULD
RISING WATER THREATEN YOUR SAFETY. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND, DON`T
DROWN!
THE FORECASTS ARE BASED ON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED AND THAT WHICH
IS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS FOR ALL SITES BUT TIBBEE
CREEK...LUXAPALLILA CREEK...NOXUBEE RIVER...AND THE TOMBIGEE RIVER
WHERE 48 HOURS OF FORECAST RAINFALL ARE ROUTINELY USED.
THE NEXT REGULARLY SCHEDULED UPDATE IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM.
&&
ARC017-LAC035-MSC055-151-210740-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.W.0106.000000T0000Z-130524T0300Z/
/GEEM6.1.ER.130513T0035Z.130519T1100Z.130523T1200Z.NO/
840 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR GREENVILLE
* UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING.
* AT 8:00 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 48.8 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 48.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL REMAIN STEADY OVER THE NEXT DAY THEN
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 48.0 FEET...WATER BEGINS TO COVER THE DIRT ROAD LEADING
TO THE FARMERS GRAIN TERMINAL FACILITY WHICH IS NORTH OF THE NEW
GREENVILLE BRIDGE.
&&
FLOOD OBSERVED FORECAST 6AM CREST
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME MON TUE WED CREST TIME DATE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
GREENVILLE 48 48.8 SUN 08 PM 48.8 48.7 48.4 CRESTING
$$
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
840 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
ARKANSAS...LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI..
MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR GREENVILLE AFFECTING CHICOT...EAST
CARROLL...ISSAQUENA AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT VICKSBURG AFFECTING MADISON...TENSAS...
CLAIBORNE...JEFFERSON AND WARREN COUNTIES/PARISHES
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT NATCHEZ AFFECTING CONCORDIA...ADAMS AND
WILKINSON COUNTIES/PARISHES
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
DO NOT DRIVE OR WALK THROUGH AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS ROADWAYS! THE
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS. PLEASE USE EXTREME CAUTION IF
VENTURING NEAR RIVERBANKS. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY SHOULD
RISING WATER THREATEN YOUR SAFETY. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND, DON`T
DROWN!
THE FORECASTS ARE BASED ON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED AND THAT WHICH
IS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS FOR ALL SITES BUT TIBBEE
CREEK...LUXAPALLILA CREEK...NOXUBEE RIVER...AND THE TOMBIGEE RIVER
WHERE 48 HOURS OF FORECAST RAINFALL ARE ROUTINELY USED.
THE NEXT REGULARLY SCHEDULED UPDATE IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM.
&&
LAC029-MSC001-157-210740-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.W.0089.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/NTZM6.1.ER.130506T1830Z.130520T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
840 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT NATCHEZ
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 8:00 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 50.4 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 48.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 50.4 FEET BY
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THEN REMAIN STEADY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
* IMPACT...AT 48.0 FEET...CARTHAGE POINT ROAD BECOMES IMPASSABLE.
&&
FLOOD OBSERVED FORECAST 6AM CREST
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME MON TUE WED CREST TIME DATE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
NATCHEZ 48 50.4 SUN 08 PM 50.4 50.4 50.4 NEAR CREST
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
840 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
ARKANSAS...LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI..
MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR GREENVILLE AFFECTING CHICOT...EAST
CARROLL...ISSAQUENA AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT VICKSBURG AFFECTING MADISON...TENSAS...
CLAIBORNE...JEFFERSON AND WARREN COUNTIES/PARISHES
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT NATCHEZ AFFECTING CONCORDIA...ADAMS AND
WILKINSON COUNTIES/PARISHES
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
DO NOT DRIVE OR WALK THROUGH AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS ROADWAYS! THE
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS. PLEASE USE EXTREME CAUTION IF
VENTURING NEAR RIVERBANKS. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY SHOULD
RISING WATER THREATEN YOUR SAFETY. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND, DON`T
DROWN!
THE FORECASTS ARE BASED ON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED AND THAT WHICH
IS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS FOR ALL SITES BUT TIBBEE
CREEK...LUXAPALLILA CREEK...NOXUBEE RIVER...AND THE TOMBIGEE RIVER
WHERE 48 HOURS OF FORECAST RAINFALL ARE ROUTINELY USED.
THE NEXT REGULARLY SCHEDULED UPDATE IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM.
&&
LAC065-107-MSC021-063-149-210740-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.W.0107.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/VCKM6.1.ER.130511T1734Z.130519T1400Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
840 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT VICKSBURG
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 8:00 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 44.2 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 43.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL REMAIN STEADY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
THEN CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
* IMPACT...AT 44.6 FEET...RESIDENCE ON WILLIAMS STREET IN VICKSBURG
BEGINS TO FLOOD.
* IMPACT...AT 44.0 FEET...FORD AND KINGS SUBDIVISION AT PITTMAN ROAD
AND MARY`S ALLEY BEGINS TO FLOOD.
&&
FLOOD OBSERVED FORECAST 6AM CREST
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME MON TUE WED CREST TIME DATE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VICKSBURG 43 44.2 SUN 08 PM 44.2 44.2 44.1 CRESTING
$$
Flood Advisory
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
849 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
...THE FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...
AT TIPTONVILLE AFFECTING PEMISCOT AND LAKE
COUNTIES
AT MEMPHIS AFFECTING CRITTENDEN...DESOTO AND
SHELBY COUNTIES
AT HELENA AFFECTING LEE...PHILLIPS...COAHOMA AND
TUNICA COUNTIES
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE NEXT RIVER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED MONDAY.
FOR GRAPHICAL RIVER AND FLOOD INFORMATION...PLEASE GO TO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK NEAR MEMPHIS ON THE MAP. THEN SELECT RIVERS
AND LAKES AHPS UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS.
DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...TURN AROUND DON`T DROWN.
STAY TUNED TO YOUR WEATHER RADIO AND YOUR LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR THE
LATEST RIVER INFORMATION.
&&
ARC077-107-MSC027-143-210149-
/O.CON.KMEG.FL.Y.0033.000000T0000Z-130521T2232Z/
/HEEA4.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
849 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
THE FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT HELENA
* UNTIL TUESDAY MAY 21.
* AT 8 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 42.1 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 44.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE A SLOW FALL.
$$
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
842 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
...THE FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...
MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR ARKANSAS CITY AFFECTING CHICOT...DESHA...
BOLIVAR AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES
ARC017-041-MSC011-151-210742-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-130525T2200Z/
/ARSA4.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
842 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
THE FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR ARKANSAS CITY.
* UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 8:00 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 36.8 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 37.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE TO NEAR 36.8 FEET MONDAY MAY 20.
* IMPACT...AT 37.0 FEET...THE LOW SILT PLAIN IN FRONT OF ARKANSAS CITY
INSIDE THE LEVEE SYSTEM BEGINS TO FLOOD ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD
BOTTOMLAND FLOODING AT HUNTINGTON POINT MISSISSIPPI.
&&
FLOOD OBSERVED FORECAST 6AM CREST
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME MON TUE WED CREST TIME DATE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ARKANSAS CITY 37 36.8 SUN 08 PM 36.8 36.6 36.2 CRESTING
Lake Wind Advisory
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
832 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
ARZ050-051-059-060-070-071-LAZ001-002-010-011-017-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-201200-
/O.CON.KSHV.LW.Y.0025.130520T1500Z-130521T0000Z/
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-CADDO-
BOSSIER-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-SABINE LA-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-
TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON-
CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-
SABINE TX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE QUEEN...NASHVILLE...ASHDOWN...HOPE...
TEXARKANA...LEWISVILLE...SHREVEPORT...BOSSIER CITY...MANSFIELD...
COUSHATTA...MANY...IDABEL...CLARKSVILLE...MT VERNON...
MT PLEASANT...PITTSBURG...DAINGERFIELD...ATLANTA...QUITMAN...
GILMER...JEFFERSON...TYLER...LONGVIEW...MARSHALL...RUSK...
HENDERSON...CARTHAGE...NACOGDOCHES...CENTER...LUFKIN...
SAN AUGUSTINE...HEMPHILL
832 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
...LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT
MONDAY...
* EVENT...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY. SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10 TO 15 MPH AFTER
SUNRISE WILL INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 MPH DURING THE DAY WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 30 MPH AT TIMES.
* TIMING...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS BY MID MORNING MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
* IMPACT...STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE A ROUGH CHOP AND POTENTIALLY
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH CHOP
ON AREA LAKES. SMALL BOATS WILL BE PRONE TO CAPSIZING.
&&
$$
13
Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1108 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1108 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...CRITICAL.
AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.
FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...ONGOING.
HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...ONGOING.
DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. LARGE HAIL
UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MILES AN HOUR WILL BE
THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. HOWEVER...WIND PROFILES ALSO
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
DISCRETE STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL ALSO RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT.
SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS RESIDES OVER THE REGION...AND
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PRESENT FROM
THE STORMS THAT OCCUR TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR
ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...HIGH INSTABILITY...AND STRONG WINDS
ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...EXTREMELY
LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TUESDAY ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT...THOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EVOLVES ON MONDAY. MOST LIKELY THE HIGHER
SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL SHIFT INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE WEAK FRONT. HEAVY
RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING WILL BECOME AN INCREASING ISSUE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK ON WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS THE
STORMS DEVELOP ON THE HIGH PLAINS AND MOVE INTO THE REGION ON THE
TAIL END OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WEAKER BY
THIS TIME HOWEVER...SUGGESTING A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AT BEST.
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
HIGH END SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS. FIRST RESPONDERS AND DAMAGE RESPONSE WILL NEED TO BE IN
CLOSE COORDINATION WITH THE ONGOING WEATHER SITUATION AS MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER ARE EXPECTED.
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
$$
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
959 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-201000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
959 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT...
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 1 AM ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE.
DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AROUND MID-EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS THROUGH 1 AM. A FEW OF THE STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND
WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO END ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT MONDAY MAY 20.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...30 PERCENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF OKLAHOMA. THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 5 AM
MONDAY.
$$
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
315 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-201230-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
315 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE
TO GOLDTHWAITE THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS MAY REACH AREAS AS FAR
EAST AS COMMERCE...ARLINGTON AND HAMILTON THIS EVENING. ANY
STORMS THAT FORM WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED
TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL WORK EASTWARD OVER MUCH OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY NIGHT. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A LAMPASAS TO ATHENS LINE.
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF A SHERMAN TO WEATHERFORD AND
COMANCHE LINE.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY NORTH OF I-20 AND WEST OF I-35 AND 35 EAST.
$$
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1225 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-201100-
ANGELINA-BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-BOWIE-CADDO-CALDWELL-CAMP-CASS-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-COLUMBIA-DE SOTO-FRANKLIN-GRANT-GREGG-HARRISON-HEMPSTEAD-
HOWARD-JACKSON-LA SALLE-LAFAYETTE-LINCOLN-LITTLE RIVER-MARION-
MCCURTAIN-MILLER-MORRIS-NACOGDOCHES-NATCHITOCHES-NEVADA-OUACHITA-
PANOLA-RED RIVER LA-RED RIVER TX-RUSK-SABINE LA-SABINE TX-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SEVIER-SHELBY-SMITH-TITUS-UNION AR-UNION LA-UPSHUR-
WEBSTER-WINN-WOOD-
1225 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND THE ADJACENT SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EAST INTO PORTIONS
OF EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS MONDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE
FARTHER WEST...ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY
EVENING. THEY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
AS THEY ENTER EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL LEAVE BEHIND CONVECTIVE
BOUNDARIES...WHICH COULD FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHEN DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY
IS MAXIMIZED...AND LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASES FROM AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. AN ORGANIZED
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SHIFT
EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGER STORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND DEADLY LIGHTNING WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. THE COMPLEX IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS
AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA ON WEDNESDAY.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS...AND STORM SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON
OR TONIGHT.
$$
06
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
900 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-201000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
900 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...DURING THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS
ACTIVITY THAT FORMS TO THE WEST MOVES EAST AND NORTHEAST FROM
OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF ARKANSAS. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHWEST. THE PRIMARY THREAT OF ANY SEVERE STORM WOULD BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A LARGE AND POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE STATE
FOR MONDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...REMAINING TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...AND
ESPECIALLY THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY ACROSS FAR
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF ARKANSAS. THESE AREAS OF THE STATE WILL
HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEEING ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...WITH TORNADOES ALSO A POSSIBILITY.
THIS LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
INCREASING. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD. LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN SPOTS...ESPECIALLY WITH
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...A
COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO THE STATE LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. THIS FRONT COULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS
WEATHER LOOKS LIMITED AT THIS TIME THIS FAR OUT.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
NIGHT...AND AGAIN AREA-WIDE FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
$$
62/59
Short Term Forecast
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1111 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-200530-
BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-
PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE-
TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-WAGONER-
CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-PITTSBURG-HASKELL-
LATIMER-LE FLORE-
1111 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.NOW...
AT 11:11 PM...DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST CRAIG COUNTY THROUGH
NORTHERN OSAGE COUNTY...WITH A FEW ISOLATED CELLS TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE MAIN BAND OF STORMS.
THROUGH 12:30 AM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WITH THE BULK OF ACTIVITY CONFINED TO
AREAS NORTHWEST OF 44. WHILE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND
GUSTS WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE...LOCALIZED FLOOD POTENTIAL ALSO
EXISTS ACROSS THESE AREAS WITH TRAINING STORMS.
A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS UNTIL 6 AM CDT MONDAY MORNING.
$$
