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Hazardous Weather Outlook


HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
500 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-011000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
500 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASES THURSDAY...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44.
ONSET...AFTER MIDNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
KANSAS IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 44...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THERE IS A
LIMITED RISK OF AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44
CORRIDOR. A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE BEFORE THE STORMS BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY MID MORNING.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...WITH
SOME SEVERE RISK DUE TO INCREASING INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.

A GREATER THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND INTO NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.
INSTABILITY AND BOTH LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED TORNADO. THE THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE WEATHER THREATS
SHOULD DIMINISH SUBSTANTIALLY BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING AS DRIER
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THEREAFTER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
$$

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
313 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-012015-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
313 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST
  KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. NO SEVERE
  STORMS ARE EXPECTED...AND MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY
  TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

  STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
  HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING
  AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION.

  AN EPISODE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO
  THURSDAY EVENING. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND
  TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS.

  WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND
  THURSDAY...THERE IS A LIMITED RISK FOR FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

$$

CRAMER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1118 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-011630-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA-
NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-
FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-
HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
1118 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. HOWEVER...NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
HEAT CONTINUES TO BUILD AND SOUTHERLY WINDS HELP TO INCREASE SEA
BREEZE ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THEN BY LATE THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR STATE
AREA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AREA WIDE. A FEW STORMS
MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
HOWEVER...NO WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS AND STORM SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

$$

12


Short Term Forecast


SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
649 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>005-010>013-017>020-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-010200-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-DE SOTO-
RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-SABINE LA-NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-
MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-
MARION-SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-
SHELBY-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE QUEEN...NASHVILLE...ASHDOWN...HOPE...
PRESCOTT...TEXARKANA...LEWISVILLE...MAGNOLIA...EL DORADO...
SHREVEPORT...BOSSIER CITY...MINDEN...HOMER...RUSTON...MANSFIELD...
COUSHATTA...BIENVILLE...JONESBORO...MANY...NATCHITOCHES...
WINNFIELD...COLFAX...IDABEL...CLARKSVILLE...MT VERNON...
MT PLEASANT...PITTSBURG...DAINGERFIELD...ATLANTA...QUITMAN...
GILMER...JEFFERSON...TYLER...LONGVIEW...MARSHALL...RUSK...
HENDERSON...CARTHAGE...NACOGDOCHES...CENTER...LUFKIN...
SAN AUGUSTINE...HEMPHILL
649 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.NOW...
ISOLATED SHOWERS OF BRIEF LIGHT RAIN...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT.
MOVEMENT IS TO THE NORTHEAST.

$$
25

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Page last modified: June 2, 2009
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