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Flood Warning


FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1113 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

TXC423-499-201613-
/O.EXT.KSHV.FL.W.0083.000000T0000Z-150422T0300Z/
/MLAT2.1.ER.150418T1045Z.150420T1200Z.150421T0900Z.NO/
1113 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

The flood warning continues for
  the Sabine River Near Mineola.
* until Tuesday evening...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 10:15 AM Sunday The stage was 13.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by this evening and continue to
  rise to near 14.4 feet BY tomorrow morning. The river will fall
  below flood stage by Tuesday morning.
* Impact...at 14.0 feet...Expect flooding of secondary roadways with
  picnic and recreational areas flooded as well.

&&

LAT...LON 3278 9574 3263 9535 3257 9535 3259 9550 3273 9574

$$

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1112 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

TXC001-073-225-201612-
/O.CON.KSHV.FL.W.0073.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/NCST2.1.ER.150406T2100Z.150420T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1112 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

The flood warning continues for
  the Neches River Near Neches.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 10:30 AM Sunday The stage was 14.8 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 15.1 feet by
  tomorrow early afternoon then begin falling.
* Impact...at 14.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding.  Move livestock and
  equipment to higher ground away from the river.

&&

LAT...LON 3205 9551 3167 9524 3166 9537 3180 9544 3188 9548

$$

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1112 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

TXC001-073-225-455-201612-
/O.CON.KSHV.FL.W.0077.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/ATOT2.1.ER.000000T0000Z.150421T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1112 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

The flood warning continues for
  the Neches River Near Alto.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  7:00 AM Sunday The stage was 17.2 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 17.5 feet by
  Tuesday morning then begin falling.
* Impact...at 18.0 feet...Expect moderate to severe flooding of the
  heavily wooded floodplain. Boat ramps and picnic areas will be
  completely inundated.

&&

LAT...LON 3167 9524 3152 9504 3138 9492 3133 9500 3166 9537

$$

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1112 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

TXC005-225-373-455-457-201612-
/O.EXT.KSHV.FL.W.0078.150421T0000Z-150424T1200Z/
/DIBT2.1.ER.150421T0000Z.150422T0000Z.150423T1800Z.NO/
1112 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

...The flood warning extended until Friday morning...The flood
warning continues for
  the Neches River Near Diboll.
* from Monday evening to Friday morning...or until the warning is
  cancelled.
* At 10:15 AM Sunday The stage was 11.2 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by tomorrow evening and continue
  to rise to near 12.3 feet BY Tuesday evening. The river will fall
  below flood stage by Thursday early afternoon.
* Impact...at 12.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding occurs.

&&

LAT...LON 3138 9492 3107 9455 3103 9459 3111 9485 3136 9500

$$

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1110 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

TXC347-401-405-419-201610-
/O.EXT.KSHV.FL.W.0079.000000T0000Z-150423T0000Z/
/ATBT2.1.ER.150415T0000Z.150420T0600Z.150422T0600Z.NO/
1110 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

...The flood warning extended until Wednesday evening...The flood
warning continues for
  the Attoyac Bayou Near Chireno.
* until Wednesday evening...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 10:30 AM Sunday The stage was 15.8 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 16.0 feet by
  after midnight tomorrow. The river will fall below flood stage
  early Wednesday morning.
* Impact...at 14.0 feet...Expect lowland flooding for the next several
  days of the heavily wooded floodplain. Ranchers that have cattle
  and equipment near the river should move them to higher ground.

&&

LAT...LON 3142 9432 3191 9451 3192 9447 3157 9429 3150 9430

$$

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1109 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

TXC005-073-347-201609-
/O.CON.KSHV.FL.W.0080.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LUFT2.1.ER.000000T0000Z.150423T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1109 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

The flood warning continues for
  the Angelina River Near Lufkin.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  7:00 AM Sunday The stage was 10.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 11.6 feet by
  early Thursday morning then begin falling.
* Impact...at 12.0 feet...Lowland flooding will continue to slowly
  diminish over the next several days.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 9462 3145 9474 3148 9482 3150 9482 3146 9466

$$

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1028 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in
Louisiana...

  Vermilion River At Lafayette, Surrey Street Gage

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in
Louisiana...

  Bundick Creek At Bundick Lake
  Calcasieu River Near Glenmora
  Calcasieu River Near Oberlin
  Calcasieu River Near Kinder
  Calcasieu River Near Salt Water Barrier

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in
Louisiana...Texas..
  Calcasieu River At Old Town Bay
  Mermentau River Near Mermentau
  Sabine River Near Deweyville
  Neches River Near Town Bluff
  Neches River Near Beaumont
  Pine Island Bayou Near Sour Lake

TXC199-245-200527-
/O.CON.KLCH.FL.W.0033.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/SOLT2.1.ER.150417T0812Z.150420T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1028 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pine Island Bayou Near Sour Lake.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  9:45 AM Sunday the stage was 28.1 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 28.2 feet by this
  evening then begin falling.

&&

LAT...LON 3012 9445 3024 9423 3021 9407 3013 9406 3004 9445

$$

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1028 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in
Louisiana...

  Vermilion River At Lafayette, Surrey Street Gage

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in
Louisiana...

  Bundick Creek At Bundick Lake
  Calcasieu River Near Glenmora
  Calcasieu River Near Oberlin
  Calcasieu River Near Kinder
  Calcasieu River Near Salt Water Barrier

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in
Louisiana...Texas..
  Calcasieu River At Old Town Bay
  Mermentau River Near Mermentau
  Sabine River Near Deweyville
  Neches River Near Town Bluff
  Neches River Near Beaumont
  Pine Island Bayou Near Sour Lake

TXC241-457-200527-
/O.CON.KLCH.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/TBFT2.1.ER.150312T0200Z.150322T1201Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1028 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Neches River Near Town Bluff.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 10:00 AM Sunday the stage was 67.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 64.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 68.3 feet by this
  afternoon then begin falling.

&&

LAT...LON 3096 9432 3079 9420 3053 9418 3053 9399 3099 9415

$$


Lake Wind Advisory


URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
433 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 7 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...

TXZ096-108>111-124-125-136-137-149-150-191800-
/O.NEW.KSHV.LW.Y.0017.150419T1700Z-150420T0000Z/
RED RIVER-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-WOOD-UPSHUR-SMITH-GREGG-
CHEROKEE-RUSK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLARKSVILLE...BOGATA...MOUNT VERNON...
MOUNT PLEASANT...PITTSBURG...DAINGERFIELD...LONE STAR...NAPLES...
OMAHA...MINEOLA...WINNSBORO...QUITMAN...HAWKINS...GILMER...
BIG SANDY...TYLER...LONGVIEW...JACKSONVILLE...RUSK...HENDERSON
433 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING.

* EVENT...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER EASTCENTRAL TEXAS
  THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD MOVING DRYLINE WILL RESULT
  IN SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30
  MPH.

* TIMING...BETWEEN 12 PM AND 7 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

* IMPACT...ROUGH CHOP MAY CAUSE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ON
  AREA LAKES AND OPEN WATERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH CHOP
ON AREA LAKES. SMALL BOATS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING.

&&

$$

15


Hazardous Weather Outlook


HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1229 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-201100-
ANGELINA-BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-BOWIE-CADDO-CALDWELL-CAMP-CASS-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-COLUMBIA-DE SOTO-FRANKLIN-GRANT-GREGG-HARRISON-HEMPSTEAD-
HOWARD-JACKSON-LA SALLE-LAFAYETTE-LINCOLN-LITTLE RIVER-MARION-
MCCURTAIN-MILLER-MORRIS-NACOGDOCHES-NATCHITOCHES-NEVADA-OUACHITA-
PANOLA-RED RIVER LA-RED RIVER TX-RUSK-SABINE LA-SABINE TX-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SEVIER-SHELBY-SMITH-TITUS-UNION AR-UNION LA-UPSHUR-
WEBSTER-WINN-WOOD-
1229 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EAST
TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THE STORMS WILL THEN SPREAD EAST INTO NORTH LOUISIANA
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT...THAT
WILL HAVE OVERTAKEN A DRYLINE...OVER EAST CENTRAL TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. STRONG SURFACE HEATING DURING THE
AFTERNOON WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...WITH
SOME OF THE STORMS BECOMING SEVERE THROUGH THIS EVENING...
WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. STORMS MAY FORM INTO A CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...AND ACCELERATE
EAST SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE REGION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING...IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
BACKDOORS SOUTHWEST INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION...AND STALLS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND EAST TEXAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SKYWARN NETWORKS...AND AMATEUR
RADIO OPERATORS...WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
THE REGION MAINLY AFTER 2 PM CDT INTO THE EVENING.

$$

06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-201200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1155 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN...CENTRAL...AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ENID TO
KINGFISHER...TO CHICKASHA AND ARDMORE.

TIMING...
NOON TO 7 PM.

IMPACTS...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERNS. THE TORNADO POTENTIAL IS VERY LOW...
HOWEVER...A FEW FUNNEL CLOUDS MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG WITH HEATING AND AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
LARGE HAIL THE MAIN CONCERN. HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. STORMS NEAREST THE CENTER OF A CLOSED
UPPER LOW WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRODUCING BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUDS.
IT IS UNLIKELY THAT ANY OF THESE COLD AIR FUNNELS WILL ACTUALLY TOUCH
THE GROUND...AND THUS THE TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN VERY LOW.
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
EARLY THIS EVENING...AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREAS SHOULD PREPARE FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.STRONG WINDS...
IN THE WAKE OF A FAST MOVING FRONT...STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...
WHICH WILL MAKE DRIVING OF HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES DIFFICULT ON EAST
WEST ORIENTED ROADS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD TONIGHT INTO MONDAY... THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. AT LEAST
SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL THEN EXIST EACH DAY THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH DETAILS ON SPECIFIC HAZARDS AND AREAS OF CONCERN
REMAIN UNCERTAIN. CHECK THE FORECAST FREQUENTLY AS WE HEAD INTO
NEXT WEEK.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

$$

EM/MBS/AUSTIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
934 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-201200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
934 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF
A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE...TO ROCKWALL...TO CORSICANA...TO CAMERON.
A STORM OR TWO MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT NORTHWEST
OF COMANCHE...TO WEATHERFORD...TO MCKINNEY TO COOPER LINE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. STORMS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL POSE A HIGHER SEVERE
WEATHER RISK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED EAST OF A BONHAM TO TERRELL TO
HEARNE LINE THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
649 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-211>213-227-201200-
AUSTIN-BRAZOS-BURLESON-FORT BEND-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-LIBERTY-
MADISON-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-
WASHINGTON-
649 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY BRING
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 2 AND 6 PM. THE
PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL
HAIL. RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE LESS THAN 0.25 INCH WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS AROUND 1
INCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

$$

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
500 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
500 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015


...SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TODAY....

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE POTENTIAL SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST
   CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...


THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TORNADO.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA....MOST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
ONSET...AFTERNOON.

        AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...MID TO LATE MORNING.

AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...AFTERNOON.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA... EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...LATE MORNING.


SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...AFTERNOON.


DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED OVERNIGHT HAS STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
ATTENTION WILL TURN TOWARDS THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL FINALLY MOVE OUT
OF EASTERN COLORADO AND INTO THE PLAINS TODAY. SURFACE FEATURES WILL
ALSO COME INTO FOCUS...INCLUDING A SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA THAT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
ENTIRE AREA THIS EVENING.

AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...LOCATIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SURFACE LOW
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE BY THIS AFTERNOON AS HEATING TAKES
PLACE AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS FOR SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...DISCRETE CELLS THAT DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS WILL CARRY
AN INCREASED TORNADO RISK...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE HAIL. THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL DECREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION.

ADDITIONALLY...AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE COMBINED WITH AREAL COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL WILL RESULT A LIMITED FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO ENSUE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 MILES AN HOUR POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
AFTER A DRY MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY RETURN THIS
WEEK AS THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED. A
DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE EAST...AND WILL
BRING INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE REGION LATER IN THE WORK
WEEK/EARLY PART OF THE NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE MAIN SYSTEM
ORGANIZES AND TRACKS INTO THE PLAINS.


WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
437 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-200945-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
437 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF A
GEORGETOWN TO AUSTIN TO SEGUIN TO PLEASANTON LINE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

$$


Short Term Forecast


SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1214 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-191915-
BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-
PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE-
TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-WAGONER-
CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-PITTSBURG-HASKELL-
LATIMER-LE FLORE-
1214 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.NOW...
AT NOON...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...ACROSS POTIONS OF OSAGE...WASHINGTON...ROGERS AND
NORTHERN TULSA COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AROUND
40 MPH. OTHER LIGHT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY VIRGA...WAS SCATTERED OVER
AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 75.

THROUGH 2 PM...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM MIAMI TO MCALESTER.

$$

U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 2, 2009
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE: for Safety, for Work, for Fun - FOR LIFE