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ISSUED: 1052 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2015
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map


An area of high pressure will continue to dominate most of the region through the end of the week. As a result, cool and dry conditions will persist through the end of the week.

Significant rainfall is still expected for portions of the WGRFC region for the upcoming Thanksgiving week. Weather models continue to forecast another powerful closed low forming over the northwestern U.S. on Tuesday. This feature is expected to begin strengthening over Nevada by Wednesday and remain around this general area for several days. Abundant moisture is expected to move northward ahead of this system, and should initially produce some light precipitation from northern Mexico into central and south Texas during the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. By Thursday/Friday, a strong cold front is forecast to move across North and Central Texas, which is when the bulk of the heavy rains will begin. Rainfall amounts of up to 2.00 inches are possible for areas along and north of I-20, with higher amounts closer to the Red River area. We will continue to monitor the model guidance for any changes, and will update accordingly.


Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Monday morning, no significant Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Wednesday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of up to 2.00 inches are forecast for area along and north of I-20.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Topsoil moisture has increased significantly with recent rainfall events which means it will require less rainfall for runoff to occur. That, along with the vegetation becoming more dormant as the growing season comes to an end, means runoff will be quicker. Over Texas only 10% of the state is abnormally dry, while over New Mexico, 26% of the state is abnormally dry. The heaviest rainfall with this next cold front will be offshore, thus no significant runoff is expected. The remaining predicted rainfall will not be heavy enough to generate significant runoff the next five days. A storm is expected after this five-day period which may produce minor runoff over especially northern Texas by next Friday.


Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...Trinity Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Higher than normal flows continue across the lower Trinity River. River stages at most of these locations have crested and are now falling. Lake Livingston continues to decrease their releases. River stages downstream of this reservoir will continue to recede.

...Guadalupe Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The Guadalupe River at Bloomington (DUPT2) has crested and is currently falling. River stages for the rest of the Guadalupe are below criteria levels.

...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Higher than normal flows with minor flooding continue at various locations across the Neches River basin. River stages have crest and are now falling.

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Recent heavy rainfall throughout the Sabine River basin has generated higher bankfull and minor flood level flows.These flows levels are now receding. Toledo Bend Reservoir has begun generating power 24 hours per day, 7 days per week.

...Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Higher flows are occurring on the Navasota River and lower Brazos River. River stages have crested and are now slowly receding.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Soil moisture remains high across many river basins because of recent rainfall. Although rainfall is not expected over the next couple days, another weather pattern is beginning to set up. Heavy rainfall is expected later this week across a large area of Texas.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor

Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather


The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at:

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:

National Precipitation Analysis:

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:

The US Drought Assessment:

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:


$$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.