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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1118 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014
VALID: NOVEMBER 24 THROUGH NOVEMBER 29
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THIS WEEK ACROSS THE WGRFC AREA...

Drier weather has arrived in the wake of the low pressure system which moved across Texas over the weekend. The exception to that was over northern New Mexico, southern Colorado and into the Texas panhandle. A secondary upper air disturbance moved across Colorado toward Kansas and is now moving into Missouri this morning, and this disturbance produced the light precipitation. As this disturbance moves further eastward, no additional precipitation is expected over the WGRFC area until this evening.

By tonight and Tuesday yet another strong upper air disturbance and a cold front are forecast to move from western Colorado through Texas. Atmospheric moisture will be limited, thus little or no shower activity is expected with their passage. However, light precipitation may fall over northern New Mexico and southern Colorado. This disturbance will move out of the WGRFC area by Tuesday evening.

On Wednesday a large ridge of high pressure is forecast to build over the west coast. This ridge will move slowly eastward the rest of the week, thus dry weather is expected from Tuesday night through Thanksgiving Day and into Saturday morning.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Tuesday morning, no significant Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for extreme northern New Mexico and southern Colorado.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for extreme northern New Mexico and southern Colorado.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Thursday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue to be observed over parts of New Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about half the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (44%) and 10% has extreme to exceptional drought. In New Mexico, nearly two thirds of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (63%) and 2% has extreme to exceptional drought. No doubt the rainfall which fell this past weekend was heavy enough to put a small dent in the drought, but likely did not eliminate these conditions. With minimal rainfall forecast the next 5 days, no new or additional runoff will occur.





...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...Colorado Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Recent heavy rains in the Austin area yesterday afternoon caused minor street and small stream flooding. Onion creek at US 183 (ATIT2) did respond with flows in the minor flood category but has since fallen below bankfull. The Colorado River near Smithville (SMIT2) has risen above action stage and nearing crest. It should fall below action stage later tonight.

...San Antonio Basin...
Recent heavy rains have generated some minor rises in the lower portions of the San Antonio. Cibolo creek near Falls City (FCTT2) is currently expected to rise and crest slightly below action stage.

...Brazos Basin...
Recent rains did generate minor runoff events in the lower Brazos.. Davidson creek near Lyons (LYNT2) crested slightly above action stage yesterday and is currently within banks and falling rapidly.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
With the exceptions noted in specific basin discussions, remaining rivers will remain below flood criteria through the forecast period.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather

...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

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