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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1140 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014
VALID: JULY 26 THROUGH JULY 31
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...RIDGE IN PLACE TODAY BUT FRONT STILL IN THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...

The ridge remains stalled over Texas and will continue the hot and dry atmosphere through tomorrow. There is a chance for a seabreeze shower along the coast today and isolated showers in Mexico and northern New Mexico moving later into the evening.

The forecast for a front passing through on Monday remains intact, however less moisture associated with the front with the latest update. This will generate less precipitation over the WGRFC area if this forecast holds true into Wednesday. The front should pass on through Monday evening late in northern Texas with a slow progression through much of the day Tuesday. The slow movement will inhibit large scale thunderstorm development but isolated storms are expected. Rainfall totals will be isolated and minimal so no flooding is expected for the forecast period.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Sunday morning, no significant Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of up to an inch are forecast for northern New Mexico portion of the WGRFC.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of up to an inch for northern New Mexico, with an isolated 0.25 inches also forecasted for northern Texas.

For Tuesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inches may reach the far northern portions of Texas for the WGRFC area. Northern New Mexico and southern Colorado are forecasted to receive 0.25 to 0.5 inches over the time frame.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Extreme to exceptional drought persists over parts of southwest Texas, as well as over the western parts of north Texas into the Texas Panhandle and northeast New Mexico. Statewide, less than 1% of New Mexico and about 3% of Texas are in exceptional drought. But, severe drought conditions are impacting 78% of New Mexico and 33% of Texas. The monsoonal rains in New Mexico have reduced the drought conditions over the past couple weeks, while over Texas the drought has diminished over roughly the southeast quarter. More rain is forecast the next 5 days over New Mexico which will help to ease the drought conditions, but over Texas rainfall amounts will be minimal and will be concentrated mainly along and near the Gulf coast. Therefore, no significant runoff is expected the next 5 days.





...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...WGRFC Basins...
All WGRFC river forecast locations are flowing near or below for this time of year. Soil moisture conditions are continuing to dry across the area. No significant flooding is expected through the end of the forecast period.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather

...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

GIARDINO

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