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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1036 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016
VALID: MAY 20 THROUGH MAY 25
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN WILL HELP THE AREA SLOWLY DRY OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...

The large scale upper level pattern will transition from weak ridging, to a southwesterly flow over the next several days. At no time does the upper level pattern become strong enough to completely "squelch" the development of showers and thunderstorms.

After a brief lull Friday, showers and thunderstorms are expected across West Texas, especially along and ahead of the dry line. Thunderstorm activity will be diurnal, maxing out in strength and coverage in the afternoon and evening hours.

A weak front will cross the area early next week, spreading the chances of rainfall south and east. By the end of the 5 day period, most of the WGRFC area should see "some" rain. Widespread significant rainfall is not expected.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Saturday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are expected across the Lower Rio Grande.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast from the Texas Panhandle into West Central Texas.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast from North Central Texas to the Big Country. Lighter amounts are expected across the remainder of West Texas.

For Monday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for East Texas. Light amounts are expected across the remainder of the WGRFC area.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Soils are fairly moist across a good part of the state, especially the eastern half. Texas is now categorized as being 3% abnormally dry, with less than 1% of the state in the moderate drought category. Over New Mexico, 83% of the state is abnormally dry, and 40% remains in the moderate drought category. The rainfall the next 5 days will not be heavy enough for widespread significant runoff.





...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...Guadalupe Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Heavy rain Tuesday night in the city of Seguin has generated a Flood Wave that has started its way down the Guadalupe River. Another round of heavy rains yesterday generate a larger secondary wave that has increased the forecast river stages. While still not expected until late this weekend, early indications suggest that Victoria (VICT2) and Bloomington (DUPT2) will now reach moderate flood level.

...San Antonio Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Locally heavy rainfall produced rises across the San Antonio System. Upstream/headwater points have crested/are cresting. It will take several days for the flood waves to work downstream toward Goliad. Rainfall over the next 5 days should not produce new river rises.

...Brazos Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Higher than normal flows are occurring on portions of the lower Brazos due to recent rainfall and releases from upstream flood control reservoirs. However, The Little River near Rockdale (RLRT2) is rising into moderate flood levels and expected to crest later this evening.

...San Bernard Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
After heavy rains rises to action stage are expected with a possible rise into minor flood levels at Boling (BOLT2).

...Lavaca-Navidad Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
New rises are occurring throughout the Lavaca Navidad system as the heavy rain moved into the region. Flood levels are expected into action stage levels for many sites with only a couple of sites reaching slightly into minor flood levels.

...Trinity Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Higher than normal flows are occurring at several locations across the Trinity River basin. The Upper Trinity appears to be handling the recent rainfall fairly well. It is not until you get into the confluence at CART2 that elevated flows are observed. . A few points on the Lower Trinity will see higher than normal flows as well, but flooding is not forecast for this portion of the basin.

...Colorado Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Heavy rains caused Willbarger creek (EGYT2) and the Big Sandy creek (EGZT2) to rise into moderate flood levels over the past 24 hours. Other points downstream along the mainstem of the Colorado will swell from the routed waters into minor flood levels over the next day or so.

...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The upper Neches River Basin is continuing to slowly recede. The Neches River at Diboll (DIBT2) is continuing to recede but remains at minor flood levels. Sam Rayburn Reservoir is continuing to release flood water. Higher than normal flows are occurring on the lower Neches.

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Toledo Bend Reservoir continues to pass inflows, keeping the lower Sabine River at higher than normal levels with minor flooding downstream at Deweyville (DWYT2).

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Soils remain wet over most of the eastern half of the WGRFC forecast area. Any widespread heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding on the smaller flashier headwater basins. After today, rainfall should take a few day break before another round of rainstorms start up early next week.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather

...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

WALLER

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