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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1131 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016
VALID: JULY 25 THROUGH JULY 30
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...THERE WILL BE A FEW CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE WGRFC AREA THROUGH THE WEEK...

A ridge of high pressure at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere is centered over the four corners region this morning. This ridge has brought hot and dry conditions to the WGRFC area the past several days. The ridge is beginning to gradually shrink, weaken some, and shift slightly to the west. While this change appears subtle, this shift will allow the rain chances to increase across parts of our region this week. For today the most favored area for rain will be over eastern Texas and Louisiana. An easterly wave of low pressure is located over northeast Texas which is forecast to move southwest into central Texas by this evening. This, along with some increasing moisture will lead to at least scattered showers and thunderstorms. By Tuesday the easterly wave will slide southwestward over the Texas Hill Country and therefore will increase the rain chances from the Hill country to east Texas, meaning rain is possible in locations that have seen little or no rain so far this month. There also could be residual showers along the coast with the sea breeze front. And, isolated diurnal showers and thunderstorms will be fairly likely over portions of New Mexico and south central Colorado through Tuesday, mainly due daytime heating and orographic lift near the mountains, due to the monsoon. Mean areal precipitation amounts will be minimal.

By Wednesday a second easterly wave of low pressure will move across southeast Texas and will likely result in some scattered showers and thunderstorms for southern and eastern Texas and the Gulf coast. In addition, an upper air disturbance is forecast to move out of Colorado and will produce some scattered showers and thunderstorms over west Texas and the panhandle region.

By Thursday the ridge of high pressure to our west will begin to strengthen once again over Utah. This will put Texas in more of a northwesterly upper air flow. The upper air disturbance will continue to move southeast toward north Texas. This will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday to northern and eastern Texas into Louisiana. There could be some locally heavy rain over northeast Texas but it appears much of this heavy rain will be outside the WGRFC area. The rain chances over parts of New Mexico and Colorado will likely subside by Friday as the ridge builds. In fact, as the ridge moves slowly east most of the WGRFC area will see drier conditions by Saturday afternoon.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Tuesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for portions of northern and eastern New Mexico into southern Colorado, as well as over the eastern third of Texas into western Louisiana. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast for the northeastern two thirds of Texas, most of New Mexico, much of Colorado, and Louisiana.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for portions of New Mexico into southern Colorado, as well as over the southeast third of Texas into southern Louisiana. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast for most of the remaining areas within the WGRFC area of responsibility except for west Texas.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for portions of the Texas panhandle into west Texas, as well as over southern and eastern Texas into Louisiana. The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 1.00 inch, are forecast over western Louisiana just east of Toledo Bend Lake. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast for most of the remaining areas within the WGRFC area of responsibility except for northern New Mexico and Colorado.

For Thursday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for portions of the northeastern half of Texas into Louisiana. The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 1.50 inches, are forecast over extreme northeast Texas into southwest Arkansas. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast for most of the remaining areas within the WGRFC area of responsibility.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Soils continue to dry out across Texas due to the warm temperatures and a lack of significant rainfall. The U.S. Drought Monitor has categorized Texas as 13% abnormally dry, with almost 2% in moderate or greater drought. Over New Mexico, 77% of the state is abnormally dry, and 16% remains in the moderate drought category. Some rainfall is forecast over the next five days primarily over east and southeast Texas and western Louisiana. This will keep drought conditions from developing in this region, but only minor runoff is anticipated. The lack of heavy rainfall elsewhere will lead to continued drying through this forecast period and no significant runoff is expected.





...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...Trinity Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Above normal flows continue on the Elm Fork of the Trinity River near Carrollton (CART2). Lake Lewisville and Lake Grapevine have decreased their releases, so CART2 has dropped to near action stage and will stay at this level until additional decreases in upstream reservoir releases occur.

...Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Above normal flows continue along the lower Brazos River at Richmond (RMOT2) and are expected to continue for the next several days.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Higher than normal seasonal flows are occurring in the eastern half of Texas. Some rain is expected across parts of the region over the next 5 days, but no significant river responses are expected over this time frame. Daily convective activity can cause minor rises anywhere in the forecast area, but most areas will not see significant convective activity this week.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather

...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

STORY

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