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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1057 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014
VALID: OCTOBER 27 THROUGH NOVEMBER 1
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...A WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE IS UNDER WAY WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGH MID-WEEK...

A ridge of high pressure which brought dry weather to the WGRFC area the past several days has flattened out and has shifted east to Florida. This has caused a more zonal flow of air to develop, and within this flow upper air disturbances are approaching the western parts of our region to the south of a larger storm. The first of these disturbances brought some light precipitation to northern New Mexico and southwest Colorado the past 24 hours.

This system will continue to move east through the day today. As this occurs there may continue to be some precipitation over southern Colorado and northeast New Mexico as a cold front pushes through that region. Then this trough and front is expected to progress eastward and arrive to north Texas late tonight and Tuesday morning. This front may bring increased chances for rain to northern and eastern Texas starting perhaps as early as tonight, but is more likely on Tuesday through Wednesday as the front sags southward. At this point, heavy rainfall is not expected, and the larger amounts of precipitation are forecast just northeast of our region. The front will pass very slowly into southeast Texas by late Wednesday and will temporarily stall. Thereafter, a secondary upper air disturbance is forecast to move across Texas late Wednesday into Thursday morning and may bring additional light rainfall to central and southeast Texas. This rainfall should end later Thursday with the passage of the trough and front.

By Thursday evening a new ridge of high pressure is forecast to develop along and west of the Rocky Mountains. As this ridge moves eastward it will result in dry conditions again for the WGRFC area starting Thursday night and continuing Friday and Saturday morning, with a return to more seasonal temperatures. This ridge is forecast to be over east Texas by Saturday morning.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Tuesday morning, no significant Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over southern Colorado into northeast New Mexico, as well as over extreme northern Texas.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch are forecast over extreme northeast Texas into southern Arkansas and extreme northern Louisiana. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over the northeastern quarter of Texas into northern Louisiana.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over roughly the southeastern third of Texas and most of Louisiana.

For Thursday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over roughly the central third of Texas into central Oklahoma.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue to be observed over parts of New Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about half the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (48%) and 11% has extreme to exceptional drought. In New Mexico, nearly two thirds of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (63%) and 8% has extreme to exceptional drought. Since no significant rainfall is forecast within the WGRFC forecast area through the next 5 days, no runoff is expected.





...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...WGRFC Basins...
WGRFC river forecast points are currently near bankfull conditions. Rainfall forecast over the next five days will not cause mainstem river flooding in the WGRFC area.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather

...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

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