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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1052 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
VALID: JULY 1 THROUGH JULY 6
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...A MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN IS RETURNING TO THE WGRFC AREA THE NEXT 5 DAYS WITH NO WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED...

An area of showers and thunderstorms, associated with a weak low pressure system located over northeastern Mexico, will continue to impact portions of Deep South Texas and the coastal bend through the early afternoon hours. Rainfall amounts of up to 2.00 inches have been reported across Deep South Texas and northern Mexico since 7 am. An additional 1.00 to 2.00 inches, is possible across these areas through noon.

During the afternoon hours, this activity is expected to interact with a sea breeze front along the southeast Texas coast. As a result, additional heavy rainfall and flood" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">flash flooding is possible across the Houston area once again. Showers and thunderstorms may also spread into portions of central and north Texas during the late afternoon and evening hours. No significant river flooding is expected with this activity.

After today, very little rainfall is expected over the WGRFC area, as a ridge of high pressure continues to expand across the region. By late Thursday/early Friday, showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the Red River and North Texas, as a cold front moves into the area. The latest forecast models keep the heaviest rainfall just north of the WGRFC area, therefore no additional significant flooding is expected at this time. Elsewhere, diurnal thunderstorms should persist each afternoon over parts of New Mexico and Colorado, through the remainder of the forecast period.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Thursday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for portions of Deep South Texas, Colorado and New Mexico.

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for portions of New Mexico.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for portions of New Mexico.

For Saturday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for most of the WGRFC area.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Many lakes, especially over the northeastern half of Texas, are full and are releasing water according to regulation rules and schedules. Soil moisture remains high across much of Texas from rainfall over the past two months. Rainfall over the next five days in primarily southeastern Texas may be enough to cause some runoff locally, but significant, widespread runoff is not expected. Rainfall intensities and potential runoff will be monitored.





...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...Trinity Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Widespread flooding continues along the Trinity River mainstem. Flood stages will continue for some time as travel time from Dallas to Lake Livingston averages about 2 weeks. Lake Livingston continues to incrementally reduce releases as the lake returns to its normal elevation. Therefore flows are falling downstream, including Liberty (LBYT2) that is expected to fall below moderate within a few days. Another wave of moderate flooding is working its way down the middle Trinity River. Trinidad (TDDT2) has crested but will remain within moderate flood for another day. Long Lake (LOLT2) has risen above moderate flood stage and is nearing crest.

...Guadalupe Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Canyon Lake has again reduced releases which will lower the remaining forecasts as that reduced flow pushes downstream. Still elevated flow expected at Victoria and Bloomington through forecast period.

...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Higher than normal flows continue throughout the Neches River basin, but minor flooding continues only on the Angelina River near Lufkin (LUFT2) and on the Neches River near Town Bluff (TBFT2). There is still significant flood water in Sam Rayburn Reservoir which is above the flood pool; therefore releases will continue for several weeks and will keep Town Bluff within minor flood.

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Minor flooding continues at Mineola (MLAT2) and Deweyville (DWYT2). Toledo Bend Reservoir will be running 12 hours of power generation each day. This will create fluctuations in stage downstream at Burkeville and Bon Wier this week, and falling stages at Deweyville by the weekend.

...San Jacinto Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Rainfall amounts yesterday of as much as 4 inches in the Houston metropolitan area have caused some significant rises. Forecast points have remained below flood stage.

...Nueces Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Coastal basins will see higher than normal flows due to locally heavy rainfall.

...Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
All locations along the river are now below minor flood levels. However, flows along the river system will remain elevated above normal because of the releases from the upstream lakes

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Soils remain wetter than normal over much of the WGRFC area. Higher than normal flows should be the norm throughout the area.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather

...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

MCCANTS

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