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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1040 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
VALID: JULY 19 THROUGH JULY 24
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...DRIER CONDITIONS FORECAST WITH INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES UNTIL NEXT WEDNESDAY...

An upper level high will begin to intensify over New Mexico and west Texas. As this high strengthens by midweek the WGRFC forecast area will begin to see an increase in temperatures. The forecast will generally be rain-free with the exception of isolated thunderstorms along the coast in southeast Texas fed by off-shore breezes. An upper level disturbance currently located over Baja California is expected to slowly move east and provide an opportunity for rain to return to far east and southeast Texas by Wednesday afternoon.

Farther west, mid and upper level monsoon moisture will again be brought into New Mexico from the southwest as storm activity continues to occur over New Mexico and southern Colorado. Rainfall associated with this activity is helping to alleviate the adverse impacts of the persistent drought over the region.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Sunday morning, no significant Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Sunday into Monday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Monday into Tuesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Tuesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch are forecast to occur in far southeast Texas around the Houston/Beaumont area.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Extreme to exceptional drought persists over parts of southwest Texas, as well as over the western parts of north Texas into the Texas Panhandle and northeast New Mexico. Statewide, less than 1% of New Mexico and about 5% of Texas are in exceptional drought. But, severe drought conditions are impacting 78% of New Mexico and 37% of Texas. The monsoonal rains in New Mexico have reduced the severe category by 10 points over the past week.





...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The Neches River near Diboll (DIBT2) has responded to the locally heavy rains and has risen into minor flood stage this morning. Ayish Bayou (AYIT2) has crested and will slowly fall over the next few days. River responses elsewhere in the Neches have been minimal.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
All other WGRFC river forecast locations are below bankfull level. Significant rainfall is not forecast through the end of the forecast period.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather

...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

CAZIER

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