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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1029 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
VALID: APRIL 12 THROUGH APRIL 17
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...DRY WEATHER WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE RAINY PATTERN BEGINNING TOMORROW AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY...

The possibility of significant rainfall still exists for portions of North and East Texas, tomorrow afternoon through Monday morning. Another day of quiet weather continues across the WGRFC region, before a Pacific storm moves across the area early tomorrow. Currently, the upper level storm system is developing over southern California and will slowly begin moving towards the east throughout the day. Ahead of this system, an increase in southerly flow will allow abundant moisture to move into portions of Central and East Texas. Thereafter showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across a good portion of the forecast area.

As the upper level storm crosses the Desert Southwest by tomorrow, it should provide enough lift to aid in the development of precipitation in the upslope areas of Southern Colorado and Northern New Mexico. Forecasted precipitation amounts for this event, have increased a bit across this area since the last model data was reviewed. Mean areal amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are possible across these areas, with some isolated higher amounts. Elsewhere, moisture will be limited for the remainder of New Mexico and for most of the western half of Texas. Therefore, unfortunately widespread significant (and needed) precipitation is not expected in these areas.

As the upper level storm ejects into the Central Plains late tommorrow and Monday, organized showers and thunderstorms are expected, mainly east of the Interstate 35 Corridor. At this time, the best focus for heavy rain is for far Northeast Texas and far Southeast Texas. Locally heavy rainfall and severe weather is possible in the more organized thunderstorm complexes late Sunday and Monday. Overall, confidence remains high in this event, as models continue in very good agreement with the timing and strength of this system. By late tomorrow through early Monday, a cold front is forecast to push across the area. This feature is expected to bring very cool temperatures and some drier air to most of the region, for the remainder of next week.

Recent heavy rainfall over the Sabine and Neches basins has helped increase the antecedent soil moisture conditions for most of East Texas. As the precipitation parameters come more into focus, we will fine tune the runoff and possible river flood threat for the eastern river basins. However, at this time no significant flooding is expected.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Sunday morning, no significant Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for portions of northeast Texas and also the higher elevations of southern Colorado and northern New Mexico.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for portions of southeast Texas.

For Tuesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

The drought conditions have been deteriorating over the last several weeks over most of the region. Almost all of New Mexico and 85% of Texas remain in some level of drought category. In addition, 28% of Texas and 25% of New Mexico are in extreme drought. Statewide, in Texas, reservoirs are, on average, a little less than 65% full. This is below average for this time of year, with average being about 80% full. There is considerable variability across the state, with many of the reservoirs in the western half of the state below 50% full. Significant rainfall later Sunday and Monday could produce significant runoff, especially for the eastern river basins. Mainstem river flooding is not out of the question and we will update as the pattern comes more into focus.

...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...Neches Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
With Lake Palestine above it`s spillway, the mainstem of the Neches River near Neches (NCST2) continues with high, near bank-full flows, but is slowly falling with reduced spillway flows. Increased flows below B.A. Steinhagen Lake will not reach criteria levels downstream. Additional rains expected early next week should generate another round of rises.

...Sabine Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Toledo Bend Reservoir continues 24/7 full power generation given increased inflows from recent rainfall. Downstream, flows have increased to bank-full at Deweyville (DWYT2) to approach criteria stage levels, expected to level just below minor flood stage. No significant impacts are expected, but high levels should be noted for recreational activity.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
No significant rainfall is expected in the next few days in the WGRFC area. However, light amounts of rainfall is forecast over the eastern third of Texas Sunday and Monday that will produce another round of minor rises within small streams and tributaries. No significant impacts along the mainstems expected.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook


...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

MCCANTS

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