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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1023 AM CDT FRI AUG 15 2014
VALID: AUGUST 15 THROUGH AUGUST 20
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...WARMER DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH VERY LITTLE RAINFALL FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms developed overnight across the southeast Texas coast. This activity is expected to continue moving offshore over the next few hours. Another area of showers and thunderstorms is currently moving across portion of southwestern New Mexico. Overall, the rainfall amounts associated with this activity is very light and not expected to cause any concerns.

An upper level ridge is centered over the southwestern states with very little movement. Over the next couple days, moisture will be on the increase across the eastern two-thirds of the forecast region due to return flow. Showers and thunderstorms are possible across portions of North and Northeast Texas tomorrow night/Sunday, as an upper level disturbance moves over North Texas. Rainfall amounts will be generally less than 0.25 inch. No significant rainfall is forecast for WGRFC within the next five days. The possibility for coastal showers exists this weekend, and monsoonal activity is expected to continue across New Mexico through next week.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Saturday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for portions of the Texas Panhandle and southern New Mexico.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for portions of southwest Texas.

For Monday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for portions of the Big Bend area and central Texas.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Extreme to exceptional drought persists over parts of southwest Texas, as well as over the western parts of north Texas into the Texas Panhandle and northeast New Mexico. Statewide, New Mexico is out of exceptional drought while less than 3% of Texas remains in exceptional drought. Severe drought conditions are impacting 43% of New Mexico and 35% of Texas. The monsoonal rains in New Mexico have eased drought conditions over the past couple weeks. In Texas, the drought has only diminished over roughly the southeast quarter. No significant rainfall is expected through the weekend.





...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...Rio Grande Basin...
The Rio Grande at Candelaria (CDET2) is still experiencing runoff from local thunderstorm activity. Flashy events are still possible over the next day or so as convective activity remains in the area.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Monsoonal rainfall is expected to continue over New Mexico. River flow conditions across the WGRFC remain near baseflow except as noted in previous sections. No significant flooding is expected for the forecast period.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather

...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

MCCANTS

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