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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1101 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2015
VALID: JANUARY 20 THROUGH JANUARY 25
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...NEEDED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK...

All signs continue to point to a needed precipitation event this week. An upper level Pacific storm will deepen over the Rockies, helping shift the upper pattern to a more favorable southwesterly flow this week. A fairly strong cold front will cross Texas later Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing cooler temperatures to the area. Moisture in the southwesterly flow aloft will spread over this cooler air, with precipitation chances returning to the WGRFC area.

More widespread precipitation should form Wednesday over New Mexico, spreading east Thursday into the central portions of Texas. Upper level disturbances could help in the development process for organized areas of precipitation. At this time, significant precipitation is expected from the Heartland through Central Texas to the Middle Texas Coast and into Southeast Texas. While many areas could see light precipitation, some areas across Central and Southeast Texas and along the Texas coast could see significant precipitation (in excess of 2 inches) through Friday.

Mild and dry weather should return by the weekend.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Wednesday morning, no significant Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are forecast for portions of northeastern New Mexico and for Central and North Texas generally west of I-35 and near to south of I-30. Otherwise, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inch are forecast for the majority of Texas and for a wider area of northern and central New Mexico into southern Colorado. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for the rest of the WGRFC area of responsibility.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 1 to 2 inch are forecast for the middle and upper Texas Gulf Coast and for most of south central Texas east of I-35 and Southeast Texas. MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are forecast for most the rest of Texas except for the northwestern third of the state. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for the rest of the WGRFC area of responsibility.

For Friday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue across parts of New Mexico and Texas. In Texas, almost half the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (40%), and 11% has extreme to exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, nearly two thirds of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (65%), and 4% has extreme to exceptional drought conditions. Outside of East and Southeast Texas, soils are generally dry. Current precipitation forecast would impact the very dry soils of West Central and Central Texas. Little runoff is expected in these areas. Some localized runoff is possible in along the immediate Middle Texas Coast eastward into Southeast Texas.

...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Minor flooding is currently occurring on the Sabine River at Deweyville (DWYT2) as Toledo Bend continues to generate power from both of its turbines. This is expected to continue until further notice.

...Neches Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Higher than normal flows are continuing on parts of the Neches River Basin. The Neches River at Diboll (DIBT2) is currently cresting and should remain around action stage the next 24 hours or so. Pine Island Bayou near Sour Lake (SOLT2) is forecast to fall below action stage this morning.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Beneficial rainfall is expected later this week, mainly over west-central and central Texas. However, these rainfall amounts are not expected to be significant enough to cause any additional flooding.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook


...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

PHILPOTT

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