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ISSUED: 1059 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map


Another round of showers developed over the Big Bend and points around Amistad Reservoir and points downstream early this morning and are still occurring. Rainfall amounts of up to 6 to 10 inches have fallen around the Eagle Pass area and in counties east of the area over the Nueces River basin. These amounts of rainfall will produce runoff over the next few days.

The upper level low is forecast to slowly move back towards the south and then west. This will shift the heaviest rainfall into portions of northern Mexico through the weekend.

By early next week, an upper ridge will begin to develop once again across most of the region. This will bring a return of mild and dry weather to the WGRFC region early next week.


Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Saturday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are forecast for the Nueces River Basin and south into northern Mexico.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Sunday into Monday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Monday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch are forecast for deep south Texas and along the coast northeast to Victoria.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Drought conditions have returned to a good part of Texas. Only the Gulf coast, far west Texas and the panhandle are free from abnormally dry conditions. Topsoil moisture has decreased over the past month, which means it will require more rainfall to fall for runoff to occur. In Texas 70% of the state is abnormally dry, with 25% in severe drought. In New Mexico, 42% of the state is also abnormally dry. Some beneficial rainfall will occur from central and southeast New Mexico into the southwest third of Texas the next several days, and some runoff will likely occur. Elsewhere, the rainfall forecast over the next five days will not be heavy enough to cause significant runoff.


Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...Rio Grande Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Very heavy rains overnight from Del Rio to Laredo has generated a floodwave along the mainstem of the Rio Grande which has arrived in El Indio, TX and should arrive in Laredo on Saturday. Only minor flooding is expected at this time in the area.

In the Big Bend region, rainfall over the last few days has caused Rio Grande near Candelaria (CDET2) to rise over moderate flood levels, but the river should begin to recover as the upper level low that has brought the recent rains shifts to the southwest and away from our region.

...Nueces Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Heavy rains in the far western basins of the Nueces River (where it borders the Rio Grande) will lead to higher than normal flows for the next few days. The area above Asherton was especially hit hard and will be monitored to see if runoff actually occurred.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Elsewhere, rivers are at baseflow and are not expected to see rises through the period.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor

Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather


The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at:

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:

National Precipitation Analysis:

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:

The US Drought Assessment:

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:


$$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.