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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1059 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016
VALID: SEPTEMBER 23 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 28
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS FORECAST THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

One more hot and mostly dry day is expected today, Friday, over much of Texas with a chance for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. More widespread precipitation is beginning in southwestern Colorado today in advance of a developing upper low pressure system over the Great Basin.

By Saturday, the upper low pressure system will move northeastward over Wyoming, dragging a cold front into the Texas panhandle. More organized showers and thunderstorms can be expected to begin in northwestern Texas on Saturday.

Over the weekend, upper level low pressure is expected to remain in place over New Mexico and Colorado, and the cold front is expected to stall within the panhandle, bringing continued convective rainfall in western Texas. As the cold front then advances across Texas later Sunday into Monday, the rainfall will increase in both coverage and intensity with the potential for locally heavy rain in some areas, particularly in southern and western Texas. Rain lingers across the area at least into Tuesday.

The cold front is forecast to exit the region by mid-week with a return of drier weather combined with noticeably cooler temperatures.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Saturday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of up to 0.25 inch are forecast for western New Mexico, southern Colorado and for southeast Texas.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.5 to 2 inches are forecast for northwest Texas with the highest expected in the Red River Valley.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.5 inch or more are forecast for the western half of Texas. The highest amounts of 2 to 4 inches are forecast for portions of the Hill Country and westward to the Rio Grande and northward into the Rolling Plains.

For Monday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.5 to 1.5 inch are forecast for most of Texas.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Because of the widespread rain over the past few weeks over parts of New Mexico and Texas, drought conditions remain favorable. The U.S. Drought Monitor categorizes Texas as 4.5% abnormally dry, with almost 1% in severe drought. New Mexico remains unchanged this week with 47% of the state abnormally dry and 4% in the moderate drought category.





...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...WGRFC Basins...
Soils remain relatively wet over the eastern two-thirds of the region. Further out west, the soils continue dry and likely enough to handle most of the upcoming rain expected later this weekend into early next week. However, the rainfall amounts expected could generate minor or greater flooding in localized headwater areas within the Texas Hill Country and coastal areas along the middle Texas Gulf Coast. Additionally, reservoirs in Mexico within the Rio Conchos drainage along with reservoirs within smaller Mexico watersheds that directly drain into the mainstem between Amistad and Falcon Reservoirs, are near conservation and may begin regulation. This would affect Rio Grande flows from Del Rio downstream through Laredo with the onset of any heavy, widespread rainfall within those areas of Mexico.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather

...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

PHILPOTT

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