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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1056 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016
VALID: JUNE 23 THROUGH JUNE 28
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHERN COLORADO AND PARTS OF TEXAS...

A strong upper level ridge of high pressure is currently located over the southern U.S. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast to occur today into Friday, mainly over the mountains of northern New Mexico into southern Colorado. From there, a drying trend is forecast for this area over the weekend.

This weekend, moisture is forecast to begin moving into Texas from the Gulf of Mexico, bringing showers and thunderstorms to the region. This is expected to last into early next week.

No significant precipitation is expected from these events.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Friday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast over northern New Mexico and southern Colorado.

For Friday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Saturday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Sunday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast over a small area over southeast Texas along the Texas Gulf Coast.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Soils continue to be moist across the majority of Texas. Only 2% of Texas is categorized as abnormally dry, with no moderate or greater drought noted. Over New Mexico, 77% of the state is abnormally dry, and 35% remains in the moderate drought category. Even though the soils are wet in Texas, significant runoff is not expected from any rainfall through the forecast period. Minor runoff may occur in the Gulf coastal basins, but over the remainder of the WGRFC area little or no runoff will occur.





...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...Trinity Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
DFW area flood control reservoirs are now making flood storage evacuations that will keep elevated flows going down the mainstem passing through Lake Livingston for weeks to come. Lake Livingston may continue to make slight increases over the next week as the flood evacuations pass through the lake, this will keep the lower portion of the Trinity well above normal for an extended period with Liberty (LBYT2) staying in moderate flood level.

...Guadalupe Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Canyon Lake has reduced their flood water releases allowing the river to return to regular flow conditions through the weekend. A slight increse in releases is expected next Monday. Water already released continues to work its way through Victoria and Bloomington keeping these sites elevated for a few more days.

...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The upper portion of the basin including the Angelina River and Neches River continue to drain keeping several locations above flood criteria levels. Controlled releases at dam B keep the lower Neches elevated but not in any significant flooding.

...Brazos Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Lake Proctor continues to release water to lower its flood pool keeping the Leon River elevated for a few more days. Water continues to work its way downstream from these releases and others lakes including Lake Whitney (WTYT2) keeping the lower Brazos above action stage.

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Excess water from Lake Tawakoni continues to pass through the spillway which will keep the upper Sabine elevated into next week.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
The remaining river systems across the eastern portions of WGRFC area remain relatively wet. No significant rainfall is expected within the next 5 days that would generate significant river responses but evacuating flood pools will keep levels elevated.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather

...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

SHULTZ

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