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ISSUED: 1126 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map


An upper level ridge of high pressure continues to dominate the weather over eastern Texas this morning, while a series of storms systems affect the western parts of the WGRFC area. The upper level ridge will persist for another day or two and will continue to produce dry conditions over a good part of Texas. Meanwhile a low pressure system has moved southward into southern California. This low will be moving little through Tuesday morning. As this low sits and spins additional moisture from the eastern Pacific Ocean will continue to stream northward over New Mexico. This moisture, combined with upper air disturbances ahead of the main low pressure system, will continue to result in showers and a few thunderstorms over a good part of New Mexico and far west Texas today through Tuesday. Portions of far west Texas received in excess of 1.00 inch of rain the past 24 hours.

The closed low over the west will be slow moving. It will cross into Arizona by Wednesday morning and move to a position near El Paso by Thursday morning. So while east Texas and western Louisiana remain dry, precipitation will continue over New Mexico, southern Colorado, and west Texas into the middle of the week. Rainfall amounts in excess of 1.00 inch are possible over parts of southern New Mexico as a result.

By Thursday the upper air low will progress slowly southeastward, and will move into Mexico west of the Texas Big Bend by Friday morning. As this low moves southeastward the area of rain will spread or develop eastward into more of Texas. Fairly widespread rainfall can be expected over west Texas late Wednesday, and over the rest of the state Thursday and Friday. Initially the heaviest rain will be over the Rio Grande and Pecos River drainages in southwest Texas. But as the upper low shifts to the southwest of the Big Bend the heaviest rain will shift to the area southeast of Del Rio by Saturday morning. The upper low should weaken and begin shifting westward over the weekend and the rain should begin to decrease.


Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Tuesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast over northwestern and southwestern New Mexico into southwestern Colorado, and over far west Texas near El Paso. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over western Texas, the western two thirds of Colorado and most of New Mexico.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast over the southern half of New Mexico into far western Texas, as well as over northwest New Mexico into extreme southwest Colorado. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over western Texas and most of Colorado and New Mexico.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch or more are forecast over the southeast half of New Mexico, and for the western third of Texas. The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 1.50 inches, are forecast over west Texas and extreme southeast New Mexico west of Midland/Odessa. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over the western half of Texas, all of New Mexico and most of Colorado.

For Thursday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch or more are forecast over the southeast two thirds of New Mexico into extreme southern Colorado, almost all of Texas and northwest Louisiana. The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 3.00 inches, are forecast over southwest Texas near and just south of Del Rio. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over the remainder of the WGRFC area of responsibility.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Drought conditions have returned to a good part of Texas. Only the Gulf coast, far west Texas and the panhandle are free from abnormally dry conditions. Topsoil moisture has decreased over the past month, which means it will require more rainfall to fall for runoff to occur. In Texas 65% of the state is abnormally dry, with 18% in severe drought. In New Mexico, 43% of the state is also abnormally dry. Some beneficial rainfall will occur from central and southeast New Mexico into the southwest third of Texas the next several days, and some runoff will likely occur. Elsewhere, the rainfall forecast over the next five days will not be heavy enough to cause significant runoff.


Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...WGRFC Basins...
WGRFC rivers are below bankfull. The forecast for the rest of this week shows rain increasing over southern and western Texas as well as over New Mexico. This rainfall for the next few days may cause some minor flooding over eastern and southern New Mexico and southwest Texas. Elsewhere, only light rainfall is expected over northern and eastern Texas, keeping the rivers in these areas near normal if not below normal levels.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor

Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather


The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at:

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:

National Precipitation Analysis:

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:

The US Drought Assessment:

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:


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