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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1058 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014
VALID: JULY 18 THROUGH JULY 23
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...

An upper level trough in conjunction with a cold front brought quite a bit of precipitation to the WGRFC area overnight and will continue through the day. Rainfall totals have totaled 2 to 4 inches inches in many areas in east and central Texas. Areas around San Antonio and Austin also received locally heavy rainfall amounts from 4 to 8 inches.

These rains have provided beneficial ground-soaking rains over the past two days with little runoff impact with the exception of flooding in Denton County. The rains continue moving south southeast with moderately heavy rains still being produced along its boundary.

Monsoonal activity continues to occur over New Mexico into southern Colorado. Rainfall associated with this is helping to alleviate adverse impacts due to the on-going drought over the region. Some moderate to heavy rainfall amounts have been reported over the Albuquerque area and points north.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Saturday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch are forecast for south Texas as the system exits the area.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Sunday into Monday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Monday into Wednesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Extreme to exceptional drought persists over parts of southwest Texas, as well as over the western parts of north Texas into the Texas Panhandle and northeast New Mexico. Statewide, less than 1% of New Mexico and about 5% of Texas are in exceptional drought. But, severe drought conditions are impacting 78% of New Mexico and 37% of Texas. The monsoonal rains in New Mexico have reduced the severe category by 10 points over the past week.





...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...Rio Grande Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Locally heavy rains in the area of the Rio Grande above the Rio Conchos confluence (PIOT2) near Presidio and Ojinaga have caused a rapid rise on the mainstem.

...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Ayish Bayou near San Augustine (AYIT2) has responded to the locally heavy rains and has risen into minor flood stage this morning. River responses elsewhere in the Neches have been minimal.

...Trinity Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Very heavy rains around the Denton area have caused significant runoff events in several smaller drainages. Denton creek near Justin (DCJT2) crested above minor flood stage overnight and is falling rapidly. The Big Sandy creek near Bridgeport (BRPT2) crested above bankfull yesterday. The West Fork Trinity near Boyd (BOYT2) has responded to locally heavy runoff by rising to bankfull this morning, It should be near crest by the afternoon and begin to fall Saturday.

...Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Heavy rains near Georgetown on the South Fork San Gabriel River (GETT2) rose repidly this morning above action stage and has crested slightly below 9 feet.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
All other WGRFC river forecast locations are below bankfull level. Significant rainfall is not forecast through the end of the forecast period.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather

...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

CAZIER

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