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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1133 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014
VALID: APRIL 17 THROUGH APRIL 22
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...PERIODS OF RAIN ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT HEAVY RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED...

An upper air disturbance developed over the Colorado Rockies the past 24 hours and is moving into the Texas panhandle now. This trough produced rain, with snow at higher elevations, across Colorado and northeast New Mexico. Snow water equivalent readings of between 0.50 and 1.10 inches were noted over the eastern slopes of the Rockies. As this disturbance moves across Kansas and Oklahoma today and tonight most of the showers associated with this trough will be to the north of the WGRFC area. Some rain may occur across northern Texas but it will not be significant. This disturbance will be east of our region late tonight. Meanwhile, a second upper disturbance has been crossing south Texas. This disturbance produced showers and thunderstorms this morning along and near the middle and upper Texas Gulf coast. This disturbance will move east of the WGRFC area this evening.

On Friday a weak ridge of high pressure will bring mostly dry weather to the WGRFC area (except the far western portions). But by Friday night a new upper atmospheric low pressure system will be moving through the Desert Southwest. Moisture will be increasing ahead of this disturbance, and rainfall will begin to develop across portions of New Mexico and west Texas Friday night. Then as the disturbance moves eastward the rain is forecast to become fairly widespread (but not necessarily heavy) on Saturday and Sunday across especially the northwest half of Texas. Since the upper disturbance will be weakening as it moves over Oklahoma and Kansas by Sunday night only light to moderate amounts of rainfall are expected from the storm this weekend. The upper level disturbance is forecast to move to the east on Monday and the light rain will end.

A ridge of high pressure is forecast to develop over the Rocky Mountains Monday night into Tuesday and mostly dry weather conditions will result.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Friday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast for portions of southeastern Texas. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for the remainder of south central and southeast Texas into most of Louisiana, as well as over north Texas into Oklahoma.

For Friday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for portions of southwestern Colorado into much of New Mexico, and over southwest Texas.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast for portions of west and southwest Texas and extreme southeast New Mexico. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast over the western two thirds of Texas, New Mexico and Colorado.

For Sunday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or more are forecast for portions of north Texas into Oklahoma, as well as over extreme northern New Mexico. The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 0.50 inch, are forecast from near Childress TX to near Wichita Falls TX. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast over most of Texas (except for the Gulf coast and far west Texas), northern Louisiana, northeast New Mexico, and most of Colorado.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

The drought conditions have been deteriorating over the last several weeks over most of the region. Almost all of New Mexico and 82% of Texas remain in some level of drought category. In addition, 29% of Texas and 25% of New Mexico are in extreme drought. Statewide, in Texas, reservoirs are, on average, around 65% full. This is below average for this time of year, with average being about 80% full. There is considerable variability across the state, with many of the reservoirs in the western half of the state below 50% full. Due to the dry soil moisture conditions, the rainfall which is forecast the next 5 days will not be heavy enough to produce significant runoff. Mainstem river flooding is not expected.

...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Toledo Bend Reservoir has discontinued 24/7 full power generation until further notice. Higher flows from earlier releases are expected to keep the stage at Deweyville (DWYT2) sightly above minor flood stage through early Friday then begin to fall back to low flow conditions.

...Rio Grande Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Amistad increased releases last week elevating flows along the mainstem from Amistad downstream to Falcon Lake. No significant impacts are expected, although the river at Columbia Bridge (CBBT2) is fluctuating above an action level for pumps and livestock in the area. The duration of Amistad releases is unknown at this time.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
More rainfall is expected today along the coast from Corpus Christi to Houston/Beaumont and again this weekend, with heavier amounts far west Texas moving northeast into north Texas in the WGRFC area. There may be heavier localized amounts with any convective activity including response from flashier streams. However, no significant impacts are expected along the mainstems.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook


...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

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