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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1146 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014
VALID: JULY 28 THROUGH AUGUST 2
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS HOWEVER BIGGEST IMPACT TO WGRFC AREA IS OUT WEST IN NEW MEXICO...

The front forecasted to move through north Texas has pushed through bringing with it little moisture this far south for Texas. Out west however, the front generated consistent lift over the evening hours dropping 3 to 4 inches in areas on northeast Mexico, but the WGRFC area only saw at most a half an inch. Most of New Mexico did see rainfall which will benefit the ongoing drought temporarily. As for the rest of today, the front will continue to push through Texas, but a lack of surface moisture will limit any widespread rainfall that has been occurring in Oklahoma. Isolated showers are possible and forming in portions of north Texas, but nothing of significance.

Looking into the next few days, the front should hang around through tomorrow but should only really impact the western areas of the WGRFC. The lack of strong southerly flow at the surface will inhibit any source of large scale moisture limiting the rainfall chances for most of Texas. However strong convergence near the surface low in southern Colorado should generate enough instability to create a pretty good rainfall system north of the WGRFC. Though enhanced rainfall will continue in the monsoonal areas of New Mexico from this system. Even with the higher rainfall totals expected out west, no flooding is expected at this time. Will continue to monitor in case an isolated regions to receive significant amounts.

Looking in the extended look, the surface low pressure system should move along the upper level trough axis, and with the current forecast will stay too far north to create any major rainfall impact to north Texas late this week. There is a chance that rainfall will creep into north Texas bringing some precipitation, but a glancing blow is the best that can be expected. This is all contingent on the forecast of the upper level trough being accurate, a shift to the south and west will help north Texas chances for increased precipitation. As the front gets closer to the coast as well moisture availability will increase and higher rainfall values are possible looking as far as Friday.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Tuesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inches are forecasted for much of the WGRFC areas in New Mexico and southern Colorado.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inches are forecasted for isolated areas around New Mexico and southeast Texas.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inches are forecasted for far northeast Texas with the front, as well as northern New Mexico with the monsoonal flow enhanced by the surface low.

For Thursday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of widespread 0.25 up to an inch are forecasted for central and eastern Texas as well as New Mexico. Rain chances for most of WGRFC except for panhandle and deep south Texas.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Extreme to exceptional drought persists over parts of southwest Texas, as well as over the western parts of north Texas into the Texas Panhandle and northeast New Mexico. Statewide, less than 1% of New Mexico and about 3% of Texas are in exceptional drought. But, severe drought conditions are impacting 78% of New Mexico and 33% of Texas. The monsoonal rains in New Mexico have reduced the drought conditions over the past couple weeks, while over Texas the drought has diminished over roughly the southeast quarter. More rain is forecast the next 5 days over New Mexico which will help to ease the drought conditions, but over Texas rainfall amounts will be minimal and will be concentrated mainly along and near the Gulf coast. Therefore, no significant runoff is expected the next 5 days.





...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...WGRFC Basins...
All WGRFC river forecast locations are flowing near or below for this time of year. Soil moisture conditions are continuing to dry across the area. No significant flooding is expected through the end of the forecast period.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather

...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

GIARDINO

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