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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1100 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015
VALID: JULY 24 THROUGH JULY 29
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...HOT AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK...

A strong upper level ridge is located over northwest Texas and western Oklahoma this morning. This ridge will be anchored over the WGRFC region and will continue to dominate the area through early next week. As a result, hot and dry conditions are expected to persist across most of the forecast area. This ridge may shift a bit to the east into Missouri and Arkansas by the middle of next week. While this shift is minor in the overall impact on our hot, dry conditions, this shift may allow a better chance for sea breeze showers and thunderstorms to occur over southeast Texas into Louisiana.

Monsoonal activity is expected to continue over the next 5 days over portions of New Mexico, Colorado and far west Texas. The showers and thunderstorms should be rather limited through Sunday, but as the ridge shifts slightly towards the east next week the areal coverage of the rain should increase once again. No significant flooding is expected the next five days.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Saturday morning, no significant Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for northern New Mexico and southern Colorado.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for portions of New Mexico, southern Colorado and far west Texas.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Sunday into Monday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for portions of New Mexico and southern Colorado.

For Monday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast for portions of northern New Mexico and southern Colorado. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for most of New Mexico, Colorado, extreme southeast Texas and most of Louisiana.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Many lakes, especially over the northeastern half of Texas, are full and are releasing water according to regulation rules and schedules. Soil moisture remains high across much of Texas from rainfall over May and June. However, the hot, dry weather we have had in July, along with the continuation of dry weather forecast over the next several days, will cause the topsoils to dry. The rainfall forecast over the next five days will not be heavy enough to cause significant runoff.





...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...Trinity Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
North Texas lakes continue to slowly evacuate flood pool storage via controlled releases in order to return to desired conservation pool levels. This has kept streamflows downstream at higher than normal flow levels, which is expected to continue for several weeks.

...Rio Grande Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
The Rio Grande near Candelaria is still reporting flows near action stage in the reach.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
The remainder of WGRFC rivers are flowing below criteria at near or above normal baseflow conditions. Significant rainfall is not forecast in the WGRFC area in the next 5 days.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather

...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

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