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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1038 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014
VALID: DECEMBER 16 THROUGH DECEMBER 21
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...CHANCE OF RAINFALL TO RETURNS MID-WEEK FOR TEXAS...

The center of a large upper level disturbance that brought widespread precipitation to the area over the weekend has moved into central Iowa . A cold front associated with this large system has moved offshore of the Texas Gulf Coast. Showers exited the WGRFC area of responsibility to the east this morning.

Today, there should be little precipitation chances in the WGRFC region due to upper level ridging. The exception is that light rainfall is possible in Deep South Texas and northeastern Mexico.

An upper level trough is forecast to reach California by mid-week. the effects of this system are expected to bring another round of widespread precipitation across Texas from Wednesday through Saturday morning with the heaviest amounts falling late Thursday night and Friday morning. This same storm system is also forecast to bring significant snowfall to the higher elevations in western and northern New Mexico Wednesday and Thursday.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Wednesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 of an inch are forecast for deep south Texas and northeastern Mexico over the lower Rio Grande valley.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch are forecast for northeast Texas including the DFW metroplex with the heaviest amounts northeast of Dallas.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1.50 inches are forecast for the southern two-thirds of Texas with the heaviest amounts covering the Hill Country and points northeast to the Texas/Louisiana border.

For Friday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1.50 inches are forecast for the eastern half of Texas with the heaviest amounts increasing from west to east.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue to be observed over parts of New Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about half the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (43%) and 10% has extreme to exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, nearly two thirds of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (65%) and 4% has extreme to exceptional drought conditions. Soils are generally dry enough such that forecast rainfall will generate mostly minor runoff.

...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...WGRFC Basins...
Current soil conditions remain damp over the eastern portion of Texas with states drying significantly westward. The forecasted rainfall over the next five days places precipitation over the saturated areas; however, currently the amounts are not heavy enough to create any flooding. The most sensitive areas are the headwaters of the Sabine and Neches as well as the central Trinity area. If rainfall amounts increase significantly above forecast only than will minor rises begin to occur. Otherwise no flooding is expected for the forecast period.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook


...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

CAZIER

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