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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1056 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
VALID: MARCH 28 THROUGH APRIL 2
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE WGRFC AREA...

Cool and dry conditions will continue across the WGRFC region for the next day or so, before the next series of systems moves into the area early next week. An upper level ridge is currently dominating areas to the west while a large upper trough resides over the eastern third of the U.S. This has placed most of the WGRFC in a northwest flow pattern, which is ultimately contributing to the nice conditions across the region. By tomorrow, the upper trough will begin to move eastward, and the upper ridge will begin to weaken. Thereafter, an upper level disturbance and weak cold front, are expected to move across North Texas....mainly tomorrow night/Monday morning. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to impact areas along and east of I-20, however this should not cause any issues across any of the river basins. Precipitation amounts of 0.25 inch or less are expected with this activity.

By early next week, a new storm is forecast to develop over Baja California. Thereafter, this system is forecast to move eastward, and is expected to bring another chance for rain to parts of New Mexico, southern Colorado, and southwest Texas...later Monday into Tuesday morning. A better chance for showers and thunderstorms exists for the remainder of the WGRFC area....mainly within the Tuesday-Thursday time frame.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Sunday morning, no significant Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for portions of extreme northeast Texas.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for portions of extreme northeast Texas.

For Tuesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.50 to 1.00 inch are forecast for portions of southeast Texas. Lesser amounts are forecast for the eastern two-thirds of the forecast area.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue across parts of New Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about a third of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (36%), and about 14% has extreme to exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, about two thirds of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (62%). Lake levels in these extreme drought areas are at or near historical lows for this time of year. Recent precipitation events have brought some drought relief, with no drought remaining over deep south, east central and southeast Texas into western Louisiana. The rainfall which is forecast the next five days over the WGRFC area will not be heavy enough to create new or additional runoff.

...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...Sabine Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Toledo Bend Reservoir releases have decreased again this morning, so falling stages can be expected to work their way downstream on the lower Sabine River. Moderate flood conditions will continue for one more day at Bon Wier (BWRT2). Minor flooding will continue into the coming week and at Deweyville (DWYT2) into the coming week.

...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Widespread minor flooding continues throughout the Neches and Angelina River mainstems and associated bayous. Although minor flood conditions will continue through this week, all points have crested and are slowly receding. Sam Rayburn Reservoir has resumed power generation that will allow flood storage to be slowly evacuated. Lake Steinhagen releases will continue to hold near 20,000 CFS until Sam Rayburn Lake is able to completely evacuate the flood pool, likely via generation. This process is expected to take several weeks.

...Trinity Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Bankfull flooding is still occurring in the lower Trinity at Liberty (LBYT2) and Moss Bluff (MBFT2) but are in recession with no significant rainfall in the forecast..

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Steady to falling stages are expected in most locations because of a period of dry weather. Soils are very wet over east and southeast Texas after the recent rainfall episode. However, some additional reduction in soil moisture is expected in the next few days prior to a return of rainfall to the area. Rainfall should not be heavy enough over the next 5 days to produce significant runoff.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook


...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

MCCANTS

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