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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1158 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016
VALID: APRIL 28 THROUGH MAY 3
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND...

A series of weather producers will continue to affect WGRFC`s area into the upcoming weekend. This will result in rounds of showers and thunderstorms as well as some periods of snowfall in the higher elevations of New Mexico and Colorado.

The first system will begin with precipitation in New Mexico and Colorado later today eventually spreading eastward, bringing showers and thunderstorms into the Four Corners and east Texas...including the DFW metroplex. The upper level low lifts northeast by early Friday.

Later Friday into Saturday, a low pressure system is forecast to move into Texas resulting in periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms with intermittent heavy rainfall. Rainfall amounts could be substantial for the ARK-LA-TEX area. This system may hang around through Sunday significantly impacting east and southeast Texas.

The main system will begin shifting east by Monday with some residual rainfall expected for the extreme southeastern sections of WGRFC`s area. Drier conditions finally return to the region by midweek.

Rainfall totals over much of Texas exceed normal averages for the past 15-30 days.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Friday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are forecast for CO, NM to north and far east Texas including the DFW metroplex. Heaviest amounts are forecast for along the Texas Panhandle.

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to three inches are forecast...for central and east Texas...maximum along the OK-TX-AR borders.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1.50 inches are forecast for east and southeast Texas...maximum along the TX-LA border.

For Sunday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1.50 inches are forecast for central and southern Texas...maximum along the extreme southeastern TX-LA border.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Soil moisture has rebounded this weeks as an active weather pattern is producing abundant rain that has once again has moistened the soils across a good part of the state. Texas is now categorized as being 20% abnormally dry, with 2.5% in the moderate drought category. These dry areas are confined to the Texas panhandle and the far western portions of the state, with the remainder of the state free of drought. Over New Mexico, virtually the entire state is remains in the abnormally dry category, and 44% is in moderate drought. The rainfall in the forecast over the next 5 days will produce additional runoff over many portions of Texas. Significant runoff should be expected over those areas with saturated soils.

...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...Trinity Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
A regular pattern of rainfall across the Trinity River system continues to generate higher flows and slow recessions throughout the basin. Several locations are still above minor and moderate flood levels (TDDT2), (LOLT2). The uppermost portion of the river, above Fort Worth, is still flowing well above normal with all the water supply lakes passing inflows to maintain their conservation pools. That water is keeping the mainstem of the West Fork of the Trinity well above normal all the way to Dallas, which controls the release plans for most of the flood control projects within the DFW metroplex. Until the water from upstream decreases, the DFW lakes are limited on flood pool evacuations, but are releasing as much as possible given the next rain heavy rain event expected to begin Friday afternoon overnight into early Saturday morning. With the forecast rainfall, minor flood conditions are possible across the upper Trinity down to Rosser and moderate flooding possible downstream along the mainstem through Liberty.

...Guadalupe Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The Guadalupe near Bloomington (DUPT2) will be falling below flood stage later this Thursday morning.

...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Heavy rainfall last week generated widespread minor flooding in the Neches and Angelina River basins. This flooding continues, but we are slowly recovering. Additional rainfall expected later this week is expected to generate a new round of higher flooding late in the week.

...Brazos Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Currently, minor flooding is limited to the lowest monitored mainstem point (ROST2) and will remain in minor levels for another few days as the river slowly recedes.

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Lakes are trying to lower their levels in attempts to make room for potential flooding coming so elevated flows are mainly due to reservoir releases. Upstream several sites are elevated as Lake Fork and Lake Tawakoni release and downstream Toledo Bend releases will push Deweyville into flood stage.

Forecasted rainfall in the long term may have an impact specifically on the upper portion of the basin. A lot of uncertainty this far out but could be an impact Sunday into Monday of next week.

...San Bernard Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
The mainstem has now subsided to bankfull stages and will continue to fall slowly through the forecast period. However, rainfall is expected over the weekend which may impact river levels late weekend.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Unsettled weather is in the forecast for the next 5 days and beyond. Location and amounts of rainfall will be critical in determining flood potential. Heaviest rainfall is expected Friday and into next week.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook


...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

AUSTIN-SMITH

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