Current Version              Previous Versions:   1  2  3  4  

Text Only

...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1049 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
VALID: MARCH 3 THROUGH MARCH 8
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE WGRFC AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND...

A large low pressure system is off the coast of southern California this morning. Well out ahead of this storm, very light precipitation has occurred across especially central Texas overnight and this morning. The showers and thunderstorms that occurred over southeastern Texas and southern Louisiana moved out of the region the past 24 hours. In Colorado and New Mexico, some light precipitation fell as well, but it was not as heavy as previous days. The upper level flow over the WGRFC area of responsibility will continue to be from the southwest which will draw in additional upper level Pacific moisture. Widespread light precipitation is expected from southern New Mexico to west Texas today, as well as through most of central and eastern Texas. Also, light snow and rain is expected to redevelop over northern New Mexico and Colorado by this evening.

A strong cold front is expected to approach the region from the north this evening as a strong upper level trough moves over the northern United States from Canada. Additionally, the low pressure system off the California coast will be pushed eastward. Showers and thunderstorms are possible beginning in northern and northeastern Texas tonight, then as the front moves across Texas Wednesday the showers and thunderstorms will continue along and ahead of the front into east central Texas. Behind the front light precipitation will be developing Wednesday. With the cold air moving in, a mixture of wintry precipitation is possible over north and central Texas through Wednesday night. Meanwhile, the snowfall will end in Colorado and New Mexico by Thursday morning. The upper level storm is forecast to move east of the region by mid-day Thursday, and cold, dry air is forecast to move in. Thus most of the precipitation will end during the day Thursday. A final round of light precipitation is expected in south Texas on Thursday and Thursday night before dry weather sets in.

By Friday a ridge of high pressure is forecast to develop over central California. As this ridge moves slowly eastward over the weekend there may be some residual precipitation along and near the Texas Gulf coast Friday and Saturday, but all the precipitation should be east of the region by Sunday morning.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Wednesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast for portions of far northern and northeastern Texas. Lesser MAP amounts are forecast for most of the rest of Texas and Louisiana, as well as for portions of southern Colorado and far northern New Mexico.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 1.00 inch are forecast for portions of northeastern Texas, with heavier amounts forecast east of our region over Arkansas. MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1.00 inch are forecast for much of central, northern and eastern Texas. MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast for deep south Texas and a small part of southern New Mexico. Lesser MAP amounts are forecast for most of the WGRFC area of responsibility.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. MAP amounts of up to 0.25 inch are forecast for much of Louisiana, as well as over Deep South Texas and the lower Texas Gulf coast.

For Friday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for portions of extreme southeastern Texas and southern Louisiana. Lesser MAP amounts are forecast for the southern half of Texas and the southern two thirds of Louisiana.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue across parts of New Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about a third of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (43%), and about 14% has extreme to exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, two thirds of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (68%), and 4% has extreme to exceptional drought conditions. Lake levels in these exceptional drought areas are at or near historical lows for this time of year. Rainfall amounts of up to 1.50 inches are forecast for northeastern Texas the next 5 days which could produce some runoff. Elsewhere, little or no runoff is expected.

...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...Sabine Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
The Sabine River at Deweyville (DWYT2) will crest near action stage late week, then quickly fall as Toledo Bend has shut off power generation until further notice.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Most rivers are generally near normal baseflow conditions across the eastern WGRFC area and below normal across the western areas. Forecast precipitation across northeastern Texas will generate new rises on small streams and creeks within headwater areas within the Sabine and Neches river basins. However, continued periodic rains are slowly replenishing deeper soil moisture deficits that occurred over the past few years.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook


...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.