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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1116 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014
VALID: OCTOBER 19 THROUGH OCTOBER 24
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...THE RIO GRANDE BASIN WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MIDWEEK...

An upper level low is currently located over the northern Baja Peninsula. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms has already developed in southwestern New Mexico in advance of this system. The low will move slowly eastward through Tuesday before dissipating, bringing rainfall to southern New Mexico, the Rio Grande from El Paso to Big Bend, and the Rio Conchos basin in Chihuahua, Mexico throughout this period.

Onshore flow from the Gulf of Mexico has also resulted in locally heavy rainfall in northeastern Mexico along the Rio Grande from Lake Amistad to Brownsville. Rainfall is expected to continue in this area over the next few days due to continued moisture feed as well as support from the approaching upper level system.

Midweek an upper level trough is expected to move northeastward across the northern Rockies. This will bring a chance for rainfall to Colorado, New Mexico and western Texas Tuesday through Friday.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Monday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are forecast for portions of northeastern Mexico that supply the Rio Grande. MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inch are forecast for southwestern New Mexico. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for the rest of New Mexico, southern Colorado, and areas of Texas that supply the Rio Grande.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are forecast near the Rio Grande from El Paso to Big Bend. MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inch are forecast for southern New Mexico and the Trans Pecos region of Texas. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for most of the rest of New Mexico, southern Colorado, and western and southern Texas.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inch are forecast for portions of the Trans Pecos region of Texas and for southeastern New Mexico. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for the rest of the Rio Grande drainage basin from southern Colorado to Brownsville.

For Wednesday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are forecast for the western half of Texas. MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inch are forecast for eastern New Mexico.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue to be observed over parts of New Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about half the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (49%) and 10% has extreme to exceptional drought. In New Mexico, nearly two thirds of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (63%) and 8% has extreme to exceptional drought. The forecasted rainfall is expected to greatly alleviate drought concerns for the high category drought areas in Central Texas.





...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...WGRFC Basins...
All WGRFC river forecast points are at or below bankfull conditions. Rainfall occurred overnight in Mexico in the Rio San Juan basin which contributes to the Rio Grande below Lake Falcon. WGRFC will monitor conditions in this area. Elsewhere in the WGRFC area, rainfall forecasted in the next five days will not cause mainstem river flooding.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather

...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

PHILPOTT

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