Current Version              Previous Versions:   1  2  3  4  

Text Only

...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1143 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015
VALID: AUGUST 25 THROUGH AUGUST 30
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS TODAY AND OVER NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO THE NEXT 5 DAYS...

An upper level ridge of high pressure is located just east of the four corners region this morning. This ridge will remain over this general location through Thursday morning. This will allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms in New Mexico and Colorado from this afternoon through the overnight hours. And due to the monsoon, mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms can be expected each one of the next five days over this region. While the rainfall will not be heavy, isolated locations may get one to two inches of rain on any given day.

With the ridge west of Texas, a cool front is moving slowly southward across East Texas, which enhanced the development of showers and thunderstorms across northeastern Texas early this morning. This complex of thunderstorms is expected to move southward, thus southeastern Texas will be the favored location for rainfall through tonight. Widespread excessive amounts are not expected, but isolated locations could get one to two inches of rain. This rain may continue along and near the middle Texas Gulf coast Wednesday before dissipating.

By Thursday morning, the upper level high will be shifting westward towards southern Arizona. Initially this will not have much impact on the weather over the WGRFC area. However, an upper level shortwave trough is expected to move over the central plains on Friday, which will cause another cold front to approach Texas. A chance for showers and thunderstorms will result in northwestern Texas later Friday, with the showers and thunderstorms possibly moving across northern and eastern Texas Saturday into Sunday morning. No significant basin averaged rainfall amounts are forecast.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Wednesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for portions of eastern Texas. Lesser amounts are forecast for western and central New Mexico, much of southwestern Colorado, and for most of central, northern, and eastern Texas into western Louisiana.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for the mountains of southwestern Colorado and northwestern New Mexico. Lesser amounts are forecast for the rest of the western half of Colorado, for western and central New Mexico, and for portions of South Texas.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. Light amounts of MAP are forecast for western and northern New Mexico, most of Colorado, and for portions of northeastern Texas.

For Friday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. Light amounts of MAP are forecast for most of New Mexico and Colorado, and for the western parts of north Texas into the Texas panhandle.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Drought conditions are returning to a good part of the southeast half of Texas. Topsoil moisture has decreased during the past month or so, thus it will take more rainfall for runoff to occur. The rainfall forecast over the next five days will not be heavy enough to cause significant runoff.





...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...Trinity Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Sustained releases from Lewisville and Grapevine will keep Carrollton around minor flood stage through the forecast period. These flood control reservoirs, along with Ray Roberts, continue to slowly evacuate the flood storage accumulated this past May during weeks of heavy rainfall.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
The remainder of WGRFC rivers are below criteria. Precipitation forecast over the next couple days is not expected to create significant issues. Dry soil conditions continue across most of Texas. Lake levels continue to remain near conservation or within flood pools for much of north and east Texas while most west Texas reservoirs are well below conservation.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather

...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.