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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1044 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014
VALID: AUGUST 18 THROUGH AUGUST 23
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with an upper air disturbance over the San Angelo area, is currently drifting northeast. Over the next several hours, this feature is expected to continue moving over unstable air and combine with daytime heating. As a result, additional showers and thunderstorms, are expected to develop over portions of north central and northeast Texas, during the afternoon and evening hours. Rainfall amounts within this activity, are averaging 0.50 inch or less, and this trend is expected to continue. Some higher amounts are possible within some isolated areas. No significant flooding is expected.

After today, the upper high is expected to slowly shift eastward and strengthen, as a strong upper level system develops over the Pacific US. This will keep conditions very warm and dry through the end of the week. Elsewhere, monsoonal activity is forecast to continue over portions of New Mexico. And the sea breeze will persist over the southeast Texas coast during the afternoon hours.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Tuesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.50 inch or less are forecast for portions of north central and northeast Texas.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for portions of New Mexico and Colorado.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Thursday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for portions of southern Colorado, and south east New Mexico.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Extreme to exceptional drought persists over parts of southwest Texas, as well as over the western parts of north Texas into the Texas Panhandle and northeast New Mexico. Statewide, New Mexico is out of exceptional drought while less than 3% of Texas remains in exceptional drought. Severe drought conditions are impacting 43% of New Mexico and 35% of Texas. The monsoonal rains in New Mexico have eased drought conditions over the past couple weeks. In Texas, the drought has only diminished over roughly the southeast quarter. No significant rainfall is expected through the weekend.





...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...WGRFC Basins...
River conditions across the WGRFC remain near or below seasonal flows. While a storm system moves through Texas today, no significant flooding is expected.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather

...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

MCCANTS

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