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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1000 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016
VALID: FEBRUARY 11 THROUGH FEBRUARY 16
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED THRU WEEKEND... POSSIBLE RAIN MONDAY...

A large high pressure system continues across the western U.S. and centered over southern California this morning. This ridge will persist and move slowly eastward into the weekend continuing the northwesterly upper level flow pattern across the region. In addition, a weak cold front will enter the area today bringing slightly cooler and drier air. No rain is expected over the WGRFC area through the weekend.

By Saturday into early next week, this upper level ridge will be along and just west of the Rocky Mountains, but flattens considerably toward zonal flow with the trek of an upper level shortwave disturbance across the Pacific northwest sweeping eastward out of the Rockies across the southern plains. This will provide sufficient lift and instability with enough moisture return for rain chances across far east and northeast Texas late Sunday into early Monday morning.

By Tuesday, the upper level high pressure ridge returns over the area and will continue drier weather through the end of next week.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Friday morning, no significant Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Friday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Saturday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Sunday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inches are forecast across northeast Texas into Louisiana and Arkansas.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Soil moisture has begun to decrease and soils have become somewhat drier due to the lack of significant precipitation lately and warmer than normal temperatures. As a result, it would take a bit more rainfall than usual for significant runoff to occur. Over Texas, 2% of the state is categorized as abnormally dry, but this amount is expected to increase given the current dry weather pattern. Over New Mexico, 9% of the state is abnormally dry, and that is mostly confined to the western portions of the state. No precipitation is expected over the next 5 days so no runoff will occur.

...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...Trinity Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
CART2 on the Elm Fork is expected to remain in minor flood stage as dam releases continue to lower their pool elevation. dam release changes are expected next week.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
No significant precipitation is expected over the next 5 days.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook


...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

MCKEE

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