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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1117 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015
VALID: AUGUST 28 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 2
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO THE NEXT 5 DAYS, BUT ONLY LIGHT RAIN ELSEWHERE...

An upper level ridge of high pressure is located over southern Arizona this morning. The upper level high shifted southwestward the past 24 hours. This ridge relocation will not have much impact on the weather over the WGRFC area. However, an upper level shortwave trough is moving around the periphery of the ridge over the central plains. This trough produced scattered showers and thunderstorms over New Mexico and Colorado the past 24 hours. And due to the monsoon, mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms can be expected each one of the next five days over this region. While the rainfall will not be heavy, isolated locations may get an inch of rain on any given day.

With the high pressure ridge west of Texas, the upper level shortwave trough over the central plains produced some showers and a few thunderstorms over the Texas panhandle and Oklahoma overnight. Some showers spread into northwestern Texas this morning, but most of the showers and thunderstorms will likely remain to the north of the WGRFC area the next 24 hours. Therefore mostly dry weather conditions will persist over most of Texas and western Louisiana through Saturday.

By Sunday and into next week the high pressure ridge is forecast to shift back east toward southern New Mexico, although its areal influence will shrink. A weakness in the ridge may allow a low pressure system to form over east Texas by Monday. If this occurs some shower and thunderstorm activity may develop along the Gulf coast where atmospheric moisture will be deepest. As this low persists across east Texas and western Louisiana Tuesday into Wednesday there is a chance for showers over roughly the southeastern half of Texas. At this point heavy rain does not look likely, and the northwest half of Texas will remain very warm and dry.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Saturday morning, no significant Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. Light amounts of MAP are forecast for parts of Colorado, for southern and eastern New Mexico, far west Texas into the Texas panhandle, and a small part of north Texas.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for the mountainous regions of southern Colorado into New Mexico. Lesser amounts are forecast for southwestern Colorado, the western two thirds of New Mexico, and for far western Texas.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast for southwestern Colorado into western New Mexico. Lesser amounts are forecast for the rest of the western two thirds of Colorado, for the western two thirds of New Mexico, and for the Gulf coast of southeast Texas and southern Louisiana.

For Monday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for the mountains of southern Colorado into northern and western New Mexico. MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast for the middle and lower Texas Gulf coast region. Lesser amounts are forecast for the rest of Colorado, for the northwestern three quarters of New Mexico, for the southeast half of Texas and Louisiana.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Drought conditions are returning to a good part of the southeast two thirds of Texas. Topsoil moisture has decreased during the past month or so, thus it will take more rainfall for runoff to occur. In Texas 41% of the state is abnormally dry, with 6% in severe drought. In New Mexico, 51% of New Mexico is also abnormally dry. The rainfall forecast over the next five days will not be heavy enough to cause significant runoff.





...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...Trinity Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Lower sustained releases from Lewisville and Grapevine will keep Carrollton above action stage criteria levels through the forecast period. These flood control reservoirs, along with Ray Roberts, continue to slowly evacuate the flood storage accumulated this past May and June during heavy rainfall episodes.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
The remainder of WGRFC rivers are below criteria. The precipitation forecast over the next couple days is not expected to create significant issues. Dry soil conditions continue across most of Texas. Lake levels continue to remain near conservation or within flood pools for much of north and east Texas while most west Texas reservoirs are well below conservation.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather

...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

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