Current Version              Previous Versions:   1  2  3  4  

Text Only

...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1054 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014
VALID: OCTOBER 17 THROUGH OCTOBER 22
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR NEW MEXICO AND FOR PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS WEEKEND...

Upper level high pressure over eastern New Mexico will keep the WGRFC region mostly dry over the next 24 hours.

An upper level trough currently located over the Pacific Ocean is expected to move slowly eastward across northwestern Mexico this weekend before stalling and weakening Monday. Another upper level trough is expected over the northwestern United States next week. These features will bring showers and thunderstorms to New Mexico, Colorado, and western Texas this weekend and next week.

To the southeast of the WGRFC region, a surface low is expected to develop over the Bay of Campeche this weekend and drift northward through early next week. This feature is forecast to bring rainfall to portions of Deep South Texas and the Lower Rio Grande Valley this weekend and next week.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Saturday morning, no significant Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inch are forecast for portions of Deep South Texas and the Lower Rio Grande Valley. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for portions of eastern New Mexico and southern Colorado.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inch are forecast for portions of Deep South Texas and the Lower Rio Grande Valley. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for portions of New Mexico, southern Colorado, and western Texas.

For Monday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or more are forecast for portions of New Mexico, southern Colorado, and western Texas. The highest amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are forecast for the mountains of southern New Mexico. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for portions of Deep South Texas.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue to be observed over parts of New Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about half the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (49%) and 10% has extreme to exceptional drought. In New Mexico, nearly two thirds of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (63%) and 8% has extreme to exceptional drought. The forecasted rainfall is expected to greatly alleviate drought concerns for the high category drought areas in Central Texas.





...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...WGRFC Basins...
All WGRFC river forecast points are at or below bankfull conditions. Rainfall forecasted in the next five days will not cause mainstem river flooding.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather

...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

PHILPOTT

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.