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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1027 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
VALID: JUNE 30 THROUGH JULY 5
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...A MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN IS RETURNING TO THE WGRFC AREA THE NEXT 5 DAYS WITH NO WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED...

A cluster of showers and thunderstorms is currently weakening over portions of north central Texas. Rainfall amounts have decreased to around 0.25 inch per hour. Another area of showers and thunderstorms developed early this morning over portions of West Texas. This activity is currently moving into an area from Candelaria to Presidio. Rainfall amounts associated with these storms are also in the process of decreasing...mainly averaging 0.50 inch per hour.

Over the next several days, any rains that fall across the WGRFC area are not expected to be widespread or significant. This is due to a ridge of high pressure currently dominating most of the region. By tomorrow into Thursday...the ridge to our west will broaden out and dominate much of Texas, thus most of the region will have dry weather. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue along and near the Gulf coast due to land and sea interactions tomorrow through Friday. Elsewhere, diurnal thunderstorms should persist each afternoon over parts of New Mexico and Colorado Wednesday through Friday.

While only light rain is forecast for the middle and latter parts of the week, significant river flooding is expected to continue for many more days on some of the Texas rivers due to past rainfall events.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Wednesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for portions of Deep South Texas.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for portions of Deep South Texas, southern Colorado and northern New Mexico.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Friday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for portions of Deep South Texas and northern New Mexico.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Many lakes, especially over the northeastern half of Texas, are full and are releasing water according to regulation rules and schedules. Soil moisture remains high across much of Texas from rainfall over the past two months. Rainfall over the next five days in primarily southeastern Texas may be enough to cause some runoff locally, but significant, widespread runoff is not expected. Rainfall intensities and potential runoff will be monitored.





...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...Trinity Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Widespread flooding continues along the Trinity River mainstem. Flood stages will continue for some time as travel time from Dallas to Lake Livingston averages about 2 weeks. Lake Livingston has been able to reduce their releases a little over the last few days as the lake returns to its normal elevation. Therefore stages are falling downstream, including within moderate flood at Liberty (LBYT2). Another wave of moderate flooding is working its way down the middle Trinity River. Trinidad (TDDT2) has crested but will remain within moderate flood for a few days. Long Lake (LOLT2) will rise above moderate flood stage overnight and crest mid week.

...Guadalupe Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Significant flooding has ended in the Guadalupe River basin. Releases out of Canyon Lake were decreased last week, but remain higher than normal. Minor flooding continues on the Guadalupe River near Bloomington (DUPT2).

...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Higher than normal flows continue throughout the Neches River basin, but minor flooding continues only on the Angelina River near Lufkin (LUFT2) and on the Neches River near Town Bluff (TBFT2). There is still significant flood water in Sam Rayburn Reservoir which is above the flood pool; therefore releases will continue for several weeks and will keep Town Bluff within minor flood.

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Minor flooding continues at Mineola (MLAT2) and Deweyville (DWYT2). Toledo Bend will be transitioning from 24 hour power generation to 12 hour power generation overnight. 12 hours of power generation are expected to occur each day. This will create fluctuations in stage downstream at Burkeville and Bon Wier this week, and falling stages at Deweyville by the weekend.

...Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
All locations along the river are now below minor flood levels. Flows along the river system will remain well above normal because of the releases from the upstream lakes

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Soils remain wetter than normal over much of the WGRFC area. Higher than normal flows should be the norm throughout the area.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather

...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

MCCANTS

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