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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1129 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014
VALID: AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 1
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE ALONG AND NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST WHILE THE MONSOON ACTIVITY DECREASES OVER NEW MEXICO...

A weak tropical low is currently located off the coast of Texas south of Freeport this morning. This system will continue to track southwestward today and Thursday and will bring a surge of deep tropical moisture over most of the Texas Gulf coast. Unsettled weather will be prevalent, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms likely each day into at least Friday. We will continue to monitor the progress of this low.

Elsewhere, the primary weather maker this forecast period will be from an upper level low pressure system currently over Utah. The trough which trails this low will move over New Mexico and Colorado on Thursday, initially affecting the Texas panhandle and the western parts of north Texas Thursday afternoon and night with showers and thunderstorms. Then the trough will move east into Oklahoma and north Texas and best chances of rain will be Friday over north Texas. This trough will then bring additional rainfall to primarily the upper Texas Gulf coastal region Friday night into Saturday before the trough pushes east of the forecast area on Sunday. The rainfall should decrease over Texas on Sunday night and Monday morning.

In New Mexico, showers and thunderstorms will become widespread today and tonight, then drier air will move over the state which will bring an end to the monsoonal rainfall from Thursday and thereafter.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Thursday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 of an inch are forecast for points in southern New Mexico just northeast of El Paso, as well as along the middle and upper Texas Gulf coast. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast for most of New Mexico and Colorado, as well as along and inland from the Texas and Louisiana Gulf coast.

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1.00 inch are forecast for the northwestern portions of Texas, with the heaviest amounts in an area between Amarillo and Lubbock. Another area with MAP amounts from 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch are forecast for an area along the Texas coast from Brownsville to Beaumont. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast for eastern New Mexico, most of Colorado, most of Texas and Louisiana.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for eastern Texas into southwest Louisiana, deep south Texas, the western parts of north Texas, and along the Red River. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast for most of Texas and Louisiana.

For Saturday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for southeastern Texas into Louisiana, with heavier amounts east of the WGRFC area. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast for the eastern half of Texas and Louisiana.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Drought persists over Texas and New Mexico. Statewide, New Mexico has no areas of exceptional drought while less than 3% of Texas remains in exceptional drought. Severe drought conditions are impacting 40% of New Mexico and 34% of Texas. The monsoonal rains in New Mexico continue to ease the drought conditions in many areas of the state. Some runoff can be expected along the immediate Texas Gulf coast the next 5 days, but minor or no runoff is anticipated elsewhere.





...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...WGRFC Basins...
River conditions across the WGRFC area remain near or below seasonal flows. No flooding is forecast to occur at this time.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather

...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

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