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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1150 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014
VALID: NOVEMBER 21 THROUGH NOVEMBER 26
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF TEXAS THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEK...

A deep low pressure system over southern California is going to produce a widespread (beneficial) precipitation event this weekend. Low level southerly winds have transported Gulf moisture northward, and already a weak upper air disturbance produced light rain over roughly the southeast third of Texas and western Louisiana the past 24 hours. The California low pressure system is moving east within an active southern branch of the jet stream, and will dive southeast into Mexico south of the Desert Southwest tonight. The upper level flow will become more favorable for the transport of deeper mid level moisture, which will set the stage for showers and thunderstorms. With abundant moisture and significant large scale lift (courtesy of the previously mentioned storm system), widespread showers and thunderstorms should form late tonight, which will become more organized Saturday. Some severe thunderstorms are expected Saturday.

The low pressure system is forecast to cross Texas Saturday afternoon and night. As a result, rainfall amounts could exceed 1 to 3 inches, with isolated 4 inch amounts in some areas of northern, central and southeast Texas. Locally heavy rainfall could produce areas of runoff. Due to the localized nature, widespread river flooding is not expected.

On Sunday morning the strong Pacific storm system will exit the area, leaving drier weather in its wake. The dry weather is expected to persist through Monday.

On Monday night and Tuesday another upper air disturbance and cold front are forecast to move through Texas. Atmospheric moisture will be limited, thus only isolated showers are expected with its passage. Cool, dry weather is expected from Tuesday night into Thanksgiving Day as high pressure approaches the region.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Saturday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for northern, central and southeast Texas, with the heaviest rain forecast west of the DFW metroplex. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for most of the remainder of Texas and northwest Louisiana.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch or more are forecast for the area east of a line from Childress to Midland to Corpus Christi. The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 2.00 inches, are forecast for parts of northeast, central and southeast Texas. Lighter MAP amounts are expected across most of Texas, extreme northern New Mexico and southern Colorado.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast for southern Colorado and north central New Mexico. Lighter MAP amounts are forecast for the northeastern third of New Mexico, much of Colorado and the Texas panhandle.

For Monday into Wednesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for extreme southeast Texas and most of Louisiana.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue to be observed over parts of New Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about half the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (44%) and 10% has extreme to exceptional drought. In New Mexico, nearly two thirds of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (63%) and 2% has extreme to exceptional drought. Significant rainfall is expected the first half of this weekend and should be heavy enough to produce runoff in some areas, mainly over the northeastern 1/2 of Texas. However, the runoff will not be enough for significant mainstem river flooding to occur.





...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...WGRFC Basins...
Rivers will remain below flood criteria the next couple of days. However, significant precipitation is forecast across portions of Texas this weekend. As a result, some higher than normal flows and minor flooding is possible in southeast Texas as well as the headwater areas in the middle portions of the Brazos and Colorado river basins.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather

...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

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