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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1122 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015
VALID: APRIL 22 THROUGH APRIL 27
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...RAINFALL IS RETURNING TO MUCH OF THE WGRFC AREA THE NEXT FIVE DAYS, BUT NONE OF IT IS EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVE...

An upper air disturbance moved eastward from Mexico across south Texas the past 24 hours. This disturbance interacted with a northward moving warm front to bring some rain to south Texas. Rainfall amounts in this area the past 24 hours were all 0.50 inch or less.

Over the northern parts of the WGRFC area, there was a northwesterly upper air flow. While no major storms moved through this flow, a minor storm produced light precipitation over north Texas Tuesday morning. This rain moved out of the area Tuesday afternoon.

This morning a low pressure system was located over southern California. This is again putting the WGRFC region under a southwesterly upper air flow, which is increasing the atmospheric moisture. As the moisture increases today, showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop ahead of the dry line. At this point two areas appear to be favored for heavier rainfall. One area is across extreme north Texas westward into the panhandle where an outflow boundary is moving southward from Oklahoma (where thunderstorms occurred last night). Severe thunderstorms are possible in this part of Texas. The second area is over southeast Texas around Victoria where moisture is deepest. This rain will temporarily diminish late tonight.

On Thursday the California low will finally begin to move eastward. As this occurs there will likely be a few periods of showers and thunderstorms later Thursday through Friday over a good part of Texas and Louisiana. Again, it does not appear that excessive rainfall will fall, but locally heavy rains may occur over portions of north Texas with the stronger thunderstorms.

By Friday night the low pressure system will be weaken as it moves over Kansas, with dry air moving into Texas from the west. This will cause the rainfall to diminish late Friday night and Saturday over most of the area except for Texas Gulf coastal region. A weak ridge of high pressure will bring dry weather for most of the region for Saturday into Sunday morning.

By Sunday a new low pressure system is forecast to develop and move toward the four corners region. This will bring another chance for showers and thunderstorms to Texas later Sunday, but will be more likely over east Texas and western Louisiana on Monday. Mixed precipitation will also be possible over northern New Mexico and southern Colorado Sunday and Monday.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Thursday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 inch or more are forecast for the northeast half of Texas into Oklahoma and Louisiana. The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 1.00 inch, are forecast northeast of the WGRFC area over northwest Louisiana and extreme northeast Texas. Lighter amounts of MAP are forecast for much of the WGRFC region...except for the southwest third of Texas and the southern three quarters of New Mexico.

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or more are forecast from southwest into central and north Texas into southern Oklahoma. The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 0.50 inch, are forecast over north Texas surrounding the DFW metroplex. MAP amounts of 0.50 inch are also forecast over the Del Rio TX area. Lighter amounts of MAP are forecast for much of the WGRFC region...except for far west Texas and the southeast half of New Mexico.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or more are forecast for roughly the southeastern half of Texas into most of Louisiana. The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 1.00 inch, are forecast over northeast Texas. Even heavier amounts are forecast east of our region over northern Louisiana. Lighter amounts of MAP are forecast for much of the WGRFC region...except for west Texas and the southeast two thirds of New Mexico.

For Saturday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast for extreme northeast Texas and over parts of south Texas. MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch are also forecast across southern Colorado into the northern Texas panhandle. Lighter amounts of MAP are forecast for much of the WGRFC region...except for southwest Texas and the southeast two thirds of New Mexico.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue across parts of New Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about a third of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (35%), and about 15% has extreme to exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, about two thirds of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (62%). Lake levels in the extreme drought areas of Texas are at or near historical lows for this time of year. Recent precipitation events have brought drought relief to parts of far west Texas, deep south Texas and roughly the southeast third of the state. The rainfall expected over the next five days over the WGRFC area could produce some minor runoff over north central and northeast Texas where the heaviest rainfall is forecast. However, no significant runoff is expected over the majority of the WGRFC area.

...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...San Bernard Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
The initial Flood Wave has crested at all sites along the San Bernard and in recession. The San Bernard near Boling (BOLT2) and Sweeny (SWYT2) are both above moderate flood levels but receding.

...Guadalupe Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
The flooding along the Guadalupe is making its way downstream with all points in recession. The Guadalupe River at Du Pont Plant near Bloomington (DUPT2) will remain above moderate flood levels for another day or so then begin to recede.

...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Most of the Neches River Basin is extremely saturated due to recent rainfall. As a result, minor flooding is occurring at several locations across the entire basin. These conditions are expected to continue for the next several days. River level recessions will be slow at most of these locations.

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The Sabine River at Mineola (MLAT2) remains in minor flood level but is expected to crest this afternoon and begin a slow recession later today and continue to fall. Further downstream, Deweyville near Ruliff (DWYT2) on the Sabine has crested but will remain at minor flood levels for a few more days then fall below criteria.

...Lavaca-Navidad Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
The West Mustang creek near Ganado (GNDT2) is still hovering above bankfull but receding and should be below action stage tomorrow.

...Trinity Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
The Trinity River at Moss Bluff (MBFT2) is expected to have a flat crest around action stage with little change through the forecast period.

...Nueces Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
The Nueces River near Tilden (TILT2) has been steadily increasing in flow and is now expected to rise slightly above action stage for a couple of days.

...Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
The Navasota River near Normangee (NGET2) is currently at higher than normal flow levels. The river at this location is currently falling but is expected to remain above criteria levels for the next several days. The remainder of the entire Brazos River system are below criteria levels.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
The rest of basins in the area are fairly dry, missing out on much of the recent beneficial rainfall over the past week. No significant flooding is expected outside of the areas with ongoing flooding.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook


...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

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