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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1113 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
VALID: SEPTEMBER 29 THROUGH OCTOBER 4
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES AS THE REMNANTS OF Tropical Storm ODILE MOVES EAST. NEW FRONT EXPECTED AFTER MIDWEEK...

The remnants of Tropical Storm Odile have moved to the east of the WGRFC area this morning. Meanwhile, a new storm system over the Great Basin and Desert Southwest is advancing east today into the central and southern Rockies. As Pacific Hurricane Rachel swirls off the southern Baja Mexico coast, abundant moisture is being streamed into the atmosphere and drawn northeast across northern Mexico and New Mexico. This increased moisture combined with a weak Pacific front is expected to produce numerous showers and thunderstorms across central and northeast New Mexico this afternoon into the overnight hours. Much drier air will will settle into the region Tuesday coinciding with the end of the monsoon season for the desert southwest.

As a new Pacific northwest trough drops into the central Rockies and northern New Mexico late Wednesday, an upper level disturbance is expected to bring a few showers over the northern mountains in New Mexico with the possibility of a light dusting of snow at higher elevations. Behind this is a second system moving southeast across the British Columbia coast that is expected to form a deep trough extending from North Dakota to the southwest through El Paso. This system will usher in drier air with little or no precipitation associated with its passing. What rainfall does occur is expected to fall in far east Texas and along the Gulf coast.

As the system advances, updates will be provided as we continue to monitor for any significant changes with the forecast models.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Tuesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch are forecast for central and northeast New Mexico.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Thursday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch are forecast for far east Texas and along the Gulf coast.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Drought conditions are slowly improving over Texas and New Mexico. Statewide, New Mexico has no areas of exceptional drought, while less than 2% of Texas remains in exceptional drought. Severe drought conditions are impacting less than 30% of New Mexico and 29% of Texas. Runoff is expected to continue across far west Texas, as well as over southeastern New Mexico for the few days. Runoff leading to significant mainstem river flooding may occur on the Pecos River in addition to flashy rises in southeast New Mexico and west Texas. No significant runoff is expected over the eastern portions of Texas for the forecast period.





...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...Rio Grande Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
With the forecast for drier weather the next few days for northern Mexico that feeds water into the Rio Grande, the chances of increased flows has come down from late last week. However, the lakes in Mexico are still full or filling and are holding significantly more water than they were a month ago. A return to a wet pattern later this fall would definitely increase the chances of flooding in the Presidio to Amistad Reservoir stretch of the river, but we should not see any increases in flows this week.

Current releases are starting to be decreased and locations along that stretch that are currently in minor flooding status should start to see recovery in a few days (PRST2),(PRDT2).

At the southern end of the Rio Grande, the Rio San Juan in Mexico has also seen increases in their water storage. Marte Gomez Reservoir is rising due to releases from the El Cuchillo Reservoir further upstream. It`s currently at 82 percent full (though they can hold more than 100 percent). That is up from 64% full a month ago. No plans for releases into the lower end of the Rio Grande is expected at this time.

No significant rainfall is forecast in the Conchos basin for the next five days. WGRFC will continue to monitor the Rio Grande conditions and adjust forecasts accordingly.

...Pecos Basin...
Red Bluff reservoir continues to spill and slowly fall with pool height of 2828.50 ft; current spill is about 1250 CFS. The reservoir level is expected to decline to near the spillway crest (2827.4 ft) by the end of this week.

Downstream of Red Bluff along the Pecos River, flows continue at bank full and out of bank down through Pecos where debris jams against railway and highway bridges have retarded the natural flow causing water to spread out over lower lying areas. The two flood waves generated downstream of Red Bluff. The first one from localized, heavy rainfall runoff and the second from Red Bluff spill, has finally started to show up further downstream at Girvin (GIVT2), though flows remain relatively small. Higher flows are expected through Girvin, but no impacts are anticipated at this time.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
All other basins are expected to remain near normal flow conditions.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather

...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

CAZIER

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