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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1041 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016
VALID: JULY 26 THROUGH JULY 31
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...

The ridge that had been keeping Texas hot and dry over the past few weeks has drifted westward and weakened, allowing some low level Gulf moisture to stream into the state. The flow is happening high enough into the atmosphere to allow shower and thunderstorm development to occur, beginning along the coast and pushing farther inland during the day. The ridge has been keeping a "CAP" on the atmosphere with a layer of warmer not allowing air to rise, but the mid level Gulf flow is allowing this CAP to break and storms to develop. This scenario is expected to continue through Thursday.

By Thursday the ridge of high pressure to our west will begin to strengthen once again over Utah. This will put Texas in more of a northwesterly upper air flow inhibiting the Gulf flow that is generating these daily thunderstorms. So expect a return to the hot and dry weather this weekend that has dominated much of the weather recently.

Monsoonal activity over New Mexico and Southern Colorado is expected to continue through the entire period with up to 0.25 inches of isolated rainfall possible each day.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Wednesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inches for the Gulf Coast region as well as the monsoonal regions on New Mexico.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inches over more Central and Eastern Texas.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inches for far Northeastern Texas.

For Friday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Soils continue to dry out across Texas due to the warm temperatures and a lack of significant rainfall. The U.S. Drought Monitor has categorized Texas as 13% abnormally dry, with almost 2% in moderate or greater drought. Over New Mexico, 77% of the state is abnormally dry, and 16% remains in the moderate drought category. Some rainfall is forecast over the next five days primarily over east and southeast Texas and western Louisiana. This will keep drought conditions from developing in this region, but only minor runoff is anticipated. The lack of heavy rainfall elsewhere will lead to continued drying through this forecast period and no significant runoff is expected.





...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...Trinity Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Lake Lewisville is decreasing their releases this morning. As a result, the Elm Fork of the Trinity River near Carrollton (CART2) is expected to fall below criteria levels later today. Further release reductions are anticipated later this week at both Lewisville and Grapevine Reservoirs.

...Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Minor rises are occurring this morning on the lower Brazos River due to locally heavy rain. River levels are expected to crest later today and begin falling. Above normal flows will continue along the lower Brazos River at Richmond (RMOT2) for the next several days.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Higher than normal seasonal flows are occurring in the eastern half of Texas. Some rain is expected across parts of the region over the next 5 days, but no significant river responses are expected over this time frame. Daily convective activity can cause minor rises anywhere in the forecast area, but most areas will not see significant convective activity this week.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather

...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

GIARDINO

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