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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1101 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015
VALID: FEBRUARY 26 THROUGH MARCH 3
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR TEXAS, AND A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN FOR NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...

A fairly strong cold front will clear the Texas Coast Thursday. Disturbances in the flow aloft have brought light snow and rain to a large portion of Texas, with moderate snow over Eastern New Mexico.

A well organized Pacific storm will track down the West Coast through the weekend. This will help shift the upper level pattern to a southwesterly flow aloft. This flow will help pump deeper Pacific moisture into the WGRFC area.

Weak disturbances over Texas could help initiate precipitation later Friday, continuing into Wednesday. Light to moderate precipitation is expected, especially for the eastern half of Texas.

For New Mexico and Southern Colorado, this southwesterly flow aloft will help continue to recent trend of significant snow events, especially for Southwest Colorado and Northwest Mexico. The previously mentioned upper level Pacific storm will hang around the Southwest U.S. through the middle of next week. Widespread snowfall is expected across New Mexico and Southern Colorado, with upslope areas receiving significant snow amounts. Some areas will measure new snow in "feet" increments through early next week. Widespread beneficial snowfall should help dent the below normal precipitation pattern for this area.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Friday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for most of New Mexico. Lighter MAP amounts are forecast for the remainder of the WGRFC area.

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for Southern Colorado and Northern New Mexico. Lighter MAP amounts are forecast for the remainder of the WGRFC area.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.50 to 1 inch are forecast for Southern Colorado and Northern New Mexico. MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for the remainder of the WGRFC area.

For Sunday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected over Southern Colorado and Northern New Mexico. MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for the remainder of New Mexico and for East Texas.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue across parts of New Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about a third of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (43%), and about 14% has extreme to exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, two thirds of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (68%), and 4% has extreme to exceptional drought conditions. Lake levels in these exceptional drought areas are at or near historical lows for this time of year. The most significant precipitation in the forecast the next five days is for New Mexico and Southern Colorado. No significant runoff is expected elsewhere the next five days.

...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Rainfall Wednesday has developed another small rise on the uppermost end of the Sabine River system with both Cowleech Fork at Greenville (GNVT2) and South Fork near Quinlan (QLAT2) having crested just above flood stage this afternoon. This water will flow into Lake Tawakoni which is still 10 feet below normal. Downstream, the gage at Mineola (MLAT2) is rising and should briefly reach action stage on Friday. Additional rainfall this weekend will cause additional rises and will need to be monitored for potential forecasts.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Most rivers are generally near normal baseflow conditions across the eastern WGRFC area and below normal across the western areas. Continued periods of cold rain and wintry precipitation over the area through Monday will be beneficial moisture as any frozen precipitation will slowly melt and infiltrate soils. A few criteria forecasts may be necessary in the flashier basins of east Texas through the period.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook


...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

WALLER

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