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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1049 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016
VALID: AUGUST 26 THROUGH AUGUST 31
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ALONG THE TEXAS COAST THIS WEEKEND...

A cluster of showers and thunderstorms developed early this morning from Candelaria down to Presidio, producing some minor flooding across the basin. This activity has decreased in intensity the past hour or so, however precipitation is expected to continue throughout the day. Abundant moisture from the Pacific, is expected to continue moving across the Rio Grande Valley through this weekend. As a result, higher than normal flows and/or minor flooding is possible.

Elsewhere, showers and thunderstorms associated with an easterly wave will impact portions of the southeast Texas coast through the weekend. Some scattered showers have already developed along the upper Texas coast this morning, however the main activity is offshore for now. One thing to note, there is a considerable amount of moisture flowing in from the Gulf of Mexico, and this should continue for the next few days. Therefore, the threat is high for very heavy rainfall, flash flooding and minor flooding to occur over the coastal areas this weekend. Rainfall amounts of 4-6 inches (isolated amounts up to 8 inches) are possible along the coastal areas of Texas and Louisiana, mainly Saturday through Monday.

By early next week, a ridge of high pressure will build back westward once again and deliver mostly dry conditions to most of Texas...excluding the Texas coast. Although a ridge of high pressure is forecast to dominate the area next week, there is still a lot of uncertainty on the development (if any) of an easterly wave over the Gulf of Mexico and a Tropical Wave moving through the Caribbean Sea. We will continue to monitor the forecast models over the weekend and update accordingly.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Saturday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for portions of Southeast, East Texas and the West Texas.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of up to 1.00 inch are forecast for the coastal areas of Texas and Louisiana. Lesser amounts are forecast for West Texas.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of up to 1.00 inch are forecast for the coastal area of Texas and Louisiana.

For Monday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of up to 1.00 inch are forecast for the coastal area of Texas and Louisiana, Deep South Texas.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

After the widespread rain the past seven days over parts of New Mexico and Texas, drought conditions have eased somewhat. The U.S. Drought Monitor has categorized Texas as 29% abnormally dry, with less than 1% in severe drought. Over New Mexico, 88% of the state is abnormally dry, and 24% remains in the moderate drought category. The showers and thunderstorms forecast this week will keep more serious drought conditions from developing over the WGRFC region, while many sections continue drought-free. Since topsoil has become moister, some runoff is possible where the heaviest rain is forecast. However, as the weather dries out some this week most of the runoff will be insignificant across the majority of the WGRFC area.





...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...Guadalupe Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Lower end of the Guadalupe River continues to move flood waters to the Gulf. The Guadalupe at Victoria (VICT2) continues to fall rapidly and Bloomington (DUPT2) has crested but will remain above flood stage for several more days.

...San Antonio Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
The Flood Wave generated near the San Antonio area has finally passed the last forecast point on the river system and flooding should come to a close over the weekend. New rises are possible, though, as rain returns to the region later this weekend.

...Rio Grande Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Heavy localized rains overnight have generated several waves of water causing a few locations to rise above flood stage. The first wave from the Rio Conchos is affecting the Presidio area and another wave from Terlingua creek has entered the mainstem near Castolon and is heading for the Big Bend region. Only monir flooding is expected at this time. Reservoirs on the Mexican side of the river continue to slowly fill from all the recent rainfall activity.

...Trinity Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Out of bank to minor flooding continues in the upper West Fork of the Trinity River from releases from Bridgeport, but should be coming to a close in a day or so as the lake reduces releases.

...Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
All locations continue to recede as flood waves move into reservoirs or into the Gulf. New rises are possible as precipitation returns to the area later this weekend.

...Nueces Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Flooding has ended on the Nueces River at Three Rivers (THET2) and all locations below Tilden are falling. Smaller waves are working their way down the mainstem of the Nueces and will cause higher than normal flow through the area over the next few days. Additional rises likely with precipitation returning to the region over the weekend.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Soils are back to being fairly saturated over large areas of the WGRFC region. With additional rainfall expected over the weekend, new rises are expected in many of our river systems over the next 5 days.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather

...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

MCCANTS

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