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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1031 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014
VALID: APRIL 22 THROUGH APRIL 27
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY IN EAST TEXAS WITH MORE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY...

Even with the passing of the frontal system overnight into this morning low level moisture is still abundant. Precipitable Water (PW) values are running near to slightly above normal for this time of year. Considering another trough moving east across the Rockies towards the central plains late Wednesday, there will be an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night mainly confined to north and east Texas. However, the chance for lingering rains remains low into Thursday morning as zonal flow returns to the area. Activity should remain isolated. Storms are also possible across the Texas coast during this timeframe.

A quick moving Pacific storm will move into the Pacific Northwest Wednesday, crossing into the Northern Plains by Thursday. This feature will drag a trough of low pressure over the area. This pattern on Thursday will look similar to the pattern over the last few days.

There is the chance of widespread significant rainfall for the WGRFC area starting later this weekend. The more reliable meteorological models have consistently advertised well-organized Pacific storm moving across the California Coast and cross the Desert Southwest this weekend. These models are showing a favorable environment for the development of heavy rainfall over the eastern 2/3 of the WGRFC area starting Sunday, and staying in the forecast through the end of their model runs.

If the models continue to advertise heavy rainfall in the same areas for the same time period, the confidence for a heavy rain event will increase. We will continue to monitor this possible event and will update accordingly.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Wednesday morning, no significant Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Friday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 are forecast for a narrow area from the Hill country north through the Possum Kingdom lake area and into Oklahoma.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

The drought conditions continue to deteriorate over most of the region. Almost all of New Mexico and 82% of Texas remain in some level of drought category. In addition, 29% of Texas and 25% of New Mexico are in extreme drought. Statewide, in Texas, reservoirs are, on average, less than 65% full. This is below average for this time of year, with average being about 80% full. There is considerable variability across the state, with many of the reservoirs in the western half of the state below 50% full. Due to the dry soil moisture conditions, the rainfall forecast over the next 5 days will not be heavy enough to produce significant runoff. Mainstem river flooding is not expected.

...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...Rio Grande Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Amistad releases are elevating flows along the mainstem from Amistad downstream to Falcon Lake. No significant impacts are expected, although the river at Columbia Bridge (CBBT2) is fluctuating above an action level for pumps and livestock in the area. The duration of Amistad releases is unknown at this time.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
No significant flooding is expected from rainfall forecast in the next 5 days. An event expected beyond the five day period is being monitored at this time.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook


...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

CAZIER

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