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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1056 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015
VALID: JANUARY 29 THROUGH FEBRUARY 3
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...RAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY FOR MOST PORTIONS OF THE WGRFC FORECAST AREA...

Moisture will continue to increase across portions of Colorado and New Mexico, in advance of this system. Tomorrow this system is forecast to deepen and move into California digging southward over Baja California. As this system slowly approaches from the west, showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop over Colorado and New Mexico and eventually become more widespread across most areas along and west of I-35.

Cooler and wetter conditions will arrive later tonight as the upper level storm system moves into New Mexico. Precipitation will be widespread over most of New Mexico and persist into Saturday. Significant, much needed snows are likely across the higher elevations, especially above 7500 feet, with a mix of rain and snow at lower elevations.

By late Friday/early Saturday, rains will continue to spread across the remainder of the WGRFC region, mainly for areas along and east of I-35 and along the southeast coast. Rainfall amounts may cause some minor flooding and isolated moderate flooding in basins across Southeast Texas. This especially applies to locations that are currently experiencing minor flooding from last week`s rainfall event. By Sunday, a cold front is expected to push south across Texas allowing precipitation to quickly end across the region. Conditions will once again dry out temporarily with more rains expected along the southeast coastal basins mid week.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Friday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 of an inch are forecast for southwestern New Mexico.

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.50 of an inch are forecast for most of New Mexico extending into far west Texas with MAP amounts of 0.25 covering the remaining western half of Texas.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are forecast for the eastern half of New Mexico and a large portion of Texas with the heaviest amounts over the upper Brazos and portions of the upper Colorado river basins.

For Sunday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 are forecast for the coastal basins of Texas from Brownsville northeast through Louisiana.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue across parts of New Mexico and Texas. In Texas, almost half the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (39%), and 11% has extreme to exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, nearly two thirds of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (65%), and 4% has extreme to exceptional drought conditions. Outside of east and southeast Texas, soils are generally dry.

...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...Trinity Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The Trinity River at Bluff (MBFT2) will remain above criteria for the next few days.

...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Minor flooding continues on the Neches and Angelina rivers. Flooding near Diboll (DIBT2) and Lufkin (LUFT2) will continue for the next few days. Attoyac Bayou near Chireno (ATBT2) will continue to slowly fall.

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The Sabine River at Deweyville (DWYT2) remains steady above minor flood criteria at this time based on reservoir releases upstream.

...Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
The Brazos River at Richmond (RMOT2) has crested and will fall below criteria this week.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
All other forecast locations are at or near seasonal flows. Forecast rainfall this weekend and next week could generate some runoff, especially over the coastal basins and basins across Southeast Texas where soils are saturated. Widespread flooding is not expected over the next 5 days.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook


...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

CAZIER

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