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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1110 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014
VALID: SEPTEMBER 21 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 26
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...RAINFALL WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE WGRFC AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MILDER AND DRIER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK...

The large scale pattern is being driven by an upper level ridge over Texas with a pair of potent upper level storm systems, one over the Great Lakes and the other over Nevada. The latter "Nevada" storm should slowly lift northeast toward the Northern Rockies, with the "Great Lakes" storm moving steadily east. This combination should push a cold front through Texas. However, this front will not have enough push to clear the WGRFC area, with a mostly easterly flow expected Monday. If anything, this will enhance the large scale lift over New Mexico and West Texas, resulting in more rainfall.

Precipitable Water (PW) values are running 150% to 200% of normal, courtesy of remnant Pacific moisture from the last few E. Pacific tropical systems and low level moisture riding up the Rio Grande from the Gulf of Mexico. With no large scale pattern changes in the short term, more rainfall is expected for the western portions of the WGRFC area through Monday.

The upper level ridge over the area build west as the week progresses. This should help inhibit some of the areal coverage of the area of precipitation. However, rain chances will remain in the forecast for the WGRFC through mid week, with the exception of Northeast and East Texas.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Monday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected for Southeast New Mexico. MAP amounts of 0.50 to 1 inch are forecast for the remainder of New Mexico and for Northern Mexico across from Deep South Texas. Lighter MAP amounts are expected for the remainder of the western half of Texas.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.50 to 1 inch are forecast for Southeast New Mexico. MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for the remainder of New Mexico and for West Texas. Lighter MAP amounts are expected for South and Southeast Texas.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for the western half of the WGRFC area.

For Wednesday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for West Texas and for Deep South Texas.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Drought persists but is slowly improving over Texas and New Mexico. Statewide, New Mexico has no areas of exceptional drought, while less than 2% of Texas remains in exceptional drought. Severe drought conditions are impacting less than 40% of New Mexico and 35% of Texas. Runoff is expected to continue across far west Texas, as well as over southeastern New Mexico for the few days. Runoff leading to significant mainstem river flooding may occur on the Pecos River in addition to flood" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">flash flooding in southeast New Mexico and west Texas. No significant runoff is expected over the eastern portions of Texas for the forecast period.





...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...Rio Grande Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The largest concern in the Rio Grande basin continues to be potential flows from the Rio Conchos out of northern Mexico into the Rio Grande at Presidio. Current forecasts are for minor flood levels at Presido downstream of the International Bridge (PRST2) and at the weir (PRDT2). Flows in the Rio Conchos have been stable with little change. No significant rainfall is forecast in the Conchos basin for the next five days. WGRFC will continue to monitor the Rio Grande river conditions and adjust forecasts accordingly.

...Pecos Basin...
...Bankfull and above...
The large flows in the tributaries above Brantley Reservoir continue to recede. Brantley reservoir has adequate storage available such that it will not be making releases to contribute to existing downstream flooding. Downstream, the current level in Lake Avalon is near conservation pool and continues to rise however no significant spillway flows are expected. Red Bluff reservoir continues to rise. There is the possibility that discharges from Red Bluff reservoir could contribute to the existing overbank flow conditions between Red Bluff reservoir and Pecos. Stage/flow data for that section of the Pecos River is limited.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Rainfall has continued across many parts of WGRFC with soil states nearing saturation for most areas with exception of the northeast Texas basins. These wet areas of the WGRFC will likely again see precipitation in some form of intensity today, but the current forecast displays no rises beyond minor flooding at this time.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather

...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

WALLER

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