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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1113 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016
VALID: SEPTEMBER 24 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 29
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS FORECAST THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

Widespread convective precipitation can be expected over the next few days, with a focus on western Texas. A potent upper level low pressure system centered over Wyoming has resulted in moist southwesterly flow in the upper atmosphere over western Texas. A cold front has stalled along the western reaches of the Texas Panhandle. As of late this Saturday morning, there is not much precipitation in the area, but convective storms can be expected to develop by this evening in western Texas as another upper level low pressure system develops over southeastern Arizona. Locally heavy rainfall can be expected overnight.

The new upper level system is forecast to drift southward into northwestern Mexico on Sunday, and the cold front will begin progressing southeastward through Texas. As the cold front advances across Texas later Sunday into Monday, the rainfall will increase in both coverage and intensity, but with the focus for heavy rainfall remaining in the western half of the state. Widespread rain in excess of two inches is forecast for most of western Texas from tonight through early Tuesday. Locally higher amounts should be expected, with isolated storm total amounts as high as 8 inches currently forecast.

The cold front is forecast to exit the region by mid-week with a return of drier weather combined with noticeably cooler temperatures. However, continued availability of tropical moisture will produce the potential for showers and thunderstorms in northwestern Mexico, potentially affecting the Rio Conchos and the Rio Grande above the Big Bend.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Sunday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 1 to 2 inches are forecast for portions of southwestern Texas from the Big Bend to Amistad Reservoir and into the western Hill Country. MAP amounts of 1 to 2 inches are also forecast for portions of northwestern Texas near the Red River. MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are expected for most of the rest of western Texas and for portions of the Texas coast.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 2 to 5 inches are forecast for the Permian Basin and western Hill Country of Texas. MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are forecast for portions of the Texas coast.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 1 to 2 inches are forecast along a large stretch of the Rio Grande from Big Bend to Falcon Lake. MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are forecast for most of the rest of southern and western Texas.

For Tuesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are forecast for the lower Rio Grande Valley and for portions of the Texas coast.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Because of the widespread rain over the past few weeks over parts of New Mexico and Texas, drought conditions remain favorable. The U.S. Drought Monitor categorizes Texas as 4.5% abnormally dry, with almost 1% in severe drought. New Mexico remains unchanged this week with 47% of the state abnormally dry and 4% in the moderate drought category.





...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...WGRFC Basins...
Soils remain relatively wet over the eastern two-thirds of the region. Further out west, the soils continue dry and likely enough to handle most of the upcoming rain expected later this weekend into early next week. However, the rainfall amounts expected could generate minor or greater flooding in localized headwater areas within the Texas Hill Country. Additionally, reservoirs in Mexico within the Rio Conchos drainage along with reservoirs within smaller Mexico watersheds that directly drain into the mainstem between Amistad and Falcon Reservoirs, are near conservation and may begin regulation. This would affect Rio Grande flows from Presidio downstream through Laredo with the onset of any heavy, widespread rainfall within those areas of Mexico.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather

...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

PHILPOTT

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