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ISSUED: 1111 AM CST WED NOV 25 2015
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map


Today will be one more mostly dry day for the WGRFC area of responsibility. At the surface, a moist southerly flow of Gulf moisture has begun, but dry westerly flow continues aloft. Therefore, only light showers can be expected today, with a slight increase in activity through Thursday evening. More significant rainfall begins late Thursday.

A strong upper level low has now moved over northwestern Nevada. This is forecast to further shift slightly southeast today and then remain over the Great Basin of Nevada and Utah through Monday of next week. Southwesterly flow will develop aloft over the WGRFC area of responsibility and persist through the weekend. At the surface, by late Thursday, a strong cold front is expected to enter North Texas and then move slowly across the state on Friday. The cold front and upper level pattern will combine to produce conditions favorable for prolonged rainfall over much of the WGRFC area, especially over the state of Texas. In addition, the weather models are also forecasting that Pacific Hurricane Sandra will move over northwestern Mexico as a Tropical Storm on Saturday before dissipating over land on Sunday. This system could cause some additional moisture to interact with the upper level storm system and enhance the heavy rainfall threat in Texas over the weekend.

In general, rainfall amounts of up to 8.00 inches are expected for areas along and north of I-20 over the late Thursday through Sunday period, with the highest amounts near the Red River. We will continue to monitor the model guidance for any changes, and will update accordingly.


Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Thursday morning, no significant Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 1 to 3 inches are forecast for portions of North Texas. MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are forecast for portions of southern Colorado, eastern and southern New Mexico, and the northwestern two thirds of Texas.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 2 to 4 inches are forecast for most of north central and northeastern Texas. MAP amounts of 1 to 2 inches are forecast for most of central and southwestern Texas. MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are forecast for most of southern Colorado, eastern New Mexico, and most of the rest of Texas.

For Saturday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 1.5 to 2.5 inches are forecast for most of north central and northeastern Texas. MAP amounts of 0.5 to 1.5 inch are forecast for portions of central and southwestern Texas. MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inch are forecast for most of the rest of Texas.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Topsoil moisture has increased significantly with recent rainfall events which means it will require less rainfall for runoff to occur. That, along with the vegetation becoming more dormant as the growing season comes to an end, means runoff will be quicker. Over Texas only 7% of the state is abnormally dry, while over New Mexico, 26% of the state is abnormally dry. Heavy rainfall amounts of up to 8 inches over several days from late Thursday through the weekend could lead to some potentially significant runoff because of the wet soil moisture and cold season vegetation patterns.


Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...Trinity Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
River stages continue to fall across the lower Trinity River. Liberty (LBYT2) has fallen below minor flood level. Minor flooding is still occurring downstream at Moss Bluff (MBFT2). Lake Livingston continues to make releases, passing upstream inflow.

...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Higher than normal flows with minor flooding continue at various locations across the Neches River basin. River stages have crested and are falling. However, heavy rainfall is anticipated Friday through Saturday which may cause minor flooding in the headwater basins.

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Recent heavy rainfall throughout the Sabine River basin has generated higher bankfull and minor flood level flows. These flows levels are now receding. Toledo Bend Reservoir will continue generating power 24 hours per day, 7 days per week at one unit of power generation.

Additional heavy rainfall is expected Friday through Saturday which could cause significant flooding in the headwaters.

...Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Higher flows are occurring on the Navasota River and lower Brazos River. River stages have crested and are slowly receding.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Soil moisture remains high across many river basins in the eastern half of Texas because of recent rainfall. Additional heavy rainfall is expected near the end of this week that could cause another round of flooding in the headwaters of the Sabine, Neches and portions of the Trinity.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor

Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather


The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at:

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:

National Precipitation Analysis:

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:

The US Drought Assessment:

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:


$$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.