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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1111 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
VALID: JULY 30 THROUGH AUGUST 4
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW...

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are occurring across most of Oklahoma and portions of North Texas. This activity is associated with a lingering frontal boundary and upper level disturbance, which is also expected to impact the remaining areas of Texas tonight and tomorrow. Over the next several hours, rainfall is expected to increase in intensity across Central and Southern Oklahoma as the frontal boundary moves over this area later this afternoon. Current rainfall rates are averaging 0.50 to 1.00 inch per hour. However, this activity is situated just north of the forecast area, therefore it is not forecast to significantly impact any of the river systems. Elsewhere, conditions across New Mexico and Colorado will remain dry through this evening.

By tonight, the focus for heavy rainfall will shift towards the Red River and areas toward the south, as an approaching upper level disturbance moves southeastward over the forecast area. And by tomorrow morning, another round of showers and thunderstorms is possible as the cold front finally pushes across the area. Abundant moisture is questionable at this time across portions of North Texas. However some of the forecast models are indicating the possibility of some additional significant rainfall affecting areas across northeast Texas. As the cold front continues to move southward, rainfall is expected to increase in coverage across most of East and Southeast Texas through tomorrow. Moisture availability as well as an increase in southerly flow will allow some of the storms to produce heavy rainfall at times. We will continue to monitor this activity over the next few days, however at this time we are not expecting any significant flooding across any river systems.

As the cold front finally makes it to the coast by Friday, drier and milder air will begin to dominate most of the WGRFC area. Conditions across Colorado and New Mexico will once again see the influences of the Monsoon through next week.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Thursday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 1.00 to 3.00 inches are forecast for portions of Central Oklahoma. Lesser amount of an inch or less are forecast for areas along the Red River and portions of North Texas.

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of up to 1.00 inch are forecast for portions of the Northeast and East Texas. Lesser amounts are forecast for areas across Colorado and New Mexico.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of up to 1.00 inch are forecast for portions of Colorado and New Mexico. Lesser amounts are forecast for portions of Southeast Texas.

For Saturday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for portions of Southeast and Southwest Texas.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Extreme to exceptional drought persists over parts of southwest Texas, as well as over the western parts of north Texas into the Texas Panhandle and northeast New Mexico. Statewide, less than 1% of New Mexico and about 3% of Texas are in exceptional drought. But, severe drought conditions are impacting 78% of New Mexico and 33% of Texas. The monsoonal rains in New Mexico have reduced the drought conditions over the past couple weeks, while over Texas the drought has diminished over roughly the southeast quarter. More rain is forecast the next 5 days over New Mexico which will help to ease the drought conditions, but over Texas rainfall amounts will be minimal and will be concentrated mainly along and near the Gulf coast. Therefore, no significant runoff is expected the next 5 days.





...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...Pecos Basin...
Monsoonal activity continues in eastern New Mexico with widespread rains. Locally heavy rains near Puerto de Luna caused enough runoff to cause the Pecos at this location to crest slightly above minor flood stage yesterday evening. The river has subsided and is returning to seasonal flows. The rain is expected to continue through Thursday into Saturday morning with heavier amounts anticipated for Friday afternoon into Saturday. This activity will be closely monitored for any additional heavy runoff episodes.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
All other WGRFC river forecast locations are flowing near or below normal for this time of year. Storm activity is expected to increase in north and east Texas as well as in the upper Rio Grande valley near Albuquerque over the next few days. Minor flooding is possible in various areas that experience more intense rains. At this time no major flood activity is expected with this monsoonal rainfall. Conditions will be closely monitored.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather

...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

MCCANTS

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