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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1042 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016
VALID: MAY 22 THROUGH MAY 27
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...LITTLE CHANGE AS THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS...

The upper level pattern remains stuck in "neutral" as a southwesterly flow aloft around an upper level ridge near the Mississippi River Valley will keep the WGRFC area in a "wet-ish" pattern. Abundant low level moisture remains in place. The main variable in forecast thunderstorm development is the surface trigger mechanism. Maybe daytime heating helps provide the lift. In some cases, leftover outflow boundaries from previous day`s thunderstorms may provide the necessary lift. Regardless of what drives convective initiation, the upper level pattern will remain favorable for a repeat each day into holiday weekend...

It will rain over the WGRFC area the next 5 days. Some areas will receive little to no rain. Some areas could see pockets of very heavy rainfall, especially in and near the strongest thunderstorms. Widespread significant rainfall is not expected.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Monday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.50 to 1 inch are forecast for portions of the Upper Texas Coast and for portions of the Red River along the Texas/Oklahoma border. MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are expected across the remainder of Texas.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for the eastern half of Texas. Lighter MAP amounts are expected elsewhere.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for Northeast Texas, and points south and west toward the Hill Country.

For Wednesday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.50 to 1 inch are expected along and east of the I-35 Corridor. MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for the entire Texas Coast and for West Central Texas, from the Concho Valley north to the Big Country.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Soils are fairly moist across a good part of the state, especially the eastern half. 3% of Texas is categorized as abnormally dry, with less than 1% of the state in the moderate drought category. Over New Mexico, 83% of the state is abnormally dry, and 40% remains in the moderate drought category. The rainfall the next 5 days will not be heavy enough for widespread significant runoff.





...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...San Bernard Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
The mainstem along the San Bernard remains at elevated flows as the flood waters are routed downstream. Very local heavy rains have pushed Sweeny (SWYT2) into minor flood levels this morning. The site is expected to reach moderate flood levels this afternoon and crest slightly above 17 feet.

...Guadalupe Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Heavy rain Tuesday night and.a bout of heavy rains Wednesday generated enough runoff. to bring Victoria (VICT2) and Bloomington (DUPT2) into moderate flood levels over the forecast period.

...San Antonio Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Locally heavy rainfall produced rises across the San Antonio System. Upstream/headwater points have crested. The San Antonio near Runge (SRRT2) is cresting in moderate flood levels over the next 24 hours. this routed water will push Goliad (GLIT2) near but slightly below moderate flood levels. Routed waters from Runge will attenuate slightly before arriving at Goliad.

...Lavaca-Navidad Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Locally heavy rains caused some parts of the Lavaca-Navidad river system to rise into higher flood levels over the past couple of days.

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Toledo Bend Reservoir continues to pass inflows, keeping the lower Sabine River at higher than normal levels with minor flooding downstream at Deweyville (DWYT2).

...Brazos Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Higher than normal flows are occurring on portions of the Brazos due to recent rainfall and releases from upstream flood control reservoirs.

...Colorado Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Heavy rains have generated higher flows at points along the mainstem of the Colorado from the routed waters.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Soils remain wet over most of the eastern half of the WGRFC forecast area. Any widespread heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding on the smaller flashier headwater basins.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather

...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

WALLER

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