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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1102 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015
VALID: JULY 31 THROUGH AUGUST 5
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...HOT AND DRY WEATHER WIDESPREAD IN TEXAS WHILE MONSOONAL RAINS CONTINUE OVER NEW MEXICO AND FAR NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...

Thunderstorm activity late this Friday morning is currently concentrated on the northern Texas Panhandle, outside of the WGRFC area of responsibility. Isolated light showers without thunder are located to the south of Austin, Texas and are expected to produce only light rain as they drift westward towards the Rio Grande today and this evening.

An upper level high pressure ridge is anchored over New Mexico and the Four Corners Region and will continue to dominate the weather over Texas and New Mexico into next week. Hot and dry conditions are expected to persist across most of Texas, with a chance for scattered mostly insignificant rainfall amounts. Much more widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms are expected each day underneath the ridge in New Mexico, southern Colorado, and northwestern Texas, where abundant monsoonal atmospheric moisture is in place. Some of these storms will produce locally heavy rainfall and a potential for flash flooding, especially from now into the weekend.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Saturday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 1.5 inches are forecast for portions of New Mexico and the northern Texas Panhandle. MAP amounts of up to 0.25 inch are forecast for portions of South Texas and for southern Colorado.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1.5 inch are forecast for portions of the Texas Panhandle. MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inch are forecast for portions of New Mexico and southern Colorado. Lesser MAP amounts are forecast for the Rolling Plains of Texas and into western portions of North Texas.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are forecast for portions of the Texas Panhandle into western portions of North Texas. Similar amounts are forecast for portions of northern New Mexico and southern Colorado. Lesser MAP amounts are forecast for the rest of New Mexico and for portions of the Rolling Plains of Texas.

For Monday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of up to 0.25 inch are forecast for isolated portions of New Mexico, Colorado, northwestern Texas, and East Texas.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Lakes over the northeastern half of Texas are still releasing water according to regulation rules and schedules. Soil moisture has been very high across much of Texas from rainfall over the past two months. However, with the dry spell through July, topsoil continues to dry out in Texas. The rainfall forecast over the next five days will not be heavy enough to cause significant runoff except over the mountainous areas of New Mexico.





...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...Trinity Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Increased releases from Lewisville and Grapevine will push Carrolton into flood stage for the forecast period. This will be updated as further release information is acquired from the Corps on their projections over the next few days.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
The remainder of WGRFC rivers are flowing below criteria at near or above normal baseflow conditions. Significant rainfall is not forecast in the WGRFC area in the next 5 days.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather

...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

PHILPOTT

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