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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1124 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014
VALID: AUGUST 30 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 4
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE COAST BUT NOT MAKING IT INLAND...

The front from the upper level trough has pushed through as the trough has now dampened out and become part of the westerlies. The main impact for today will be the continued onshore flow of tropical moisture bringing at times heavy precipitation along the coast. As much as 3 inches per hour rainfalls have been recorded so far this morning, but this rainfall has not pushed very far inland. This strong stream of moisture is aided by a strong upper level high pressure system off the Carolina coast causing a consistent flow over the Gulf towards the Texas and Louisiana Gulf coast. This should continue for the next 24 to 48 hours, but no precipitation is expected to make it very far inland. The heavier rainfall will be focused to the east for the lower Sabine and Neches River basins, but not expected to have an impact at many river sites. Some out of bank flooding may occur for the lower Sabine but is not forecasted at this time.

The coastal rainfall may continue into next week, but not to be as extreme as yesterday and today. The rest of the WGRFC looks to have zonal dry air aloft and will keep the area fairly dry. Monsoonal precipitation over New Mexico is even expected to be limited over the forecast period as the abundance of upper level dry air will limit thunderstorm development. There is still a small possibility of another Tropical Wave reaching the Bay of Campeche which could bring even more rainfall to south Texas later next week.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Sunday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of an inch are forecasted by WPC for eastern Texas. A half an inch is possible for the Gulf coast with 0.25 inches just a few miles inland.

For Sunday into Monday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Monday into Tuesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Tuesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.5 inches are possible for the Brownsville area.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Drought persists over Texas and New Mexico. Statewide, New Mexico has no areas of exceptional drought while less than 3% of Texas remains in exceptional drought. Severe drought conditions are impacting 40% of New Mexico and 34% of Texas. The monsoonal rains in New Mexico continue to ease the drought conditions in many areas of the state. Some runoff can be expected along the immediate Texas Gulf coast the next 5 days, but minor or no runoff is anticipated elsewhere.





...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...WGRFC Basins...
River conditions across the WGRFC area remain near or below seasonal flows. Locally heavy rainfall is occurring along the Texas Gulf Coast and in the lower Sabine River basin. Runoff is possible in river basins in these areas. However, no significant flooding is forecast to occur through the forecast period.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather

...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

GIARDINO

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