National Weather Service River Forecast Center

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE PICTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

A well advertised upper level storm over the Central Plains will gradually slide east and weaken over the next several days. The broad upper level trough of low pressure over the WGRFC area will also move east, and a weak upper level ridge will build into the region by Wednesday.

These features will aid in the development of showers and thunderstorms. A well defined dry line over West Texas will push east throughout the day Monday. This dry line could provide enough lift, enhanced by peak daytime heating, to generate thunderstorms.

A subtle change Tuesday could lead to a significant rain event for Texas later Tuesday into Wednesday. A strong upper level disturbance associated with the trough is expected to cross Texas late Tuesday. With ample moisture in place, an organized complex of thunderstorms is possible. Locally heavy rainfall is possible for the central portions of the Brazos River north and east toward the Sabine River. Meteorological models have contine to show a similar scenario for the same area for four consecutive days, adding to the confidence in this forecast.

At this time, the upper level trough will weaken as it slides further east. Precipitation is expected to linger over East Texas and the Texas Coast Wednesday and Thursday. Thunderstorm activity will eventually shift back north and west from the Panhandle south to the Big Bend Thursday as another strong storm system is expected to move into the Pacific Coast Thursday. Thunderstorm chances will remain in place into the weekend.

We will continue to monitor and will update accordingly.

For Today into Tuesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for North Central and Central Texas.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 1.50 to 2 inches are forecast for East Texas. MAP amounts of 0.50 to 1 inch are forecast for the remainder of Texas east of U.S. Highway 281 and north of Interstate 10. MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for the remainder of Texas east of a Wichita Falls to Del Rio line. Lighter MAP amounts are possible for Southern Colorado.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for Southeast Texas and the Texas coasts.

For Thursday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for the Texas Panhandle south to the Rolling Plains and the Big Bend area. Lighter MAP amounts are expected for the remainder of the WGRFC area.

The ongoing drought remains entrenched across the entire WGRFC area. About 68 percent of Texas remains in severe drought, or worse. In New Mexico, drought conditions are even more widespread, with nearly 97 percent of the state in severe to exceptional drought. Localized runoff is possible in the stronger thunderstorms. Widespread significant runoff is possible late Tuesday and Wednesday for parts of Central and East Texas. Mainstem river flooding is possible in the heavier rainfall. Widespread river flooding is not expected.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

WALLER

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