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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1057 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
VALID: APRIL 24 THROUGH APRIL 29
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE WGRFC AREA THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...

Heavy rains still continue to impact portions of the WGRFC area this morning. An area of showers and thunderstorms is currently moving over portions of southeast Texas...mainly affecting the lower Trinity and Neches River systems. Rainfall amounts are averaging 1 to 2 inches per hour, and this trend should continue through noon. Another area of showers and thunderstorms stretches from West Texas towards the Oklahoma. Rainfall amounts associated with this activity are averaging less than 1 inch per hour. Over the past several hours, some minor rises occurred across the San Antonio River system, however no significant river flooding has been reported.

Overall, our region continues to be under a southwesterly upper air flow which will keep our weather unsettled through tomorrow morning, as an upper level low approaches from the west. Ahead of this low, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along and east of the dry line. During the afternoon and evening hours, heavy rainfall with the possibility of severe weather is expected over a good part of Texas and Louisiana through tomorrow. Some additional minor rises are expected across some river basins across southeast Texas. However, widespread moderate or major flooding is not expected.

By late tonight the low pressure system will move over Kansas, with dry air moving into Texas from the west. This will cause the rainfall to diminish late tonight and tomorrow over most of the area except for Texas Gulf coastal region. Thereafter, a weak ridge of high pressure will bring dry weather for most of the region for tomorrow and Sunday morning.

By Sunday a new low pressure system is forecast to develop and move toward the four corners region. This will bring mixed precipitation over northern New Mexico and southern Colorado Sunday and Monday. And over Texas there will be another chance for showers and thunderstorms later Sunday, but will be more likely over east Texas and Louisiana on Monday.

By Monday night another low pressure system is forecast to move over Oklahoma. Some wrap-around rainfall is possible across northern Texas late Monday into Tuesday.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Saturday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of up to 1.50 inch are forecast for areas from Laredo to Texarkana. Mainly east of I-35.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for Central Texas. Lesser amounts are forecast for New Mexico and Colorado.

For Monday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 1.00 to 2.00 inches are forecast for portions of North Texas...including areas along the Red River. Lesser amounts are forecast for areas stretching from the Texas Panhandle down to the upper Texas coast.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue across parts of New Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about a third of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (35%), and about 9% has extreme to exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, a little over half of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (58%). Lake levels in the extreme drought areas of Texas are at or near historical lows for this time of year. Recent precipitation events have brought drought relief to parts of far west Texas, south Texas and roughly the southeast third of the state. The rainfall expected over the next five days over the WGRFC area could produce some runoff over east central and northeast Texas where the heaviest rainfall is forecast. No significant runoff is expected over the remainder of the WGRFC area.

...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...Brazos Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Releases from Lake Limestone should cause the Navasota River at Easterly and Normangee to rise above flood stage.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Minor flooding is occurring in the Brazos, Guadalupe, Neches, Sabine, Trinity, and San Bernard River basins. Additional rainfall is expected across WGRFC however no significant flooding is forecast in the next 5 days.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook


...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

MCCANTS

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