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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1107 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
VALID: MARCH 27 THROUGH APRIL 1
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND OVER THE WGRFC AREA...

Very light precipitation is occurring along a weak cold front, draped across central Oklahoma. Rainfall amounts are averaging 0.10 inch per hour. This activity is expected to remain very light, and should not cause any additional river issues. Elsewhere, a large ridge of high pressure will continue to build over the western third of the U.S. This ridge will move slowly eastward and will be located over western Texas by Monday morning.

The ridge should begin to weaken on Monday. This will allow a weak cold front to approach our region from the north, and this front may produce a few showers over northeast Texas. Meanwhile, a new storm is forecast to form over Baja California. This storm is forecast to move eastward, and it will bring another chance for rain to parts of New Mexico, southern Colorado, and southwest Texas later Monday into Tuesday morning. A better chance for showers and thunderstorms exists for Texas just beyond this five-day forecast period...mainly within the Tuesday-Thursday time frame.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Saturday morning, no significant Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Sunday into Monday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Monday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for portions of Central and South Texas.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue across parts of New Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about a third of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (36%), and about 14% has extreme to exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, about two thirds of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (62%). Lake levels in these extreme drought areas are at or near historical lows for this time of year. Recent precipitation events have brought some drought relief, with no drought remaining over deep south, east central and southeast Texas into western Louisiana. The rainfall which is forecast the next five days over the WGRFC area will not be heavy enough to create new or additional runoff.

...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...Sabine Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Above Toledo Bend reservoir, elevated flows remain at Logansport (LPTL1). Reservoir releases have decreased this morning, so falling stages can be expected to begin to work their way downstream on the lower Sabine River. Moderate flood conditions continue at Bon Wier (BWRT2) and a slight additional rise over the next day to moderate flood stage is expected at Deweyville (DWYT2).

...Guadalupe Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Routed water is forecast to keep Bloomington (DUPT2) above minor flood level for a day or so more.

...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Widespread minor flooding continues throughout the Neches and Angelina River mainstems and associated bayous. Although minor flood conditions will continue through this week, most have crested and are slowly receding. Sam Rayburn Reservoir has resumed limited generation that will allow flood storage to be slowly evacuated. Lake Steinhagen releases will continue to hold near 20,000 CFS until Sam Rayburn Lake is able to completely evacuate the flood pool, likely via generation. This process is expected to take several weeks.

...San Bernard Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Higher flows occurred near East Bernard (EBBT2) is still above bankfull levels but receding. A secondary rise crested into minor flood stage near Boling (BOLT2). This reach of the river is expected to remain high over the next few days. Sweeny (SWYT2) will also fluctuate above action stage for several days.

...Trinity Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Bankfull flooding is still occurring in the lower Trinity at Liberty (LBYT2) and Moss Bluff (MBFT2) but are in recession with no significant rainfall in the forecast..

...Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
The Navasota River near Normangee (NGET2) is still above bankfull and continues to fall.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Soils are very wet over east and southeast Texas after the recent rainfall episode. No significant rainfall is in the forecast for the next 5 days or so.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook


...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

MCCANTS

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