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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1102 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015
VALID: JANUARY 27 THROUGH FEBRUARY 1
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE WGRFC AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BUT RAIN ARRIVES BY THE END OF THE WEEK...

Warm and dry weather will continue across most of the region through Thursday, as an upper level ridge remains centered over the Central Plains. Elsewhere, a low pressure system was located over the eastern Pacific Ocean, well west of Baja California. Some very light precipitation was reported across New Mexico and southwestern portions of Texas, however no river rises occurred with this activity.

By Thursday, a ridge of high pressure will be positioned over Mexico as the Pacific storm system moves east into California. The combination of these systems will push higher amounts of moisture from the Pacific into the western parts of the WGRFC area. Since the low over California will be a very slow moving system into Saturday, light precipitation will develop over southern Colorado, New Mexico and far west Texas by Thursday night into Friday. Then as the low gets a bit further east into Arizona the low will likely produce widespread light rain over the southwest half of Texas as well by Saturday morning. Some of the forecast models have a piece of energy breaking off from the main upper level storm system, and developing into a closed low over the southwest U.S. This will bring another chance of precipitation to portions of the Rio Grande and South Texas by early next week. This solution is past the WGRFC forecast time frame, however it is worth mentioning at this time, since soils are still saturated across those area and may cause additional flooding.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Wednesday morning, no significant Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for portions of New Mexico and West Texas.

For Friday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of up to 1.00 inch are forecast for all portions of the WGRFC region.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue across parts of New Mexico and Texas. In Texas, almost half the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (41%), and 11% has extreme to exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, nearly two thirds of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (65%), and 4% has extreme to exceptional drought conditions. Outside of east and southeast Texas, soils are generally dry. The current precipitation forecast the next five days will not be heavy enough to produce new or additional runoff.

...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...Trinity Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The Trinity River at Liberty (LBYT2) and Moss Bluff (MBFT2) will remain above criteria for the next few days. Moss Bluff will rise to flood stage and hold.

...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Minor flooding continues on the Neches and Angelina rivers. Flooding near Diboll (DIBT2) and Lufkin (LUFT2) will continue for the next few days. Attoyac Bayou near Chireno (ATBT2) has crested and will slowly fall. Pine Island near Sour Lake (SOLT2) is above criteria, but it will slowly fall through the week.

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The Sabine River at Deweyville (DWYT2) remains steady above minor flood criteria at this time based on reservoir releases upstream.

...Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
The Brazos River System and its tributaries have crested and will slowly fall below criteria over the next few days. Forecast rainfall this weekend could generate runoff and new criteria forecasts later in the weekend..

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
All other forecast locations are at or near seasonal flows. Forecast rainfall later this week could generate some runoff, especially over the coastal basins and basins across Southeast Texas where soils are saturated. Widespread flooding is not expected over the next 5 days.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook


...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

MCCANTS

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