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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1042 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014
VALID: APRIL 19 THROUGH APRIL 24
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...

An upper level storm over the Desert Southwest will help increase the chances of precipitation over the WGRFC area over the next several days. Precipitable Water (PW) values over Far West Texas and New Mexico are running 200% of normal. The southwesterly flow aloft, east of the previously mentioned storm system, is providing a favorable environment for widespread light to moderate precipitation across the area. Over the next 24 hours, this storm system will slide east and weaken. The focus for precipitation should also slide east. Abundant low level moisture should help in the precipitation chances. Widespread thunderstorms and/or severe weather is not expected as upper level dynamics are not favorable for the typical, powerful spring thunderstorm setup.

An upper level ridge will form over the WGRFC area by Monday, as a strong Pacific storm system moves into the Pacific Northwest. This storm should cross the Northern Rockies Tuesday and Wednesday, shifting the upper level ridge over Texas. Precipitation chances will decrease in response to the ridge exerting its influence on the region.

Rain chances will return later next week as the Pacific storm and the associated long wave trough sweep through the WGRFC area. We will update the rain chances and amounts with this latter system as details become more focused next week.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Sunday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for West Texas. MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for New Mexico, Southern Colorado, and for Texas west of a Wichita Falls to Eagle Pass line.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for the Wichita Falls area. Lighter MAP amounts are forecast for Southern Colorado, Northern New Mexico, and the central third of Texas.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for the Arklatex and extreme Northeast Texas. MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for New Mexico, Southern Colorado, and for the central third of Texas.

For Tuesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

The drought conditions have been deteriorating over the last several weeks over most of the region. Almost all of New Mexico and 82% of Texas remain in some level of drought category. In addition, 29% of Texas and 25% of New Mexico are in extreme drought. Statewide, in Texas, reservoirs are, on average, less than 65% full. This is below average for this time of year, with average being about 80% full. There is considerable variability across the state, with many of the reservoirs in the western half of the state below 50% full. Due to the dry soil moisture conditions, the rainfall which is forecast the next 5 days will not be heavy enough to produce significant runoff. Mainstem river flooding is not expected.

...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...Rio Grande Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Amistad increased releases last week elevating flows along the mainstem from Amistad downstream to Falcon Lake. No significant impacts are expected, although the river at Columbia Bridge (CBBT2) is fluctuating above an action level for pumps and livestock in the area. The duration of Amistad releases is unknown at this time.

...Sabine Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
ToledoToledo Bend Reservoir has discontinued 24/7 full power generation until further notice. Deweyville (DWYT2) is above action stage and continues to fall slowly.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
No significant flooding is expected from rainfall forecast in the next 5 days.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook


...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

WALLER

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