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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1122 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
VALID: AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 1
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO THE NEXT 5 DAYS, BUT LITTLE IF ANY RAIN ELSEWHERE...

An upper level ridge of high pressure is located over southern New Mexico this morning. The upper level high will begin shifting southwestward towards southern Arizona later today. This ridge relocation will not have much impact on the weather over the WGRFC area. However, an upper level shortwave trough is moving across the central Rockies. This will allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to form over New Mexico and Colorado this afternoon through the evening hours. And due to the monsoon, mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms can be expected each one of the next five days over this region. While the rainfall will not be heavy, isolated locations may get one to two inches of rain on any given day.

With the high pressure ridge west of Texas, an outflow boundary from previous thunderstorms produced some rain over southwest Texas Wednesday afternoon. This rain dissipated during the evening hours. Excessive amounts did not occur, but isolated locations did receive close to one inch of rain.

The upper level shortwave trough over the Colorado Rockies is expected to move over the central plains on Friday. This trough may produce a chance for showers and thunderstorms over the Texas panhandle, which may spread into northwestern Texas later Friday. The showers and thunderstorms will likely remain to the north of the WGRFC area. Therefore mostly dry weather conditions will persist over most of Texas and western Louisiana this weekend.

By Monday and Tuesday the high pressure ridge is forecast to shift back east toward southern New Mexico, although its areal influence will shrink. A weakness in the upper air patter may allow for a low pressure system to form along the Texas Gulf coast. If this occurs some shower and thunderstorm activity may develop across southeast Texas. At this point heavy rain does not look likely, and a good part of Texas will remain very warm and dry.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Friday morning, no significant Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. Light amounts of MAP are forecast for most of Colorado, for western and northern New Mexico, and the Texas panhandle.

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast for southwestern New Mexico. Lesser amounts are forecast for most of the western half of Colorado, most of New Mexico, and for the far western parts of Texas into the Texas panhandle.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for the mountains of southern Colorado into northern and western New Mexico. Lesser amounts are forecast for the rest of the southwestern half of Colorado, the western two thirds of New Mexico, and for far western Texas.

For Sunday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for the mountains of southern Colorado into northern and western New Mexico. Lesser amounts are forecast for the rest of the western two thirds of Colorado, for the western two thirds of New Mexico, and for the Gulf coast of southeast Texas and southern Louisiana.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Drought conditions are returning to a good part of the southeast two thirds of Texas. Topsoil moisture has decreased during the past month or so, thus it will take more rainfall for runoff to occur. In Texas 41% of the state is abnormally dry, with 6% in severe drought. In New Mexico, 51% of New Mexico is also abnormally dry. The rainfall forecast over the next five days will not be heavy enough to cause significant runoff.





...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...Trinity Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Lower sustained releases from Lewisville and Grapevine will keep Carrollton above action stage criteria levels through the forecast period. These flood control reservoirs, along with Ray Roberts, continue to slowly evacuate the flood storage accumulated this past May and June during heavy rainfall episodes.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
The remainder of WGRFC rivers are below criteria. The precipitation forecast over the next couple days is not expected to create significant issues. Dry soil conditions continue across most of Texas. Lake levels continue to remain near conservation or within flood pools for much of north and east Texas while most west Texas reservoirs are well below conservation.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather

...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

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