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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1011 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
VALID: JULY 2 THROUGH JULY 7
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...

A ridge of high pressure centered just west of the WGRFC region, is expected to shift slightly westward and weaken a bit over the coming days. As a result, a northwest flow pattern will set up and allow a few upper level disturbances to impact portions of Colorado, New Mexico and North Texas over the next several days. Scattered showers and thunderstorms developed overnight across the Four Corners area, and currently this activity has moved over portions of eastern New Mexico and West Texas. Another area of showers and thunderstorms is impacting northern Mexico. This activity may move over Deep South Texas over the coming hours, however the heaviest rainfall is expected to remain over Mexico. Rainfall amounts are generally less than 0.10 inch per hour.

By late tonight/early tomorrow, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along a frontal boundary situated across Oklahoma. Thereafter, a complex of thunderstorms is forecast to develop over Oklahoma and continue moving south across the Red River and North Texas during the early morning hours. Additionally, scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to become more widespread across southern Colorado and New Mexico. Rainfall amounts of 0.50 to 1.00 inch are expected with this activity.

A series of upper level disturbance will continue to bring additional showers and thunderstorms during the evening and overnight hours through Sunday...mainly for portions of Colorado, New Mexico and North Texas. By early next week, a ridge of high pressure is forecast to expand across the region. Therefore, shower and thunderstorm activity will be limited across the region during the latter part of the forecast period.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Friday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for portions of northern New Mexico and West Texas.

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for portions of North Texas (closer to the Red River), southern Colorado and northern New Mexico.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for portions of North Texas. Lesser amounts are forecast for southern Colorado and norther New Mexico.

For Sunday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of up to 1.50 inch are forecast for portions of Colorado and New Mexico.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Many lakes, especially over the northeastern half of Texas, are full and are releasing water according to regulation rules and schedules. Soil moisture remains high across much of Texas from rainfall over the past two months. Rainfall over the next five days in primarily southeastern Texas may be enough to cause some runoff locally, but significant, widespread runoff is not expected. Rainfall intensities and potential runoff will be monitored.





...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...Trinity Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Widespread flooding continues along the Trinity River mainstem. Flood stages will continue for some time as travel time from Dallas to Lake Livingston averages about 2 weeks. A wave of moderate flooding is working its way down the middle Trinity River. Trinidad (TDDT2) has fallen to minor flood and Long Lake (LOLT2) is at crest just above moderate flood stage. Crockett (CRKT2) will be rising above action stage, and Riverside (RVRT2) has begun rising slightly and may approach flood stage by the weekend. Lake Livingston has been holding at 28,400 CFS outflow for several days, but an increase is likely next week due to increasing inflows. For now, levels continue to fall downstream at Liberty (LBYT2) and Moss Bluff (MBFT2).

...Guadalupe Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Canyon Lake has again reduced releases which will lower the remaining forecasts as that reduced flow pushes downstream. Still elevated flow expected at Victoria (VICT2) and Bloomington (DUPT2) through forecast period.

...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Higher than normal flows continue throughout the Neches River basin, but minor flooding continues only on the Angelina River near Lufkin (LUFT2) and on the Neches River near Town Bluff (TBFT2). There is still significant flood water in Sam Rayburn Reservoir which is above the flood pool; therefore releases will continue for several weeks and will keep Town Bluff within minor flood.

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Minor flooding continues at Mineola (MLAT2) and Deweyville (DWYT2). Toledo Bend Reservoir will be running 12 hours of power generation each day. This will create fluctuations in stage downstream at Burkeville and Bon Wier this week, and falling stages at Deweyville by the weekend.

...Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
All locations along the river are now below minor flood levels. However, flows along the river system will remain elevated above normal because of the releases from the upstream lakes

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Soils remain wetter than normal over much of the WGRFC area. Higher than normal flows should be the norm throughout the area.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather

...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

MCCANTS

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