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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1121 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014
VALID: JULY 23 THROUGH JULY 28
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...WHILE THE MONSOON CONTINUES OVER THE WEST, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER MOST OF TEXAS UNTIL NEXT MONDAY...

An upper level high pressure system is centered over eastern Colorado this morning. This feature will remain a dominant factor in our weather pattern throughout the rest of the week into the weekend. The ridge will settle in over the Texas/New Mexico border region the rest of this week, then will shift west to just east of the four corners region by Monday morning. This will keep temperatures warm and will retard rainfall over most of the WGRFC forecast area.

The forecast is for generally rain-free conditions for Texas, with the exception of continued isolated thunderstorms along and near the Gulf coast in southeast Texas fed by off-shore breezes. Additionally, an upper air disturbance is located near New Orleans this morning. This easterly wave has become nearly stationary but is close enough to produce a good chance for rain over southeast Texas and southern Louisiana through this evening. This wave will weaken as it approaches the ridge over Texas on Thursday, but isolated thunderstorms will persist near the coast and possibly over east Texas into Thursday. And, a cold frontal boundary is moving southeastward across the Ohio valley. A few thunderstorms on the tail end of this front could develop as far west as northeast and east central Texas this afternoon and tonight into Thursday. After Thursday, little or no rain is forecast over Texas into Monday morning.

Farther west, a monsoonal plume of moisture moving up from the south will feed storm activity each afternoon and evening for the next 5 days. Areas of the middle Rio Grande valley and western New Mexico should be affected today. This activity should continue nearly every afternoon the next 5 days, providing some potential for convective activity as rainfall associated with the monsoon helps to alleviate some of the adverse impacts of the persistent drought that has plagued the region. The best chances for rain in this region appears to be Friday and again Sunday.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Thursday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 of an inch are forecast over southwest New Mexico, as well as over parts of southeast Texas, extreme northeastern Texas and southeastern Oklahoma. Lighter amounts of MAP are forecast over southern Colorado, the northwestern half of New Mexico, the middle and upper Texas Gulf coastal areas, and southern Louisiana.

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch are forecast in the headwaters of the upper Rio Grande around the Taos NM area including the New Mexico/Colorado border region. Lighter amounts of MAP are forecast over southern Colorado, the northern third of New Mexico, over and near the Texas Gulf coastal areas into east Texas, and Louisiana.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch are forecast in the headwaters of the upper Rio Grande including southwest Colorado and northern New Mexico. Lighter amounts of MAP are forecast over a good part of Colorado and northern New Mexico.

For Saturday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch or more are forecast in the headwaters of the upper Rio Grande including southern Colorado and northern New Mexico. Lighter amounts of MAP are forecast over most of Colorado, much of New Mexico, the Texas panhandle, and southern Louisiana.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Extreme to exceptional drought persists over parts of southwest Texas, as well as over the western parts of north Texas into the Texas Panhandle and northeast New Mexico. Statewide, less than 1% of New Mexico and about 5% of Texas are in exceptional drought. But, severe drought conditions are impacting 78% of New Mexico and 37% of Texas. The monsoonal rains in New Mexico have reduced the drought conditions over the past couple weeks, while over Texas the drought has diminished over roughly the southeast quarter. More rain is forecast the next 5 days over New Mexico which will help to ease the drought conditions, but over Texas rainfall amounts will be minimal and will be concentrated mainly along and near the Gulf coast. Therefore, no significant runoff is expected the next 5 days.





...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The Angelina River near Lufkin (LUFT2) is forecast to remain around flood stage for the next 12 to 24 hours. River responses elsewhere across the Neches River Basin are below forecast criteria levels.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
All other WGRFC river forecast locations are below bankfull level. Significant rainfall is not forecast through the end of the forecast period.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather

...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

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