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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 837 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014
VALID: SEPTEMBER 16 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 21
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...

Weak upper air disturbances moving across the region will keep scattered showers continuing across most of the WGRFC area through Wednesday. Rainfall amounts will be light, mainly averaging less than 0.25 inch over Texas and Louisiana. Therefore no significant hydrologic issues have been reported or are expected. In general, the upper level pattern will keep chances of precipitation in the forecast through the remainder of the week. In Texas, the best chances for rain will be over southeast Texas. However, no significant flooding is expected at this time.

Elsewhere, Hurricane Odile made landfall near the Baja California Monday morning. Over the next several days, remnants from this system are expected to move over southeast Arizona by late Wednesday, and over northern New Mexico Thursday into Friday morning. Abundant moisture can be seen on the latest water vapor imagery moving into the area, and widespread light rain has already developed over southern New Mexico. This along with a very unstable atmosphere will allow significant rainfall to impact the area from today through Friday morning. flood" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">flash flooding will continue to remain the greatest concern. The possibility of some higher than normal flows and minor flooding occurring during this time frame still exists.

The remnants of Odile will pass to the north of the WGRFC area on Saturday into Sunday morning. While the heaviest rain is forecast over Oklahoma, light to moderate rain is expected over a good part of Texas as moisture is drawn northward from the Gulf of Mexico. In Texas the best chances for heavier rain will be near the Texas Gulf coast where land/sea interactions enhance the moisture inflow.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Wednesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 inch or more are forecast for southern New Mexico and far west Texas. The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 1.50 inches, are forecast over southwest New Mexico. In addition, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch are forecast along the middle and upper Texas Gulf coast into southern Louisiana. Lighter amounts of MAP are forecast over most of Texas, most of New Mexico and Louisiana.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for most of southern New Mexico into far west Texas, as well as for southeast Texas and southwestern Louisiana. Isolated MAP amounts of 1.00 inch are forecast over south central and southwest New Mexico. Lighter amounts of MAP are forecast over most of Texas, most of New Mexico and western Louisiana.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or more are forecast for much of New Mexico and far west Texas. The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 2.00 inches, are forecast over southwest New Mexico. In addition, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch or more are forecast over much of east Texas and western Louisiana, with the heaviest rain of 1.50 inches forecast over the middle and upper Texas Gulf coast into southern Louisiana. Lighter amounts of MAP are forecast over most of Texas, most of New Mexico and Louisiana.

For Friday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for most of New Mexico, a good part of Texas and southern Colorado. The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 1.00 inch, are forecast from the eastern Texas panhandle into western Oklahoma. Lighter amounts of MAP are forecast over most of the remaining sections of the WGRFC area.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Drought persists, but is slowly improving over Texas and New Mexico. Statewide, New Mexico has no areas of exceptional drought while less than 2% of Texas remains in exceptional drought. Severe drought conditions are impacting less than 40% of New Mexico and 36% of Texas. Some runoff is expected across southeast Texas and southern New Mexico for the next 5 days. Runoff leading to significant mainstem river flooding is not expected, although flood" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">flash flooding can be expected in New Mexico.





...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...Rio Grande Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Due to releases from Luis Leon Reservoir, Presidio (PRST2) will be pushed up to action stage for the duration of the release. Additional local rainfall will cause further rise additional to the release from Luis Leon.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Soil states for the most part remain elevated throughout most of the state of Texas. Streaming moisture from Odile primarily impacting west central Texas is an area with the driest soils in the state. Coastal regions and western basins remain highly saturated, and while forecasted rain amounts appear too low for widespread flooding, isolated flooding and flood" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">flash flooding remain to be a concern. As Odile turns to the east additional rainfall is possible but still no flooding is expected at this time.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather

...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

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