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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1102 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014
VALID: AUGUST 1 THROUGH AUGUST 6
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER RIO GRANDE AND UPPER PECOS RIVER BASINS THIS WEEKEND...

Rainfall in southeastern Texas was locally intense overnight. Rainfall totals primarily fell within two hours. The highest observed rainfall amount in our database was 6.6 inches near Greens Bayou in the Houston metropolitan area. Other gage amounts of 2 to 5 inches were widespread in the Houston metropolitan area. Amounts as high as 4 inches were also observed further north from Lufkin to Longview. Rainfall amounts over the next five days should be much lighter throughout most of Texas, and confined to the southeast.

The weather situation in New Mexico and far western Texas is expected to remain active for the next few days with showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall. Isolated amounts above 2 inches were observed in several areas of New Mexico over the past 24 hours, especially just north of El Paso and further north near Santa Fe. Another very active day for showers and thunderstorms is expected today as monsoon moisture remains in place. Saturday is also expected to have a good chance for showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall throughout New Mexico. Lower amounts of rain are forecast on Sunday through Wednesday, but monsoon moisture should remain in place, and there is a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Saturday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of up to 1.00 inch are forecast for portions of New Mexico, southern Colorado, and far western Texas. MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inches are forecast for the upper Texas Gulf coast and for southwestern Louisiana. Lesser amounts are forecast for South Texas.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.5 to 1.5 inch are forecast for portions of far western Texas and southern New Mexico. MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inch are forecast for most of the rest of New Mexico and for southern Colorado. Lesser amounts are forecast for southeastern Texas.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inch are forecast for portions of southwestern New Mexico. Lesser amounts are forecast for southeastern Texas and for western Texas, the rest of New Mexico and for southern Colorado.

For Monday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inch are forecast for portions of southwestern New Mexico. Lesser amounts are forecast for most of the rest of New Mexico and southern Colorado, far western Texas, and southeastern Texas.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Extreme to exceptional drought persists over parts of southwest Texas, as well as over the western parts of north Texas into the Texas Panhandle and northeast New Mexico. Statewide, less than 1% of New Mexico and about 3% of Texas are in exceptional drought. But, severe drought conditions are impacting 78% of New Mexico and 33% of Texas. The monsoonal rains in New Mexico have reduced the drought conditions over the past couple weeks, while over Texas the drought has diminished over roughly the southeast quarter. More rain is forecast the next 5 days over New Mexico which will help to ease the drought conditions, but over Texas rainfall amounts will be minimal and will be concentrated mainly along and near the Gulf coast. The exception is far western Texas, where locally heavy rains may provide further drought relief. Local runoff issues are possible in New Mexico and western Texas over the next five days, but significant river flooding is not expected.





...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...San Jacinto Basin.. Locally intense rains overnight in the Houston metropolitan area have caused elevated flows on Greens Bayou. Greens Bayou at Ley Road near Houston (GBLT2) is expected to have a renewed rise to near flood stage later today due to over 6 inches of rain in the upper portion of the local basin.

...Trinity Basin...
Locally intense rains yesterday over the northeastern headwaters of the Trinity pushed Sister Grove creek near Blue Ridge (BVWT2) and the East Fork Trinity at McKinney (MCKT2) to action stage. Both sites have crested and are returning to normal seasonal flows.

...Rio Grande Basin...
With continued monsoonal activity in northern Mexico and far west Texas, there is potential for minor flooding in the creeks feeding into the Rio Grande mainstem. The Rio Grande near Candelaria (CDET2) spiked early this morning with a locally heavy thunderstorm. Storm activity is continuing in the area.

...Upper Rio Grande Basin...
Monsoonal rains continue throughout New Mexico. Over this weekend, northern New Mexico will remain convectively active with the heavier periods being this evening and Saturday morning. Areas to watch for minor flooding are around the Albuquerque/Santa Fe reaches and points below Elephant Butte dam through El Paso.

...Pecos Basin...
Monsoonal activity continues in many locations over New Mexico with some locally heavy rains being reported. Rain is expected to continue through the weekend with the heaviest amounts anticipated this afternoon. The draws and creeks northwest of Carlsbad have received heavy rainfall again overnight into this morning. This activity will be closely monitored for any additional heavy runoff episodes. While some localized flooding has occurred the majority of the area has received beneficial wetting rains.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Beneficial monsoonal rains continue over many location in New Mexico. The continued convective activity may produce flashy runoff events and possibly spike some forecast points to minor criteria levels this evening through Saturday morning. However, no significant mainstem flooding is anticipated at this time. Conditions will continue to be monitored closely.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather

...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

PHILPOTT

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