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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1042 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014
VALID: OCTOBER 31 THROUGH NOVEMBER 5
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THE WGRFC REGION NEXT WEEK...

A cluster of showers and thunderstorms developed overnight across portions of North and Central Texas, and pushed southward over the Hill Country and Deep South Texas early this morning. Currently, this activity is moving quickly over Deep South Texas...which is mainly affecting the Nueces river system right now. Rainfall amounts have been averaging 0.50 to 1.00 inch per hour, with isolated higher amounts embedded within some of the stronger storms. As a result, higher than normal rises were noted this morning across some of the flashier river basins within the San Antonio River system, however no significant rises (moderate or greater), have been reported at this time. This system will continue moving off towards the coast through late morning. No additional rises are expected with this activity.

Elsewhere, an upper ridge continues to dominate Colorado and New Mexico, which has allowed a northwesterly flow pattern to set up across much of Texas. As a result, cool and dry conditions are expected to continue through early next week.

Over the weekend through early next week, the upper ridge will begin to flatten out and shift towards the east, as a stronger upper level system strengthens over the Western US. As this system moves eastward, it is expected to tap into abundant moisture associated with Tropical Storm Vance. This has the potential to bring some significant rainfall to the WGRFC region late next week. The exact timing and location of possible impacts are still in question, however we will have additional information over the weekend and early next week.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Saturday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 or less are forecast for portions of southern Colorado and Deep South Texas

For Saturday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for portions of southern Colorado.

For Monday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of up to 2.00 inches are forecast for most of the WGRFC region, excluding portions of New Mexico and Colorado.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue to be observed over parts of New Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about half the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (48%) and 11% has extreme to exceptional drought. In New Mexico, nearly two thirds of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (63%) and 8% has extreme to exceptional drought. Since no significant rainfall is forecast within the WGRFC forecast area through the next 5 days, no runoff is expected.





...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...WGRFC Basins...
Rainfall forecast over the next five days will not cause mainstem river flooding in the WGRFC area. It`s too early to determine which basin will be the focus for the upcoming rain event when the remains of Tropical Storm Vance move through the region ahead of the next cold front on Tuesday. But, as we enter late fall, river responses will be more likely as vegetation has started to die off. Therefore, WGRFC will be keeping an eye on this event as it unfolds.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather

...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

MCCANTS

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