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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1110 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016
VALID: FEBRUARY 5 THROUGH FEBRUARY 10
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...ASIDE FROM SOME PRECIPITATION THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, A DRY SPELL OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK...

An upper air disturbance is gaining strength as it moves southeastward across the central Rockies this morning. This disturbance will move across the Texas panhandle today and across north and east Texas tonight into Saturday. This storm produced some snow across central and southeast Colorado the past 24 hours. This low will produce some light rain or drizzle over north Texas tonight and over east Texas into Louisiana Saturday as the storm passes. This storm should exit the WGRFC area by Saturday evening and the rainfall will end. No hydrologic impacts are expected over the WGRFC area.

A large high pressure system will form over the western U.S. Sunday, and this ridge will persist for several days. The northwesterly upper air flow over the WGRFC area will keep the weather dry across the region from Sunday through at least Wednesday.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Saturday morning, no significant Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over northeast New Mexico and the eastern half of Texas.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch are forecast over portions of east Texas. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over roughly the eastern third of Texas into western Louisiana.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Sunday into Monday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Monday into Wednesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Soil moisture continues to be above average in spite of the somewhat drier weather conditions of late. As a result, less rainfall than usual will be required for runoff to occur. This, along with the vegetation being dormant because we are in winter means runoff will occur faster. Over Texas, only 2% of the state is categorized as abnormally dry. Over New Mexico, 9% of the state is abnormally dry, and that is mostly confined to the western portions of the state. Precipitation over the next 5 days will not be heavy enough for significant runoff to occur.

...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...WGRFC Basins...
Minor flood and higher flow conditions continue to subside on the Sabine and Trinity River basins. Flood control reservoirs within these basins continue to evacuate flood storage keeping downstream flows higher, but within controlled design channel capacities. No significant rainfall is forecast in the next 5 days so no additional flooding is expected.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook


...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

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