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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1103 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014
VALID: APRIL 23 THROUGH APRIL 28
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...CHANCE OF RAIN THIS EVENING WEST OF METROPLEX AND RAINFALL AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY...

The next shortwave trough is near Nevada as shown by satellite water vapor imagery. As this feature drags a trough of low pressure over the area, there will be an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight mainly confined to portions of north Texas west of the metroplex. This storm pattern will look similar to the pattern over the last few days with a cold front following the storms. However, the chance for lingering rains remains low into Thursday morning as the front stalls south of the metroplex. Any activity is expected to be isolated. Storms are also possible across the Texas coast today with the light offshore winds.

There is the chance of widespread significant rainfall for the WGRFC area starting later this weekend. The more reliable meteorological models have consistently advertised well-organized stronger Pacific storm moving across the California Coast and cross the Desert Southwest this weekend. These models are showing a favorable environment for the development of heavy rainfall over the eastern two thirds of the WGRFC area starting Sunday, and staying in the forecast through Monday.

We will continue to monitor this possible event and will update accordingly.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Thursday morning, no significant Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 or less are forecast for northeast Texas.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Friday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Saturday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1.50 inches are forecast for the eastern third of Texas with amounts increasing to the northeast through the upper Sabine basin.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

The drought conditions continue to deteriorate over most of the region. Almost all of New Mexico and 82% of Texas remain in some level of drought category. In addition, 29% of Texas and 25% of New Mexico are in extreme drought. Statewide, in Texas, reservoirs are, on average, less than 65% full. This is below average for this time of year, with average being about 80% full. There is considerable variability across the state, with many of the reservoirs in the western half of the state below 50% full. Due to the dry soil moisture conditions, the rainfall forecast over the next 5 days will not be heavy enough to produce significant runoff. Mainstem river flooding is not expected.

...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...Rio Grande Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Amistad releases are elevating flows along the mainstem from Amistad downstream to Falcon Lake. No significant impacts are expected, although the river at Columbia Bridge (CBBT2) is fluctuating above an action level for pumps and livestock in the area. The duration of Amistad releases is unknown at this time.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
No significant flooding is expected from rainfall forecast in the next 5 days. An event expected toward the end of the five day period is being monitored at this time, but timing and location shifts each model run make local forecast determinations difficult at this time.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook


...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

CAZIER

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