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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1045 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015
VALID: MAY 4 THROUGH MAY 9
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

The large scale pattern will change little over the next 5 days. A series of broad upper level Pacific storms will keep the WGRFC area under a southwesterly flow aloft through the weekend. Upper level disturbances embedded in this southwesterly pattern will help initiate the development of showers and thunderstorms over the WGRFC area. With deep moisture in place, locally heavy rainfall is possible in the more organized thunderstorm complexes.

Precipitable Water (PW) values are running 150% to 200% of normal for the western half of the WGRFC area. Locally heavy rainfall is expected across Southeast New Mexico and the Texas Rolling Plains through Tuesday. As the week progresses, the focus for heavy rain will shift east toward North Central and Northeast Texas. However, there are no large scale systems expected to "clear out" the area. Even if the focus for heavy rain shifts east, scattered showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast for all of the WGRFC area through the weekend.

At this time, areas of Texas west of Interstate 35 are still experiencing various stages of drought. Same goes for most of New Mexico and Southern Colorado. Rainfall across these areas will be most beneficial and should help with the ongoing drought.

For areas of Texas east of Interstate 35, soils remain fairly saturated. Forecast rainfall will likely produce runoff, and new mainstem river flooding is a possibility, especially for the Trinity, Neches, and Sabine Basins of North and East Texas. Locally heavy rainfall with any organized thunderstorms could potentially produce significant river flooding on the smaller basins.

We will need to monitor this situation for possible flooding later this week.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Tuesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 2 to 3 inches are forecast for portions of West Texas between Midland and Lubbock. MAP amounts of 1 to 2 inches are forecast from the Texas Panhandle to the Permian Basin, westward into Eastern New Mexico. MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for the remainder of Texas west of the Heartland and for the remainder of New Mexico.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 1 to 1.50 inches are forecast for North Central Texas and for the Texas Panhandle. MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for the remainder of the WGRFC area.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for North Central Texas. Lighter MAP amounts are forecast for the remainder of the WGRFC area.

For Thursday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 1 to 1.50 inches are forecast for North Central and Central Texas. MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for the remainder of the WGRFC area.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue across parts of New Mexico and Texas. Recent precipitation events have brought drought relief to parts of Texas. In Texas, about a third of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (31%), and about 6% has extreme to exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, a little over half of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (56%). Lake levels in the extreme drought areas of Texas have responded some, but many are at or near historical lows for this time of year. The rainfall expected over the next five days over the WGRFC area will likely be heavy enough to produce significant runoff over roughly the eastern half of the WGRFC area.

...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Minor flooding continues along the mainstem of the Neches and Angelina River system. The tributaries have recovered from the last flood event, but the water is still slowly working its way downstream. Area lakes remain full and flood control reservoirs continue their releases. The stage on the Neches River near Town Bluff (TBFT2) is being driven by releases out of B.A. Steinhagen lake.

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Toledo Bend will continue full 2-unit continuous power generation producing approx 15,000 CFS outflow; therefore, Deweyville (DWYT2) will remain above minor flood levels through the week. The river system remains saturated and the short break from rainfall will not be long enough to fully recover before the next round of flooding will begin late Tuesday and Wednesday.

...Trinity Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Lake Livingston continues to remain full and is passing any extra water from upstream through it`s flood gates. Points downstream will remain well above base flow until further notice.

...Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
The Navasota River tributary is still recovering from last weeks rainfall, but the river is no longer in flood. That will not last long, though, as additional rises are expected to develop in the upper portions of the Normangee River system later this week.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Minor flooding continues in the Neches and lower Sabine River basins. No significant rainfall sufficient to cause additional flooding is expected until Tuesday/Wednesday when the next upper level system starts developing several rounds of precipitation as it slowly moves eastward. The favored areas for now would be the Trinity River basin in and around Dallas and the uppermost section of the Sabine and Neches Rivers, though beneficial rains are expected in the upper Brazos and upper Colorado basins as well.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook


...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

WALLER

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