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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1023 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015
VALID: SEPTEMBER 3 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 8
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...COASTAL SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG WITH MONSOONAL ACTIVITY OUT WEST...

The morning opens again with localized showers along the middle to upper Texas Gulf coast. Continued coastal seabreeze showers are possible today along with daily afternoon monsoonal showers across the western WGRFC area of New Mexico and Colorado.

The persistent upper level low continues to weaken, but will remain along the Texas Gulf coast today resulting in isolated scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly across coastal Texas. In its wake, an upper level high pressure ridge is building in from the west over the central U.S. that will dominate the weather pattern thru the weekend bringing drier weather across most of the WGRFC area.

Early next week, the upper level ridge will begin to break down as a fairly strong upper trough and associated cold front moves across the northwest U.S. Most of the activity from this storm system will remain well north of the region. However, showers and thunderstorms will accompany the cold front bringing the next chance for storms to reach the area by late next Wednesday into late next week.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Friday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 inches or less are forecasted for the Gulf Coast region and across New Mexico and southern Colorado.

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inches or less are forecasted for the Gulf Coast region and across New Mexico and southern Colorado.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Saturday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Sunday into Tuesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Drought conditions are returning to a good part of the southeast two thirds of Texas. Topsoil moisture has decreased during the past month or so, thus it will take more rainfall for runoff to occur. In Texas 41% of the state is abnormally dry, with 6% in severe drought. In New Mexico, 51% of New Mexico is also abnormally dry. The rainfall forecast over the next five days will not be heavy enough to cause significant runoff.





...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...WGRFC Basins...
All WGRFC rivers are below criteria. The precipitation forecast over the next couple days is not expected to create significant issues. Dry soil conditions continue across most of Texas. Lake levels continue to remain near conservation or within flood pools for much of north and east Texas while most west Texas reservoirs are well below conservation.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather

...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

MCKEE

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