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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1111 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
VALID: AUGUST 1 THROUGH AUGUST 6
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES IN THE WEST THIS WEEKEND. DRIER THIS COMING WEEK...

Isolated thunderstorm rainfall as high as 2 inches fell in portions of northern and central Texas during the past 24 hours. More widespread rainfall of up to 1 inch was observed in south Texas and New Mexico, while the Texas Panhandle had widespread amounts of 1 to 2.5 inches. Late this Saturday morning, significant ongoing rainfall is limited to far northwestern Texas in the vicinity of Childress. Another round of thunderstorms is expected by afternoon and continuing into the night over portions of New Mexico and western Texas. There is a potential for locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding, especially in New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle.

An upper level high pressure ridge is anchored over New Mexico and the Four Corners Region and will continue to dominate the weather over Texas and New Mexico into next week. This includes generally hot weather, and a potential for daily shower and thunderstorm activity, especially in New Mexico and northwestern Texas. Conditions are expected to become less favorable for widespread rainfall by Monday, due to a reduction in atmospheric moisture.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Sunday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are forecast for portions of northwestern Texas. MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inch are forecast for portions of northern New Mexico and southern Colorado. Lesser MAP amounts are forecast for western Texas, and the rest of New Mexico and Colorado.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are forecast for portions of northern New Mexico, southern Colorado, and the Texas Panhandle. Lesser MAP amounts are forecast for the rest of New Mexico, Colorado, and northwestern Texas.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of up to 0.25 inch are forecast for portions of New Mexico and southern Colorado.

For Tuesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Lakes over the northeastern half of Texas are still releasing water according to regulation rules and schedules. Soil moisture has been very high across much of Texas from rainfall over the past two months. However, with the dry spell through July, topsoil continues to dry out in Texas. The rainfall forecast over the next five days will not be heavy enough to cause significant runoff except over the mountainous areas of New Mexico.





...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...Trinity Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Increased releases from Lewisville and Grapevine will push Carrolton into flood stage for the forecast period. This will be updated as further release information is acquired from the Corps on their projections over the next few days.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
The remainder of WGRFC rivers are flowing below criteria at near or above normal baseflow conditions. Significant rainfall is not forecast in the WGRFC area in the next 5 days.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather

...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

PHILPOTT

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