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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1112 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016
VALID: SEPTEMBER 25 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 30
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS WEEK...

Widespread convective precipitation has occurred during the past 24 hours ending this morning in the western two thirds of Texas. Localized amounts in excess of 4 inches were observed as of 7am this Sunday morning in the west and northwest. Later this morning, locally heavy rainfall in excess of 4 inches has been observed in other locations ranging from near Fort Worth affecting the upper Trinity River basin to the western portions of the Hill Country, affecting the Nueces and Rio Grande river basins. The heaviest rainfall during the next 24 to 48 hours can be expected in the southwestern and south central portion of the state affecting the Rio Grande, Upper Nueces, the Colorado River tributaries that flow into the Highland Lakes, and the headwaters of the Guadalupe and San Antonio Rivers.

A strong upper level system over northwestern Mexico and a cold front stalled along the western border of Texas are responsible for the wet weather in the region. The cold front is expected to move through Texas later today into Monday, pushing the threat for rainfall to the lower Rio Grande Valley by early Tuesday.

Texas will see much drier and noticeably cooler weather for the rest of the week. Showers and thunderstorms will be expected in northern Mexico and New Mexico throughout the coming week.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Monday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.5 inch or more are forecast for most of the western two thirds of Texas. The heaviest amounts of 2 to 4 inches are forecast for portions of the Permian Basin, lower Trans Pecos, Big Bend area, and western Hill Country of Texas.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.5 inch or more are forecast for portions of the Permian Basin, lower Trans Pecos, and Big Bend area of Texas for northeastern Mexico. The highest amounts of 2 to 3 inches are forecast near Amistad Reservoir.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are forecast for portions of the lower Rio Grande Valley of Deep South Texas.

For Wednesday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are forecast for portions of the lower Rio Grande Valley of Deep South Texas.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Because of the widespread rain over the past few weeks over parts of New Mexico and Texas, drought conditions remain favorable. The U.S. Drought Monitor categorizes Texas as 4.5% abnormally dry, with almost 1% in severe drought. New Mexico remains unchanged this week with 47% of the state abnormally dry and 4% in the moderate drought category.





...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...WGRFC Basins...
The first round of rainfall overnight has moistened up the soils from Del Rio to Wichita Falls. Small responses were recorded at many locations in the area, but all well below criteria. Additional heavy rain in the area today, though, should produce more significant rises, increasing the chances for criteria levels to be exceeded.

Additionally, reservoirs in Mexico within the Rio Conchos drainage along with reservoirs within smaller Mexico watersheds that directly drain into the mainstem between Amistad and Falcon Reservoirs, are near conservation and may begin regulation. This would affect Rio Grande flows from Presidio downstream through Laredo with the onset of any heavy, widespread rainfall within those areas of Mexico.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather

...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

PHILPOTT

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