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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1123 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014
VALID: SEPTEMBER 20 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 25
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FORECAST OVER PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...

Weak upper air disturbances, combined with an old frontal boundary, have kept scattered to numerous showers ongoing across most of the WGRFC area the past few days. In general, upper level disturbances combined with abundant atmospheric moisture favor continued thunderstorms and showers through the weekend, with a gradual decrease in the precipitation early next week.

The other focus for rainfall has been and continues to be with the remnants of Hurricane Odile slowly moving along the Texas/New Mexico border. Over the next several days, the remnants of Odile are expected to move slowly northeast into the Texas panhandle then drop southward toward the Permian Basin by Sunday morning. With all the moisture in place over the area, the widespread rain will continue over southeastern New Mexico into west Texas and the Texas panhandle through today. flood" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">flash flooding will continue to remain the greatest concern, along with developing minor and possible moderate flooding on the Pecos River during the next two days. Rainfall is also expected into early next week, especially over west central and southwest Texas, depending upon the future track of Odile`s remnants. Since these remnants should be weakening over west Texas Sunday, mainly light to moderate rain is expected over this part of Texas and southeast New Mexico. We will continue to monitor the progress of this storm.

By Monday a weak cold front is forecast to move into northern and eastern Texas. At this point significant rainfall is not expected with the frontal boundary as the remnants of Odile eventually weaken further over west Texas. Behind the front, drier air will be ushered in, so rainfall will decrease further across Texas by Wednesday morning.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Sunday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 1.00 inch are forecast to fall over southeastern New Mexico and far west Texas with the heaviest amounts possible north of I-20 from Odessa to Lubbock and eastward toward Stamford, Texas.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1.00 inch are forecast for most of New Mexico with the heaviest amounts over the Pecos River basin to points south of Red Bluff dam along the I-20 corridor in far west Texas.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch are forecast for an area in the upper Rio Grande valley from Alamogordo north to Albuquerque.

For Tuesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Drought persists but is slowly improving over Texas and New Mexico. Statewide, New Mexico has no areas of exceptional drought, while less than 2% of Texas remains in exceptional drought. Severe drought conditions are impacting less than 40% of New Mexico and 35% of Texas. No doubt the rainfall forecast the next 5 days will further alleviate some of the ongoing drought. Runoff is expected across far west Texas, as well as over southeastern New Mexico for the few days. Runoff leading to significant mainstem river flooding may occur on the Pecos River in addition to flood" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">flash flooding in southeast New Mexico and west Texas. No significant runoff is expected over north central and northeast Texas for the forecast period.





...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...Rio Grande Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The largest concern in the Rio Grande basin continues to be potential flows from the Rio Conchos out of northern Mexico into the Rio Grande at Presidio. Current forecasts are for minor flood levels at Presido downstream of the International Bridge (PRST2) at the weir (PRDT2). Flows in the Rio Conchos have been stable with little change since Friday afternoon. No significant rainfall is forecast in the Rio Conchos basin for the next few days. WGRFC will continue to monitor the Rio Grande river conditions and adjust forecasts accordingly.

...San Jacinto Basin...
Heavy rains over portions of the San Jacinto brought tributaries to slightly above bankfull levels yesterday but all are now subsiding and have fallen below action criteria levels at this time.

...Pecos Basin...
...Bankfull and above...
The large flows in the tributaries above Brantley Reservoir continue to recede. Brantley reservoir has adequate storage available such that it will not be making releases to contribute to existing downstream flooding. Downstream, the current level in Lake Avalon is near conservation pool and continues to rise however no significant spillway flows are expected. Downstream of Avalon to Red Bluff reservoir, the Pecos River has fallen to below NWS action stage criteria but not necessarily below bankfull. Red Bluff reservoir continues to rise. The current pool height was 2825.08 as of 15:15Z 9/20/2014 (assumed NGVD29). The Red Bluff spillway elevation is 2826.7 NGVD29. With no significant additional rainfall considered, WGRFC does not expect Red Bluff reservoir to make a significant downstream flow contribution to the existing overbank flow conditions between Red Bluff reservoir and Pecos, Texas. Stage/flow data for that section of the Pecos River is limited.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Rainfall has continued across many parts of WGRFC with soil states nearing saturation for most areas with exception of the northeast Texas basins. These wet areas of the WGRFC will likely again see precipitation in some form of intensity today, but the current forecast displays no rises beyond minor flooding at this time.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather

...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

CAZIER

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