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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1059 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016
VALID: MAY 25 THROUGH MAY 30
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS LATER THIS WEEK...

As the week progresses so does the favorability for the development of showers and thunderstorms. An upper level pattern will result in the development of showers and thunderstorms into the Memorial Day Holiday Weekend. The southwesterly flow aloft will bring a series of disturbances across the area. Low level moisture and instability remains plentiful, which usually results in shower and thunderstorm development with locally heavy rainfall. Daytime heating and the dry line will provide the lift along with outflow boundaries from the previous day`s thunderstorms. Widespread significant rainfall is possible Thursday and Friday into the early weekend for Central and Eastern Texas.

The heaviest of the rainfall will clear out of the area by Saturday with another system setting up to bring more rain into WGRFC`s area later in the weekend into next week.

As mentioned before, it will rain over the WGRFC area the next 5 days. Some areas in western Texas will receive little to no rain. Some areas could see pockets of very heavy rainfall, especially in and near the strongest thunderstorms. Widespread significant rainfall is expected later this week into the weekend and early next week.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Thursday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are forecast for South Texas.

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 1 to 3 inches are forecast for Central Texas and east into Northeast Texas. MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for the remainder of the area.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 1 to 2 inches are forecast for east northeast Texas and southwest into Central Texas. Highest amounts are along the OK-AR borders.

For Saturday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1.50 inch are forecast for most of Texas, especially over North and West Texas. MAP amounts of around 0.25 inch are forecast for most of eastern New Mexico.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Soils are fairly moist across a good part of the state, especially the eastern half. 3% of Texas is categorized as abnormally dry, with less than 1% of the state in the moderate drought category. Over New Mexico, 83% of the state is abnormally dry, and 40% remains in the moderate drought category. The rainfall the next 5 days will not be heavy enough for widespread significant runoff.





...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...Guadalupe Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Victoria (VICT2) and Bloomington (DUPT2) are nearing crest in moderate flood levels due to rainfall last week. Elsewhere, flood levels have crested and have begun falling. Canyon Lake is well within its flood pool and has been evacuating flood storage through releases. This has resulted in higher, sustained flows downstream on the mainstem from Sattler to Gonzales. However, there are plans to reduce releases beginning Thursday evening through the weekend for Memorial Day weekend activities, but will likely resume elevated releases early next week.

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Toledo Bend Reservoir has started decreasing their releases, and this should continue the next several days. The Sabine River at Deweyville (DWYT2) is expected to remain in minor flood level through the weekend. Additional heavy rainfall over the next 5 days, may cause higher rises.

...Neches Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Higher than normal flow are expected to continue for areas below Town Blulff the remainder of the week.

...Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Higher than normal flows are occurring on portions of the Brazos and associated tributaries due to recent rainfall and releases from upstream flood control reservoirs.

...San Antonio Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Higher than normal rises will continue on the lower end of the San Antonio River the next several days. Goliad (GLIT2), has fallen below minor flood level and should drop below criteria the by tomorrow. Additional heavy rainfall over the weekend may cause some higher rises on the remainder of the river system.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Soils remain wet over most of the eastern half of the WGRFC forecast area. Additional rainfall is expected later this week, which could lead to more river flooding on basins already impacted.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather

...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

AUSTIN-SMITH

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