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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1120 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016
VALID: AUGUST 30 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 4
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST AND OVER NEW MEXICO, BUT WILL DECREASE BY THE WEEKEND...

An area of low pressure has been moving very slowly southwest just off the southeast Texas coast the past 24 hours. Showers and thunderstorms occurred north and east of this low over much of Texas. The heaviest rainfall amount of nearly 6 inches occurred near Port Aransas. The thundershowers are expected to continue along and near the middle and lower Texas coast today. As the low shifts southwest Wednesday the heavier showers will shift to deep south Texas. Since the heaviest rains have been focused along the immediate shoreline and over the coastal waters the last day or so, this activity has not caused any significant mainstem river flood issues, although the flash flood potential continues at this time. Rainfall amounts of 3-5 inches are possible along the middle Texas Gulf coastal areas mainly today.

Meanwhile, over the western portions of the WGRFC area, a persistent upper level low pressure system is located over southeast New Mexico. Showers and thunderstorms have been occurring near and just east of this low and has produced some locally heavy rainfall from southeast New Mexico into west Texas. The area in and around Denver City TX has had 3.50 to over 4.00 inches of rain the past 24 hours. This upper low is forecast to decrease Wednesday across southern New Mexico, thus the potential for heavier rainfall will begin to subside. Some rainfall will persist over southern New Mexico, however, until at least Thursday.

Rain chances will remain in the forecast for most of the WGRFC region through the rest of this week as an upper level system pushes a "back door" cold front into north Texas later Thursday. This may produce some showers and thunderstorms, with the heaviest rain forecast along the Red River, into Friday. Thereafter, a ridge of high pressure is forecast to build back over the region and will deliver drier conditions to most of the WGRFC area this weekend.

...Tropical updates...

Tropical Depression #9 continues over the southeast Gulf of Mexico. Some additional strengthening is possible as it continues to move over the Gulf of Mexico the next few days and eventually towards the northern Florida coast about Thursday or Friday. At this time, this system has a low chance of impacting any portion of Texas. We will continue to monitor the forecast models the rest of the week and update accordingly.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Wednesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 of an inch or more are forecast over the northwest quarter of Texas into eastern New Mexico and southern Colorado, as well as over the southern third of Texas. The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 1.50 inches, are forecast over extreme southeast New Mexico. MAP amounts of 1.00 inch are also forecast for the middle Texas Gulf coast from Corpus Christi to Port O`Connor. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over the southwest two thirds of Texas and most of New Mexico and Colorado.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for portions of southern and eastern New Mexico into northwest Texas and the panhandle. MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are also forecast for deep south Texas. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over the western two thirds of Texas and most of New Mexico and Colorado.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for the southern half of New Mexico into west Texas, the Texas Panhandle and extreme north Texas. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over the northwestern two thirds of Texas, northwest Louisiana, and most of New Mexico and Colorado.

For Friday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast for extreme New Mexico and portions of central Texas. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over most of Texas, and most of New Mexico and Colorado.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

After the widespread rain the past week or two over parts of New Mexico and Texas, drought conditions have eased somewhat. The U.S. Drought Monitor has categorized Texas as 29% abnormally dry, with less than 1% in severe drought. Over New Mexico, 88% of the state is abnormally dry, and 24% remains in the moderate drought category. The showers and thunderstorms forecast the rest of this week into the weekend will keep more serious drought conditions from developing over the WGRFC region, while many sections continue drought-free. Since topsoil has become moister, some runoff is possible where the heaviest rain is forecast. However, since the heaviest rain is forecast where soils are drier most of the runoff that results will be insignificant across the majority of the WGRFC area.





...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...Rio Grande Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Locally heavy rainfall occurred over the last 24 hours along the Rio Grande River Basin near Presidio, Texas and Ojinaga, Mexico. Minor rises occurred along the Rio Grande and Rio Conchos Rivers in this vicinity. Upstream, minor flooding is occurring near Candelaria due to recent rainfall. River levels at all of these locations have crested and are now falling.

...Nueces Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Runoff from rain that fell last week continues to flow down the mainstem of the Nueces River. No flooding is expected at this time, but higher than normal flow will continue through the area over the next few days.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
All other rivers are recovering from recent rainfall. Many locations are still well above normal flow for this time of year. With additional rainfall expected over the next few days, new minor rises are expected in many of our river systems, especially the Big Bend region of the Rio Grande.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather

...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

STORY

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