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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1026 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014
VALID: AUGUST 22 THROUGH AUGUST 27
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...PRECIPITATION WILL BE MINIMAL OVER TEXAS THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WHILE THE MONSOON CONTINUES OVER NEW MEXICO...

A upper air disturbance combined with abundant atmospheric moisture to continue to produce showers and thunderstorms over west Texas and northern Mexico for past 24 hours. The heaviest rainfall was noted around areas near El Paso. This disturbance has weakened in the past few hours. Therefore, less rainfall is expected over Texas than has been experienced the past few days.

A strong upper level system has developed just off the southern California coast. The high will move over the lower Mississippi River valley through the weekend before drifting north to the western Ohio valley by Monday. This will keep conditions very warm and dry for most of Texas into Tuesday morning.

Elsewhere, monsoonal rainfall activity is forecast to continue over portions of New Mexico, especially by Friday and Saturday as the upper low from California moves northeastward. And the sea breeze front will persist over the Gulf coast and southeast Texas, producing scattered thundershowers during the afternoon hours each day for the next 5 days. The day with the best chance for rain appears to be Monday. However, no significant rainfall is expected from that activity.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Saturday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch are forecast for the upper Rio Grande valley from El Paso north through Santa Fe, New Mexico.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Sunday into Monday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Monday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch are forecast for the upper Rio Grande valley with heaviest amounts north of El Paso below Elephant Butte Lake.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Extreme to exceptional drought persists over parts of central and southwest Texas, as well as over the western parts of north Texas into the Texas Panhandle and northeast New Mexico. Statewide, New Mexico is out of exceptional drought while less than 3% of Texas remains in exceptional drought. Severe drought conditions are impacting 40% of New Mexico and 34% of Texas. The monsoonal rains in New Mexico have eased the drought conditions over the past couple weeks, especially the southeast portions. In Texas, the drought has diminished over roughly the southeast quarter. No widespread significant rainfall is forecast the next 5 days, therefore no significant runoff is expected.





...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...WGRFC Basins...
Rainfall caused a local rise at Candelaria (CDET2) but fell below action stage in less than 2 hours. Additional rainfall in the area may cause temporary rises out of bank for that region of the Rio Grande. Elsewhere, River conditions across the WGRFC area remain near or below seasonal flows. Localized thunderstorm complexes continue to be daily, scattered across the area that are helping to add much needed water to the system, but no significant flooding is expected.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather

...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

CAZIER

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