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ISSUED: 1121 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map


A major storm system continues to be present to the west of the WGRFC area. At the surface, deep Gulf moisture exists over most of Texas, and aloft high level moisture is also present from the eastern Pacific Ocean. As upper disturbances in the southwest flow moved across the region the past 24 to 48 hours, widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms developed over most of Texas, as well as over the southeast half of New Mexico. Higher elevation snows also occurred over the mountains of southern Colorado, and more snow can be expected over the mountains of northern New Mexico and Colorado the next few days. A mixture of wintry precipitation is possible at lower elevations from west Texas through the Texas panhandle into western Oklahoma the next day or so. The heaviest rain the past 24 hours was over north Texas into southeast Oklahoma, with 4.20 inches noted at Morgan Mill. Close to 10.00 to 11.00 inches has been noted near Anna and McKinney for this storm system.

More rainfall will persist over most of Texas through Sunday night. The strong upper level low pressure system is located west of Las Vegas Nevada this morning. This low is forecast to redevelop over Utah through tonight before moving northeastward to Wyoming by Sunday night. Southwesterly flow aloft will continue over the WGRFC area of responsibility through the weekend. Due to the persistence of upper disturbances within this flow, additional precipitation is expected. At the surface, a strong cold front moved through most of Texas the past 36 hours. The front will move slowly over east Texas and western Louisiana the rest of today. The cold front and upper level pattern will combine to produce conditions favorable for additional rainfall over much of Texas and Louisiana, especially over northern and central Texas along an behind the front through Monday morning.

In addition, the weather models are also forecasting that eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Sandra will move from its current position near Cabo San Lucas Mexico into central Mexico today before dissipating over land as it moves northeastward on Sunday. This system could cause some additional moisture to interact with the upper level storm system and cold front to enhance the heavy rainfall threat in Texas and western Louisiana through Sunday.

In general, additional rainfall amounts of up to 3.00 inches are expected for areas east of I-35 and north of I-20 from today through Sunday, with the highest amounts near the Red River across the Arklatex. We will continue to monitor the model guidance for any changes, and will update accordingly.

Drier air from the west should shut down the prospects of significant rainfall on Monday as the upper low shifts eastward over Nebraska. But on Tuesday a new, but weaker, upper air disturbance will approach Texas from the northwest. There will be some residual rainfall development from central into east Texas and Louisiana (and eventually over deep south Texas) from later Tuesday through Wednesday as this upper disturbance crosses Texas. After this disturbance moves east of the WGRFC area on Thursday all the precipitation should push east of our region.


Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Sunday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 inch or more are forecast for a good portion of Texas into northwest Louisiana. The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 2.00 inches, are forecast for extreme northeast Texas into central Arkansas. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for most of the rest of the WGRFC area.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for central and northeast Texas into northern Louisiana. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for most of the rest of Texas, western Louisiana, northern New Mexico and southern Colorado.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast for southeast Texas into most of Louisiana. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for the southeast third of Texas and Louisiana, as well as a small part of northern New Mexico into southern Colorado.

For Tuesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast over deep south Texas, as well as for central and east Texas into most of Louisiana. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for most of the rest of Texas and Louisiana.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Topsoil moisture is very high due to recent rainfall events which means it will require less rainfall for runoff to occur. That, along with the vegetation being dormant now that the growing season has come to an end, means runoff will be quicker. Over Texas only 7% of the state is abnormally dry, while over New Mexico, 26% of the state is abnormally dry. Heavy rainfall amounts of up to 3 inches, on top of what rain has already fallen, are forecast through the weekend. This will lead to some new or additional runoff because of the wet soil moisture conditions and the cold season vegetation patterns.


Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...Trinity Basin...
...Major Flooding...
Overnight rains have pushed several sites back into flood levels. Many of the Trinity tributaries are experiencing minor to moderate flooding with the additional rains. The Trinity mainstem at Dallas (DALT2) is near crest above major flood levels at 41 feet now. It is expected to remain at this level for at least 24 hours then begin a slow recession. Points downstream from Trinidad (TDDT2) through Long Lake (LOLT2) will rise once again into moderate flood levels.

...Sabine Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Localized heavy rainfall in the upper Sabine will push Greenville (GNVT2) and Quinlan (QLAT2) into moderate and minor flood respectively. More rainfall is expected which could push these smaller creeks even higher over the next few days. Routed water and local runoff will then push Mineola (MLAT2) and Gladewater (GDWT2) above flood stage.

...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Minor flooding is expected on the Neches River from Lake Palestine to Alto. Future rainfall will likely prolong the higher river levels.

...Brazos Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Locally heavy rainfall has generated some rises on the Brazos River System. At this time, minor river flooding is expected around the De Leon basins of the Sabana and Leon Rivers. River flooding is also expected between Possum Kingdom and Granbury Reservoirs. Higher flows should be expected as the threat for rainfall continue into next week.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Heavy rainfall occurred overnight in portions of the Brazos, Trinity and the upper Sabine. Additional rainfall is expected tonight through Sunday that could cause prolonged flooding in the headwaters of the Sabine, Neches and portions of the Trinity and Brazos through the weekend.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor

Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather


The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at:

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:

National Precipitation Analysis:

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:

The US Drought Assessment:

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:


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