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090 AGUS74 KFWR 221730 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1130 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2015 VALID FEBRUARY 22 THROUGH FEBRUARY 27 ...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK, ESPECIALLY TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... An upper level disturbance moved southeastward across the Rockies into the central plain states the past 24 to 36 hours. This trough pushed a strong cold front into Texas, and some showers occurred along and ahead of this front as it moved southward. Precipitation amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch forecast were noted over the southeast third of Texas, with higher amounts observed over Louisiana where atmospheric moisture was deeper. Yet another strong upper air disturbance has developed over Nevada. This low will move slowly southward and deepen near Reno the next 24 hours. This will result in precipitation across Colorado and northern New Mexico today, and this precipitation will persist for a few days. There is the potential of heavy snow of over two feet over the San Juan Mountains today into Monday. Total snow water equivalent amounts of over 2.00 inches are forecast for southern Colorado through Monday and even Tuesday. Over Texas a very active upper air pattern is in progress which will continue through the middle of the week. The strong upper air disturbance to our west will be over California Monday morning, then will advance slowly eastward from Monday night through noon Wednesday. Abundant moisture returned quickly to Texas this morning, and widespread precipitation is developing. With very cold air continuing to move southward, most of Texas will see prolonged periods of precipitation from now through mid-day Wednesday, with wintry precipitation possible over northern and western Texas this afternoon through Monday. However, water equivalent precipitation amounts are not expected to be heavy enough to generate river flooding during this period. With the upper disturbance to the east of the WGRFC area by Wednesday afternoon, there will be a temporary lull in the precipitation from Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning over most of the region. Thereafter, an new (but weaker) series of upper air disturbances are forecast to move across New Mexico and Colorado into the Texas panhandle. These troughs may produce light precipitation over the western parts of the WGRFC area Thursday into Friday morning. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Monday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 inch or more are forecast for southern Colorado, the northeastern half of New Mexico, the northern half of Texas and most of Louisiana. The heaviest precipitation, with MAP amounts of over 1.00 inch, are forecast over the San Juan Mountains in southern Colorado. MAP amounts of 0.50 inch are forecast over west central, north central into northeast Texas. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for most of the remainder of the WGRFC area of responsibility. For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for southern Colorado and northern New Mexico. MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are also forecast over north Texas near the Red River, over deep south Texas, and over western Louisiana. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for most of Texas, Louisiana, a good part of New Mexico and the southwestern half of Colorado. For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for the eastern two thirds of Texas, Louisiana, most of New Mexico and southern Colorado. For Wednesday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for the southeastern third of Texas, Louisiana, the northern half of New Mexico into the Texas panhandle, and most of Colorado. Moderate or worse drought conditions continue across parts of New Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about a third of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (43%), and about 14% has extreme to exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, two thirds of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (68%), and 4% has extreme to exceptional drought conditions. Lake levels in these exceptional drought areas are at or near historical lows for this time of year. The most significant precipitation in the forecast the next five days is where drought conditions are at a minimum over extreme east Texas. No significant runoff is expected the next five days over the region. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...WGRFC Basins... For this time of year, most rivers are generally near normal baseflow conditions across the eastern WGRFC area and below normal across the western areas. Despite the onset of a cold rain or wintry precipitation forecast over the area through today into Tuesday, no flooding is anticipated; only beneficial moisture as any frozen precipitation will slowly melt and infiltrate soils. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org STORY $$