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212 AGUS74 KFWR 211307 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 807 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013 VALID MAY 21 THROUGH MAY 26 ...CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE PICTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... Showers and thunderstorms will continue across eastern Oklahoma for the remainder of the day. A well advertised upper level storm over the Central Plains will gradually slide east and weaken over the next several days. The broad upper level trough of low pressure over the WGRFC area will also move east, and a weak upper level ridge will build into the region by Wednesday. Over the next few days, the upper level trough will weaken as it slides further east. Precipitation is expected to linger over East Texas today through Wednesday. Thunderstorm activity will eventually shift back north and west from the Panhandle south to the Big Bend Thursday as another strong storm system is expected to move into the Pacific Coast Thursday. Thunderstorm chances will remain in place into the weekend. We will continue to monitor and will update accordingly. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Wednesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 1.0 inches are forecast across central and eastern Texas with higher amounts extending northeastward. For Wednesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Friday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inches are forecast across western Texas and eastern New Mexico. The ongoing drought remains entrenched across the entire WGRFC area. About 68 percent of Texas remains in severe drought, or worse. In New Mexico, drought conditions are even more widespread, with nearly 97 percent of the state in severe to exceptional drought. Localized runoff is possible in the stronger thunderstorms. Widespread significant runoff is possible late Tuesday and Wednesday for parts of Central and East Texas. Mainstem river flooding is possible in the heavier rainfall. Widespread river flooding is not expected. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...WGRFC Basins... While isolated showers continue to bring much needed moisture, all WGRFC forecast points remain below criteria. No significant flooding is expected over the next 5 days. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought MCKEE $$