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662 AGUS74 KFWR 131634 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1133 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015 VALID APRIL 13 THROUGH APRIL 18 ...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FIVE DAYS ACROSS THE WGRFC AREA... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... A frontal boundary lifted northward as a warm front across most of Texas the past 24 hours. As this occurred an area of showers and thunderstorms moved across east Texas. Fairly significant rainfall fell near the front of up to 2.50 inches. Meanwhile, a storm system has moved from the Gulf of California northeastward to southeast New Mexico. This low boosted the stream of upper level moisture from the Pacific, and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico also returned northward as well. The combination of lift from the low and this moisture produced widespread showers and thunderstorms from Sunday afternoon and evening into this morning across most of Texas. Rainfall amounts along parts of the Gulf coast from Houston and Galveston eastward were in the 2.50 to 5 inch range. And over south Texas widespread rainfall of 2.00 to 3.00 inches fell. The upper level low pressure system east of El Paso TX will move slowly northeastward into southwest Oklahoma by Tuesday morning. A punch of dry air is cutting in south of the low from the desert southwest and is creating a decrease in precipitation over southern and western Texas. But this is also enhancing the thunderstorms across extreme northern and eastern Texas. And under the upper low itself in eastern New Mexico and west Texas, showers and thunderstorms are occurring and will continue into Tuesday morning. By Tuesday afternoon the upper level low will get kicked away from the WGRFC area and will move northward into central Kansas Tuesday evening. As this occurs the rainfall over the WGRFC area should diminish, although some rain will likely persist over southeast Texas. Rainfall amounts of around 1.00 inch are possible along the Gulf coast. It appears that most of the WGRFC area will be dry for a brief period from Wednesday morning into Thursday morning. A new upper level low pressure system is forecast to drop southward to just east of the four corners region by Thursday morning. As this low develops further over northwestern New Mexico Thursday a new area of showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Initially the rain will be over southern and western Texas Thursday morning, then spread across the rest of Texas during the day Thursday and continue on into Friday. At this point the rainfall amounts during this time period could be fairly heavy over southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. The upper low will move slowly east to southern Oklahoma on Saturday morning, bringing an end to the precipitation to most areas of the WGRFC area except for the Texas panhandle and extreme north Texas. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Tuesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 inch or more are forecast for eastern New Mexico eastward into all of northern and eastern Texas and Louisiana. The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 1.50 inches, are forecast over extreme north Texas from near the DFW metroplex to near Sherman TX. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for most of the WGRFC area except for southwest Texas, northwestern New Mexico and Colorado. For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or more are forecast for the southeastern third of Texas extending eastward across Louisiana. The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 1.00 inch, are forecast over southeast Texas along the Gulf coast into southern Louisiana. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for the eastern two thirds of Texas, northern New Mexico and southern Colorado. For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or more are forecast for the southeastern quarter of Texas and Louisiana. The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 0.50 inch, are forecast over extreme southeast Texas and southwestern Louisiana. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for most of the WGRFC area. For Thursday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or more are forecast for the northeast half of New Mexico, southern Colorado, most of Texas and Louisiana. The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 2.00 inches, are forecast over extreme southeast Texas and southern Louisiana. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for most of the WGRFC area. Moderate or worse drought conditions continue across parts of New Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about a third of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (36%), and about 15% has extreme to exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, about two thirds of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (62%). Lake levels in the extreme drought areas of Texas are at or near historical lows for this time of year. Recent precipitation events have brought drought relief to parts of Deep South Texas and the southeast third of the state. The rainfall expected over the next five days over the WGRFC area, especially today and again late Thursday/early Friday, could produce some areas of significant runoff. Any flooding would be restricted to the far east or southeast Texas river basins as well as the Gulf coastal basins through this week. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...Neches Basin... ...Minor Flooding... The Neches is still experiencing higher than normal flows due to recent rainfall. More rainfall is expected over the next couple of days and may produce another round of flooding or sustain current levels of flooding. ...Sabine Basin... ...Minor Flooding... With the current level of soil saturation, additional river rises across the Sabine River Basin are possible as brief storms occur over east Texas and may bring or keep some locations above minor flood levels. ...Remainder of WGRFC Basins... With the additional bouts of rainfall throughout Texas, higher than normal flows are possible on many streams and rivers. Another system is expected to develop Thursday/Friday with the heaviest rainfall forecast for southeast Texas focused around the Houston/Beaumont area. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org STORY $$