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631 AGUS74 KFWR 281550 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1049 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016 VALID JUNE 28 THROUGH JULY 3 ...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF THE WGRFC AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some with heavy downpours, have been occurring across the WGRFC forecast area over the past several days. In addition, an upper air disturbance moved northwestward from the Gulf coast to near Midland TX resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms from south into west Texas. Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms, with embedded heavy rain, are forecast to continue today, mainly over central Texas as a weak frontal boundary pushes southward and...southeastern Texas along the Gulf coast, due to interactions along the sea breeze front. A ridge of high pressure will dominate over the western parts of the WGRFC area Wednesday into Friday morning. This high will keep most of our region dry, but upper air disturbances will be passing north of Texas which could bring some rain to the far northern portions of Texas. Otherwise, expect diurnal showers and thunderstorms near the higher elevations of New Mexico and Colorado along with thundershowers over southeast Texas into southern Louisiana due to the sea breeze front. By the Holiday weekend, expect mostly hot and dry conditions across the WGRFC area as an upper level high builds across Texas. A stray shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, especially along the fringes of the forecast area. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Wednesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch are forecast for central and southeast Texas. For Wednesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Friday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch are forecast for northern Texas along the panhandle. Soils continue to be moist across the majority of Texas. Only 1% of Texas is categorized as abnormally dry, with no moderate or greater drought noted. Over New Mexico, 77% of the state is abnormally dry, and 16% remains in the moderate drought category. Even though the soils are wet in Texas, significant runoff is not expected from any rainfall through this forecast period. Minor runoff may occur in the far east Texas river basins, but over the remainder of the WGRFC area little or no runoff will occur. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...Trinity Basin... ...Moderate Flooding... DFW area flood control reservoirs are making flood storage evacuations that will keep elevated flows going down the mainstem passing through Lake Livingston. This will keep the lower portion of the Trinity above normal for an extended period with Liberty (LBYT2) staying in moderate flood level. ...Remainder of WGRFC Basins... Some minor flooding continues in the Brazos, Guadalupe, Neches, and Sabine river basins. The remaining river systems across the eastern portions of WGRFC area remain relatively wet. No significant rainfall is expected within the next 5 days that would generate significant river responses. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide AUSTIN-SMITH $$


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