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295 AGUS74 KFWR 011728 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1128 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016 VALID FEBRUARY 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 6 ...STRONG WINTER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE HEADWATERS OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER BASIN... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... A strong winter storm system is currently impacting the extreme upper part of the Rio Grande watershed in southern Colorado. This system is bringing heavy snowfall to the San Juan Mountains of southwestern Colorado, with some impact to northern New Mexico. Today, this storm system is expected to continue moving eastward across the four corners region along the state boundaries of Arizona/Utah and New Mexico/Colorado. Tuesday and Wednesday, this storm system is expected to make a turn to the northeast, moving across the central plains. By Thursday, any precipitation associated with this storm event is expected to end across the western areas of the WGRFC. Friday, another upper level weather pattern is forecast to begin developing again over the mountains of Colorado. This system is expected to move into New Mexico and west Texas this weekend. No hydrologic impacts are expected over the WGRFC area with this event. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Tuesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast over northern New Mexico and southern Colorado. For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast over northern New Mexico and southern Colorado. For Wednesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Thursday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. Soil moisture continues to be well above average in spite of the somewhat drier weather conditions of late. As a result, less rainfall than usual will be required for runoff to occur. This, along with the vegetation being dormant because we are in winter means runoff will occur faster. Over Texas, less than 2% of the state is categorized as abnormally dry. Over New Mexico, 9% of the state is abnormally dry, and that is mostly confined to the western portions of the state most of which are outside the WGRFC area of responsibility. Precipitation over the next 5 days will not be heavy enough for significant runoff to occur. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...WGRFC Basins... Minor flood and higher flow conditions continues to subside on the Neches, Sabine, and Trinity River basins. Flood control reservoirs within these basins continue to evacuate flood storage keeping downstream flows higher, but within controlled design channel capacities. No significant rainfall is forecast in the next 5 days. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org SHULTZ $$


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