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634 AGUS74 KFWR 041653 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1053 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014 VALID MARCH 4 THROUGH MARCH 9 ...PRECIPITATION CONTINUES IN EAST AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... A strong shortwave trough moved through the Bid Bend region and has tracked across central and southeast Texas through the morning with some thunderstorm activity reported. Freezing rain and sleet pellets have been reported with this storm track. Another upper level disturbance is amplifying as it crosses the Rockies today. This system should drop into the Arklatex region Wednesday night. As Gulf moisture is drawn into the path of this system more rainfall is anticipated in the northen portions of WGRFC forecast area. This system will pass quickly to the east and exit the area by late Wednesday. The outlook closer to the weekend is for an upper level low from the Pacific Northwest to deepen considerably as it moves southeast into the Four Corners area by late Friday. This system should develop into a closed low to our west and be the source of much needed precipitation in New Mexico and Texas from Friday through the weekend. This slow moving system is expected to produce much needed widespread precipitation in both states. Forecast models indicate the potential for additional precipitation into the middle of next week beyond our forecast period ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Wednesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inches are forecast for southeast Texas in the Houston/Beaumont area. For Wednesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Friday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1.50 inches are forecast for the eastern half of Texas with heavier amounts expected to be focused in the Huntsville area. Almost all of New Mexico and 93% of Texas remain in some level of drought category. In addition, 9% of Texas and 15% of New Mexico are in extreme drought. The upper Rio Grande in south central Colorado is in the abnormally dry category. Statewide, in Texas, reservoirs are on average at 64% full. This is well below the median average reservoir storage at this time of year, of about 80% full. There is considerable variability across the state, with many of the reservoirs in the western half of the state below 50% full. Significant improvement in the drought is not expected in the short term for the WGRFC area due to forecast precipitation totals of generally less than one inch over the next five days. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...WGRFC Basins... Rainfall along the Gulf Coast has generated some minor rises with levels higher in eastern portion of the Gulf Coast. Soil moisture levels remain elevated and further rainfall may generate action stage to minor flooding. At this time, no significant flooding is forecast in the next 5 days. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org CAZIER $$