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599 AGUS74 KFWR 171647 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1047 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014 VALID NOVEMBER 17 THROUGH NOVEMBER 22 ...A SLOW WARMING TREND ON TAP FOR THE WGRFC AREA. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... Cold, dry weather in the wake of this weekend`s cold front will prevail. The strong upper level storm over the Great Lakes responsible for this cold weather will continue tracking east over the next few days. The northwesterly flow aloft will "flatten", becoming more zonal later this week. Low level winds will shift to the south, allowing for a gradual return of moisture, and warmer temperatures this week. The next best chance for significant precipitation will be later this week. An upper level storm will move onto the Pacific Coast and into the Rockies. A fast moving disturbance ahead of this storm could help initiate showers and thunderstorms over the eastern third of Texas Thursday and Friday. As the initial upper level storm dives southeast toward El Paso and Far West Texas Saturday, it should tap into abundant gulf moisture, with widespread precipitation expected this weekend. We will monitor this situation and will update accordingly. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Tuesday morning, no significant Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Wednesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Thursday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for East and Southeast Texas. Lighter MAP amounts are expected across the remainder of the eastern half of Texas and for portions of Southern Colorado. Moderate or worse drought conditions continue to be observed over parts of New Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about half the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (44%) and 10% has extreme to exceptional drought. In New Mexico, nearly two thirds of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (63%) and 2% has extreme to exceptional drought. No significant rainfall is anticipated over the next 5 days. No runoff is expected. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...WGRFC Basins... Rises on rivers and creeks are occurring in southeastern Texas in response to this weekend`s rainfall. Forecast points will remain below flood criteria during the next 5 days. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org WALLER $$