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334 AGUS74 KFWR 201541 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1041 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016 VALID JULY 20 THROUGH JULY 25 ...MOSTLY HOT AND DRY ACROSS THE WGRFC AREA TODAY... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... Not much change to the weather across the WGRFC area as high pressure at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere remains in place bringing hot and dry conditions to the majority of the region over the next few days. This includes decreasing shower and thunderstorm activity over Colorado and New Mexico as high pressure builds west into those areas. An isolated shower or two remains possible over southeast Texas into southern Louisiana, along the Gulf coast due to the sea breeze front. Towards the end of the week, isolated diurnal showers and thunderstorms return over portions of eastern and southern New Mexico and south central Colorado, mainly due daytime heating, and orographic lift. By late Friday into the upcoming weekend, the rain chances increase as a shortwave trough pushes eastward weakening the ridge across the region. This, along with some moisture advection will result in some scattered showers for portions of the WGRFC area. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Thursday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch are forecast for the western portions of the San Juan Mountains in the upper Rio Grande in south central Colorado. For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch are forecast for the western portions of the San Juan Mountains in the upper Rio Grande in south central Colorado. For Friday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Saturday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch are forecast for the western portions of the San Juan Mountains in the upper Rio Grande in south central Colorado.in Soils continue to be moist across the majority of Texas. Only 3% of Texas is categorized as abnormally dry, with no moderate or greater drought noted. Over New Mexico, 77% of the state is abnormally dry, and 16% remains in the moderate drought category. Even though the soils are wet in Texas, 6% of the state is experiencing abnormally dry conditions. The lack of widespread rainfall this month combined with limited rainfall forecast over the next five days will lead to continued drying process through this forecast period. No significant runoff is expected. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...Trinity Basin... ...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts... Above normal flows continue on the Elm Fork of the Trinity River near Carrollton (CART2). This elevated flow will continue through at least this week as flood pools are evacuated from upstream reservoirs. ...Brazos Basin... ...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts... Above normal flows continue along the Brazos River at Richmond (RMOT2). The elevated flows are expected to continue through the next several days. ...Remainder of WGRFC Basins... Several basins across eastern portions of the WGRFC area remain saturated. Higher than normal seasonal flows are occurring in the eastern half of the state as a result. However, no significant rain is expected over the next 5 days, so no significant river responses are expected over this time frame. Daily convective activity can cause minor rises anywhere in the forecast area, but most areas have little chance of seeing any convective activity during the next week. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide AUSTIN-SMITH $$


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