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871 AGUS74 KFWR 181620 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1120 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014 VALID OCTOBER 18 THROUGH OCTOBER 23 ...PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGHOUT NEW MEXICO AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE IN TEXAS... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... A weak disturbance behind an upper level ridge is crossing northeastward across New Mexico today. Generally light rainfall amounts are being observed especially in the eastern and southern portions of the state. This disturbance is expected to exit the area to the northeast today, bringing a temporary end to precipitation in New Mexico. Onshore flow along the lower Texas Gulf Coast is occurring due to low pressure in the Bay of Campeche. This is producing showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain near the coast. This activity is expected to continue in Deep South Texas today and move westward to the Rio Grande tonight. A more significant upper level disturbance is currently moving onshore over California. This system is forecast to shift slowly eastward over northwestern Mexico over the weekend and early next week. Renewed shower and thunderstorm activity can be expected in New Mexico, Colorado, and the Trans Pecos region of Texas from Sunday through Tuesday as the disturbance approaches the area. Another upper level trough is forecast to move over the northwestern United States mid-week, bringing another chance of showers and thunderstorms to New Mexico and Colorado. Continued onshore flow will keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms along the Texas Gulf Coast throughout the forecast period. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Sunday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inch are forecast for portions of Deep South Texas and the Lower Rio Grande Valley. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for New Mexico, southern Colorado, and northwestern Texas. For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of up to 0.5 inch are forecast for the Rio Grande from Elephant Butte to Brownsville and for portions of Southern Colorado and northern New Mexico. For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are forecast for the Rio Grande between El Paso and Presidio. MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inch are forecast for portions of southeastern New Mexico and for the rest of the Trans Pecos region of Texas. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for portions of eastern and southern New Mexico and for the Texas Gulf Coast. For Tuesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are forecast for New Mexico and southern Colorado. MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inch are forecast for the Texas Panhandle and northern Trans Pecos region of Texas. MAP amounts of up to 0.25 inch are forecast for Deep South Texas and for the rest of western Texas. Moderate or worse drought conditions continue to be observed over parts of New Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about half the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (49%) and 10% has extreme to exceptional drought. In New Mexico, nearly two thirds of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (63%) and 8% has extreme to exceptional drought. The forecasted rainfall is expected to greatly alleviate drought concerns for the high category drought areas in Central Texas. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...WGRFC Basins... All WGRFC river forecast points are at or below bankfull conditions. Rainfall forecasted in the next five days will not cause mainstem river flooding. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org PHILPOTT $$