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706 AGUS74 KFWR 211540 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1039 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016 VALID MAY 21 THROUGH MAY 26 ...THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... Little change in the large scale weather pattern over the next few days. A southwesterly flow aloft will bring a series of disturbances across the WGRFC area. Combined with afternoon heating, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over portions of West and North Texas Saturday and Sunday. If any thunderstorm clusters form into an organized complex, this complex will move in a generally easterly pattern spreading rainfall across the eastern portions of the WGRFC area. With plenty of moisture available, any fronts/dry lines/outflow boundaries could provided the focus for shower and thunderstorm development each day. Generally speaking, by the end of the 5 day period, most of the WGRFC area should see "some" rain. Locally heavy rainfall is possible in the more organized thunderstorms. Widespread significant rainfall is not expected. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Sunday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for the Texas Panhandle, Rolling Plains, and West Central Texas. Lighter MAP amounts are expected elsewhere. For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.50 to 1 inch are forecast for Northeast and East Texas. MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for the remainder of Texas. For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.50 to 1 inch are forecast for North Central Texas, the Big Country, and the Rolling Plains. MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for the remainder of Texas. For Tuesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for most of Texas. Soils are fairly moist across a good part of the state, especially the eastern half. Texas is now categorized as being 3% abnormally dry, with less than 1% of the state in the moderate drought category. Over New Mexico, 83% of the state is abnormally dry, and 40% remains in the moderate drought category. The rainfall the next 5 days will not be heavy enough for widespread significant runoff. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...Guadalupe Basin... ...Moderate Flooding... Heavy rain Tuesday night in the city of Seguin has generated a Flood Wave that has started its way down the Guadalupe River. Another bout of heavy rains Wednesday generated a second wave of runoff. The hydrologic model indicates that Victoria (VICT2) and Bloomington (DUPT2) will reach moderate flood levels. ...San Antonio Basin... ...Moderate Flooding... Locally heavy rainfall produced rises across the San Antonio System. Upstream/headwater points have crested/are cresting. It will take several days for the flood waves to work downstream toward Goliad (GLIT2) ...Brazos Basin... ...Moderate Flooding... Higher than normal flows are occurring on portions of the Brazos due to recent rainfall and releases from upstream flood control reservoirs. However, The Little River near Rockdale (RLRT2) crested into moderate flood stage and is slowly falling. ...Lavaca-Navidad Basin... ...Minor Flooding... Locally heavy rains caused some parts of the Lavaca-Navidad river system to rise into higher flood levels over the past couple of days. No additional flood impacts are expected as routed waters make their way downstream. ...Trinity Basin... ...Minor Flooding... Elevated flows are continuing along many reaches of the Trinity and its tributaries. The Trinity at Trinidad (TDDT2) remains in minor flood levels but is expected to rise near minor flood stage tomorrow. ...Colorado Basin... ...Minor Flooding... Heavy rains caused Willbarger creek (EGYT2) and the Big Sandy creek (EGZT2) to rise into moderate flood levels over the past couple of days. Other points downstream along the mainstem of the Colorado will swell from the routed waters into minor flood levels over the next day or so. ...Neches Basin... ...Minor Flooding... The upper Neches River Basin is continuing to slowly recede. The Neches River at Diboll (DIBT2) is continuing to recede but remains at minor flood levels. Sam Rayburn Reservoir continues to release flood water. Higher than normal flows are occurring on the lower Neches. ...Sabine Basin... ...Minor Flooding... Toledo Bend Reservoir continues to pass inflows, keeping the lower Sabine River at higher than normal levels with minor flooding downstream at Deweyville (DWYT2). ...San Bernard Basin... ...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts... The mainstem along the San Bernard remains at elevated flows as the flood waters are routed downstream. ...Remainder of WGRFC Basins... Soils remain wet over most of the eastern half of the WGRFC forecast area. Any widespread heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding on the smaller flashier headwater basins. After today, rainfall should take a few days break before another round of rainstorms start up early next week. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide WALLER $$


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