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249 AGUS74 KFWR 231659 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1056 AM CST MON NOV 23 2015 VALID NOVEMBER 23 THROUGH NOVEMBER 28 ...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... An area of high pressure will continue to dominate most of the region the next couple of day. As a result, cool and dry conditions will persist through Thursday. By early tomorrow, the area of high pressure is expected to slowly shift towards the east and allow an increase in southerly flow across South and Central Texas. Thereafter, abundant moisture will also begin to increase across the area, ahead of a developing upper low over the Pacific U.S. The upper low which is now developing over the Pacific U.S., is still forecast to slowly move towards the east in the coming days. This system is forecast to move over portions of California and Utah sometime Friday morning, and remain around that general area through Monday of next week. Based on this pattern, abundant moisture will continue streaming into portions of the WGRFC for several days. By Thursday/Friday, a strong cold front is expected to move across North and Central Texas, which is when the bulk of the heavy rains will begin. In addition, the weather models are also forecasting a Pacific Tropical Disturbance moving up into Mexico on late Friday/early Saturday. This system could potential cause some additional moisture to interact with a strong cold front, which may increase some rainfall amounts across the area. In general, rainfall amounts of up to 3.00 inches are possible for areas along and north of I-20, with higher amounts closer to the Red River area. Early indications from the latest models suggest a northward shift with the track of the upper low, which would allow a northward shift in with the highest rainfall amounts. We will continue to monitor the model guidance for any changes, and will update accordingly. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Tuesday morning, no significant Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Wednesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Thursday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of up to 3.00 inches are forecast for areas along and north of I-20. Topsoil moisture has increased significantly with recent rainfall events which means it will require less rainfall for runoff to occur. That, along with the vegetation becoming more dormant as the growing season comes to an end, means runoff will be quicker. Over Texas only 10% of the state is abnormally dry, while over New Mexico, 26% of the state is abnormally dry. The heaviest rainfall with this next cold front will be offshore, thus no significant runoff is expected. The remaining predicted rainfall will not be heavy enough to generate significant runoff the next five days. A storm is expected after this five-day period which may produce minor runoff over especially northern Texas by next Friday. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...Trinity Basin... ...Minor Flooding... Higher than normal flows continue across the lower Trinity River. River stages at most of these locations have crested and are now falling. Lake Livingston continues to decrease their releases. River stages downstream of this reservoir will continue to recede. ...Neches Basin... ...Minor Flooding... Higher than normal flows with minor flooding continue at various locations across the Neches River basin. River stages have crest and are now falling. ...Sabine Basin... ...Minor Flooding... Recent heavy rainfall throughout the Sabine River basin has generated higher bankfull and minor flood level flows. These flows levels are now receding. Toledo Bend Reservoir will continue generating power 24 hours per day, 7 days per week. ...Brazos Basin... ...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts... Higher flows are occurring on the Navasota River and lower Brazos River. River stages have crested and are now slowly receding. ...Remainder of WGRFC Basins... Soil moisture remains high across many river basins because of recent rainfall. Although rainfall is not expected over the next couple days, another weather pattern is beginning to set up. Heavy rainfall is expected later this week across a large area of Texas. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org MCCANTS $$