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985 AGUS74 KFWR 101608 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1108 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2014 VALID SEPTEMBER 10 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 15 ...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL RETURN TO TEXAS LATER THIS WEEK... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... Rain chances will increase as a fairly strong cold front should push through most of Texas by the end of the week. With a southwesterly flow aloft, courtesy of a large scale upper level trough of low pressure, the upper level flow will be more parallel to the surface front. This will inhibit the front from completely clearing the area. The end result: rain chances will remain in the forecast through the weekend and into early next week. For New Mexico and Southern Colorado, not much change as Pacific moisture continues to surge into the Desert Southwest. Widespread showers with isolated thunderstorms are expected to continue over New Mexico and Southern Colorado each day, tapering off later in the weekend. For Texas, showers and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the front starting Wednesday evening for North Central Texas. Rain chances will increase across the remainder of Texas Thursday as the front sags south. With a warm and moist airmass in place, this front should have little trouble initiating widespread precipitation activity. Usually, fronts tend to clear out the precipitation. This front is not deep enough or strong enough to clear the precipitation. Upper level disturbances will also help trigger showers and thunderstorms this weekend, especially for the southern half of Texas. By the time the weekend is over, several areas could receive in excess of 1 to 1.50 inches. And more rain is expected beyond the scope of this forecast. For the longer term, longer range models indicate organized tropical activity over the Eastern Pacific Ocean early next week. All tropical forecasts are issued by the National Hurricane Center. But the large scale features hint at deep tropical moisture spreading over the Desert Southwest for the early to middle parts of next week. We will continue to monitor this situation for the possibility of heavy rainfall over New Mexico, Northern Mexico, and Southwest Texas next week. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Thursday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for Northeast and North Central Texas. Lighter MAP amounts are expected across New Mexico and Southern Colorado. For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.50 to 1 inch are forecast for Northeast Texas. Lighter MAP amounts are expected for the remainder of the WGRFC area. For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.50 to 1 inch are forecast for most of Texas. Lighter MAP amounts are expected for the remainder of the WGRFC area. For Saturday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for most of the WGRFC area. Drought persists over Texas and New Mexico. Statewide, New Mexico has no areas of exceptional drought while less than 3% of Texas remains in exceptional drought. Severe drought conditions are impacting 40% of New Mexico and 34% of Texas. The monsoonal rains in New Mexico continue to ease the drought conditions in many areas of the state. In Texas, recent rainfall has eased the drought conditions primarily over the southern and eastern parts of the state. No significant runoff is expected across Texas for the next 5 days. Depending on locally heavy rainfall patterns, some runoff is possible across New Mexico. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...Rio Grande Basin... ...Minor Flooding... Elevated flows continue at Candelaria and look to remain that way for the next few days. Additional rainfall could generate further rises into flood stage but is not forecast at this time. The Flood Wave will dissipate into Lake Amistad over the next few days. ...Remainder of WGRFC Basins... Other locations in the WGRFC area remain near seasonal low flow conditions. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org WALLER $$