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306 AGUS74 KFWR 141632 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1131 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014 VALID APRIL 14 THROUGH APRIL 19 ...PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TODAY, THEN IT WILL BE DRY FOR A FEW DAYS... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... A large upper level system moved from the Desert Southwest across Texas the past 24 hours, and as this low passed it pushed a very strong cold front into Texas. The combination of the front, atmospheric moisture and the low pressure system produced showers and thunderstorms over primarily over northern and eastern Texas. The heaviest rain fell just outside the WGRFC area from extreme northeast Texas into southwest Arkansas. Precipitation also fell across the higher elevations of Colorado and New Mexico. This morning, as the cold front continues to move south, showers and thunderstorms have increased from south central into east Texas and Louisiana. The highest rainfall amounts are expected across east Texas today. All precipitation should be move out of the WGRFC area tonight as a secondary trough of low pressure moves across Texas. Once the cold front moves through the region, very cool temperatures and drier air are forecast, as a ridge of high pressure moves into the region. The ridge will flatten by Wednesday but not before it brings the area dry weather on Tuesday and Wednesday. By Wednesday evening an upper air disturbance is forecast to develop over the Colorado Rockies. This trough may produce precipitation across Colorado. But as this disturbance moves across Kansas and Oklahoma Thursday most of the showers and thunderstorms will be to the north of the WGRFC area. Some rain may occur across northern and eastern Texas but it will not be significant. On Friday a weak ridge of high pressure will bring mostly dry weather to the WGRFC area. But by Saturday morning a new upper air disturbance will be moving through the Desert Southwest. Moisture will be increasing ahead of this disturbance, and rainfall is forecast to become fairly widespread on Saturday. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Tuesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast from south central through east central Texas and Louisiana. MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for the southeast third of Texas, portions of northwest Texas, northeast New Mexico and southeast Colorado. For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Wednesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for portions of southern Colorado. For Thursday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast for portions of southeast Texas and extreme northeast Texas and most of Louisiana. MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for the northeast half of Texas, western and northern New Mexico and southern Colorado. The drought conditions have been deteriorating over the last several weeks over most of the region. Almost all of New Mexico and 85% of Texas remain in some level of drought category. In addition, 28% of Texas and 25% of New Mexico are in extreme drought. Statewide, in Texas, reservoirs are, on average, are around 65% full. This is below average for this time of year, with average being about 80% full. There is considerable variability across the state, with many of the reservoirs in the western half of the state below 50% full. Significant rainfall is occurring over south and east Texas and could produce minor runoff, especially in the eastern river basins. Mainstem river flooding is not anticipated at the moment but we will continue to monitor the rainfall patterns today. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...Rio Grande Basin... ...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts... Amistad increased releases late last week through power generation that is generating elevated flows along the mainstem from Amistad to Falcon Lake. No significant impacts expected, although the river at Columbia Bridge (CBBT2) is above a warning level for pumps and livestock in the area. The duration of Amistad releases unknown at this time. ...Sabine Basin... ...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts... Toledo Bend Reservoir continues 24/7 full power generation given increased inflows from recent rainfall. Downstream, flows have increased at Deweyville (DWYT2) expected to remain near minor flood stage through the week. No significant impacts are expected, but high levels should be noted for recreational activity. ...Remainder of WGRFC Basins... No significant rainfall is expected in the next few days in the WGRFC area. No significant impacts along the mainstems expected. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org STORY $$