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955 AGUS74 KFWR 171716 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1115 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014 VALID DECEMBER 17 THROUGH DECEMBER 22 ...CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... The water vapor satellite imagery shows an impressive plume of tropical Pacific moisture streaming northeast over northern Mexico and most of Texas today. However, there should be light precipitation in the WGRFC region due to upper level ridging. The exceptions are heavier precipitation amounts being possible in deep South Texas and northeastern Mexico as well as western and central New Mexico. An upper level trough along the Pacific coast is deepening as it moves to the east. This system is expected to generate several upper level disturbances that will bring widespread precipitation across New Mexico and Texas from today through Saturday morning. For New Mexico, two quick moving troughs will cross today leaving 3-5 inches of snow at higher elevations by the time it leaves the state Thursday night. The most favorable areas for precipitation are northwestern and central parts of the state. The heaviest amounts of precipitation from this Pacific system are expected to fall late Thursday night and Friday morning in the southern two thirds of Texas. The Hill Country and points to the south including Corpus Christi and points east northeast to the Louisiana border are expected to receive the heaviest amounts Thursday into Friday. The following 24 hours from Friday into Saturday, the eastern third of Texas will be the focus of the next round of precipitation. This period will see rainfall totals in the 1-3 inch range. The next potential for precipitation is Monday and Tuesday over north central New Mexico and over the northern portions of Texas. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Thursday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch are forecast for north Texas with the heaviest amounts north of the DFW metroplex. Lesser widespread amounts are forecast for the rest of Texas. For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to one inch are forecast for the southern two thirds of Texas with the heaviest amount covering an area from the Hill Country east northeast to the Louisiana border. For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 2.00 inches are forecast for the eastern half of Texas with the heavier amounts increasing from west to east. For Saturday into Monday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. Moderate or worse drought conditions continue to be observed over parts of New Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about half the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (43%) and 10% has extreme to exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, nearly two thirds of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (65%) and 4% has extreme to exceptional drought conditions. Soils are generally dry enough such that forecast rainfall will generate mostly minor runoff. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...WGRFC Basins... Current soil conditions remain damp over the eastern portion of Texas with states drying significantly westward. The forecasted rainfall over the next five days places precipitation over the saturated areas; however, currently the amounts are not heavy enough to create any flooding. The most sensitive areas are the headwaters of the Sabine and Neches as well as the central Trinity area. If rainfall amounts increase significantly above forecast only than will minor rises begin to occur. Otherwise no flooding is expected for the forecast period. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org CAZIER $$


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