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065 AGUS74 KFWR 291610 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1045 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015 VALID JULY 29 THROUGH AUGUST 3 ...HOT AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEK OVER TEXAS, WHILE MONSOONAL RAINS CONTINUE OVER NEW MEXICO... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... A strong upper level high pressure ridge is located over Arkansas and eastern Oklahoma again today. This ridge will be anchored over or near the WGRFC region and continue to dominate the weather over Texas through at least Thursday morning. As a result, hot and dry conditions are expected to persist across most of the forecast area. This ridge has actually shifted a bit to the north. While this shift is minor in regards to the overall impact on our hot, dry conditions, this shift has allowed a better chance for diurnal showers and thunderstorms over east and southeast Texas into Louisiana. These showers will continue each afternoon, especially from Thursday into the weekend. By Thursday the ridge is forecast to begin drifting westward with little impact on our dry weather. By later Friday the ridge will be centered over or near the four corners region and will remain there through Sunday. This shift in the ridge position not only increases the chance for rain over southeast Texas near the coast but over other portions of Texas as well. Upper level disturbances will continue to move around the periphery of the ridge and will cross Texas. While the chances for significant rainfall is small, it is a chance for some rain nonetheless. Monsoonal activity is expected to continue over the next few days over portions of New Mexico, Colorado and far west Texas. The showers and thunderstorms should be rather limited through today, but as the ridge shifts position Wednesday and Thursday the areal coverage and the intensity of the rain should increase once again. While there likely will be some flashflood concerns over New Mexico especially on Wednesday and Thursday, no significant mainstem river flooding is expected the next five days. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Thursday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 2.00 inches or more are forecast for northeastern New Mexico with the heaviest amount focused in the upper Pecos River basin. For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1.00 inch are forecast for the northern half of New Mexico covering the upper Rio Grande and Pecos River basins. For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch are forecast for north central and northwest New Mexico and several locations throughout Texas around Lubbock/Amarillo to Wichita Falls and the Hill Country west of San Antonio. For Saturday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch in north central New Mexico. Many lakes, especially over the northeastern half of Texas, are full and are releasing water according to regulation rules and schedules. Soil moisture has been very high across much of Texas from rainfall over May and June. However, the hot, dry weather we have had in July, along with the expectation of mostly dry weather over the next several days, is causing the topsoil to dry out. The rainfall forecast over the next five days will not be heavy enough to cause significant runoff except near the higher terrain of New Mexico. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...Neches Basin... ...Minor Flooding... Releases from flood control reservoir Sam Rayburn have raised the Neches River near Town Bluff (TBFT2) to just over flood stage. Releases will continue to fluctuate as the reservoirs make daily adjustments. ...Trinity Basin... ...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts... North Texas lakes continue to slowly evacuate flood pool storage via controlled releases in order to return to desired conservation pool levels. Lake Grapevine and Lake Lewisville both reduced their releases recently allowing river levels at Carrollton to finally drop below minor flood level. System-wide, the reservoir releases have kept streamflows downstream at higher than normal flow levels, which is expected to continue for several weeks as the water works its way to the Gulf. ...Remainder of WGRFC Basins... The remainder of WGRFC rivers are flowing below criteria at near or above normal baseflow conditions. Significant rainfall is not forecast in the WGRFC area in the next 5 days. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org CAZIER $$