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131 AGUS74 KFWR 181626 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1058 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014 VALID JULY 18 THROUGH JULY 23 ...STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... An upper level trough in conjunction with a cold front brought quite a bit of precipitation to the WGRFC area overnight and will continue through the day. Rainfall totals have totaled 2 to 4 inches inches in many areas in east and central Texas. Areas around San Antonio and Austin also received locally heavy rainfall amounts from 4 to 8 inches. These rains have provided beneficial ground-soaking rains over the past two days with little runoff impact with the exception of flooding in Denton County. The rains continue moving south southeast with moderately heavy rains still being produced along its boundary. Monsoonal activity continues to occur over New Mexico into southern Colorado. Rainfall associated with this is helping to alleviate adverse impacts due to the on-going drought over the region. Some moderate to heavy rainfall amounts have been reported over the Albuquerque area and points north. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Saturday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch are forecast for south Texas as the system exits the area. For Saturday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Sunday into Monday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Monday into Wednesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. Extreme to exceptional drought persists over parts of southwest Texas, as well as over the western parts of north Texas into the Texas Panhandle and northeast New Mexico. Statewide, less than 1% of New Mexico and about 5% of Texas are in exceptional drought. But, severe drought conditions are impacting 86% of New Mexico and 37% of Texas. During the next 5 days the rainfall may be heavy enough to produce runoff but will have little impact to the drought conditions for Texas or New Mexico. Some flood" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">flash flooding may occur with isolated heavy thunderstorms but mo mainstem river flooding is expected. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...Rio Grande Basin... ...Minor Flooding... Locally heavy rains in the area of the Rio Grande above the Rio Conchos confluence (PIOT2) near Presidio and Ojinaga have caused a rapid rise on the mainstem. ...Neches Basin... ...Minor Flooding... Ayish Bayou near San Augustine (AYIT2) has responded to the locally heavy rains and has risen into minor flood stage this morning. River responses elsewhere in the Neches have been minimal. ...Trinity Basin... ...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts... Very heavy rains around the Denton area have caused significant runoff events in several smaller drainages. Denton creek near Justin (DCJT2) crested above minor flood stage overnight and is falling rapidly. The Big Sandy creek near Bridgeport (BRPT2) crested above bankfull yesterday. The West Fork Trinity near Boyd (BOYT2) has responded to locally heavy runoff by rising to bankfull this morning, It should be near crest by the afternoon and begin to fall Saturday. ...Brazos Basin... ...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts... Heavy rains near Georgetown on the South Fork San Gabriel River (GETT2) rose repidly this morning above acion stage and has crested slightly below 9 feet. ...Remainder of WGRFC Basins... All other WGRFC river forecast locations are below bankfull level. Significant rainfall is not forecast through the end of the forecast period. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org CAZIER $$


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