Links in the discussion text will either open a (small) new browser window with a definition
or take you to another web page with more information.
A more complete Weather & Hydrologic Glossary is Available Here
448 AGUS74 KFWR 031613 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1113 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015 VALID OCTOBER 3 THROUGH OCTOBER 8 ...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF TEXAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE RAIN FALLS OVER NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHERN COLORADO... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... An upper level ridge of high pressure continues to dominate the weather over Texas this morning, while a series of storms systems affect the west. A northwesterly upper air flow has pushed a wave of cooler, drier air into Texas. Through this weekend, the upper level ridge over east Texas will persist, and will continue to produce dry conditions over most of Texas into the first half of next week. But a low pressure system extends from Wyoming into eastern New Mexico this morning, and this trough has been producing showers and thunderstorms from northwest Oklahoma through the Texas panhandle into eastern and southern New Mexico through the morning. Meanwhile, a new storm system is moving across Oregon. This low will be moving southward to a position along the California coastline Sunday afternoon. As this occurs additional moisture from the eastern Pacific Ocean will be streaming northward and will move over New Mexico. This will result in showers and a few thunderstorms continuing over a good part of New Mexico and far west Texas through the weekend into next week. The closed low over the west will be slow moving and will cross southern California and southern Nevada into Arizona by Wednesday morning. So while east Texas and western Louisiana remain dry, precipitation will continue over New Mexico, southern Colorado, and west Texas into the middle of next week. Rainfall amounts in excess of 1.50 inches are possible over parts of New Mexico and southwestern Colorado over the next 5 days. By Thursday morning the upper air low will progress slowly eastward into eastern New Mexico. As this occurs the area of rain will develop eastward into more of Texas. After this five day period, the upper low is forecast to move over Texas, bringing with it the prospects of some fairly widespread rainfall. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Sunday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 inch or more are forecast over central and eastern New Mexico into the Texas panhandle. The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 1.00 inch, are forecast over central New Mexico east of the Sandia Mountains. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over northwest Texas into the panhandle, far west Texas, most of Colorado and most of New Mexico. For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast over central and southern New Mexico, a small part of southwestern Colorado, and far west Texas. The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 1.00 inch, are forecast over southwestern New Mexico. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over far west Texas, the Texas panhandle, southern Colorado and much of New Mexico. For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast over central and western New Mexico into southwestern Colorado, and over far west Texas. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over the western quarter of Texas, a good part of Colorado and most of New Mexico. For Tuesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast over most of New Mexico into southwestern Colorado, and for the western third of Texas. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over the western two thirds of Texas and all of Colorado and New Mexico. Drought conditions have returned to a good part of Texas. Only the Gulf coast, far west Texas and the panhandle are free from abnormally dry conditions. Topsoil moisture has decreased over the past month, which means it will require more rainfall to fall for runoff to occur. In Texas 65% of the state is abnormally dry, with 18% in severe drought. In New Mexico, 43% of the state is also abnormally dry. Some beneficial rainfall will occur over New Mexico the next several days, and some runoff will likely occur. Elsewhere, the rainfall forecast over the next five days will not be heavy enough to cause significant runoff. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...WGRFC Basins... WGRFC rivers are below bankfull. The forecast for the weekend shows little to no rainfall in Texas, keeping all the rivers in the area near normal if not below normal levels. The forecast rainfall for the next 5 days may cause some minor flooding over eastern and southern New Mexico. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org STORY $$