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583 AGUS74 KFWR 241707 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1107 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015 VALID FEBRUARY 24 THROUGH MARCH 1 ...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... More widespread precipitation is expected for the northern half of the WGRFC area through the weekend. A potent upper level storm over Arizona will race east across the area, bringing a band of precipitation (mostly snow) from central New Mexico through North Central Texas and Northeast Texas. In the wake of this storm, expect a mini-warm up for Texas as the next storm in the assembly gets its act together. The resulting northwesterly flow aloft Thursday will help push an upper level storm along the easternmost mountains in the WGRFC portion of New Mexico. But there is more...A strong Pacific storm will move down the Pacific Coast and into Central California. This pattern will set up a southwesterly flow aloft, favorable for the development of more rain/snow for Northern New Mexico and Southern Colorado Friday, into the weekend. By the time the week is over, many areas of Southern Colorado/Northern New Mexico will be measuring storm total snowfall in feet. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Wednesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for all of the WGRFC area. For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for North Central through Northeast Texas and for Southern Colorado. Lighter MAP amounts are expected across the remainder of the WGRFC area. For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for Northern New Mexico and Southern Colorado. Lighter MAP amounts are expected across the remainder of New Mexico. For Friday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 1 inch or more are expected for Southern Colorado. MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for New Mexico. MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for the remainder of the WGRFC area. Moderate or worse drought conditions continue across parts of New Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about a third of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (43%), and about 14% has extreme to exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, two thirds of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (68%), and 4% has extreme to exceptional drought conditions. Lake levels in these exceptional drought areas are at or near historical lows for this time of year. The most significant precipitation in the forecast the next five days is where drought conditions are at a minimum over extreme east Texas. Therefore, some minor runoff is possible over east Texas, but no significant runoff is expected elsewhere the next five days. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...Remainder of WGRFC Basins... Most rivers are generally near normal baseflow conditions across the eastern WGRFC area and below normal across the western areas. Continued periods of cold rain and wintry precipitation over the area through today into Thursday will be beneficial moisture as any frozen precipitation will slowly melt and infiltrate soils. A few criteria forecasts may be necessary in the flashier basins of east Texas through the period. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org WALLER $$


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