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439 AGUS74 KFWR 151552 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1050 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014 VALID SEPTEMBER 15 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 20 ...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... Scattered showers will continue across most of the WGRFC area through tomorrow. Rainfall amounts are very light, mainly averaging less than 0.10 per hour. Therefore no significant issues have been reported or expected. In general, the upper level pattern will keep small chances of precipitation in the forecast through the remainder of the week. However, no significant flooding is expected at this time. Elsewhere, Hurricane Odile made landfall near the Baja California this morning. Over the next several days, remnants from this system are expected to move over Arizona and New Mexico. Abundant moisture can be seen on the latest water vapor imagery moving into the area. This along with a very unstable atmosphere will allow significant rainfall to impact the area towards the end of the week. flood" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">flash flooding will continue to remain the greatest concern, however this area and along with most areas across the state of Texas, have already received significant amounts of rainfall over the past week. Therefore, the possibility of some higher than normal flows and minor flooding occurring during this time frame still exists. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Tuesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for portions of Deep South Texas. For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for portions of the southeast Texas coast, North Texas and southern New Mexico. For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for portions of the southeast Texas and southwestern New Mexico. For Thursday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch to 0.50 inch are forecast for portions of southeast Texas and southwestern New Mexico. Drought persists, but is slowly improving over Texas and New Mexico. Statewide, New Mexico has no areas of exceptional drought while less than 2% of Texas remains in exceptional drought. Severe drought conditions are impacting less than 40% of New Mexico and 36% of Texas. No significant runoff is expected across Texas for the next 5 days. Depending on locally heavy rainfall patterns, some runoff is possible across New Mexico and Deep South Texas. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...WGRFC Basins... Soil states for the most part remain elevated througout most of the state of Texas. Forecasted rainfall around the coastal regions where soils are already primed could potentially see some isolated flooding, but right now no significant flooding is expected. Drier soil states remain over Central Texas and appear to stay that way from the forecast. Coastal flood" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">flash flooding will also be a concern for those areas that recieve isolated higher rain values. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org MCCANTS $$


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