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539 AGUS74 KFWR 221629 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1128 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014 VALID JULY 22 THROUGH JULY 27 ...WHILE THE MONSOON CONTINUES OVER THE WEST, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER MOST OF TEXAS UNTIL NEXT SUNDAY... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... An upper level high pressure system is centered over the Colorado/New Mexico border region this morning. This feature will remain a dominant factor in our weather pattern throughout the rest of the week into the weekend. As the ridge remains over or near the four corners region, it will keep temperatures warm and will retard rainfall over most of the WGRFC forecast area. The forecast is for generally rain-free conditions for Texas, with the exception of continued isolated thunderstorms along and near the Gulf coast in southeast Texas fed by off-shore breezes. The best chances for rain over east and southeast Texas will be Wednesday as an easterly wave of low pressure approaches the WGRFC area from Louisiana. This wave will weaken as it approaches the ridge over Texas on Thursday, but isolated thunderstorms near the coast and possibly over east Texas will continue Thursday and Friday. Farther west, a monsoonal plume of moisture moving up from the south will feed storm activity each afternoon and evening for the next 5 days. Areas of the middle Rio Grande valley and the eastern slopes of New Mexico should be affected today. This activity should continue nearly every afternoon, providing some potential for convective activity as rainfall associated with this system helps to alleviate some of the adverse impacts of the persistent drought that has plagued the region. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Wednesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 of an inch are forecast for eastern New Mexico due to monsoonal activity. Lighter amounts of MAP are forecast over southern Colorado, much of New Mexico, southeast Texas and southern Louisiana. For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch are forecast over southwest New Mexico, as well as over extreme southeastern Texas and southern Louisiana. Lighter amounts of MAP are forecast over southern Colorado, the western two thirds of New Mexico, the middle and upper Texas Gulf coastal areas, and southern Louisiana. For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch are forecast in the headwaters of the upper Rio Grande around the Taos NM area including the New Mexico/Colorado border region. Lighter amounts of MAP are forecast over southern Colorado, the northwestern third of New Mexico, over and near the Texas Gulf coastal areas into east Texas, and Louisiana. For Friday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch are forecast in the headwaters of the upper Rio Grande including southwest Colorado and northern New Mexico. Lighter amounts of MAP are forecast over most of Colorado, much of New Mexico, southeast Texas and southern Louisiana. Extreme to exceptional drought persists over parts of southwest Texas, as well as over the western parts of north Texas into the Texas Panhandle and northeast New Mexico. Statewide, less than 1% of New Mexico and about 5% of Texas are in exceptional drought. But, severe drought conditions are impacting 78% of New Mexico and 37% of Texas. The monsoonal rains in New Mexico have reduced the drought conditions over the past couple weeks, while over Texas the drought has diminished over roughly the southeast quarter. More rain is forecast the next 5 days over New Mexico, but over Texas rainfall amounts will be minimal and will be concentrated mainly along and near the Gulf coast. Therefore, no significant runoff is expected the next 5 days. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...Neches Basin... ...Minor Flooding... The Angelina River near Lufkin (LUFT2) is forecast to remain around flood stage for the next couple days. River responses elsewhere across the Neches River Basin are below forecast criteria levels. ...Remainder of WGRFC Basins... All other WGRFC river forecast locations are below bankfull level. Significant rainfall is not forecast through the end of the forecast period. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org STORY $$


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