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354 AGUS74 KFWR 221601 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1101 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016 VALID JULY 22 THROUGH JULY 27 ...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE WGRFC AREA INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH A SLIGHT CHANGE NEXT WEEK... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... A ridge of high pressure at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere is centered over western Oklahoma this morning. This ridge is forecast to remain in place for the majority of the region over the next few days. As a result, hot and dry conditions will remain the dominate weather over the WGRFC area. Hydrologically, we are experiencing drying soils after such a wet Spring. Over the next couple days an isolated shower or two remains possible over southeast Texas into southern Louisiana, especially along the Gulf coast, due to the sea breeze front. And, isolated diurnal showers and thunderstorms will be fairly likely through the weekend over portions of western and northern New Mexico and south central Colorado, mainly due daytime heating and orographic lift near the mountains. Mean areal precipitation will be minimal. On Sunday and into next week, the ridge of high pressure is forecast to shrink and shift slightly to the west as a couple of short wave troughs push eastward from the northwestern U.S. This shift will allow the rain chances to increase across parts of our region. The most favored area for rain would be over southeastern Texas and southern Louisiana. An easterly wave of low pressure is forecast to move along the Gulf coast Monday and Tuesday. This, along with some moisture advection and the sea breeze front could result in some scattered showers and thunderstorms for this portion of the WGRFC area, especially along and near the Gulf coast. The rain chances will also continue over parts of New Mexico and Colorado due to the monsoon. But elsewhere over Texas, very warm and dry weather will persist into mid-week. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Saturday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 of an inch are forecast for the San Juan Mountains in the upper Rio Grande in south central Colorado and northern New Mexico. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast for the northwest half of New Mexico, most of Colorado, deep south Texas, the eastern quarter of Texas and Louisiana. For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch are forecast for the San Juan Mountains in the upper Rio Grande in south central Colorado and north central New Mexico. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast for the northwest two thirds of New Mexico, most of Colorado, the eastern quarter of Texas and Louisiana. For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch are forecast for portions of southern Colorado into northeast New Mexico, as well as over the southeast quarter of Texas into most of Louisiana. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast for most of New Mexico, most of Colorado, the southeastern third of Texas and Louisiana. For Monday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for the northern and western New Mexico into southern Colorado, as well as over the middle and upper Texas Gulf coast into southern Louisiana. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast for most of the remaining areas within the WGRFC area of responsibility. Soils continue to dry out across Texas due to the warm temperatures and a lack of significant rainfall. The U.S. Drought Monitor has categorized Texas as 13% abnormally dry, with almost 2% in moderate or greater drought. Over New Mexico, 77% of the state is abnormally dry, and 16% remains in the moderate drought category. The lack of widespread rainfall this month combined with limited rainfall forecast over the next five days will lead to continued drying in most areas through this forecast period. No significant runoff is expected. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...Trinity Basin... ...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts... Above normal flows continue on the Elm Fork of the Trinity River near Carrollton (CART2). These elevated flows will continue for at least the next 24 hours as flood pools are evacuated from upstream reservoirs. Lake Lewisville and Lake Grapevine have decreased their releases today, so CART2 will drop to near action stage this weekend. ...Brazos Basin... ...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts... Above normal flows continue along the lower Brazos River at Richmond (RMOT2). The elevated flows are expected to continue through the weekend. ...Remainder of WGRFC Basins... Several basins across eastern portions of the WGRFC area remain saturated. Higher than normal seasonal flows are occurring in the eastern half of the state as a result. However, no significant rain is expected over the next 5 days, so no significant river responses are expected over this time frame. Daily convective activity can cause minor rises anywhere in the forecast area, but most areas have little chance of seeing any convective activity over the next couple of days. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide STORY $$