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734 AGUS74 KFWR 201559 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1059 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014 VALID OCTOBER 20 THROUGH OCTOBER 25 ...THE RIO GRANDE BASIN WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MIDWEEK... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... An upper level low is currently located over northeastern Sonora, Mexico this Monday morning. Another upper level storm is located off the Oregon coast. Both features will provide forcing for precipitation over the western portion of the WGRFC area of responsibility over the next few days. Onshore flow from the Gulf of Mexico will also keep a chance for precipitation on the Lower Texas Gulf Coast and Deep South Texas through this period. Over the next 36 hours the more southerly upper level disturbance is expected to produce showers and thunderstorms along the Rio Grande from El Paso to Lake Amistad, and in the Trans Pecos. On Wednesday and Thursday the northern trough is expected to overtake and absorb the southern disturbance, and lead to a chance for showers and thunderstorms across eastern New Mexico and western Texas. Thursday and Friday look mostly dry for the WGRFC area of responsibility as an upper level ridge builds from the west. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Tuesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are forecast for the Rio Grande from El Paso to Lake Amistad and for the Trans Pecos. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for Deep South Texas and for most of New Mexico. For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inch are forecast for portions of southern New Mexico and the Trans Pecos. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for southwestern Colorado, northern New Mexico, and Deep South Texas. For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inch are forecast for northwestern Texas and for portions of the Trans Pecos. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for eastern New Mexico, North Texas, and the rest of the Trans Pecos. For Thursday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. Moderate or worse drought conditions continue to be observed over parts of New Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about half the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (49%) and 10% has extreme to exceptional drought. In New Mexico, nearly two thirds of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (63%) and 8% has extreme to exceptional drought. The forecasted rainfall is expected to greatly alleviate drought concerns for the high category drought areas in Central Texas. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...WGRFC Basins... All WGRFC river forecast points are at or below bankfull conditions. Overnight rainfall above Candelaria (CDET2) caused a rapid rise to flood stage. Rainfall forecasted in the next five days will not cause mainstem river flooding in the WGRFC area. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org PHILPOTT $$


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