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462 AGUS74 KFWR 151555 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1055 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014 VALID APRIL 15 THROUGH APRIL 20 ...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR A FEW DAYS, BUT RAIN IS FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... A large upper level system has been moving across the WGRFC area the past 24 hours. As this low passed it pushed a very strong cold front through Texas. The combination of the front, atmospheric moisture and the low pressure system produced showers and thunderstorms over primarily south central and southeastern Texas into western Louisiana. The heaviest rain fell in a narrow band and was just over 2 inches in spots, especially in the Houston area. Lighter precipitation also fell across parts of Colorado, eastern New Mexico and the Texas panhandle. This morning, all the precipitation has moved out of the WGRFC area as the trough of low pressure moves east. Very cool temperatures and drier air now cover the WGRFC area as a ridge of high pressure moves into the region. The ridge will flatten by Wednesday but not before it brings the area dry weather today into Wednesday. By Wednesday night an upper air disturbance is forecast to develop over the Colorado Rockies. This trough may produce precipitation across Colorado and northeast New Mexico. But as this disturbance moves across Kansas and Oklahoma Thursday most of the showers and thunderstorms will be to the north of the WGRFC area. Some rain may occur across extreme northern Texas but it will not be significant. On Friday a weak ridge of high pressure will bring mostly dry weather to the WGRFC area (except the far western portions). But by Friday night a new upper air disturbance will be moving through the Desert Southwest. Moisture will be increasing ahead of this disturbance, and rainfall will begin to develop across portions of New Mexico and west Texas. Then as the disturbance moves eastward the rain is forecast to become fairly widespread on Saturday across Texas. The rain should linger into Sunday morning over the northeast third of Texas and Louisiana. At this time only light to moderate amounts of rainfall are expected from the storm this weekend. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Wednesday morning, no significant Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Wednesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for portions of southern Colorado, with heavier amounts forecast just east of the WGRFC area. For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for portions of southern Colorado, northeast New Mexico, and extreme northeast Texas. For Friday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for portions of the northwest two thirds of Texas and southeast New Mexico. MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast for the extreme northern New Mexico and southern Colorado. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast over the remainder of the WGRFC area. The drought conditions have been deteriorating over the last several weeks over most of the region. Almost all of New Mexico and 85% of Texas remain in some level of drought category. In addition, 28% of Texas and 25% of New Mexico are in extreme drought. Statewide, in Texas, reservoirs are, on average, are around 65% full. This is below average for this time of year, with average being about 80% full. There is considerable variability across the state, with many of the reservoirs in the western half of the state below 50% full. Significant rainfall is not forecast the next 5 days, therefore no runoff is anticipated. Mainstem river flooding is not expected. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...Sabine Basin... ...Minor Flooding... Toledo Bend Reservoir continues 24/7 full power generation given increased inflows from recent rainfall. Downstream, flows have increased at Deweyville (DWYT2) and are expected to remain slightly above minor flood stage through April 19. 2 units are to be taken offline at 4PM today. ...Rio Grande Basin... ...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts... Amistad increased releases late last week through power generation that is generating elevated flows along the mainstem from Amistad to Falcon Lake. No significant impacts expected, although the river at Columbia Bridge (CBBT2) is above a warning level for pumps and livestock in the area. The duration of Amistad releases unknown at this time. ...Remainder of WGRFC Basins... No significant rainfall is expected in the next few days in the WGRFC area. No significant impacts along the mainstems expected. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org STORY $$


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