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115 AGUS74 KFWR 291609 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1108 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015 VALID JUNE 29 THROUGH JULY 4 ...A MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN IS RETURNING TO THE WGRFC AREA THE NEXT 5 DAYS WITH NO WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... The WGRFC area remains dry and mild this morning and should continue through the afternoon. A few showers and thunderstorms have developed this morning along the Red River. Also another small area of showers and thunderstorms have developed along the coastal bend. Rainfall amounts are averaging less than 0.50 inch per hour with this activity. No additional significant flooding is expected the next 24 hours. A ridge of high pressure is forecast to remain over Utah and Nevada through this week. This pattern will allow a short wave trough move southeastward late today into tomorrow across mainly northeast and east central Texas. This will bring a slight chance for showers or thunderstorms, but since the system will be weaker than the previous one, widespread rainfall is not expected. By Wednesday into Thursday the ridge to our west will broaden out and dominate much of Texas, thus most of the region will have dry weather. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue along and near the Gulf coast due to land and sea interactions tomorrow through Friday. Also, an area of low pressure is forecast over deep south Texas on Thursday as well, but significant rainfall is not expected at this time. Elsewhere, diurnal thunderstorms should persist each afternoon over parts of New Mexico and Colorado Wednesday through Friday. While only light rain is forecast for the middle and latter parts of the week, significant river flooding is expected to continue for many more days on some of the Texas rivers due to past rainfall events. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Tuesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for portions of southeast Texas. For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for portions of Deep South Texas and northern Mexico. For Wednesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Thursday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of up to 1.00 inch are forecast for portions of southern Colorado and northern New Mexico. Lesser amounts are forecast for portions of Deep South Texas. Many lakes, especially over the northeastern half of Texas, are full and are releasing water according to regulation rules and schedules. Soil moisture remains high across much of Texas from rainfall over the past two months. Rainfall over the next five days in primarily southeastern Texas may be enough to cause some runoff locally, but significant, widespread runoff is not expected. Rainfall intensities and potential runoff will be monitored. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...Guadalupe Basin... ...Moderate Flooding... Releases at Canyon Lake have a few sites downstream on the Guadalupe River elevated above action stage. Downstream, Bloomington (DUPT2) will continue to recede very slowly towards minor flood levels in a few days. ...Trinity Basin... ...Moderate Flooding... Widespread flooding continues along the Trinity River mainstem. Flood stages will continue for some time as travel time from Dallas to Lake Livingston averages about 2 weeks. Lake Livingston has been able to reduce their releases a little over the last few days as the lake returns to its normal elevation. Trinidad (TDDT2) and Liberty (LBYT2) are the two locations still affected by moderate flooding. ...Neches Basin... ...Minor Flooding... Minor flooding continues along the Neches River basin as the very slow moving water works its way downstream. The slow nature of the Neches River will keep the river at high flows at many locations for several weeks even though the rains have temporarily ended. There is still significant flood water in Sam Rayburn Reservoir which is above the flood pool; therefore releases will continue for several weeks. ...Sabine Basin... ...Minor Flooding... Minor flooding continues at Mineola (MLAT2) and Deweyville (DWYT2). Toledo Bend is continuing to slowly decrease their releases. ...Brazos Basin... ...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts... All locations along the river are now below minor flood levels. Flows along the river system will remain well above normal because of the releases from the upstream lakes ...Remainder of WGRFC Basins... Soils remain wetter than normal over much of the WGRFC area. Higher than normal flows should be the norm throughout the area. New Mexico is expected to continue to get scattered storms in its central and eastern parts as upper level disturbances continue to pass over the area. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: National Precipitation Analysis: The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: The US Drought Assessment: The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: MCCANTS $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.