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358 AGUS74 KFWR 261559 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 802 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016 VALID MAY 26 THROUGH MAY 31 ...ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES INTO EARLY WEEKEND... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... An upper level pattern will continue to aid in the development of showers and thunderstorms today into the beginning of the Memorial Day Holiday Weekend. Low level moisture and instability remains plentiful with shower and thunderstorm development and locally heavy rainfall expected across much of WGRFC`s area. Daytime heating and the dry line will provide the lift along with outflow boundaries from thunderstorms. Localized flooding rainfall is forecast for today, Friday and into the early weekend for Central and Eastern Texas. The heaviest of the rainfall will clear out of the area by Saturday with another system setting up to bring more rain into WGRFC`s area later in the weekend into early next week. As mentioned before, it will rain over the WGRFC area during the next 5 days. Some areas in western Texas will receive little to no rain until later on Sunday into Monday. Other areas could see pockets of very heavy rainfall, especially in and near the strongest thunderstorms. Localized high intensity rainfall is likely on Thursday,Friday and into the early weekend. There is a slight lull until another disturbance brings rain back into the area later on Sunday into Monday. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Friday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 1 to 2 inches are forecast for Central Texas. MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for the remainder of central and eastern Texas. For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 1 to 2 inches are forecast for east northeast Texas and southwest into Central Texas. Highest amounts are along the OK-AR borders. For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for South and far southeastern Texas along the LA border. For Sunday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.50 to 2.0 inch are forecast for most of Texas, especially over North and West Texas. MAP amounts of around 0.25 inch are forecast for most of eastern New Mexico. Soils continue to be moist across the majority Texas, especially the eastern half. 3% of Texas is categorized as abnormally dry with 97% of Texas now categorized as drought free. Over New Mexico, 83% of the state is abnormally dry, and 37% remains in the moderate drought category. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...Guadalupe Basin... ...Moderate Flooding... Victoria (VICT2) and Bloomington (DUPT2) are nearing crest in moderate flood levels due to rainfall last week. Elsewhere, flood levels have crested and have begun falling. Canyon Lake is well within its flood pool and has been evacuating flood storage through releases. This has resulted in higher, sustained flows downstream on the mainstem from Sattler to Gonzales. However, there are plans to reduce releases beginning Thursday evening through the weekend for Memorial Day weekend activities, but will likely resume elevated releases early next week. ...Trinity Basin... ...Minor Flooding... Rainfall recently fell over a small area of the upper Trinity River Basin. Higher than normal flows are occurring at a few locations with minor flooding present on the West Fork Trinity at Boyd (BOYT2). Releases from Corps of Engineers flood control reservoirs are keeping the Elm Fork Trinity at higher than normal levels. Higher than normal flows are also occurring on the lower Trinity due to releases from Lake Livingston. ...Sabine Basin... ...Minor Flooding... Toledo Bend Reservoir has started decreasing their releases, and this should continue the next several days. The Sabine River at Deweyville (DWYT2) is expected to remain in minor flood level through the weekend. Additional heavy rainfall over the next 5 days, may cause higher rises. ...Neches Basin... ...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts... Higher than normal flow are expected to continue for areas below Town Bluff the remainder of the week. ...Brazos Basin... ...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts... Higher than normal flows are occurring on portions of the Brazos and associated tributaries due to recent rainfall and releases from upstream flood control reservoirs. ...Remainder of WGRFC Basins... Soils remain wet over most of the eastern half of the WGRFC forecast area. Additional rainfall is expected later this week, which could lead to more river flooding on basins already impacted. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 1 to 2 inches are forecast for east northeast Texas and southwest into Central Texas. Highest amounts are along the OK-AR borders. For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for South and far southeastern Texas along the LA border. For Sunday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.50 to 2.0 inch are forecast for most of Texas, especially over North and West Texas. MAP amounts of around 0.25 inch are forecast for most of eastern New Mexico. Soils continue to be moist across the majority Texas, especially the eastern half. 3% of Texas is categorized as abnormally dry with 97% of Texas now categorized as drought free. Over New Mexico, 83% of the state is abnormally dry, and 40% remains in the moderate drought category. The rainfall the next 5 days will not be heavy enough for widespread significant runoff. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide AUSTIN-SMITH $$


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