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108 AGUS74 KFWR 241530 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1029 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014 VALID AUGUST 24 THROUGH AUGUST 29 ...PRECIPITATION WILL BE MINIMAL OVER TEXAS UNTIL MIDWEEK WHILE MONSOON ACTIVITY CONTINUES OVER NEW MEXICO... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... High pressure will continue to dominate the WGRFC area for the next couple of days before drifting north into the western Ohio valley. This will keep conditions very warm and dry for most of Texas into Tuesday morning. Conditions are expected to quickly change late Monday as an inverted upper level trough over the Gulf pushes west into the upper Texas coast. This system will bring a surge of deep tropical moisture into southeast Texas and remain through the forecast period. Unsettled weather will be prevalent with scattered showers and thunderstorms likely Tuesday through Saturday. Along with this activity, Hurricane Marie now in the Pacific south of Baja California will begin to have some influence in helping to draw subtropical moisture into the New Mexico monsoonal activity midweek. With the evolution of a longwave trough over the western U.S. there could be enhanced chances for rainfall in Texas as a cold front pushes into the area Thursday with plenty of atmospheric moisture is in place. The models disagree in timing so there is still uncertainty about the effects on rainfall. Monsoonal rainfall activity is expected to continue over portions of New Mexico as the upper low from California moves northeastward. At this time, no significant rainfall is expected for the next 4 days. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Monday morning, no significant Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch are forecast for the western half of New Mexico with the heavier amounts over the southwestern mountains and above Elephant Butte Reservoir. For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch are forecast for the western half on New Mexico as monsoonl activity continues. For Wednesday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. Drought persists over Texas and New Mexico. Statewide, New Mexico has no areas of exceptional drought while less than 3% of Texas remains in exceptional drought. Severe drought conditions are impacting 40% of New Mexico and 34% of Texas. The monsoonal rains in New Mexico continue to ease the drought conditions in many areas of the state. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...WGRFC Basins... River conditions across the WGRFC area remain near or below seasonal flows. No additional flooding is forecasted to occur at this time. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org CAZIER $$


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