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Hydro-Meteorological Discussion

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762 AGUS74 KFWR 221659 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1059 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014 VALID DECEMBER 22 THROUGH DECEMBER 27 ...LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE WGRFC AREA... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... An upper level trough is currently deepening across Texas this morning. A second trough is forecast to begin building on the back side of the current trough over New Mexico late Monday. This system is expected to deepen further as it moves eastward across Texas Tuesday into Wednesday. With this system, light rainfall with snowfall at higher elevations are possible across the WGRFC area. By Thursday, this upper level system is expected to move east of the WGRFC area bringing a drier weather pattern to the region. On Friday, another upper level system is forecast to develop over New Mexico and begin moving across the WGRFC area. Showers are possible Friday and Saturday, mainly over the Texas Gulf Coast in southeast Texas. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Tuesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast over the upper Rio Grande River Basin located in southwestern Colorado. For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast over far southeast Texas and southwestern Louisiana. For Wednesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Thursday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast over the upper Rio Grande River Basin located in southwestern Colorado. Moderate or worse drought conditions continue to be observed over parts of New Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about half the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (44%) and 10% has extreme to exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, nearly two thirds of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (65%) and 4% has extreme to exceptional drought conditions. Soils are generally dry enough such that forecast rainfall will generate mostly minor runoff. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...Neches Basin... ...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts... Pine Island Bayou and other coastal tributaries remain active as they recover from recent rainfall. No flooding is expected at this time, but higher flows will continue as recovery to baseflow will take some time. These streams tend to linger at higher levels after rain events this time of year. ...Remainder of WGRFC Basins... With several days before the next storm system moves into the region, there should be enough time for the smaller river systems that saw small rises to recover back to base flow before more rainfall arrives. No flooding is expected through the forecast period. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: National Precipitation Analysis: The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: The US Drought Assessment: The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: SHULTZ $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.