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695 AGUS74 KFWR 261637 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1137 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016 VALID APRIL 26 THROUGH MAY 1 ...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... The active weather pattern continues for WGRFC`s area with periods of significant rainfall into the upcoming weekend. There is sufficient moisture and instability for the development of showers and thunderstorms along a dry line in Texas, this afternoon into tonight. This convective activity will move eastward across Texas through tomorrow morning. The active weather pattern will continue, with increasing chances of significant rain, beginning on Friday into Saturday as an upper low deepens over the Four Corners and lifts northeast. This will help bring another round of severe storms and locally heavy rainfall through the weekend...with the heavier rainfall expected Saturday. Models show this rainfall pattern persisting into Tuesday. Rainfall totals over much of Texas exceed normal averages for the past 15-30 days. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Wednesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to two inches are forecast for the northeastern part of Texas extending as far south as Houston. For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch are forecast for far east Texas including portions of southeast Texas. For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to one inch are forecast for north and far east Texas including the DFW metroplex. For Friday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to five inches are forecast...maximum for the ARK-LA-TEX area. Soil moisture had decreased during recent weeks, but the abundant rain once again has moistened the soils across a good part of the state. Texas is now categorized as being 19% abnormally dry, with 5% in the moderate drought category. These dry areas are over the Texas panhandle and the far western portions of the state, with the remainder of the state free of drought. Over New Mexico, virtually the entire state is categorized as being abnormally dry, and 44% is in moderate drought. The rainfall in the forecast over the next 5 days will produce additional runoff over many portions of Texas. Significant runoff should be expected over those areas with saturated soils. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...San Bernard Basin... ...Moderate Flooding... The San Bernard river is slowly receding. Moderate flooding will continue for another 12 to 24 hours near Boling (BOLT2) and Sweeny (SWYT2). Additional rainfall coming mid-week could cause additional rises. ...Trinity Basin... ...Moderate Flooding... The Trinity River system has slowly recovered from the last rainfall event through last week, but several locations are still above flood stage and several over moderate flood level (TDDT2), (LOLT2). The uppermost portion of the river, above Fort Worth, is still flowing well above normal with all the water supply lakes passing inflows to maintain their conservation pools. That water is keeping the mainstem of the West Fork of the Trinity well above normal all the way to Dallas, which controls the release plans for most of the flood control projects within the DFW metroplex. Until the water from upstream decreases, the DFW lakes are limited on flood pool evacuations, but are releasing as much as possible given the next rain event expected tonight and again over the weekend. With a week of unsettled, potentially heavy rainfall expected later this week, we will be closely watching this area for additional flooding concerns. ...Brazos Basin... ...Moderate Flooding... The Brazos River system is well above normal with regards to soil moisture and lake storage. With another period of unsettled rainy days coming up starting mid week, the system is primed for another round of minor to moderate flooding. Some releases are being made from the flood control reservoirs, but with more rainfall coming starting today, these may be reduced in the near future. We will be able to better pinpoint which areas are at higher risk by the afternoon forecast update. Currently, moderate flooding is limited to the lowest monitored mainstem point (ROST2) and will continue for another few days as the river slowly recedes. It will take at least several days for any rainfall to have an impact on the lower reaches of the river. ...Guadalupe Basin... ...Minor Flooding... The Guadalupe mainstem continues to fall as the Flood Wave from earlier rains makes its way downstream. The Guadalupe at Victoria (VICT2) has fallen below minor flood levels. The mainstem at Bloomington (DUPT2) is still falling but is still at minor flood levels. ...Neches Basin... ...Minor Flooding... Heavy rainfall last week generated widespread minor flooding in the Neches and Angelina River basins. This flooding continues, but we are slowly recovering. Additional rainfall expected later this week is expected to generate a new round of higher flooding late in the week. ...Sabine Basin... ...Minor Flooding... Lakes are trying to lower their levels in attempts to make room for potential flooding coming so elevated flows are mainly due to reservoir releases. Upstream several sites are elevated as Lake Fork and Lake Tawakoni release and downstream Toledo Bend releases will push Deweyville into flood stage. ...Colorado Basin... ...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts... Lake Travis is releasing to reduce flood storage now that the lower end of the river system has dropped below flood criteria. Local impacts are still possible and with more rain expected this week, new rises are likely. ...San Jacinto Basin... A slow recession will continue for the San Jacinto River system. Addicks and Barker Reservoirs have started their controlled releases, with the result that Buffalo Bayou will flow higher than usual, but below criteria, for the foreseeable future. With several days of unsettled rainy weather ahead this week, this region is being closely watched for additional flood rises. ...Remainder of WGRFC Basins... Unsettled weather is in the forecast for the next 5 days and beyond. Location and amounts of rainfall will be critical in determining flood potential. Heaviest rainfall is expected Friday and over the weekend, however locally heavy rainfall is also expected tonight into Wednesday. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide AUSTIN-SMITH $$