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AGUS74 KFWR 151525
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1025 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

                    VALID JUNE 15 THROUGH JUNE 20

...PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...

                    ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
Widespread showers with isolated thunderstorms continue to bring
needed precipitation to the WGRFC area (and in some cases, too much
precipitation).  Tapping into the abundant tropical moisture, a weak
upper level low over South Texas help trigger efficient
thunderstorms, with some precipitation estimates exceeding 15 inches
of rainfall during a 24 hour period around Eagle Pass.  This upper
level low is caught in an axis between high pressure over the
central Gulf Coast and a building ridge over the Rockies.  This low
should get caught in the zonal flow aloft, eventually weakening and
sliding east through the remainder of the weekend.  Until then, more
widespread precipitation is expected.

As the ridge over the Rockies exerts its influence on the area,
showers and thunderstorms will decrease in coverage as a
northwesterly flow sets up aloft.  However, organized thunderstorm
complexes should form in Colorado Monday night and again Tuesday
night, moving generally southeast toward North and East Texas.

For New Mexico and Far West Texas, monsoonal convection should
continue through the period.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Sunday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for Central Texas.  Lighter
MAP amounts are forecast for the remainder of the WGRFC area.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are
forecast for North and Northwest Texas.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are
forecast for North Texas.  Lighter MAP amounts are forecast for the
remainder of the northern half of Texas and for Eastern New Mexico.

For Tuesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 or less are
forecast for most of Texas and for Eastern New Mexico.

The ongoing drought remains entrenched across a large part of the
WGRFC area.  About 60 percent of Texas remains in severe drought, or
worse, with 15 percent classified as exceptional drought. In
New Mexico, drought conditions are even more widespread, with 98
percent of the state in severe drought, or worse, with nearly 45
percent classified as exceptional drought.  Some runoff is possible
in the stronger thunderstorms.  However, no widespread significant
runoff is expected the next five days across the WGRFC area.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Rio Grande Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Additional rainfall of 8-10 inches, fell overnight across portions of
the lower Rio Grande near Eagle Pass. Essentially, this caused Eagle
Pass (EPPT2) to rise to near moderate flooding this morning.
Currently, the river has since crested and will continue falling.
However, the flow from Eagle Pass (EPPT2) will combine with the flow
from Rio Escondido later today, and eventually cause Columbia Bridge
(CBBT2) and Laredo (LDOT2) to rise to moderate flooding on tomorrow.
Based on the current rainfall forecast, additional rainfall is
possible over this area later tonight, however the most significant
activity will likely move northward.

...Nueces Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Rainfall amounts of 5-6 inches fell across the upper portions of the
Nueces river system overnight. This will cause some significant
rises at Asherton (ASRT2) and Cotulla (COTT2) later this week. The
routed water from upstream of these points, is causing most of the
significant rises in addition to the heavy rainfall that fell
overnight. Additional significant rainfall is also possible across
this area later tonight.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Elsewhere, near or below normal river flows are occurring for the
WGRFC basins. Therefore, no significant flooding is expected.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
 http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop 

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
 http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

WALLER


$$