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668 AGUS74 KFWR 151525 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1025 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013 VALID JUNE 15 THROUGH JUNE 20 ...PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... Widespread showers with isolated thunderstorms continue to bring needed precipitation to the WGRFC area (and in some cases, too much precipitation). Tapping into the abundant tropical moisture, a weak upper level low over South Texas help trigger efficient thunderstorms, with some precipitation estimates exceeding 15 inches of rainfall during a 24 hour period around Eagle Pass. This upper level low is caught in an axis between high pressure over the central Gulf Coast and a building ridge over the Rockies. This low should get caught in the zonal flow aloft, eventually weakening and sliding east through the remainder of the weekend. Until then, more widespread precipitation is expected. As the ridge over the Rockies exerts its influence on the area, showers and thunderstorms will decrease in coverage as a northwesterly flow sets up aloft. However, organized thunderstorm complexes should form in Colorado Monday night and again Tuesday night, moving generally southeast toward North and East Texas. For New Mexico and Far West Texas, monsoonal convection should continue through the period. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Sunday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for Central Texas. Lighter MAP amounts are forecast for the remainder of the WGRFC area. For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for North and Northwest Texas. For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for North Texas. Lighter MAP amounts are forecast for the remainder of the northern half of Texas and for Eastern New Mexico. For Tuesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 or less are forecast for most of Texas and for Eastern New Mexico. The ongoing drought remains entrenched across a large part of the WGRFC area. About 60 percent of Texas remains in severe drought, or worse, with 15 percent classified as exceptional drought. In New Mexico, drought conditions are even more widespread, with 98 percent of the state in severe drought, or worse, with nearly 45 percent classified as exceptional drought. Some runoff is possible in the stronger thunderstorms. However, no widespread significant runoff is expected the next five days across the WGRFC area. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...Rio Grande Basin... ...Moderate Flooding... Additional rainfall of 8-10 inches, fell overnight across portions of the lower Rio Grande near Eagle Pass. Essentially, this caused Eagle Pass (EPPT2) to rise to near moderate flooding this morning. Currently, the river has since crested and will continue falling. However, the flow from Eagle Pass (EPPT2) will combine with the flow from Rio Escondido later today, and eventually cause Columbia Bridge (CBBT2) and Laredo (LDOT2) to rise to moderate flooding on tomorrow. Based on the current rainfall forecast, additional rainfall is possible over this area later tonight, however the most significant activity will likely move northward. ...Nueces Basin... ...Moderate Flooding... Rainfall amounts of 5-6 inches fell across the upper portions of the Nueces river system overnight. This will cause some significant rises at Asherton (ASRT2) and Cotulla (COTT2) later this week. The routed water from upstream of these points, is causing most of the significant rises in addition to the heavy rainfall that fell overnight. Additional significant rainfall is also possible across this area later tonight. ...Remainder of WGRFC Basins... Elsewhere, near or below normal river flows are occurring for the WGRFC basins. Therefore, no significant flooding is expected. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought WALLER $$