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482 AGUS74 KFWR 051708 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1108 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014 VALID MARCH 5 THROUGH MARCH 10 ...PRECIPITATION CONTINUES IN EAST AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... Another upper level disturbance has dropped into the Texas Panhandle and will move into the Arklatex area by tonight. As Gulf moisture is drawn into the path of this system more rainfall is anticipated in the northen and eastern portions of WGRFC forecast area. This system will pass quickly to the east and exit the area late tonight. The outlook for the weekend is for the next upper level low from the Pacific Northwest to continue to deepen as it moves southeast into the Four Corners area by late Friday. This system should develop into a closed low to our west and be the source of much needed precipitation in New Mexico and Texas from Friday through the weekend. This slow moving system is expected to produce much needed widespread precipitation in both states. The models show the lower Rio Grande valley from Presidio southeast along the mainstem to Brownsville receiving moderate amounts of precipitation during the weekend through Monday morning. Forecast models indicate the potential for additional precipitation into the middle of next week beyond our forecast period ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Thursday morning, no significant Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch are forecast for the upper Rio Grande in south central Colorado. For Saturday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1.50 inches are forecast for south Texas including the Rio Grande valley from Presidio to Brownsville. Almost all of New Mexico and 93% of Texas remain in some level of drought category. In addition, 9% of Texas and 15% of New Mexico are in extreme drought. The upper Rio Grande in south central Colorado is in the abnormally dry category. Statewide, in Texas, reservoirs are on average at 64% full. This is well below the median average reservoir storage at this time of year, of about 80% full. There is considerable variability across the state, with many of the reservoirs in the western half of the state below 50% full. Significant improvement in the drought is not expected in the short term for the WGRFC area due to forecast precipitation totals of generally less than one inch over the next five days. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...WGRFC Basins... Soil moisture levels remain elevated in east Texas especially along the Gulf Coast area. Rainfall forecasts do not line up to impact these areas greatly; therefore, no significant flooding is forecast in the next 5 days. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org CAZIER $$