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469 AGUS74 KFWR 261711 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1110 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015 VALID JANUARY 26 THROUGH JANUARY 31 ...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE WGRFC AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BUT RAIN ARRIVES BY THE END OF THE WEEK... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... A ridge of high pressure was centered over Utah this morning. Meanwhile, a low pressure system was located over the eastern Pacific Ocean well west of Baja California. The ridge has produced a strong, dry northerly flow of air over most of the WGRFC area. Therefore, precipitation-free conditions have been observed over most of the WGRFC area, and the mild and dry weather should continue through tonight as this flow persists. Well out ahead of the eastern Pacific low, there has been some light precipitation over northern Mexico the past 48 hours, and some of this rain will continue through tonight from Chihuahua westward and may move into parts of southwestern New Mexico. The western U.S. ridge of high pressure will move eastward and will extend from Texas northward to Kansas by Tuesday evening. As a result, a dry westerly air flow will develop and Texas will continue to be free of precipitation. Meanwhile, later tonight and Tuesday the low pressure system in the Pacific will move northward into the western states. This could result in some light precipitation just west of the WGRFC area of responsibility. Thereafter, this low will weaken and move eastward across the central Rockies and the central plains Wednesday. This disturbance will pass too far to the north to bring Texas any precipitation so the dry weather will continue through Wednesday night. By Thursday a ridge of high pressure will be positioned over Mexico while yet another Pacific storm system moves east into California. The combination of these systems will push higher amounts of moisture from the Pacific into the western parts of the WGRFC area. Since the low over California will be a very slow moving system into Saturday, light precipitation will develop over southern Colorado, New Mexico and far west Texas by Thursday night into Friday. Then as the low gets a bit further east into Arizona the low will likely produce widespread light rain over the southwest half of Texas as well by Saturday morning. Moderate amounts of rainfall will be possible over southwest New Mexico from this storm system on Friday. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Tuesday morning, no significant Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over the southwest quarter of New Mexico into far west Texas. For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Wednesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over parts of southern Colorado and northern New Mexico For Thursday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch or more are forecast over the southwestern third of New Mexico into far west Texas. The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 1.00 inch, are forecast over far southwestern New Mexico. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over parts of southern Colorado, most of New Mexico, as well as over the southwest half of Texas. Moderate or worse drought conditions continue across parts of New Mexico and Texas. In Texas, almost half the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (41%), and 11% has extreme to exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, nearly two thirds of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (65%), and 4% has extreme to exceptional drought conditions. Outside of east and southeast Texas, soils are generally dry. The current precipitation forecast the next five days will not be heavy enough to produce new or additional runoff. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...Trinity Basin... ...Minor Flooding... The Trinity River at Liberty has continued to rise from upstream runoff and should crest slightly above action stage this evening. The Trinity River near Moss Bluff (MBFT2) has continued to rise and should reach its peak slightly above minor flood stage in a day or so. ...Neches Basin... ...Minor Flooding... Minor flooding is occurring on the Neches River near Diboll (DIBT2). The Angelina River near Lufkin (LUFT2) is also expected to remain in minor criteria for a few days. Attoyac Bayou near Chireno (ATBT2) has risen above minor flood levels and is expected remain around 16 feet for another 36-48 hours. Pine Island near Sour Lake (SOLT2) is expected to remain slightly above action stage criteria over the next few days. ...Sabine Basin... ...Minor Flooding... The Sabine River at Deweyville (DWYT2) remains steady above minor criteria at this time based on reservoir releases upstream. ...Brazos Basin... ...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts... The Middle Yegua creek near Dime Box (DMYT2) is cresting slightly below minor flood criteria now. The Navasota River at Old Spanish Rd. near Normangee (NGET2) is above action stage criteria and has crested below 14 feet. The Brazos River near Hempstead (HPDT2) has crested slightly below 30 feet. The Brazos River downstream at Richmond (RMOT2) is above action stage now. The crest is forecast to be below 26 feet by Monday afternoon. ...Remainder of WGRFC Basins... All other forecast locations are at or near seasonal flows with no additional flooding expected over the next 5 days. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org STORY $$