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659 AGUS74 KFWR 261623 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1122 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015 VALID MARCH 26 THROUGH MARCH 31 ...RAIN CHANCES WILL END LATER TODAY, THEN DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND OVER THE WGRFC AREA... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... A vigorous upper level disturbance is moving southeastward across Oklahoma and Texas this morning. This storm pushed a strong surface cold front through most of Texas the past 24 hours, and this front is approaching the Gulf coast now. Some showers and thunderstorms developed along and ahead of this front. Locally heavy rain fell north of the WGRFC area over Oklahoma and Arkansas. But due to the speed of this storm system the rainfall amounts in Texas were all under 0.75 of an inch. By this evening the upper trough and cold front will move out of the WGRFC area and the rainfall will move east out of the region. By Friday a large ridge of high pressure is forecast to build over the western third of the U.S. This ridge will move slowly eastward and will be located over western Texas by Monday morning. This will keep the WGRFC area dry from this evening through the weekend. The ridge should begin to weaken on Monday. This will allow a weak cold front to approach our region from the north, and this front may produce a few showers over northeast Texas. Meanwhile, a new storm is forecast to form over Baja California. This storm is forecast to move eastward, and it will bring another chance for rain to parts of New Mexico, southern Colorado, and southwest Texas later Monday into Tuesday morning. A better chance for showers and thunderstorms exists for Texas just beyond this five-day forecast period. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Friday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for extreme southeast Texas into southern Louisiana, and near the Rio Grande from Brownsville into northeast Mexico. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over the southeast third of Texas and Louisiana. For Friday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Saturday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Sunday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch are forecast over extreme northeast Texas, and south of the Rio Grande in northeast Mexico. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over northern New Mexico and southern Colorado, over the northeast third of Texas into northern Louisiana, and along the lower Rio Grande from south of Midland through Del Rio to Brownsville. Moderate or worse drought conditions continue across parts of New Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about a third of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (36%), and about 14% has extreme to exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, about two thirds of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (62%). Lake levels in these extreme drought areas are at or near historical lows for this time of year. Recent precipitation events have brought some drought relief, with no drought remaining over deep south, east central and southeast Texas into western Louisiana. The rainfall which is forecast the next five days over the WGRFC area will not be heavy enough to create new or additional runoff. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...Guadalupe Basin... ...Moderate Flooding... Routed water is forecast to keep Bloomington (DUPT2) above moderate flood level for a few more days. Victoria (VICT2) is also above bankfull levels but continues to fall. ...Sabine Basin... ...Moderate Flooding... Most of the Sabine River mainstem from Mineola (MLAT2) downstream to Logansport (LPTL1) continues within minor flood levels. At Toledo Bend Reservoir, pool elevations continue to slowly fall back toward conservation as releases are holding at 35,000 CFS. Below the reservoir, these flows are generating moderate flood conditions downstream along the mainstem at Bon Wier (BWRT2) and Deweyville (DWYT2). ...San Bernard Basin... ...Minor Flooding... Higher flows occurred near East Bernard (EBBT2) is still above bankfull levels but receding. A secondary rise crested into minor flood stage near Boling (BOLT2). This reach of the river is expected to remain high over the next few days. Sweeny (SWYT2) will also fluctuate above action stage for several days. ...Neches Basin... ...Minor Flooding... Widespread minor flooding continues throughout the Neches and Angelina River mainstems and associated bayous. Although minor flood conditions will continue through this week, most have crested and are slowly receding. Sam Rayburn Reservoir has resumed limited generation that will allow flood storage to be slowly evacuated. Lake Steinhagen releases will continue to hold at 20,000 CFS until Sam Rayburn Lake is able to completely evacuate the flood pool, likely via generation. This process is expected to take several weeks. ...Trinity Basin... ...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts... The lower Trinity is still experiencing higher than normal flows due to recent rainfall. Bankfull flooding is still occurring at Liberty (LBYT2) and Moss Bluff (MBFT2) but are in recession with no significant rainfall in the forecast.. ...Brazos Basin... ...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts... The Navasota River near Normangee (NGET2) and the Brazos at Richmond (RMOT2) are still above bankfull and continue to fall. ...San Jacinto Basin... The west Fork San Jacinto River near Humble (HMMT2) has risen around bankfull and is expected to remain near bankfull stage for a few days. ...Remainder of WGRFC Basins... Soils are very wet over east and southeast Texas after the recent rainfall episode. Other basins remain relatively dry with flows remaining low. No significant rainfall is in the forecast for the next 5 days or so. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org STORY $$