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647 AGUS74 KFWR 201621 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1121 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014 VALID AUGUST 20 THROUGH AUGUST 25 ...PRECIPITATION IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVER TEXAS WHILE THE MONSOON CONTINUES OVER NEW MEXICO... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... A persistent upper air low pressure system is moving northeastward this morning and is located west of the DFW metroplex. This disturbance has brought periods of showers and thunderstorms to central and southwest Texas the past 3 days. The heaviest rainfall of over 4.00 inches was noted near Roosevelt TX the past 24 hours. This upper low is producing a few showers over extreme north Texas and southern Oklahoma this morning. This disturbance is forecast to drift over Oklahoma and will weaken today. Therefore, the rainfall over Texas will diminish. Additionally, thunderstorms developed along the seabreeze front over southeast Texas Tuesday afternoon, and this area of rain moved northward into the early evening. Some locally heavy rain of 2 to 4 inches was noted from these thunderstorms in and around the Beaumont TX area. An upper level ridge of high pressure is expected to slowly shift westward and strengthen over the northern Gulf of Mexico by Thursday. Meanwhile, a strong upper level system will be developing over southern California. The high will move over the lower Mississippi River valley through the week before drifting north to the western Ohio valley over the weekend. This will keep conditions very warm and dry for most of Texas into Monday morning. Elsewhere, monsoonal rainfall activity is forecast to continue over portions of New Mexico, especially by Friday and Saturday as the upper low from California moves northeastward. And the sea breeze will persist over the Gulf coast and southeast Texas, producing scattered thundershowers during the afternoon hours each day for the next 5 days. But no significant rainfall is expected. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Thursday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast for portions of far southwest Texas. MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for portions of southern Colorado, northwest and southern New Mexico, southwest Texas, as well as along the middle and upper Texas Gulf coast into southern Louisiana. For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast for portions of far southwest Texas. MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for portions of southwestern Colorado, northwest and extreme southern New Mexico, west Texas, and southeast Texas into southern Louisiana. For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast for portions of far west Texas, southern New Mexico, and southwestern Colorado. MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for most of Colorado, most of New Mexico, far west Texas, and areas along and near the upper Texas and Louisiana Gulf coast. For Saturday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast for portions of far west Texas into southern New Mexico. MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for most of Colorado and New Mexico, and far west Texas. Extreme to exceptional drought persists over parts of southwest Texas, as well as over the western parts of north Texas into the Texas Panhandle and northeast New Mexico. Statewide, New Mexico is out of exceptional drought while less than 3% of Texas remains in exceptional drought. Severe drought conditions are impacting 43% of New Mexico and 35% of Texas. The monsoonal rains in New Mexico have eased the drought conditions over the past couple weeks. In Texas, the drought has diminished over roughly the southeast quarter. No widespread significant rainfall is forecast this week through the weekend, therefore no significant runoff is expected. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...WGRFC Basins... River conditions across the WGRFC remain near or below seasonal flows. Localized thunderstorm complexes over the Hill Country in the last few days will add much needed water to the system, but no significant flooding is expected. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org STORY $$


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