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Hydro-Meteorological Discussion

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409 AGUS74 KFWR 281654 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1153 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015 VALID JUNE 28 THROUGH JULY 3 ...A MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN IS RETURNING TO THE WGRFC AREA THE NEXT 5 DAYS WITH NO WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... A ridge of high pressure continues to strengthen over Utah this morning. During the past 48 hours a cold front has moved southward across much of Texas. Showers and thunderstorms continued along and ahead of the front from central and east Texas into Louisiana Saturday afternoon and night. Rainfall amounts of generally less than one inch fell the past 24 hours, but reports of over 3 to 4 inches were received in the area around and near Houston, and in isolated areas of the Texas Hill country. The front is weakening now and the showers are shifting southward to the area near the Gulf coast this morning. Most of the WGRFC area should have dry conditions today. The only location which will continue to see scattered showers and thunderstorms is over New Mexico. An upper air disturbance will move southwestward through New Mexico and is expected to produce some thunderstorms. This rain should decrease after the passage of this trough late tonight. On Monday and continuing into much of this week the ridge of high pressure is forecast to remain over Utah and Nevada. Another short wave trough is forecast to move southeastward late Monday into Tuesday across mainly northeast and east central Texas. This will bring a slight chance for showers or thunderstorms, but since the system will be weaker than the previous one widespread rainfall is not expected. By Wednesday into Thursday the ridge to our west will broaden out and encompass much of Texas, thus most of the region will have dry weather. However, the ridge will is not expected to have as much influence over south Texas, thus rainfall is expected to continue along and near the Gulf coast due to land and sea interactions Tuesday through Friday. Also, an easterly wave of low pressure is forecast over deep south Texas on Thursday as well, but heavy rainfall is not forecast. And, diurnal thunderstorms should persist each afternoon over parts of New Mexico and Colorado Wednesday through Friday. While only light rain is forecast for the middle and latter parts of the week, significant river flooding is expected to continue for many more days on some of the Texas rivers due to past rainfall events. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Monday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast for portions of extreme southeastern Texas, over far southern Louisiana, as well as over the mountains of northern and western New Mexico. Lesser MAP amounts are forecast for south Texas, southern Louisiana, the northwest half of New Mexico and southern Colorado. For Monday into Tuesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast for the southeast third of Texas into Louisiana, as well as over most of New Mexico, southern Colorado and far west Texas. For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast for areas along and near the Texas Gulf coast. Lesser MAP amounts are forecast for eastern and southern Texas, Louisiana, northern and western New Mexico and southern Colorado. For Wednesday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for areas along and near the Texas Gulf coast into deep south Texas, as well as over and near the mountains of northern and western New Mexico into southern Colorado. Lesser MAP amounts are forecast for southern Texas, southern Louisiana, a good part of New Mexico and Colorado. Many lakes, especially over the northeastern half of Texas, are full and are releasing water according to regulation rules and schedules. Soil moisture remains high across much of Texas from rainfall over the past two months. Rainfall over the next five days in primarily southeastern Texas may be enough to cause some runoff locally, but significant, widespread runoff is not expected. Rainfall intensities and potential runoff will be monitored. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...Guadalupe Basin... ...Moderate Flooding... Releases at Canyon Lake have a few sites downstream on the Guadalupe River elevated in action stage. Downstream, Bloomington (DUPT2) will continue to recede very slowly towards minor flood levels in a few days. ...Trinity Basin... ...Moderate Flooding... Widespread flooding continues along the Trinity River mainstem. Flood stages will continue for some time as travel time from Dallas to Lake Livingston averages about 2 weeks. Lake Livingston has been able to reduce their releases a little over the last few days as the lake returns to its normal elevation. Trinidad (TDDT2) and Liberty (LBYT2) are the two locations still affected by moderate flooding. ...Neches Basin... ...Minor Flooding... Minor flooding continues along the Neches River basin as the very slow moving water works its way downstream. The slow nature of the Neches River will keep the river well above flood stage at many locations for several weeks even though the rains have temporarily ended. There is still significant flood water in Sam Rayburn Reservoir which is above the flood pool; therefore releases will continue for several weeks. ...Sabine Basin... ...Minor Flooding... Minor flooding continues at Mineola (MLAT2) and Deweyville (DWYT2). Toledo Bend is continuing to slowly decrease their releases. ...San Jacinto Basin... ...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts... Locally heavy rains have caused bayous and creeks to rise rapidly this morning around bankfull levels. The flooding should recede quickly. ...San Bernard Basin... Basins along the San Bernard River have crested and will continue to fall throughout the week. The reach from Boling (BOLT2) to Sweeny (SWYT2) is still elevated but below minor flood levels. ...Brazos Basin... ...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts... All locations along the river are now below minor flood levels. Flows along the river system will remain well above normal because of the releases from the upstream lakes ...Remainder of WGRFC Basins... Soils remain wetter than normal over much of the WGRFC area. Higher than normal flows should be the norm throughout the area, especially over southeast Texas basins where the heaviest rain will fall the next 5 days. New Mexico and Colorado remain near base flow, but slightly higher than normal flows are being noted at several locations due to recent rains. New Mexico is expected to continue to get scattered storms in its central and eastern parts as upper level disturbances continue to pass over the area. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: National Precipitation Analysis: The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: The US Drought Assessment: The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: STORY $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.