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510 AGUS74 KFWR 211549 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1048 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016 VALID JULY 21 THROUGH JULY 26 ...CONTINUED HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WGRFC AREA INTO THE WEEKEND... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... Hot and dry remains the headliner for the WGRFC area as high pressure at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere remains in place for the majority of the region over the next few days. Hydrologically, the focus is on the drying soils after such a wet Spring. An isolated shower or two remains possible over southeast Texas into southern Louisiana, along the Gulf coast due to the sea breeze front. Isolated diurnal showers and thunderstorms return through the weekend over portions of eastern and southern New Mexico and south central Colorado, mainly due daytime heating, and orographic lift. Mean areal precipitation will be minimal. Sunday into early next week, expect the rain chances to increase as a couple of shortwave troughs push eastward from the northwestern U.S. weakening the ridge across the region. This, along with some moisture advection could result in some scattered showers and thunderstorms for portions of the WGRFC area, especially along the ARK-LA-TEX region. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Friday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch are forecast for the western portions of the San Juan Mountains in the upper Rio Grande in south central Colorado. For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch are forecast for the western portions of the San Juan Mountains in the upper Rio Grande in south central Colorado. For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch are forecast for the western portions of the San Juan Mountains in the upper Rio Grande in south central Colorado. For Sunday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch are forecast for the western portions of the San Juan Mountains in the upper Rio Grande and for the eastern portion of Texas...Ark-La-Tex region. Soils are beginning to dry out across Texas. The U.S. Drought Monitor has categorized Texas as 13% abnormally dry, with almost 2% in moderate or greater drought noted. Over New Mexico, 77% of the state is abnormally dry, and 16% remains in the moderate drought category. The lack of widespread rainfall this month combined with limited rainfall forecast over the next few days will lead to continued drying through this forecast period. No significant rainfall or runoff is expected. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...Trinity Basin... ...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts... Above normal flows continue on the Elm Fork of the Trinity River near Carrollton (CART2). These elevated flows will continue for the next several days as flood pools are evacuated from upstream reservoirs. ...Brazos Basin... ...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts... Above normal flows continue along the lower Brazos River at Richmond (RMOT2). These elevated flows are expected to continue through the next several days. ...Remainder of WGRFC Basins... Several basins across eastern portions of the WGRFC area remain saturated. Higher than normal seasonal flows are occurring in the eastern half of the state as a result. However, no significant rain is expected over the next 5 days, so no significant river responses are expected over this time frame. Daily convective activity can cause minor rises anywhere in the forecast area, but most areas have little chance of seeing any convective activity for the next couple of days. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide AUSTIN-SMITH $$


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