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316 AGUS74 KFWR 021610 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1109 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015 VALID AUGUST 2 THROUGH AUGUST 7 ...GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES IN THE WEST INTO MONDAY. DRIER THIS COMING WEEK... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... Isolated thunderstorm rainfall as high as 3 inches fell in portions of eastern New Mexico during the past 24 hours, as part of a widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms throughout New Mexico, Colorado and northwestern Texas. Scattered coverage with amount of up to 1 inch was observed in southwestern Texas. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected by this afternoon and continuing into the night over portions of Colorado, New Mexico and western Texas. There is a potential for locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding, especially in the mountains of northern New Mexico and southwestern Colorado. An upper level high pressure ridge is anchored over Texas and New Mexico and will continue to dominate the weather during the next week. This includes generally hot weather, and a drying trend due to a shift in the positioning of the upper level high. After one more good chance for thunderstorms in the west on Monday, any rainfall on Tuesday into Friday should be isolated and insignificant. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Monday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are forecast for portions of northern New Mexico and southwestern Colorado, in the mountains. MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inch are forecast for portions of far northwestern Texas, southwestern New Mexico, and southeastern Colorado. Lesser amounts are forecast for the rest of New Mexico and for the rest of northwestern Texas. For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are forecast for the Texas Panhandle and for isolated mountain areas in Colorado and New Mexico. Lesser amounts are forecast for much of the rest of New Mexico, Colorado, and northwestern Texas. For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Wednesday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. Lakes over the northeastern half of Texas are still releasing water according to regulation rules and schedules. Soil moisture has been very high across much of Texas from rainfall over the past two months. However, with the dry spell through July, topsoil continues to dry out in Texas. The rainfall forecast over the next five days will not be heavy enough to cause significant runoff except over the mountainous areas of New Mexico. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...Trinity Basin... ...Minor Flooding... Increased releases from Lewisville and Grapevine will push Carrolton into flood stage for the forecast period. This will be updated as further release information is acquired from the Corps on their projections over the next few days. ...Remainder of WGRFC Basins... The remainder of WGRFC rivers are below criteria, and no significant rainfall is expected over the forecast period. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org PHILPOTT $$


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