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201 AGUS74 KFWR 221614 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1113 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016 VALID SEPTEMBER 22 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 27 ...HOT AND MOSTLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... Hot and dry across most of the WGRFC area for today with some isolated showers expected in New Mexico, southern Colorado and southeast Texas. This pattern will continue through Friday, with a chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day due to the position of the upper level ridge and the sea breeze front. By tomorrow, a developing low pressure system in the central Rockies will move eastward towards the region. This will increase the rain chances for showers and thunderstorms across much of the WGRFC later this weekend into early next week. Across the WGFRC area, some convection can be expected on Saturday ahead of the front as it treks eastward. As the cold front moves into Texas later Sunday into Monday, the rainfall will increase in both coverage and intensity with the potential for locally heavy rain in some areas. Rain lingers across the area at least into Tuesday. The cold front is forecast to exit the region by mid-week with a return of drier weather combined with noticeably cooler temperatures. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Friday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of up to 0.25 inch are forecast for central New Mexico and for southeast Texas. For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of up to 0.25 inch are forecast for western New Mexico, southern Colorado and for southeast Texas. For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of amounts of 0.50 to 1.0 inches are forecast for northeast Texas with the highest expected in the Red River Valley. For Sunday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of amounts of 0.50 to 2.0 inches are forecast for most of Texas with the highest of up to 4.50 inches in central southeast Texas. Because of the widespread rain over the past few weeks over parts of New Mexico and Texas, drought conditions remain favorable. The U.S. Drought Monitor categorizes Texas as 4.5% abnormally dry, with almost 1% in severe drought. New Mexico remains unchanged this week with 47% of the state abnormally dry and 4% in the moderate drought category. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...WGRFC Basins... Soils remain relatively wet over the eastern two-thirds of the region. Further out west, the soils continue dry and likely enough to handle most of the upcoming rain expected later this weekend into early next week. However, the rainfall amounts expected could generate minor or greater flooding in localized headwater areas within the Texas Hill Country and coastal areas along the middle Texas Gulf Coast. Additionally, reservoirs in Mexico within the Rio Conchos drainage along with reservoirs within smaller Mexico watersheds that directly drain into the mainstem between Amistad and Falcon, are near conservation and may begin regulation. This would affect Rio Grande flows from Presido downstream through Falcon with the onset of any heavy, widespread rainfall within those areas of Mexico. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide AUSTIN-SMITH $$