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215 AGUS74 KFWR 061700 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1159 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015 VALID OCTOBER 6 THROUGH OCTOBER 11 ...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS COLORADO, NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THE THROUGH FRIDAY... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... Currently, a few showers are moving across portions of the Trans-Pecos region this morning. This activity is associated with a very slow moving upper low approaching from the west. Rainfall amounts are expected to remain very light...mainly less than 0.25 inch per hour, throughout the day. Over the last 24 hours, precipitation amounts of 0.50 to 1.00 inch fell across portions of southern Colorado and northern New Mexico. No significant flooding occurred or is expected with this activity through this evening. Elsewhere, an upper level ridge of high pressure continues to dominate the weather over eastern Texas this morning. This feature will persist for another day or two and will continue to produce dry conditions over a good part of Texas. Meanwhile, abundant moisture will continue to stream northward over New Mexico and West Texas, ahead of the approaching upper low. This moisture is expected to combined with upper air disturbances ahead of the main low pressure system, and will continue to result in showers and a few thunderstorms over a good part of New Mexico and far west Texas the next couple of days. This low is expected to be slow moving and is forecast to cross into New Mexico by tomorrow morning and move to a position near El Paso by Thursday morning. So while east Texas and western Louisiana remain dry, precipitation will continue over New Mexico, southern Colorado, and west Texas into the middle of the week. Rainfall amounts in excess of 1.00 inch are possible over parts of southern New Mexico as a result. By Thursday the upper air low will progress slowly southeastward, and will move into Mexico west of the Texas Big Bend by Friday morning. As this low moves southeastward the area of rain will spread or develop eastward into more of Texas...however the axis of rain should remain along and west of the Big Bend. Precipitation Amounts of up to 2.00 inches are expected across the Trans-Pecos and Permian Basin. By late Thursday, the upper low will begin move back towards the south and west. This will shift the heaviest rainfall into portions of northern Mexico by the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms will still be possible across West Texas and the Big Bend, however the heavier amounts will remain farther south and west. Thereafter, an upper ridge will begin to develop once again across most of the region. This will bring a return of mild and dry weather to the WGRFC region early next week. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Wednesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of up to 1.00 inch are forecast for portions of southern New Mexico and West Texas. For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of up to 2.00 inches are forecast for portions of New Mexico and West Texas...mainly over the Trans-Pecos and Permian Basin. For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of up to 2.00 inches are forecast for portions of the Big Bend and west central Texas. For Friday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of up to 2.00 inches are forecast for portions of the Big Bend and northern Mexico. Drought conditions have returned to a good part of Texas. Only the Gulf coast, far west Texas and the panhandle are free from abnormally dry conditions. Topsoil moisture has decreased over the past month, which means it will require more rainfall to fall for runoff to occur. In Texas 65% of the state is abnormally dry, with 18% in severe drought. In New Mexico, 43% of the state is also abnormally dry. Some beneficial rainfall will occur from central and southeast New Mexico into the southwest third of Texas the next several days, and some runoff will likely occur. Elsewhere, the rainfall forecast over the next five days will not be heavy enough to cause significantrunoff. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...WGRFC Basins... The forecast for the rest of this week shows rain increasing over southern and western Texas as well as over New Mexico. This rainfall for the next few days may cause some minor flooding over eastern and southern New Mexico and southwest Texas. Elsewhere, only light rainfall is expected over northern and eastern Texas, keeping the rivers in these areas near normal if not below normal levels. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: National Precipitation Analysis: The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: The US Drought Assessment: The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: MCCANTS $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.