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199 AGUS74 KFWR 161622 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1122 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014 VALID APRIL 16 THROUGH APRIL 21 ...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR A FEW DAYS, BUT RAIN IS FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... A ridge of high pressure has moved into the WGRFC region the past 24 hours. The ridge is flattening this morning, resulting in a zonal upper air flow. Dry air associated with this flow is bringing the area dry weather today. By tonight an upper air disturbance is forecast to develop over the Colorado Rockies. This trough may produce rain, with snow at higher elevations, across Colorado and northeast New Mexico. But as this disturbance moves across Kansas and Oklahoma Thursday most of the showers and thunderstorms associated with this trough will be to the north of the WGRFC area. Some rain may occur across extreme northern Texas but it will not be significant. This disturbance will be east of our region Thursday night. On Friday a weak ridge of high pressure will bring mostly dry weather to the WGRFC area (except the far western portions). But by Friday night a new upper air disturbance will be moving through the Desert Southwest. Moisture will be increasing ahead of this disturbance, and rainfall will begin to develop across portions of New Mexico and west Texas Friday night. Then as the disturbance moves eastward the rain is forecast to become fairly widespread on Saturday across especially the northwest half of Texas. The rain should linger into Sunday over primarily north Texas and Oklahoma. At this time only light to moderate amounts of rainfall are expected from the storm this weekend. The upper level disturbance is forecast to move to the east on Monday and the light rain will end. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Thursday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast for portions of southeastern Colorado and extreme northeast New Mexico, with the heaviest amounts forecast just east of the WGRFC area. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for southern Colorado, the northeast quarter of New Mexico, and the northern Texas panhandle. For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for the eastern Texas panhandle into north central Texas. For Friday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for portions of southwestern Colorado into central New Mexico and far west Texas. For Saturday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or more are forecast for portions of the northwest half of Texas and extreme southeast New Mexico. MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast for the extreme northern New Mexico and southern Colorado. The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 1.00 inch, are forecast from near Mineral Wells TX to near Wichita Falls TX. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast over most of the remainder of the WGRFC area (except for the Gulf coast). The drought conditions have been deteriorating over the last several weeks over most of the region. Almost all of New Mexico and 85% of Texas remain in some level of drought category. In addition, 28% of Texas and 25% of New Mexico are in extreme drought. Statewide, in Texas, reservoirs are, on average, are around 65% full. This is below average for this time of year, with average being about 80% full. There is considerable variability across the state, with many of the reservoirs in the western half of the state below 50% full. Due to the dry soil moisture conditions, the rainfall which is forecast the next 5 days will not be heavy enough to produce significant runoff. Mainstem river flooding is not expected. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...Sabine Basin... ...Minor Flooding... Toledo Bend Reservoir has discontinued 24/7 full power generation until further notice. Higher flows from earlier high releases are expected to keep the stage at Deweyville (DWYT2) sightly above minor flood stage through April 19 then fall back to low flow conditions. 2 units were taken offline at 4PM yesterday. ...Rio Grande Basin... ...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts... Amistad increased releases last week elevating flows along the mainstem from Amistad downstream to Falcon Lake. No significant impacts are expected, although the river at Columbia Bridge (CBBT2) is fluctuating above an action level for pumps and livestock in the area. The duration of Amistad releases is unknown at this time. ...Remainder of WGRFC Basins... More rainfall is expected this weekend in north Texas in the WGRFC area. However, no significant impacts are expected along the mainstems. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org STORY $$