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127 AGUS74 KFWR 211533 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1017 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014 VALID JULY 21 THROUGH JULY 26 ...DRIER CONDITIONS FORECAST WITH INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES UNTIL NEXT WEDNESDAY... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... An upper level high has intensified and is now centered over eastern New Mexico. This feature will remain a dominant factor in our weather pattern throughout the coming week. As it strengthens, it will shift north into Colorado by midweek allowing an increase in temperatures over most of the WGRFC forecast area. The forecast will generally be rain-free for Texas with the exception of continued isolated thunderstorms along the coast in southeast Texas fed by off-shore breezes. The upper level high is expected to remain stationary for a few days and provide an opportunity for rain to return to far southeast Texas by Wednesday afternoon. Farther west, a monsoonal plume of moisture moving up from the south will feed storm activity this afternoon and evening in the middle of the Rio Grande valley and eastern slopes of New Mexico. This activity should continue nearly every afternoon through the next few days providing some potential for convective activity around the Albuquerque and Santa Fe metro areas. Rainfall associated with this system is helping to alleviate some of the adverse impacts of the persistent drought that has plagued the region. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Tuesday morning, no significant Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch are forecast for eastern New Mexico due to monsoonal activity. For Wednesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Thursday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch are forecast in the headwaters of the upper Rio Grande around the Albuquerque and Santa Fe metro areas including south central Colorado. Extreme to exceptional drought persists over parts of southwest Texas, as well as over the western parts of north Texas into the Texas Panhandle and northeast New Mexico. Statewide, less than 1% of New Mexico and about 5% of Texas are in exceptional drought. But, severe drought conditions are impacting 78% of New Mexico and 37% of Texas. The monsoonal rains in New Mexico have reduced the severe category by 10 points over the past week. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...Neches Basin... ...Minor Flooding... The Neches River near Diboll (DIBT2) continues to be above minor flood stage today. The Angelina River near Lufkin (LUFT2) is over flood stage today. River responses elsewhere in the Neches have been minimal. ...Remainder of WGRFC Basins... All other WGRFC river forecast locations are below bankfull level. Significant rainfall is not forecast through the end of the forecast period. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org CAZIER $$


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