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791 AGUS74 KFWR 021723 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1122 AM CST MON DEC 2 2013 VALID DECEMBER 2 THROUGH DECEMBER 7 ...NICE COUPLE OF DAYS IN STORE BEFORE WINTER ARRIVES EARLY... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... Today will continue the recent trend of milder and dry conditions as the weak upper level trough has moved on and dry air has pushed back over the WGRFC area. Mostly zonal flow will continue into Wednesday morning keeping the weather consistent for today and tomorrow in advance of a strong cold front barrelling down from the upper plains. Tuesday night the upper level trough axis is modeled to be near the Nevada Utah state line with the surface low being near the four corners region. This should bring some higher elevation snowfalls to the southern Colorado and northern New Mexico regions of the WGRFC. The surface low will slide southeast into northern New Mexico Wednesday evening as the cold front pushes past the red river and into central Texas. The upper level trough will be moving east allowing the upper levels to draw in moisture from the Pacific across Mexico. This will take some time to mix out through the levels and allow the moisture for some sort of precipitation. So while the cold front pushes through on Wednesday into Thursday, very little precipitation will be associated with the boundary. The upper level trough will continue to dig south pushing the surface low and associated cold front with it. More moisture aloft will be available, especially in the lower levels of the atmosphere allowing for some precipitation to develop Thursday afternoon/evening into Friday. These will be the best chances for precipitation associated with this event. Totals should remain minimal with the front already pushed through and no real mechanism for large widespread precipitation. However, the far north east portion of Texas will see some develop behind the frontal boundary and depending on specific temperature may contain freezing rain. This pattern will be similar through Friday as the disturbance pushes south and out of the area. As it moves out dry air will dominate the precipitation pattern but the clear skies will not help any with the below normal cold air that will settle in over the weekend. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Tuesday morning, no significant Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 of water equivalent snowfall is forecasted for the higher elevations in Colorado and northern New Mexico. For Thursday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 1 inch are possible for far east Texas. 0.5 inches is forecasted for further west over the metroplex down to Houston. 0.25 inches pushes even farther west over into central Texas. The drought situation in Texas continues to improve with only around 5% of the state in extreme drought in some isolated areas. New Mexico is improving as well with only 3% of its area in extreme drought, however all of the state still remains in some level of drought category. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...Neches Basin... ...Minor Flooding... Heavy rainfall last week and continued releases at Lake Palestine, has the upper Neches River flowing within minor flood conditions from Neches (NCST2) through Alto (ATOT2) to Diboll (DIBT2). Localized flooding along the associated bayous has crested and slowly receding. Downstream along the mainstem and associated tributaries, higher non-flood flows have now crested and slowly falling. Further flooding is not expected during forecast period. ...Sabine Basin... ...Minor Flooding... The 24hr 2 unit power generation at Toledo Bend will likely reduce in the next few days to 1 unit as lake levels continue to fall toward 168 ft. The generation has increased flows above minor flood at Deweyville (DWYT2) that will hold most of the week, then begin falling over the weekend. ...Trinity Basin... ...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts... Lake Livingston releases began decreasing Sunday and will continue as inflows are falling off. Current release is 13,000cfs. Downstream of the lake along the mainstem, river levels will begin falling from bank full from Liberty (LBYT2) through Moss Bluff (MBFT2) through the week. ...Brazos Basin... ...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts... Releases from Lake Limestone, which have now decreased, are still making way downstream through Old Spanish Rd near Normangee (NGET2), which will drop below action stage today. ...Remainder of WGRFC Basins... The remainder of WGRFC rivers remain below criteria. No significant flooding is expected at this time. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought GIARDINO $$