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986 AGUS74 KFWR 191710 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1109 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014 VALID DECEMBER 19 THROUGH DECEMBER 24 ...PRECIPITATION CONTINUES OVER NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... An upper level trough is currently moving across the WGRFC area. This system is expected to bring widespread precipitation across New Mexico and Texas through Saturday morning. Another upper level trough is expected to begin developing over New Mexico late Saturday and deepen over Texas Monday and Tuesday. With this system, precipitation is possible over northern New Mexico and across north Texas. By Wednesday, this upper level system is expected to move east of the WGRFC area. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Saturday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 2.00 inches are forecast over the Texas Gulf Coast into southern Louisiana. For Saturday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Sunday into Monday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Monday into Wednesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. Moderate or worse drought conditions continue to be observed over parts of New Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about half the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (44%) and 10% has extreme to exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, nearly two thirds of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (65%) and 4% has extreme to exceptional drought conditions. Soils are generally dry enough such that forecast rainfall will generate mostly minor runoff. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...San Jacinto Basin... Local heavy rains on Buffalo Bayou will put the river near Sheppards Drive (BBST2) a few feet over action stage later this afternoon. Otherewise, the river rises should stay below criteria levels. ...Remainder of WGRFC Basins... Rainfall amounts have been slow and steady replenishing much needed soil moisture. Rainfall over the next day or so is expected to continue to provide beneficial moisture. No flooding is expected through the forecast period. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org SHULTZ $$


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