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492 AGUS74 KFWR 281715 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1114 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015 VALID FEBRUARY 28 THROUGH MARCH 5 ...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE WGRFC AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... An upper level disturbance is producing widespread light winter precipitation across New Mexico and most of North Texas. A well organized Pacific storm is expected to track down the West Coast through the weekend and begin to swing east Tuesday. As a result, the upper level flow will become southwest oriented, drawing in deep Pacific moisture. A milder airmass will return to Texas, with the precipitation expected to turn to rain later Sunday. Widespread light rainfall is expected for most of the area through Tuesday. Another strong cold front could impact the area Wednesday, tapping into the deeper moisture. Thunderstorms are possible later Tuesday and Wednesday for the eastern half of Texas. The forecast for New Mexico and Southern Colorado remains unchanged. The previously mentioned upper level Pacific storm will hang around the Southwest U.S. through the middle of next week. Widespread snowfall is expected across New Mexico and Southern Colorado, with upslope areas receiving significant snow amounts. Some areas will measure new snow in "feet" increments through early next week. Widespread beneficial snowfall should help dent the below normal precipitation pattern for this area. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Sunday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch of precipitation are forcast for the upper Rio Grande basin above Albuquerque and points north. The heaviest amounts are forecast for the higher elevations in southern Colorado and through Santa Fe and Taos. MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 are also forecast for the Corpus Christi area and point northwest in the San Antonio and Austin area. For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch of precipitation are forecast for the upper Rio Grande basin above Albuquerque and points north. The heaviest amounts are forecast for the higher elevations in southern Colorado. MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 are also forecast for east Texas with the heaviest amount at the Texas/Louisiana border. For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0,25 of an inch for the upper Rio Grande above Albuquerque into southern Colorado. MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch are also forecast for an narrow band from the Hill Country and points east into Louisiana between the I-20/I-10 corridor. Another area of 0.25 of an inch is also forecast for an area around the Dallas/Ft. Worth metroplex. For Tuesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch are forecast for the eastern third of Texas with the heavier amounts increasing from west to east into Louisiana. Other MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch are forecast from bands of precipitation occurring in the upper Rio Grande valley from Alamogordo (NM) north through Alamosa (CO). Moderate or worse drought conditions continue across parts of New Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about a third of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (43%), and about 14% has extreme to exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, two thirds of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (68%), and 4% has extreme to exceptional drought conditions. Lake levels in these exceptional drought areas are at or near historical lows for this time of year. The most significant precipitation in the forecast the next five days is for New Mexico and Southern Colorado. No significant runoff is expected elsewhere the next five days. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...Sabine Basin... ...Minor Flooding... Runoff from recent storms have pushed the upper Sabine River near Mineola to minor flood level and is expected to crest later today and remain above minor flood levels for 24-36 hours then begin to recede. ...Remainder of WGRFC Basins... Most rivers are generally near normal baseflow conditions across the eastern WGRFC area and below normal across the western areas. Continued periods of cold rain and wintry precipitation over the area will be beneficial moisture as any frozen precipitation will slowly melt and infiltrate into the soil. Some criteria forecasts may be necessary in the flashier basins of east Texas through the period. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org CAZIER $$


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