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977 AGUS74 KFWR 311641 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1140 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015 VALID AUGUST 31 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 ...COASTAL SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK ALONG WITH MONSOONAL ACTIVITY OUT WEST... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... The precipitation continued for another day along the weak stationary front over north central Texas, but looks to come to an end today as the atmosphere has mixed out the ingredients of the front. Meanwhile, the tropical upper tropospheric trough continues to try and develop over the eastern Gulf coast of Texas. This will allow lift to occur and stream over the coast bringing coastal precipitation for the next few days. The precipitation has begun bringing isolated showers near the Matagorda region. These showers should not push to far inland and no flooding is expected. The monsoonal activity should continue out in the western portion of the WGRFC area. Otherwise, the upper level ridge will remain fixated over the rest of the forecast area keeping the weather warm and dry for much of the week. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Tuesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 inches are forecasted for the Gulf Coast region. For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inches are forecasted for the Gulf Coast region. For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inches are forecasted for the Gulf Coast region. For Thursday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inches are forecasted for the Gulf Coast region. Drought conditions are returning to a good part of the southeast two thirds of Texas. Topsoil moisture has decreased during the past month or so, thus it will take more rainfall for runoff to occur. In Texas 41% of the state is abnormally dry, with 6% in severe drought. In New Mexico, 51% of New Mexico is also abnormally dry. The rainfall forecast over the next five days will not be heavy enough to cause significant runoff. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...All WGRFC Basins... All WGRFC rivers are below criteria. The precipitation forecast over the next couple days is not expected to create significant issues. Dry soil conditions continue across most of Texas. Lake levels continue to remain near conservation or within flood pools for much of north and east Texas while most west Texas reservoirs are well below conservation. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org GIARDINO $$


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