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264 AGUS74 KFWR 041654 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1154 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016 VALID MAY 4 THROUGH MAY 9 ...CALM AND CLEAR INTO THE WEEKEND... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... A ridge of high pressure has begun to push over the area shoving out all precipitation along with it. The next few days will allow East Texas to dry out from recent rainfalls before sytems can return over the area. The longer we can maintain the ridge and sunshine the more we can allow rivers to drain into the Gulf and the soils to dry a little bit in the upper soil levels. The next system that looks like it will dig south into the Texas region could get some light precipitation going out in West Texas on Saturday. Many ingredients still need to formulate for the forecast to be fully understood but expect moisture to be available out in front of this system and allow for precipitation to develop Sunday into early next week, with the severe weather potential higher earlier in the period and the heavy rainfall threat in the later part of the event. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Thursday morning, no significant Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Friday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Saturday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.5 inches of rainfall are possible for West Texas. Soils are now very moist across a good part of the state, especially the eastern portions. Texas is now categorized as being 13% abnormally dry, with 2% in the moderate drought category. Over New Mexico, almost the entire state remains in the abnormally dry category, and 44% is in moderate drought. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...Sabine Basin... ...Major Flooding... Multiple locations on the upper Sabine River are currently receding from recent rainfall as water continues to translate downstream. This routed water is forecast to cause the Sabine River at Gladewater (GDWT2) to rise to major flood levels. Downstream, other sites remain elevated, continuing to rise into minor and moderate flood levels impacting local roadways and agriculture. Toledo Bend has recently increased their releases. This will also cause minor and moderate flooding downstream at various locations. ...Neches Basin... ...Moderate Flooding... Recent rainfall in the upper half of the Neches River Basin has pushed numerous forecast points into minor and moderate flood levels. Lakes remain full with flood storage being released from Sam Rayburn Reservoir. ...San Jacinto Basin... ...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts... All sites in recession at this time with some remaining in action stage for the next few days. ...San Bernard Basin... ...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts... Heavy rain has slowed the recession within action stage for Sweeny (SWYT2) but should be below action stage now. ...Trinity Basin... ...Major Flooding... Minor to major flooding continues in the Trinity River basin as flood flows reach the mid to lower basin. As the lower basin flows subside, flood control reservoirs well continue to release stored floodwaters. ...Brazos Basin... ...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts... Higher than normal flows continue on the lower Brazos River due to recent heavy rainfall, but all locations are currently forecast to stay below flood stage. Flood control reservoirs are slowly releasing their flood waters keeping the mainstem of the Brazos below Lake Whitney well above base flow. ...Remainder of WGRFC Basins... Soils remain wet over most of the WGRFC area, but a little break from rainfall is expected for the region. Next shot at significant rainfall will be this weekend. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide GIARDINO $$


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