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527 AGUS74 KFWR 311642 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1141 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014 VALID AUGUST 31 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 ...DRY AIR DOMINATES FORECAST BUT A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS REMAIN... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... The coastal rainfall is still occurring along the coast, again not reaching very far inland. Yesterday, lower level winds shifted to southerly pushing most of the precipitation to the Texas Louisiana border. Today the flow is currently more easterly on shore so the storms are occurring along the central Texas Gulf coast. The storms are slowly shifting back towards the Louisiana border similar to yesterday. They are a little lighter than previous days but the areas are saturated and experiencing urban and small stream flooding already. Continued rainfall will exacerbate these impacts through the day. Models show continued drying of the mid level air but throughout the day tomorrow to saturate again causing these storms to occur for another day, focused more towards the Texas Louisiana border through the Houston area. The longer range forecast does not show the ending of this pattern, but the slow dissipation as two high pressure systems slowly meander out of position that streams moisture right at the western Gulf coast. The rest of the area will be fairly dry as an upper level weak ridge will settle over the plains keeping precipitation chances low. There is the possibility of a tropical system developing down south near the Bay of Campeche, but the current forecast takes the storm into Mexico well south of Brownsville. However, some precipitation may push far enough north to continue the coastal storm parade later in the week. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Monday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.5 inches are forecasted by WPC for the central Gulf coast of Texas. 0.25 inches are possible extending north to the border. For Monday into Tuesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Wednesday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.5 inches are possible for deep south Texas and parts of Mexico contributing to the lower Rio Grande. 0.25 inches is forecast for most of south Texas if this Tropical Storm develops. Drought persists over Texas and New Mexico. Statewide, New Mexico has no areas of exceptional drought while less than 3% of Texas remains in exceptional drought. Severe drought conditions are impacting 40% of New Mexico and 34% of Texas. The monsoonal rains in New Mexico continue to ease the drought conditions in many areas of the state. Some runoff can be expected along the immediate Texas Gulf coast the next 5 days, but minor or no runoff is anticipated elsewhere. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...WGRFC Basins... River conditions across the WGRFC area remain near or below seasonal flows. Locally heavy rainfall is occurring along the Texas Gulf Coast and in southeastern Texas. Runoff is possible in river basins in these areas. However, no significant flooding is forecast to occur through the forecast period. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org GIARDINO $$