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189 AGUS74 KFWR 081627 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1027 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016 VALID FEBRUARY 8 THROUGH FEBRUARY 13 ...A DRY SPELL OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... A large high pressure system has formed along the west coast of the U.S. and was centered over northern California this morning. This ridge will persist and move slowly east for several days. By Saturday this ridge will be along and just west of the Rocky Mountains. As a result, a northwesterly upper air flow will be the predominant weather feature over our region. This northwesterly upper air flow may have minor upper air disturbances rippling through it, but atmospheric moisture will be so limited that no precipitation will result. Therefore, the weather will be dry across the WGRFC area from today through at least Saturday. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Tuesday morning, no significant Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Wednesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Thursday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. Soil moisture has begun to decrease and soils have become somewhat drier due to the lack of significant precipitation lately and warmer than normal temperatures. As a result, it would take a bit more rainfall than usual for significant runoff to occur. Over Texas, 2% of the state is categorized as abnormally dry, but this amount is expected to increase given the current dry weather pattern. Over New Mexico, 9% of the state is abnormally dry, and that is mostly confined to the western portions of the state. No precipitation is expected over the next 5 days so no runoff will occur. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...WGRFC Basins... Sites above criteria are Deweyville (DWYT2) on the lower Sabine and Carrollton (CART2) on the Elm Fork of the Trinity River. Some dam release changes are anticipated next week in the Trinity Basin. No rainfall is forecast in the next 5 days. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org STORY $$


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