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972 AGUS74 KFWR 041607 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1106 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015 VALID JULY 4 THROUGH JULY 9 ...MONSOONAL RAINFALL TO CONTINUE OUT WEST WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER TEXAS FOR HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT RAIN TO RETURN NEXT WEEK... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... Ridge continues to sit over the New Mexico area which will allow the monsoonal flow to generate through the weekend. Coastal isolated storms are expected to develop over southeastern Texas today and tomorrow during the afternoon and evening hours. The rest of the area may see an isolated shower but should be dry for the majority of the weekend. Next week a forecast for a frontal boundary could bring a line of showers and thunderstorms from the Big Bend area through the panhandle into Oklahoma. This boundary will interact with strong low level moisture advection in the lower levels while moisture remaining available aloft to limit the capability of the CAP to reduce storm initiation. The heaviest of the rainfall will be concentrated to the north of the WGRFC area with the current forecast, but the rain will stretch down into the area Monday into Tuesday as it moves west to east. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Sunday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 are possible for isolated areas of New Mexico. For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 for northern New Mexico and southern Colorado are forecasted. For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to an inch are possible for northcentral Texas with close to an inch also possible for northern New Mexico area. For Tuesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.5 inches are forecasted for northcentral and western Texas. An inch is forecasted for areas near El Paso into New Mexico with 0.5 inches possible for northern New Mexico. Many lakes, especially over the northeastern half of Texas, are full and are releasing water according to regulation rules and schedules. Soil moisture remains high across much of Texas from rainfall over the past two months. Rainfall over the next five days in primarily southeastern Texas may be enough to cause some runoff locally, but significant, widespread runoff is not expected. Rainfall intensities and potential runoff will be monitored. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...Trinity Basin... ...Minor Flooding... Widespread flooding continues along the Trinity River mainstem. Flood stages will continue for some time as travel time from Dallas to Lake Livingston averages about 2 weeks. A wave of minor flooding is working its way down the middle Trinity River. Trinidad (TDDT2) has fallen to minor flood and Long Lake (LOLT2) is at minor flood levels and falling. Riverside (RVRT2) has begun rising slightly into minor flood stage. Lake Livingston has been holding at 28,400 CFS outflow for several days, but an increase is possible next week due to increasing inflows. For now, levels continue to fall downstream at Liberty (LBYT2) and Moss Bluff (MBFT2). ...Guadalupe Basin... ...Minor Flooding... Canyon Lake has reduced releases which will lower the remaining forecasts as that reduced flow pushes downstream. Still elevated flow expected at Victoria (VICT2) and Bloomington (DUPT2) through forecast period. ...Neches Basin... ...Minor Flooding... Minor flooding continues only on the Neches River near Town Bluff (TBFT2). There is still significant flood water in Sam Rayburn Reservoir which is above the flood pool; therefore releases will continue for several weeks and will keep Town Bluff within minor flood. ...Sabine Basin... ...Minor Flooding... Minor flooding continues at Mineola (MLAT2) and Deweyville (DWYT2). Toledo Bend Reservoir will not do any power gen today or Sunday. This will create fluctuations in stage downstream at Burkeville and Bon Wier this week, and falling stages at Deweyville by next weekend. ...Brazos Basin... ...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts... All locations along the river are now below minor flood levels. However, flows along the river system will remain elevated above normal because of the releases from the upstream lakes ...Remainder of WGRFC Basins... Soils remain wetter than normal over much of the WGRFC area. Higher than normal flows should be the norm throughout the area. Monsoonal rains continue in New Mexico with some areal and flood" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">flash flooding where locally heavy rains occur from daily convective activity. Refer to the Meteorological discussion for rain chances over the next 5 days. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org GIARDINO $$