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406 AGUS74 KFWR 291539 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1038 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016 VALID JUNE 29 THROUGH JULY 4 ...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF THE WGRFC AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some with heavy downpours, have been occurring across the WGRFC forecast area over the past several days. In addition, there has been diurnal convection with localized heavy rain affecting portions of the Rio Grande basin. A few scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast for today especially for northern Texas, and southeastern Texas along the Gulf coast. A ridge of high pressure will build across the WGRFC area over the next several days decreasing the the coverage and intensity of the shower activity in the wake of an active few days. This high will keep most of our region dry, but upper air disturbances will be passing north of Texas which could bring some rain to the far northern portions of Texas. Otherwise, expect diurnal showers and thunderstorms near the higher elevations of New Mexico and Colorado along with showers and thundershowers over far southeast Texas into southern Louisiana due to the sea breeze front. By the Holiday weekend, expect mostly hot and dry conditions across the WGRFC area as an upper level high builds and holds across Texas. A stray shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, especially along the fringes of the forecast area. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Thursday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch are forecast for northern TX along the panhandle and also extreme southeast TX along the LA border. For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch are forecast for northern TX along the panhandle. For Friday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Saturday into Monday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. Soils continue to be moist across the majority of Texas. Only 1% of Texas is categorized as abnormally dry, with no moderate or greater drought noted. Over New Mexico, 77% of the state is abnormally dry, and 16% remains in the moderate drought category. Even though the soils are wet in Texas, significant runoff is not expected from any rainfall through this forecast period. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...Trinity Basin... ...Moderate Flooding... DFW area flood control reservoirs continue to make flood storage evacuation releases that will keep elevated flows going down the mainstem passing through Lake Livingston. This will keep the lower portion of the Trinity above normal for an extended period with Liberty (LBYT2) staying in moderate flood level. ...Remainder of WGRFC Basins... Some minor flooding continues in the Brazos, Guadalupe, Neches, and Sabine river basins. The remaining river systems across the eastern portions of WGRFC area remain relatively wet. No significant rainfall is expected within the next 5 days that would generate significant river responses. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide AUSTIN-SMITH $$


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