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349 AGUS74 KFWR 021627 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1127 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015 VALID MAY 2 THROUGH MAY 7 ...WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES ARE ON THE HORIZON... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... Calm before the storm has high pressure continues to exert its influence over the area. A large, disorganized upper level storm will move across the Southern California coast Monday. This system will bring a return of widespread significant rainfall to the WGRFC area later in the week. Low level moisture is slowly increasing. This trend will continue through the weekend. As the previously mentioned upper level storm makes its eastward push, disturbances associated with it should help tap into the abundant moisture to help in the development of a large area of needed rainfall for New Mexico and most of the western half of Texas as soon as Monday. By Tuesday, the upper level storm will be lifting north and east into the Northern Plains, allowing for the focus for heavier rainfall to shift east towards North and North Central Texas. Another, stronger and more organized, Pacific storm will dive south down the Rockies during the middle of next week. This system will help reinforce the favorable setup for showers and thunderstorms for the WGRFC area through the end of next week and into next weekend. At this time, areas of Texas west of Interstate 35 are still experiencing various stages of drought. Same story for most of New Mexico and Southern Colorado. Expected rainfall for these areas should help with the ongoing drought. For areas of Texas east of Interstate 35, soils remain fairly saturated. Expected rainfall will likely produce runoff, and new mainstem river flooding is a possibility. We will need to monitor this situation for possible flooding later next week. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Sunday morning, no significant Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Sunday into Monday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 1 to 1.50 inches are forecast for Southeast New Mexico and West Texas. MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for the remainder of the eastern half of New Mexico and the remainder of the western half of Texas. For Tuesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 1 to 2 inches are forecast for a large swath of Texas from the Panhandle through the Big Country and Heartland east toward North Central and Central Texas. MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for the remainder of the WGRFC area. Moderate or worse drought conditions continue across parts of New Mexico and Texas. Recent precipitation events have brought drought relief to parts of Texas. In Texas, about a third of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (31%), and about 6% has extreme to exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, a little over half of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (56%). Lake levels in the extreme drought areas of Texas have responded some, but many are at or near historical lows for this time of year. The rainfall expected over the next five days over the WGRFC area will likely be heavy enough to produce significant runoff over roughly the western half of the WGRFC area. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...Neches Basin... ...Minor Flooding... Widespread minor flooding is occurring in the Neches and Angelina river basins. Each location has reached or is near crest. The stage on the Neches River near Town Bluff (TBFT2) is being driven by releases out of B.A. Steinhagen lake. ...Sabine Basin... ...Minor Flooding... Higher non-flood and minor flood flows continue on the Sabine River mainstem, though most locations are now below forecast criteria levels. Toledo Bend continues full 2-unit continuous power generation producing approx 15,000 CFS outflow. Deweyville (DWYT2) will remain above minor flood levels for several days.The river system remains saturated and the short break from rainfall will not be long enough to fully recover before the next round of flooding will begin. ...Brazos Basin... ...Minor Flooding... The Navasota River in the Brazos River system will remain in or near minor flood levels for several days near Easterly (EAST2) and near Normangee (NGET2). ...Trinity Basin... ...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts... All locations in the Trinity River system are below flood stage this morning, but higher than normal flow will continue as the flood water from earlier this week continue their trip to the Gulf. Lake Livingston continues to remain full and is passing the extra water from upstream through it`s flood gates. The river at Riverside (RVRT2) is above action stage and will stay there for a few days while the lake continues it releases. ...Rio Grande Basin... ...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts... Releases from the Marte Gomez Reservoir are causing higher than normal flows downstream, especially at San Benito which is above action stage. The water is being diverted into the various flood control structures in the Lower Valley, so no flooding is expected from this event. ...Remainder of WGRFC Basins... Minor flooding continues in the Brazos, Neches, and Sabine River basins. No significant rainfall sufficient to cause additional flooding is expected until next Tuesday/Wednesday when the next upper level system starts developing several rounds of precipitation as it slowly moves eastward. Too soon to pinpoint which basins would be impacted the most. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org WALLER $$


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