Current Version              Previous Versions:   1  2  3  4  


Hydro-Meteorological Discussion

Links in the discussion text will either open a (small) new browser window with a definition
or take you to another web page with more information.

A more complete Weather & Hydrologic Glossary is Available Here

688 AGUS74 KFWR 301656 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1156 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015 VALID MAY 30 THROUGH JUNE 4 ...ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... After the heavy rains over a large portion of the WGRFC area, lots of flood" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">flash flooding and additional river rises occurred once again. Another complex of thunderstorms developed over the Texas Panhandle yesterday and moved over North Texas once again. this squall line had intense rainfall lasting only for a few minutes due to the speed of the storm front. Some scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue on and off for the remainder of the day, however no widespread rainfall is expected until later this evening. By late tonight through tomorrow morning, a cold front is forecast to approach the WGRFC area from the northwest. As it moves across Texas tonight, another 0.50 to 1.00 inch is expected across North and Northwest Texas. Thereafter, rainfall is expected to spread across Central and East Texas as the front continues moving southward. The latest forecast models are still indicating a little relief insight for next week. Some rainfall is expected for the next several days, however widespread rainfall is not expected after Sunday. Even though significant rainfall is not forecast next week, moderate and major flooding is expected to continue for the next couple of weeks. See the hydrologic discussion section for more details. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Sunday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 1.50 inches are forecast for the DFW Metroplex and points to the east. MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch are forecast for the remaining eastern half of Texas with the heavier amounts forecast for the coastal regions from Victoria through Beaumont. For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch are forecast for the southeastern portion of Texas covering the coast from Victoria through Beaumont. For Monday into Tuesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Tuesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. Drought conditions have rapicly improved across all regions of the WGRFC area. Recent precipitation events since Memorial Day have brought drought relief throughout Texas. In Texas, only about 3% of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought conditions, and extreme to exceptional drought conditions are no longer being observed. In New Mexico, a little over a third of the state (western New mexico) is experiencing moderate or worse drought (36%), and they also are free from extreme or exceptional drought conditions. Many of the lakes in Texas have levels which have risen rapidly over the past 3 weeks due to recent heavy rainfall, and many lakes, especially in the eastern half of Texas, are full and are releasing water. The rainfall expected over the next five days over Texas will be not be heavy enough to produce significant runoff. Elsewhere over the WGRFC area no significant runoff is anticipated. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...Guadalupe Basin... ...Major Flooding... The Flood Wave is cresting at Victoria (VICT2) and will move toward Bloomington (DUPT2) through early next week. ...Nueces Basin... ...Major Flooding... Cotulla is beginning to drop off as the routed water looks like its made its way through the area. Downstream at Tilden (TILT2) the routed water appears to have crested but will remain elevated for the forecast period. The Frio River at Tilden (TIDT2) is also on the rise and should crest in a couple of days. Downstream Lake Corpus Cristi is reducing its releases so the recession will slowly continue downstream and Bluntzer (CBVT2) and Calallen (CAAT2). ...San Jacinto Basin... ...Major Flooding... The West Fork of the San Jacinto river near Porter (PTET2) and Humble (HMMT2) have crested and are slowly falling. Other creeks in the area and the East Fork of the San Jacinto have also crested. Future rainfall may produce slight rises in the area. ...Colorado Basin... ...Major Flooding... The Flood Wave from earlier rainfall is moving through the Wharton (WHAT2) area and will continue slowly tracking downstream. While secondary rises are possible, the significant flood threat should diminish this weekend. ...Trinity Basin... ...Major Flooding... Another in a long line of storms has moved through the headwaters of the Trinity River overnight causing additional rises and continued flooding. Non-flood control reservoirs are passing inflows downstream to maintain their lakes at safe levels. All of the flood control lakes are into their flood pools and several have reached, or are forecasted to reach, the top of their flood pools and have started required releases or spills. Major flooding continues from Carrolton (CART2) through Dallas (DALT2) and all the way to Oakmont/Long Lake (LOLT2). The East Fork of the Trinity River at Crandall (CNLT2) is rapidly rising and is expected to rise into major flood category overnight as the extreme flood" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">flash flood" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">flood" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">flash flood event east of Dallas yesterday moves downstream, through Ray Hubbard Reservoir (FRHT2). Lake Livingston continues large releases which will keep the downstream points in flood with Liberty (LBYT2) still in major flood level. No reduction is expected for at least a week. Additional rises may occur from one last heavy rain event starting this morning and continuing this afternoon as a weak cold front moves through north Texas. ...Brazos Basin... ...Major Flooding... Heavy, localized rain fell, once again over parts of the Brazos River system. This is causing rises at isolated locations upstream of Possum Kingdom Lake. Rises are also occurring on the Brazos downstream of Possum Kingdom for Palo Pinto, Dennis, and the Horseshoe Bend area due to rainfall from 2 nights ago. Major flooding is forecast to occur on the lower Brazos River at Richmond (RMOT2). The river at this location is forecast to crest around 50 Sunday. At a river level of 50.2, the Fort Bend levee Improvement District enters into critical flood fighting operations. ...Neches Basin... ...Moderate Flooding... The Neches River system remains in elevated flow levels with several locations currently in flood. The Neches River near Alto (ATOT2) is at moderate levels. Nearly every forecast point within the Neches River system is above flood stage or forecast to rise above flood stage. Lakes in the region are all full and are passing their inflows unless designed for flood control. B.A. Steinhagen Lake is scheduled to increase their releases later today which will elevate flows downstream. As soon as the amount is finalized forecasts will be updated. ...Sabine Basin... ...Moderate Flooding... The upper portion of the basin recieved a small amount of precipitation over night, but it did not impact the watersheds which are currently elevated. Lake Fork has shut off releases so points downstream are forecasted to drop off in the future. Hawkins and Gladewater do remain on the rise but will crest in a few days in moderate flood. Below Toledo Bend Reservoir, Bon Weir continues to trend downward with the cut back of releases from Toledo Bend and Deweyville is currently cresting in moderate flood. ...San Antonio Basin... ...Minor Flooding... Cibolo creek and the San Antonio River near Goliad will show slight rises from recemt rainfall, but will crest well below levels from previous rain events. ...San Bernard Basin... ...Minor Flooding... Moderate flooding is expected across the San Bernard Basin. East Bernard (EBBT2) has crested and the Flood Wave will crest at Boling (BOLT2) this weekend. ...Lavaca-Navidad Basin... ...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts... Flooding is mostly in recession throughout the basin. Ganado (GNDT2) is the only location currenly above bankfull. This reach of the river should be below bankfull earlty next week. ...Rio Grande Basin... ...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts... Releases out of Marte Gomez Reservoir in Mexico are driving a rise on the Rio Grande near San Benito and Ramirez (SBNT2). This rise will continue downstream to Brownsville and Matamoros. ...Remainder of WGRFC Basins... Currently, most rivers are have ongoing flooding conditions and remain very sensitive to further rainfall. Soil conditions remain very saturated and any further rainfall will only exacerbate the ongoing flooding. An expected drying trend over the next week will give us a chance to route all this water downstream. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: National Precipitation Analysis: The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: The US Drought Assessment: The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: CAZIER $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.