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529 AGUS74 KFWR 311703 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1103 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015 VALID JANUARY 31 THROUGH FEBRUARY 5 ...RAIN EXPECTED SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL TO NWS TEXAS... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... The main weather focus continues to be the upper low moving toward Baja California pulling moisture into WGRFC. Precipitation continues in eastern Colorado, eastern New Mexico, and northwest Texas but is moving quickly east. Signifant rainfall should clear the WGRFC area late Sunday. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Sunday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.5 inches are forecast from central to northwest Texas. For Sunday into Monday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Monday into Tuesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Tuesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inches are forecast along the Texas coast. Moderate or worse drought conditions continue across parts of New Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about a third of the state is experiencingmoderate or worse drought (39%), and about 11% has extreme to exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, nearly two thirds of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (65%), and 4% has extreme to exceptional drought conditions. With the exception of east and southeast Texas, soils are generally dry. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...Neches Basin... ...Minor Flooding... Minor flooding continues on the Neches and Angelina rivers near Diboll (DIBT2) and Lufkin (LUFT2), respectively. However, flows along these reaches are slowly falling. ...Sabine Basin... ...Minor Flooding... The Sabine River at Deweyville (DWYT2) remains steady just above minor flood level based on reservoir releases upstream. Toledo Bend will be shutting off one power generation unit at midnight tonight, but will continue 1 unit until further notice. ...Trinity Basin... ...Minor Flooding... The Trinity River at Moss Bluff (MBFT2) has crested and now slowly falling; expected to continue slow fall through this weekend as Lake Livingston dam releases continue to incrementally decrease. ...Remainder of WGRFC Basins... All other forecast locations are at or near seasonal flows across eastern half of WGRFC and below normal across western half. Forecast rainfall this weekend and next week could generate some runoff, especially over the coastal basins and basins across Southeast Texas where soils are saturated, but no significant flooding is expected. Widespread river flooding is not expected over the next 5 days. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org 02 $$