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098 AGUS74 KFWR 021719 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1119 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015 VALID MARCH 2 THROUGH MARCH 7 ...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE WGRFC AREA THIS WEEK... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... Light precipitation occurred across central Texas overnight and this morning. Also, showers and thunderstorms again developed in southeastern Texas and southern Louisiana but were less widespread than yesterday morning. In Colorado and New Mexico, a break in snowfall is occurring this morning. A well organized Pacific storm is now located off the Southern California coast. As a result, the upper level flow over the WGRFC area of responsibility has become southwest oriented, drawing in upper level Pacific moisture. Widespread light rainfall is expected for most of central and eastern Texas today. Also snow and rain is expected to redevelop in New Mexico and Colorado by this evening. A strong cold front is expected to approach the region from the north Tuesday evening as a strong upper level trough moves over the northern United States from Canada. Thunderstorms are possible beginning in northern and northeastern Texas early Wednesday and into southeastern Texas by early Thursday. Snowfall will end in Colorado and New Mexico by midweek, and a final round of precipitation is expected in South Texas on Thursday before dry weather sets in over the weekend. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Tuesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are forecast for southwestern Colorado and for far northern New Mexico. MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inch are forecast for portions of South Texas, southeastern Texas, and south central New Mexico. Lesser MAP amounts are forecast for most of New Mexico and the eastern half of Texas. For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inch are forecast for portions of far northern and northeastern Texas. Lesser MAP amounts are forecast for most of the rest of Texas and for portions of southern Colorado and far northern New Mexico. For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 1 to 2 inches are forecast for portions of northeastern Texas. MAP amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are forecast for much of central and northern Texas. MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inch are forecast for southern and southeastern Texas. For Thursday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. MAP amounts of up to 0.25 inch are forecast for Deep South Texas and coastal Texas. Moderate or worse drought conditions continue across parts of New Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about a third of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (43%), and about 14% has extreme to exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, two thirds of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (68%), and 4% has extreme to exceptional drought conditions. Lake levels in these exceptional drought areas are at or near historical lows for this time of year. Rainfall amounts of up to 2 inches are forecast for eastern Texas, which could produce some runoff. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...WGRFC Basins... Most rivers are generally near normal baseflow conditions across the eastern WGRFC area and below normal across the western areas. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org PHILPOTT $$


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