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Hydro-Meteorological Discussion

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052 AGUS74 KFWR 231604 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1104 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016 VALID AUGUST 23 THROUGH AUGUST 28 ...SOME RAIN TO CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH THE FOCUS OF HEAVIER RAIN TO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE WGRFC... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... An upper level trough over Arizona today will slowly drift east into northwest New Mexico late today and remain across the state Wednesday. Enough atmospheric moisture and diurnal heating will help generate a healthy crop of showers and thunderstorms across portions of the state. A back door cold front is still on track to reach New Mexico later tomorrow advancing southwest into the Rio Grande Valley late tomorrow night or Thursday morning. Additional low level moisture will enhance the likelihood of an increase in storm coverage through Friday with locally heavy rain and a moderate increase in localized flash flood potential. North and Central Texas should continue to see a relatively dry pattern for much of the week, as the subtropical upper high over the southeast Continental US continues to expanding westward over the area. The upper high will continue expanding west over North and Central Texas tonight through Thursday allowing for a few days of drier and warmer weather. A drying trend will begin Sunday, then intensify roughly the first half of the work week. High pressure off Baja CA is forecast to build toward New Mexico and camp out for at least awhile over the four corners area by midweek next week. Since there will continue to be high amounts of atmospheric moisture present from the eastern Pacific the latter half of this week, diurnal showers and thunderstorms will be possible especially across northwestern and far west Texas into eastern New Mexico. Also by Friday morning, an easterly wave of low pressure may bring a chance for showers to southeast Texas and most of Louisiana. Then by Saturday this wave may produce some rain over the entire eastern third of Texas. The heaviest amounts of rain are expected over west Texas and eastern New Mexico from Thursday into Saturday. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Wednesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch are forecast for south central Colorado in the headwaters of the upper Rio Grande. For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch are forecast for south central Colorado in the headwaters of the upper Rio Grande and for a narrow band stretching from northern Mexico through Presidio, Texas, and north northeast into the Texas Panhandle. For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch are forecast for far west Texas and the eastern half of New Mexico. MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch are also forecast for the Houston/Beaumont metroplex and extends into Louisiana. For Friday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch are forecast for the southern half of New Mexico and the upper Rio Grande from Albuquerque northward. After the widespread rain the past seven days over parts of New Mexico and Texas, drought conditions have eased somewhat. The U.S. Drought Monitor has categorized Texas as 29% abnormally dry, with less than 1% in severe drought. Over New Mexico, 88% of the state is abnormally dry, and 24% remains in the moderate drought category. The showers and thunderstorms forecast this week will keep more serious drought conditions from developing over the WGRFC region, while many sections continue drought-free. Since topsoil has become moister, some runoff is possible where the heaviest rain is forecast. However, as the weather dries out some this week most of the runoff will be insignificant across the majority of the WGRFC area. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...San Antonio Basin... ...Major Flooding... The lower San Antonio basin where significant flooding is ongoing, with major flooding near Runge and that flow expected to cause moderate flooding at Goliad. No further rainfall expected to increase the levels just have to wait for the water to get to the Gulf. ...Nueces Basin... ...Major Flooding... The upper Nueces basin continues to deal with the heavy rainfall that fell over the weekend. Atascosa River at Whitsett has initially crested but routed water will keep it above major today before beginning to recede. This will route into the Nueces River near Three Rivers and push the site into moderate this week. ...Guadalupe Basin... ...Moderate Flooding... Lower end of the Guadalupe River continues to move flood waters to the Gulf. Sandies creek continues to rise into moderate as water from the upper portion of the watershed is piling up as it reaches the gage. Areas upstream have probably seen some impacts as the water works its way through the watershed. Areas downstream are nearing their crest and the routed water will keep them elevated but not expected to exacerbate the flooding. ...Trinity Basin... ...Minor Flooding... Out of bank to minor flooding continues in the upper West Fork of the Trinity River. Additional significant rainfall is not forecast in the Trinity basin for the next several days. ...Brazos Basin... ...Minor Flooding... Recent rainfall is resulting in out of bank flows and some minor flooding in isolated locations across the Brazos River basin within the Little River, Yegua creek, and Davidson creek watersheds. Further downstream along the mainstem, flows are within action levels from Hempstead to Richmond. Additional significant rainfall is not forecast in the Brazos basin for the next several days. ...Remainder of WGRFC Basins... Rainfall has tapered off for the area, so all other sites will remain in bank and on the recession as water works its way downstream. Soils are back to being fairly saturated which will lead to more frequent flooding if rainfall were to occur over the next 5 days. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: National Precipitation Analysis: The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: The US Drought Assessment: The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: CAZIER $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.