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649 AGUS74 KFWR 261636 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1135 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015 VALID AUGUST 26 THROUGH AUGUST 31 ...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO THE NEXT 5 DAYS, BUT LITTLE IF ANY RAIN ELSEWHERE... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... An upper level ridge of high pressure is located over northeast New Mexico this morning. This ridge will remain over this general location through Thursday morning. This will allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms over New Mexico and Colorado from this afternoon through the evening hours. And due to the monsoon, mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms can be expected each one of the next five days over this region. While the rainfall will not be heavy, isolated locations may get one to two inches of rain on any given day. With the high pressure ridge west of Texas, a cool front moved slowly southward across northeast and central Texas the past 24 hours. This front enhanced the development of showers and thunderstorms across eastern Texas Tuesday morning and early afternoon, then across central and southwest Texas through last night. Excessive amounts did not occur, but isolated locations around Houston received two to three inches of rain. This rain is regenerating along and near the middle Texas Gulf coast now, however this rain will dissipate by this evening. By Thursday morning, the upper level high will begin shifting southwestward towards southern Arizona. Initially this ridge relocation will not have much impact on the weather over the WGRFC area. However, an upper level shortwave trough is expected to move over the central plains on Friday, which will cause another cool front to approach Texas. This trough may produce a chance for showers and thunderstorms over the Texas panhandle Thursday night, which would spread into northwestern Texas later Friday. The showers and thunderstorms could possibly move across northern Texas Friday night into Saturday, but the more significant thunderstorms will remain to our north. No significant basin averaged rainfall amounts are forecast. By Sunday and Monday the high pressure ridge is forecast to shift back east toward New Mexico. Therefore mostly dry weather conditions will persist over most of Texas and western Louisiana late this weekend into the first part of next week. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Thursday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for the mountains of southwestern Colorado and northwestern New Mexico. Lesser amounts are forecast for the rest of the western half of Colorado, for northwestern half of New Mexico, and for portions of South Texas. For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast for western New Mexico. Lesser amounts are forecast for most of Colorado, for western and northern New Mexico, and the Texas panhandle. For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast for a good part of southern New Mexico. Lesser amounts are forecast for most of the western half of Colorado, most of New Mexico, and for the western parts of north Texas into the Texas panhandle. For Saturday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast for southwestern New Mexico. Lesser amounts are forecast for a good part of Colorado and New Mexico, southwest Texas, and for portions of north central Texas. Drought conditions are returning to a good part of the southeast half of Texas. Topsoil moisture has decreased during the past month or so, thus it will take more rainfall for runoff to occur. In Texas 42% of the state is abnormally dry and 51% of New Mexico is also abnormally dry. The rainfall forecast over the next five days will not be heavy enough to cause significant runoff. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...Trinity Basin... ...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts... Lower sustained releases from Lewisville and Grapevine will keep Carrollton above action stage criteria levels through the forecast period. These flood control reservoirs, along with Ray Roberts, continue to slowly evacuate the flood storage accumulated this past May and June during heavy rainfall episodes. ...Remainder of WGRFC Basins... The remainder of WGRFC rivers are below criteria. The precipitation forecast over the next couple days is not expected to create significant issues. Dry soil conditions continue across most of Texas. Lake levels continue to remain near conservation or within flood pools for much of north and east Texas while most west Texas reservoirs are well below conservation. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org STORY $$


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