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909 AGUS74 KFWR 031611 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1111 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015 VALID AUGUST 3 THROUGH AUGUST 8 ...ONE MORE ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST TODAY... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... Widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms was observed throughout New Mexico, southern Colorado, and northwestern Texas, especially within the Panhandle, during the past 24 hours ending this Monday morning. Isolated amounts over 1 inch were observed throughout this area. An upper level ridge of high pressure continues to dominate the weather of the WGRFC area of responsibility. The positioning of the ridge is now transitioning to a less favorable location for precipitation in the area, centered on southern New Mexico and Arizona. Drier air is already moving into central New Mexico, greatly reducing the chance for thunderstorms there. One more round of widespread showers and thunderstorms can be expected to the north and east of this dry air, in southern Colorado, southeastern and northeastern New Mexico, and the Rolling Plains and Panhandle Plains of West Texas. Isolated amounts in excess of 1 inch can be expected. From Tuesday into Saturday, rainfall should be focused to the north of the WGRFC area of responsibility, along the northeastern edge of the upper level high. Some of this activity may enter far northern Texas, but the chance for significant rainfall is low at least into Saturday morning throughout the region. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Tuesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 1.5 inch are forecast for the Texas Panhandle. MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are forecast for the mountains of southwestern Colorado. MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inch are forecast for portions of southern New Mexico, northeastern New Mexico and southeastern Colorado, and the Rolling Plains of West Texas. Lesser MAP amounts are forecast for most of the rest of New Mexico, southern Colorado, and northwestern Texas. For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Wednesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Thursday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. Lakes over the northeastern half of Texas are still releasing water according to regulation rules and schedules. Soil moisture has been very high across much of Texas from rainfall over the past two months. However, with the dry spell through July, topsoil continues to dry out in Texas. The rainfall forecast over the next five days will not be heavy enough to cause significant runoff. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...Trinity Basin... ...Minor Flooding... Increased releases from Lewisville and Grapevine will push Carrolton into flood stage for the forecast period. This will be updated as further release information is acquired from the Corps on their projections over the next few days. ...Remainder of WGRFC Basins... The remainder of WGRFC rivers are below criteria, and no significant rainfall is expected over the forecast period. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org PHILPOTT $$


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