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135 AGUS74 KFWR 181557 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1056 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014 VALID APRIL 18 THROUGH APRIL 23 ...AN "APRIL SHOWERS" TYPE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... A fairly potent upper level storm formed over the Northern Gulf of Mexico and is moving into the Southeast Gulf Coast States. This has helped allow northerly winds to filter into the eastern half of Texas, keeping things cooler over the area. A weak upper level ridge over Texas will exert its influence over the next few days. A southerly flow will become more pronounced over the area, ushering in gulf moisture to the region. A weak upper level storm cross the U.S./Mexico border this weekend, and should provide enough upper level support for the development of showers and isolated thunderstorms for New Mexico and West Texas Saturday, spreading further east into the remainder of Texas Sunday and Monday. While moisture should be plentiful, the lack of a clear source of lift and less than favorable upper level dynamics should inhibit the development of organized thunderstorm complexes and/or significant precipitation. In summary, most of the WGRFC should see some rainfall, but no widespread heavy or significant rainfall is expected. The upper level storm should weaken and dissipate at it exits to the east on Tuesday. The next Pacific storm system will move into the Pacific Northwest later Tuesday, and could possibly bring a return of rain chances for the end of next week. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Saturday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for New Mexico and Far West Texas. For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for Far West Texas and Southern New Mexico. MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for the remainder of New Mexico, for Southern Colorado, and for most of Texas. For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for North Texas east of the Panhandle. Lighter MAP amounts are forecast for the remainder of Texas. For Monday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for the eastern half of Texas and for portions of New Mexico and Southern Colorado. The drought conditions have been deteriorating over the last several weeks over most of the region. Almost all of New Mexico and 82% of Texas remain in some level of drought category. In addition, 29% of Texas and 25% of New Mexico are in extreme drought. Statewide, in Texas, reservoirs are, on average, around 65% full. This is below average for this time of year, with average being about 80% full. There is considerable variability across the state, with many of the reservoirs in the western half of the state below 50% full. Due to the dry soil moisture conditions, the rainfall which is forecast the next 5 days will not be heavy enough to produce significant runoff. Mainstem river flooding is not expected. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...Sabine Basin... ...Minor Flooding... ToledoToledo Bend Reservoir has discontinued 24/7 full power generation until further notice. Higher flows from earlier releases are expected to keep the stage at Deweyville (DWYT2) sightly above minor flood stage through early Friday then begin to fall back to low flow conditions. ...Rio Grande Basin... ...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts... Amistad increased releases last week elevating flows along the mainstem from Amistad downstream to Falcon Lake. No significant impacts are expected, although the river at Columbia Bridge (CBBT2) is fluctuating above an action level for pumps and livestock in the area. The duration of Amistad releases is unknown at this time. ...Remainder of WGRFC Basins... No significant flooding is expected from rainfall forecast in the next 5 days. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org WALLER $$


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