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190 AGUS74 KFWR 061656 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1056 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016 VALID FEBRUARY 6 THROUGH FEBRUARY 11 ...ASIDE FROM SOME PRECIPITATION TODAY, A DRY SPELL OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... An rather strong upper air disturbance moved from the central Rockies across the Texas panhandle to north Texas the past 24 hours. This storm produced some snow across southeast Colorado the past 24 hours, and further east over Texas showers and a few thunderstorms developed over roughly the eastern half of the state. Since atmospheric moisture was limited all the rainfall amounts were around a half inch or less. This low will continue to produce some light rain over northeast Texas and western Louisiana for a few more hours, but most of the rain has already moved east of the WGRFC area. This storm should completely exit the WGRFC area by this evening and the remaining rainfall will end. No hydrologic impacts are occurring with this rainfall over the WGRFC area. A large high pressure system will form over the western U.S. Sunday, and this ridge will persist for several days. By Thursday this ridge will be approaching the Rocky Mountains. As a result, a northwesterly upper air flow will be the predominant weather feature over our region. This northwesterly upper air flow may have minor upper air disturbances rippling through it, but atmospheric moisture will be so limited that no precipitation will result. Therefore, the weather will be dry across the WGRFC area from this evening through at least Thursday. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Sunday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 of an inch are forecast over portions of northeast Texas. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over roughly the eastern third of Texas into western Louisiana. For Sunday into Monday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Monday into Tuesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Tuesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. Soil moisture continues to be above average in spite of the somewhat drier weather conditions of late. As a result, less rainfall than usual will be required for runoff to occur. This, along with the vegetation being dormant because we are in winter means runoff will occur faster. Over Texas, only 2% of the state is categorized as abnormally dry. Over New Mexico, 9% of the state is abnormally dry, and that is mostly confined to the western portions of the state. Precipitation over the next 5 days will not be heavy enough for significant runoff to occur. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...WGRFC Basins... Minor flood and higher flow conditions continue to subside on the Sabine and Trinity River basins. Flood control reservoirs within these basins continue to reduce lake levels keeping downstream flows higher, but within controlled design channel capacities. Sites above criteria are Deweyville (DWYT2) on the lower Sabine, Carrollton (CART2) on the Elm Fork River (Trinity Basin), and Moss Bluff (MBFT2) on the lower Trinity River. No significant rainfall is forecast in the next 5 days. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org STORY $$


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