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266 AGUS74 KFWR 271602 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1102 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014 VALID JULY 27 THROUGH AUGUST 1 ...PRECIPITATION FORECASTED TO RETURN FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WGRFC AFTER ONE LAST DAY UNDER THE RIDGE... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... The ridge will control most of the weather for the WGRFC area for today, keeping temperatures hot and the atmosphere dry for one more day. However, the front is on the way! Currently pushing through Oklahoma and moving south, the front is forecast to reach the WGRFC area in Texas later tonight. The New Mexico and southern Colorado parts of the WGRFC have already begun to see the impact of the front with precipitation starting yesterday afternoon and continuing to generate along the boundary. This precipitation is forecasted to continue out west today and slowly creep eastward as the front continues to move south. This will place a chance for precipitation over the northern Texas area tomorrow into tomorrow night. Forecasted rainfall is not expected to generate any flooding or aid in drought relief, but every drop is welcomed this time of year. The forecast is highly dependent on the location and intensity of the upper level trough that is located along the great lake region. The slower it moves keeping it further north and east the less likely any real significant rainfall will reach Texas. If the trough can dig southward and a west faster than models predict, there is a possibility for rainfall forecasted to impact Oklahoma reaching the north eastern portions of Texas. The current forecast though will keep rainfall to the north and surface flow switching back to the south starting Wednesday. This will bring higher humidity and moist air, but if the boundary stays too far north will simply feed Oklahoma more rainfall missing most of Texas. Isolated showers are still possible for localized areas of lift. As well, the monsoonal flow in New Mexico will also generate daily storms along the terrain through out the forecast period. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Monday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are possible in far northern New Mexico and southern Colorado. For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of isolated areas of 0.5 to an inch are possible for northern New Mexico and southern Colorado. As well, an isolated areas of 0.25 inches are possible for areas in North Texas. For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inches are forecasted for northern New Mexico as well as isolated portions of north Texas. For Wednesday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of up to 1 inch are forecasted by WPC for northeast Texas. 0.5 inches are in the forecast for most of north Texas with 0.25 extending to cover central and eastern Texas as well as most of New Mexico. Extreme to exceptional drought persists over parts of southwest Texas, as well as over the western parts of north Texas into the Texas Panhandle and northeast New Mexico. Statewide, less than 1% of New Mexico and about 3% of Texas are in exceptional drought. But, severe drought conditions are impacting 78% of New Mexico and 33% of Texas. The monsoonal rains in New Mexico have reduced the drought conditions over the past couple weeks, while over Texas the drought has diminished over roughly the southeast quarter. More rain is forecast the next 5 days over New Mexico which will help to ease the drought conditions, but over Texas rainfall amounts will be minimal and will be concentrated mainly along and near the Gulf coast. Therefore, no significant runoff is expected the next 5 days. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...WGRFC Basins... All WGRFC river forecast locations are flowing near or below for this time of year. Soil moisture conditions are continuing to dry across the area. No significant flooding is expected through the end of the forecast period. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org GIARDINO $$


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