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939 AGUS74 KFWR 191642 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1142 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014 VALID AUGUST 19 THROUGH AUGUST 24 ...THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER TEXAS THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT THE MONSOON CONTINUES OVER NEW MEXICO... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... A persistent upper air low pressure system continues to be located near the San Angelo area this morning. This disturbance has brought periods of showers and thunderstorms to southwest Texas and the Hill Country the past 24 hours. The heaviest rainfall of 4.00 inches was noted near Tarpley and Utopia. This upper low is forecast to drift slowly northeast. So over the next several hours, this feature is expected to continue moving over unstable air and combine with daytime heating. As a result, additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over portions of north central and central Texas. Rainfall amounts within this activity are expected to average 0.50 inch or less. Some locally higher amounts are possible within some areas. No significant mainstem river flooding is expected. By Wednesday the upper low is forecast to move over Oklahoma and will weaken. Therefore, the rainfall over Texas will diminish. An upper level ridge of high pressure is expected to slowly shift westward and strengthen over the northern Gulf of Mexico as a strong upper level system develops over southern California. The high will move over the lower Mississippi River valley through the week which will keep conditions very warm and dry for most of Texas. Elsewhere, monsoonal rainfall activity is forecast to continue over portions of New Mexico, especially by the end of the week as the upper low from California moves eastward. And the sea breeze will persist over the Gulf coast and southeast Texas during the afternoon hours each day for the next 5 days. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Wednesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast for portions of north central Texas, southwest Texas, and the Texas Hill Country. MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for portions of southern Colorado, roughly the western half of New Mexico, as well as from north central into southwest Texas. For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast for portions of southwest Texas. MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for portions of southern Colorado, southern New Mexico, southwest Texas, as well as along the middle and upper Texas Gulf coast into southern Louisiana. For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast for portions of southwest Texas. MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for portions of southwestern Colorado, northwest and southeast New Mexico, west Texas, and southeast Texas into southern Louisiana. For Friday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast for portions of far west Texas, southern New Mexico, and southern Colorado. MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for Colorado, New Mexico, far west Texas, and areas along and near the Texas and Louisiana Gulf coast. Extreme to exceptional drought persists over parts of southwest Texas, as well as over the western parts of north Texas into the Texas Panhandle and northeast New Mexico. Statewide, New Mexico is out of exceptional drought while less than 3% of Texas remains in exceptional drought. Severe drought conditions are impacting 43% of New Mexico and 35% of Texas. The monsoonal rains in New Mexico have eased the drought conditions over the past couple weeks. In Texas, the drought has diminished over roughly the southeast quarter. No widespread significant rainfall is forecast this week through the weekend, therefore no significant runoff is expected. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...WGRFC Basins... River conditions across the WGRFC remain near or below seasonal flows. Localized thunderstorm complexes in the Hill Country will add much needed water to the system, but no significant flooding is expected. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org STORY $$


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