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475 AGUS74 KFWR 231609 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1108 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016 VALID JULY 23 THROUGH JULY 28 ...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE WGRFC AREA THIS WEEKEND, WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... A ridge of high pressure at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere is centered over the Texas panhandle this morning. This ridge is forecast to remain in place for the majority of the region over the day or two. As a result, hot and dry conditions will remain the dominate weather over the WGRFC area. Hydrologically, we are experiencing drying soils after such a wet Spring. Over the next two days an isolated shower or two remains possible over southeast Texas into southern Louisiana, especially along the Gulf coast, due to the sea breeze front. And, isolated diurnal showers and thunderstorms will be fairly likely through the weekend over portions of western and northern New Mexico and south central Colorado, mainly due daytime heating and orographic lift near the mountains. Mean areal precipitation will be minimal. Starting Sunday and continuing into next week, the ridge of high pressure is forecast to shrink and shift slightly to the west as a couple of short wave troughs push eastward from the northwestern U.S. This shift will allow the rain chances to increase across parts of our region. The most favored area for rain will be over eastern Texas and Louisiana. An easterly wave of low pressure is forecast to move across Louisiana Sunday night and into east Texas on Monday. This, along with some moisture advection will lead to at least scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some rainfall amounts of over 1.00 inch are possible over the Toledo Bend country. By Tuesday the easterly wave will focus itself closer to the middle Texas Gulf coast. This wave, combined with the sea breeze front, will likely result in some scattered showers and thunderstorms for south Texas and the Gulf coast Tuesday into Thursday morning. The rain chances will also continue over parts of New Mexico and Colorado due to the monsoon. But elsewhere over Texas, especially the western parts of north Texas, very warm and dry weather will persist through mid-week. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Sunday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 of an inch are forecast for the San Juan Mountains in north central New Mexico. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast for the northwest two thirds of New Mexico, most of Colorado, the southeastern quarter of Texas and Louisiana. For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch are forecast for portions of southern Colorado into northern New Mexico, as well as over extreme east Texas into most of Louisiana. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast for most of New Mexico, much of Colorado, the eastern third of Texas and Louisiana. For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for portions of northern and western New Mexico into southern Colorado, as well as over the eastern third of Texas into most of Louisiana. The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 1.00 inch, are forecast over extreme southeast Texas into western Louisiana. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast for the eastern half of Texas, most of New Mexico, much of Colorado, and Louisiana. For Tuesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for portions of New Mexico into southern Colorado, as well as over south central and southeast Texas into southern Louisiana. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast for most of the remaining areas within the WGRFC area of responsibility. Soils continue to dry out across Texas due to the warm temperatures and a lack of significant rainfall. The U.S. Drought Monitor has categorized Texas as 13% abnormally dry, with almost 2% in moderate or greater drought. Over New Mexico, 77% of the state is abnormally dry, and 16% remains in the moderate drought category. Some rainfall is forecast over the next five days primarily over east Texas and western Louisiana. This will keep drought out of this region, but only minor runoff is anticipated. The lack of significant rainfall elsewhere will lead to continued drying in most areas through this forecast period and no significant runoff is expected. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...Trinity Basin... ...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts... Above normal flows continue on the Elm Fork of the Trinity River near Carrollton (CART2). Lake Lewisville and Lake Grapevine have decreased their releases, so CART2 has dropped to near action stage but is not forecast to drop below criteria this weekend. ...Brazos Basin... ...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts... Above normal flows continue along the lower Brazos River at Richmond (RMOT2). The elevated flows are expected to continue through the weekend. ...Remainder of WGRFC Basins... Higher than normal seasonal flows are occurring in the eastern half of the state. Some rain is expected across parts of the region over the next 5 days, but no significant river responses are expected over this time frame. Daily convective activity can cause minor rises anywhere in the forecast area, but most areas have little chance of seeing any significant convective activity over the next several days. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide STORY $$