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881 AGUS74 KFWR 201712 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1112 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014 VALID DECEMBER 20 THROUGH DECEMBER 25 ...PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK OVER THE WGRFC AREA... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... An upper level trough is beginning to develop over southwestern New Mexico. This system is expected to deepen over Texas Sunday into Monday. Another upper level trough is forecast to begin developing late Monday over the intermountain west. This system is expected to deepen as it moves eastward across the WGRFC area Tuesday and Wednesday. With this system, precipitation is possible over New Mexico and across north and central Texas. By Thursday, this upper level system is expected to move east of the WGRFC area. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Sunday morning, no significant Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inches are possible in the headwater region of the upper Rio Grande River Basin. For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inches are possible in the headwater region of the upper Rio Grande River Basin. For Tuesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. Moderate or worse drought conditions continue to be observed over parts of New Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about half the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (44%) and 10% has extreme to exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, nearly two thirds of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (65%) and 4% has extreme to exceptional drought conditions. Soils are generally dry enough such that forecast rainfall will generate mostly minor runoff. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...Lavaca-Navidad Basin... ...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts... Minor rises along some of the side channels and along the Tres Palacios have either crested or are near crest at this time. The river should return to base flow before the next rain event. ...Neches Basin... ...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts... Pine Island Bayou and other coastal tributaries have seen rises overnight as the rain shifts off to the east. No flooding is expected at this time, but recovery to baseflow will take some time since these streams tend to linger at higher levels after rain events. ...Remainder of WGRFC Basins... With the rain shifting to the east and several days before the next storm system moves into the region, there should be enough time for the smaller river systems that saw small rises to recover back to base flow before more rainfall arrives. No flooding is expected through the forecast period. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org SHULTZ $$


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