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457 AGUS74 KFWR 011558 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1057 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015 VALID APRIL 1 THROUGH APRIL 6 ...RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS NOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... Today, southerly flow will concentrate moisture across portions of Deep South and Southeast Texas, ahead of an approaching storm system moving eastward from Baja across the high terrain of northern Mexico. Abundant moisture across the area should allow some showers and thunderstorms to develop during the Wednesday into early Thursday time frame. Thursday, the upper level flow will become primarily zonal making way for clearer, drier conditions across the area before a stronger cold front pushes through the area on Friday. Models are suggesting some additional precipitation developing Friday afternoon through Saturday into Sunday morning with the frontal passage stretching from northern Mexico up through southeastern Texas to Louisiana. This system will continue to be monitored with the forecast models over the coming days and updates provided as necessary. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Thursday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch are forecast for basins along the Texas Gulf coast as well as far northeast Texas. For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Friday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Saturday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 are forecast for deep south Texas into Mexico and for the northeast quarter of Texas where the Neches basin is still experiencing flooding. Moderate or worse drought conditions continue across parts of New Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about a third of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (36%), and about 14% has extreme to exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, about two thirds of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (62%). Lake levels in these extreme drought areas are at or near historical lows for this time of year. Recent precipitation events have brought some drought relief, with no drought remaining over deep south, east central and southeast Texas into western Louisiana. The rainfall which is forecast the next five days over the WGRFC area will not be heavy enough to create new or additional runoff. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...Neches Basin... ...Minor Flooding... Sam Rayburn Reservoir has resumed power generation that will allow flood storage to be slowly evacuated. Lake Steinhagen releases will continue to hold near 19,000 CFS until Sam Rayburn Lake is able to completely evacuate the flood pool, likely via generation. This process is expected to take several weeks. As for the river flooding, all points are receding from crests earlier this week. Points along the upper Neches should drop below criteria over the next couple of days. Town Bluff will be longer due to the releases described above. ...Sabine Basin... ...Minor Flooding... Toledo Bend Reservoir is holding for the time being at 19,000 CFS. There is a pooling of water between the Bon Weir gage and the Deweyville gage which is causing the flow to be lower than expected at Deweyville. Also making it difficult to forecast flow and height accurately, but it is expected to remain in flood category as this water slowly works its way through the braided channel. ...Remainder of WGRFC Basins... Soils are slowly drying out as the rain has given eastern Texas a temporary reprieve Down south, some storms are expected to develop but move through the area quickly, therefore not producing significant rainfall totals. Significant flooding is not expected over the next five days. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org CAZIER $$


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