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076 AGUS74 KFWR 061650 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1049 AM CST FRI DEC 6 2013 VALID DECEMBER 6 THROUGH DECEMBER 11 ...WINTER STORMS WILL AFFECT THE WGRFC AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... A big trough of low pressure has produced significant high elevation snowfall from southern Colorado into northern New Mexico over the past 24 hours. Meanwhile a strong cold front has pushed southeastward across most of Texas. This system is causing sleet and freezing rain over much of northern and western Texas, with snow over southeast New Mexico and far west Texas. Actual precipitation totals have remained light to moderate over the past few hours from San Angelo northeast through the Metroplex and points northeast into Oklahoma. The upper level trough of low pressure will continue to move eastward allowing precipitation to continue through the day. But the trough is weakening and will exit the region later today. A second trough of low pressure is forecast to move across Idaho on Saturday. Well ahead of this storm, precipitation is again forecast to develop Saturday afternoon and evening in the cold air that will be in place, with the best chances over eastern Texas and Louisiana. More snow is also forecast to fall over the mountains of northern New Mexico and southern Colorado. The precipitation is forecast to linger over southeast Texas and Louisiana into Sunday morning as the weakening upper low moves over Colorado. Thereafter, as the storm passes off to our north dry air is forecast to move into the region. With the exception of northern New Mexico and southern Colorado, the precipitation is expected to end later Sunday, with mostly dry weather expected into Monday morning. A third upper air disturbance is forecast to move over the Colorado Rockies on Monday which will progress southeastward into Texas on Tuesday. Unlike the previous disturbances, moisture will be limited with this storm and widespread precipitation is not expected. But the cold air associated with this disturbance may generate a few snow flurries across parts of Texas. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Saturday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 of an inch are forecast for far east Texas. For Saturday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Sunday into Monday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Monday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch are forecast for far east and portions of southeast Texas The drought situation in Texas continues to improve with around 6% of the state in extreme drought in some isolated areas. New Mexico is improving as well with only 4% of that state in extreme drought, however all of New Mexico still remains in some level of drought category. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...Neches Basin... ...Minor Flooding... The upper Neches River remains in flood conditions from Neches (NCST2) through Alto (ATOT2) to Diboll (DIBT2). Downstream, along the mainstem and associated tributaries, higher non-flood flows are receding and levels are falling slowly. ...Sabine Basin... ...Minor Flooding... A significant winter event has entered north Texas bringing unseasonably cold weather with precipitation in the form of freezing rain and sleet. The temperatures have remained below freezing preventing any significant runoff. Meanwhile, Deweyville (DWYT2) on the Sabine River near Ruliff remains in minor flooding but has crested and is expected to begin receding in the next 24-36 hours. ...Brazos Basin... ...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts... Rainfall over the Clear Fork Brazos River near Roby (ROYT2) has caused a rapid rise to slightly above action stage overnight. ...Remainder of WGRFC Basins... The wintry storm system moved through the region overnight without producing significant runoff. The most likely scenario from this storm is to only produce precipitation in the form of freezing rain and sleet; therefore, no significant runoff is forecast from this system. All other rivers are at or below seasonal flows. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought CAZIER $$