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AGUS74 KFWR 181600
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1100 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

                     VALID MAY 18 THROUGH MAY 23

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...

                    ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
Only subtle changes are expected in the WGRFC weather pattern over
the next several days.  An upper level storm system will develop on
the northern end of a large scale upper level trough of low pressure
over the Rockies.  This storm system will deepen and intensify as it
slides east into the Northern Plains over the next few days.  With
most of the dynamics and development expected well north of the
WGRFC area, the overall pattern of an upper level trough over New
Mexico and a weak upper level ridge over Texas will change little
through Wednesday.

Disturbances in the resulting southwesterly flow, combined with the
added instability and added lift from daytime heating, could trigger
scattered showers and thunderstorm over the central portions of
Texas each afternoon and evening.

This pattern should continue through Tuesday as the previously
mentioned upper level storm over the Northern Plains will help push
a weak cold front/boundary through North Texas.  Shower and
thunderstorm activity will become more organized along this
boundary, with locally heavy rainfall possible over Northeast Texas.

At this time, it is doubtful if the weak front will be strong enough
to clear the coast.  Showers and thunderstorms could persist for
South and Southeast Texas well into the next week.

We will continue to monitor and will update accordingly.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Sunday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for Central and West
Central Texas, along with Southern Colorado.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are
forecast for Southern Colorado and for North Central and Central
Texas.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are
forecast for Southern Colorado and for North Central Texas.

For Tuesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 1 to 1.5 inches are
forecast for Northeast Texas.  MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are
forecast north and east of a line from Interstate 35 at the
Texas/Oklahoma border to the Heartland of Texas to Austin to
Houston.  Lighter MAP amounts are expected across Southern Colorado
and for the remainder of Texas east of a Childress to Del Rio line.

Even with the last couple of weeks of rains throughout Texas, the
ongoing drought remains entrenched across the entire WGRFC
area.  About 68 percent of Texas remains in severe drought, or
worse. In New Mexico, drought conditions are even more widespread,
with nearly 97 percent of the state in severe to exceptional
drought.   Localized runoff is possible in the stronger
thunderstorms.  Widespread significant runoff is not expected.
Widespread mainstem river flooding is not expected.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
All WGRFC forecast points are currently below criteria. No
significant flooding is expected over the next 5 days.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
 http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop 

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
 http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
 http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/drought_assessment.shtml 

WALLER


$$