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720 AGUS74 KFWR 061651 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1151 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015 VALID JULY 6 THROUGH JULY 11 ...FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES BRINGING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO NORTH TEXAS OVER NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... The upper level trough that is pulling the frontal boundary south is currently pushing through the upper northern plains. The front that extends over the majority of the central part of the United States is locally located in the panhandle regions of Oklahoma and Texas. Over the next 12 to 18 hours as it pushes south and east storms should generate along the boundary. These storms will have sufficient moisture from air that has been streaming in from the south all weekend pulling Gulf air into northern Texas and Oklahoma. The slow progression of this front will keep the rain in the area for 24 to 36 hours as some models have the front stalling slightly Tuesday evening. Rain chances in northern Texas will remain prevalent well into Wednesday before the front finally pushes far enough east to not be an impact to the WGRFC area. The primary threat area is forecasted to stay to the north of the river systems covered by the WGRFC. However, slight shifts to the forecast are possible and significant rainfall may slip into some areas that are still draining water from the heavy rainfall from May. However, the probability of significant widespread rainfall over the northern Trinity River is low at this time as Oklahoma and the Red River seem to be in for the majority of the heavy rainfall. Additionally, this does not appear to be the beginning of a rainfall pattern, as the ridge of high pressure will settle back into place after the front pushes out Wednesday bringing back dry and warm conditions for the northern portion of Texas. During this time, monsoonal rainfall over the New Mexico area should continue and possibly even be slightly enhanced, while the rest of the WGRFC will have just a slight chance of an isolated shower, particularly near the Gulf Coast. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Tuesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of For Thursday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of Many lakes, especially over the northeastern half of Texas, are full and are releasing water according to regulation rules and schedules. Soil moisture remains high across much of Texas from rainfall over the past two months. Rainfall over the next five days in primarily southeastern Texas may be enough to cause some runoff locally, but significant, widespread runoff is not expected. Rainfall intensities and potential runoff will be monitored. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...Trinity Basin... ...Minor Flooding... Flooding continues along the Trinity River mainstem. A wave of minor flooding is working its way down the middle Trinity River. Trinidad (TDDT2) has fallen to minor flood and Long Lake (LOLT2) is at minor flood levels and falling. Several north Texas lakes are making changes to releases to return to desired conservation pool levels. Riverside (RVRT2) has begun rising slightly into minor flood stage. Lake Livingston has been holding at 28,400 CFS outflow for several days, but an increase is possible this next week due to increasing inflows. For now, levels continue to fall downstream at Liberty (LBYT2) and Moss Bluff (MBFT2). ...Neches Basin... ...Minor Flooding... Minor flooding continues only on the Neches River near Town Bluff (TBFT2). There is still significant flood water in Sam Rayburn Reservoir which is above the flood pool; therefore releases will continue for several weeks and will keep Town Bluff within minor flood. ...Sabine Basin... ...Minor Flooding... Minor flooding continues at Mineola (MLAT2) and Deweyville (DWYT2). Toledo Bend Reservoir will not do any power generation today. This will create fluctuations in stage downstream at Burkeville and Bon Wier this week, ...Brazos Basin... ...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts... All locations along the river are now below minor flood levels. However, flows along the river system will remain elevated above normal because of the releases from the upstream lakes ...Guadalupe Basin... Canyon Lake has reduced releases which will lower the remaining forecasts as that reduced flow pushes downstream. Bloomington (DUPT2) has fallen below criteria. ...Remainder of WGRFC Basins... Monsoonal rains continue in New Mexico with some areal and flood" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">flash flooding where locally heavy rains occur from daily convective activity. Elsewhere, flows tend to be near seasonal with exceptions noted in specific basins. Refer to the Meteorological discussion for rain chances over the next 5 days. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org GIARDINO $$