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298 AGUS74 KFWR 251539 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1039 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014 VALID OCTOBER 25 THROUGH OCTOBER 30 ...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY BEFORE A PATTERN CHANGE BRINGS A CHANCE FOR RAIN NEXT WEEK... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... A ridge of high pressure continues to move eastward from the desert southwest. This strong dome of high pressure is centered over southwest Texas this morning, and as a result the weather across the WGRFC area has been dry the past 24 hours. This high will move across south Texas today and will flatten out and shift to the northern Gulf of Mexico by late Sunday. As a result, we will see little change in the dry conditions through the weekend for the WGRFC area, with unseasonably warm temperatures expected. By Monday the ridge of high pressure will be centered over Florida. This will allow an upper level trough, which is currently located off the Oregon coast, to move east. As the trough crosses the Rockies on Sunday night and Monday morning it will begin to impact the western portions of the WGRFC forecast area. This system may generate some precipitation over southern Colorado starting late Sunday as a cold front pushes into Colorado and New Mexico Sunday evening. Then this front is expected to move eastward into north Texas by Tuesday and will pass very slowly into central and northeast Texas by Wednesday morning. This front may bring increased chances for rain to northern and eastern Texas later Tuesday through Wednesday. At this point, heavy rainfall is not expected, and the larger amounts of precipitation are forecast northeast of our region. The progress of the system will be monitored and updates will be provided throughout the next several days. By Thursday morning a new ridge of high pressure is forecast to develop along and west of the Rocky Mountains. This will result in dry conditions again for the WGRFC area starting Thursday, and a return to more seasonal temperatures. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Sunday morning, no significant Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Sunday into Monday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over southwestern Colorado. For Monday into Tuesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over southern Colorado. For Tuesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over the eastern third of Texas and northern Louisiana. Moderate or worse drought conditions continue to be observed over parts of New Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about half the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (48%) and 11% has extreme to exceptional drought. In New Mexico, nearly two thirds of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (63%) and 8% has extreme to exceptional drought. Since no significant rainfall is forecast within the WGRFC forecast area through the next 5 days, no runoff is expected. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...WGRFC Basins... WGRFC river forecast points are currently near bankfull conditions. Rainfall forecasted over the next five days will not cause mainstem river flooding in the WGRFC area. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org STORY $$


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