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712 AGUS74 KFWR 241616 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1115 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 VALID JUNE 24 THROUGH JUNE 29 ...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHERN COLORADO AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... An upper level ridge of high pressure is currently elongated across the southern U.S. Around the periphery of this ridge, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms have occurred across Mexico, New Mexico, Colorado and northern Oklahoma. This ridge is not going to change its location much between now and Sunday so additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to occur today into the weekend, mainly over the mountains of New Mexico into southern Colorado and eastward into Oklahoma. In addition, there will be isolated showers and thunderstorms over south Texas and especially along the Gulf coast due to the sea breeze front each day. By Monday, the high pressure ridge will re-position itself over Utah. This will allow higher levels of moisture to begin moving into Texas from the Gulf of Mexico. Upper air disturbances will move southeast into northern and eastern Texas and western Louisiana which will bring showers and thunderstorms to that region. This rain is expected to last from Monday night into Wednesday morning. No significant precipitation is expected from these events, but isolated heavy downpours can be expected Tuesday over east Texas and western Louisiana. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Saturday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast over a small area of south central New Mexico. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast over southeast Texas and along the Texas Gulf Coast, over far west Texas into much of New Mexico, and southern Colorado. For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast over south central Texas, southern New Mexico, and northeast New Mexico. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast over the southern half of Texas, southwest Louisiana, over far west Texas into much of New Mexico, and southern Colorado. For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast over a small area over south central New Mexico. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast over southeast Texas and along the Texas Gulf Coast, southwest Louisiana, southwest Texas into much of New Mexico, and southern Colorado. For Monday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or more are forecast over the northeast third of Texas into Louisiana, a small area of far west Texas, parts of southwest and northern New Mexico, and a small part of southern Colorado. The heaviest rainfall of 1.00 inch is forecast over central Louisiana. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast over most remaining areas of the WGRFC area of responsibility. Soils continue to be moist across the majority of Texas. Only 1% of Texas is categorized as abnormally dry, with no moderate or greater drought noted. Over New Mexico, 77% of the state is abnormally dry, and 16% remains in the moderate drought category. Even though the soils are wet in Texas, significant runoff is not expected from any rainfall through this forecast period. Minor runoff may occur in far east Texas and the upper Texas Gulf coastal basins, but over the remainder of the WGRFC area little or no runoff will occur. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...Trinity Basin... ...Moderate Flooding... DFW area flood control reservoirs are now making flood storage evacuations that will keep elevated flows going down the mainstem passing through Lake Livingston for weeks to come. Lake Livingston may continue to pass inflows as the flood evacuations pass through the lake, this will keep the lower portion of the Trinity well above normal for an extended period with Liberty (LBYT2) staying in moderate flood level. ...Remainder of WGRFC Basins... Some minor flooding continues in the Brazos, Guadalupe, Neches, and Sabine river basins. The remaining river systems across the eastern portions of WGRFC area remain relatively wet. No significant rainfall is expected within the next 5 days that would generate significant river responses. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide STORY $$


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