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669 AGUS74 KFWR 031555 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1055 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016 VALID MAY 3 THROUGH MAY 8 ...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ANOTHER DAY OR TWO BEFORE A DRYING TREND BEGINS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... Scattered storms over East Texas yesterday left an area of around 2 inches near Toledo Bend Reservoir. Otherwise, a mostly sunny day for the rest of the West Gulf River Forecast Center area. There is another chance for a weak shortwave to generate some scattered showers over North and Central Texas. This is the only real chance for precipitation besides a scattered coastal shower or a brief precipitation in Southern Colorado. These dry conditions will dominate region Wednesday through early Saturday morning as a ridge of high pressure develops over the Rocky Mountains and moves eastward over Texas during the time period. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Wednesday morning, no significant Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Wednesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Friday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. Soils are now very moist across a good part of the state, especially the eastern portions. Texas is now categorized as being 13% abnormally dry, with 2% in the moderate drought category. Over New Mexico, almost the entire state remains in the abnormally dry category, and 44% is in moderate drought. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...Trinity Basin... ...Major Flooding... Both Cedar creek Reservoir and Lake Livingston are currently passing inflow from upstream runoff. These releases are generating moderate flood levels on the mainstem Trinity River at Trinidad (TDDT2) and Long Lake (LOLT2). Downstream, the Trinity River at Liberty (LBYT2) is forecast to rise into major flood levels by the middle of the week. For the upper Trinity, water supply reservoirs are passing inflows to maintain their conservation pools. Flood control reservoirs are also slowly evacuating their flood pools. This is keeping the mainstem of the Trinity and its tributaries well above normal. ...Sabine Basin... ...Major Flooding... Water continues to translate downstream on the Sabine River from upstream areas. This routed water is forecast to cause the Sabine River at Gladewater (GDWT2) to rise to major flood levels. Multiple other sites will remain elevated, continuing to rise into minor and moderate flood levels impacting local roadways and agriculture. Toledo Bend has recently increased their releases. This will also cause minor and moderate flooding downstream at various locations. ...San Jacinto Basin... ...Moderate Flooding... Additional rains have caused the East Fork San Jacinto to experience a sharp rise near New Caney (NCET2), The site crested slightly above major flood levels for a brief period and has now receded to moderate flood levels and still falling. Other sites are in slow recession at this time. ...Neches Basin... ...Moderate Flooding... Recent rainfall in the upper half of the Neches River Basin has pushed numerous forecast points into minor and moderate flood levels. Lakes remain full with flood storage being released from Sam Rayburn Reservoir. ...San Bernard Basin... ...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts... Heavy rain has slowed the recession within action stage for Sweeny (SWYT2) but should be below action stage over the next couple of days. ...Brazos Basin... ...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts... Higher than normal flows continue on the lower Brazos River due to recent heavy rainfall, but all locations are currently and forecast to stay below flood stage. Flood control reservoirs are slowly releasing their flood waters keeping the mainstem of the Brazos below Lake Whitney well above base flow. ...Remainder of WGRFC Basins... Soils remain wet over most of the WGRFC area, but a little break from rainfall is expected after the last of this rain event leaves the region. Next shot at significant rain will be this weekend. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide GIARDINO $$


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