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598 AGUS74 KFWR 221638 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1138 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014 VALID OCTOBER 22 THROUGH OCTOBER 27 ...A BRIEF SPELL OF WARM DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... An upper level ridge in eastern New Mexico is moving slowly east across the WGRFC forecast area. A few scattered showers and thunderstorms have left light amounts of rain over the eastern two thirds of the state. This disturbance continues to move east leaving some light rainfall amounts in far west Texas and the Panhandle. As this system moves east, rain chances increase in north Texas through Thursday morning. As this system exits the area, a subtropical high nudges in from the desert southwest. This strong dome of high pressure will be centered over central New Mexico by Friday afternoon. Thursday and Friday look mostly dry for the WGRFC area of responsibility as this upper level ridge builds from the west. Expect a transition to cooler weather as a dry cold front pushes through New Mexico on Sunday. The upper level trough currently located off the Oregon coast will begin to impact the WGRFC area as early as Monday. This upper level system will generate a weak cold front expected to pass through the area starting Monday evening. It is worth noting that this system could result in some upslope snowfall for northern and central New Mexico. The progress of the system will be monitored and updates provided throughout the forecast period. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Thursday morning, no significant Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Friday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Saturday into Monday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. Moderate or worse drought conditions continue to be observed over parts of New Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about half the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (48%) and 11% has extreme to exceptional drought. In New Mexico, nearly two thirds of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (63%) and 8% has extreme to exceptional drought. No significant rainfall is expected for most areas within the WGRFC forecast area through the next 5 days. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...Rio Grande Basin... ...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts... Rainfall over the past 2 days has pushed Candelaria (CDET2) above action stage and is expected to fall over the next few hours. Downstream the Rio Grande (PIOT2) is expected to rise above action stage over the next few days. This additonal flow should not impact points further downstream. ...Remainder of WGRFC Basins... All WGRFC river forecast points are at or below bankfull conditions. Rainfall forecasted in the next five days will not cause mainstem river flooding in the WGRFC area. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org CAZIER $$


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