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002 AGUS74 KFWR 101635 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1134 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014 VALID MARCH 10 THROUGH MARCH 15 ...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR DAY OR TWO OVER SOUTH TEXAS, BUT THE REST OF THE REGION WILL BE DRYING OUT... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... An upper level low pressure system is located over western Mexico this morning. This low will move eastward toward central Texas this afternoon and tonight. Well out ahead of this low, moisture increased over south Texas which caused rainfall to persist the past 24 to 36 hours. Rainfall amounts were in the half inch category around Brownsville and over parts of deep south Texas the past 24 hours. This system is expected to produce more precipitation from around Del Rio into south Texas this afternoon and tonight, then will shift up the upper Texas Gulf coast Tuesday morning as the low moves into western Louisiana. The remaining precipitation will move eastward from extreme southeast Texas into Louisiana as the low exits the region by Tuesday afternoon. There will be a return to a mostly zonal upper air flow as the upper low exits the area to the east Tuesday evening into mid-week. This will lead to dry weather over most of the WGRFC area. Forecast models indicate the potential for additional precipitation over Colorado and northern New Mexico Thursday as another upper air low pressure system forms over northern Arizona. But outside of northern New Mexico and southern Colorado, the WGRFC area will have dry conditions from Wednesday into Friday morning. On Friday the upper low to our west will begin to move eastward across Texas. By Saturday morning this trough will be east of our region. There is a chance for some light rain over east Texas and western Louisiana Friday as this trough moves through. Otherwise dry weather is expected for the end of the week. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Tuesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 inch or more are forecast for the southeast quarter of Texas and extreme southwestern Louisiana. The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 0.50 inch, are forecast over the middle Texas Gulf coast from near Corpus Christi to near Galveston TX. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over roughly the southern half of Texas and southern Louisiana. For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast for extreme southeast Texas and southern Louisiana. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over roughly the southeastern quarter of Texas and most of Louisiana, as well as over northern New Mexico and southern Colorado. For Wednesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Thursday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch are forecast over northern New Mexico. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over the northwestern third of New Mexico, most of Colorado, east Texas and western Louisiana. Almost all of New Mexico and 91% of Texas remain in some level of drought category. In addition, 9% of Texas and 23% of New Mexico are in extreme drought. The upper Rio Grande in south central Colorado is in the abnormally dry category. Statewide, in Texas, reservoirs are on average at 64% full. This is record lowest average reservoir storage for this time of year, with average being about 80% full. There is considerable variability across the state, with many of the reservoirs in the western half of the state below 50% full. Significant improvement in the drought is not expected in the short term for the WGRFC area, but some minor improvement is likely occurring from the middle Texas Gulf coast into parts of deep south Texas. The forecast precipitation totals are favorable for continued minor runoff along the Texas Gulf coast the next five days, but because of the dry soil moisture conditions the rainfall will not be heavy enough to produce enough runoff to produce mainstem river flooding. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...San Bernard Basin... ...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts... Locally heavy rainfall occurred this past weekend on the upper part of the San Bernard River Basin. Minor rises are occurring on the San Bernard River. The San Bernard River near East Bernard (EBBT2) is forecast to crest this evening at higher than normal river levels. ...Lavaca-Navidad Basin... ...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts... Locally heavy rainfall occurred this past weekend over parts of the Lavaca-Navidad River System. Minor rises are occurring on both the Navidad River and Sandy creek. The Navidad River near Morales (MRAT2) and Strane Park near Edna (LSNT2) are forecast to crest later today at higher than normal river levels. Sandy creek near Cordele (CODT2), is currently near its crest and is expected to begin falling later today. ...Remainder of WGRFC Basins... Rainfall occurred this past weekend primarily over South Texas and along and near the Texas Gulf Coast. Although some of the rivers there experienced minor rises, these river levels remained below criteria levels. Additional rainfall is forecast over the next 24 hours along the Texas Gulf Coast. Although minor rises are possible, river levels are still expected to remain below criteria levels. Therefore, no significant flooding is forecast for the next 5 days. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org STORY $$