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866 AGUS74 KFWR 291521 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1021 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016 VALID JULY 29 THROUGH AUGUST 3 ...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF MONSOONAL SHOWERS IN NEW MEXICO... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... A very slow eastward progression of the center of the upper level high pressure dome will begin over the next couple of days. A steady increase in the amount of shower and thunderstorm activity can be expected through the weekend for much of New Mexico. Tonight and Saturday morning another complex of storms is expected to develop across parts of KS and OK once again. However, the flow aloft is expected to become more westerly as the upper ridge begins to build across TX. This flow is expected to supply enough atmospheric moisture to allow for spotty convective activity from the Wichita Falls area down to Del Rio hitting the western portions of the Hill Country this afternoon. Scattered isolated thunderstorms will continue along the coast from the sea breeze as well, all of which are not expected to generate any flooding. Scattered isolated thunderstorms will also continue along the coast from the sea breeze which is not expected to generate any significant flooding. By Sunday the upper ridge will begin redeveloping directly over the Southern Plains. This will effectively bring an end to our rain chances in Texas for several days. Monsoonal activity over New Mexico and Southern Colorado is expected to continue on a limited basis as the ridge will limit the higher rain producing monsoonal activity. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Saturday morning, no significant Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch are forecast for portions of New Mexico mostly isolated to the Rio Grande valley and along the Texas southeast coastal basins. For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch are forecast for portions of New Mexico mostly isolated to the upper Rio Grande valley. For Monday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch are forecast for portions of the western half of New Mexico mostly isolated to the upper Rio Grande valley. Soils continue to dry out across Texas due to the warm temperatures and a lack of significant rainfall. The U.S. Drought Monitor has categorized Texas as 13% abnormally dry, with almost 2% in moderate or greater drought. Over New Mexico, 77% of the state is abnormally dry, and 16% remains in the moderate drought category. Some rainfall is forecast over the next five days primarily over east and southeast Texas and western Louisiana. This will keep drought conditions from developing in this region, but only minor runoff is anticipated. The lack of heavy rainfall elsewhere will lead to continued drying through this forecast period and no significant runoff is expected. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...WGRFC Basins... Higher than normal seasonal flows are occurring in the eastern half of Texas. Some rain is expected across parts of the region over the next five days, but no significant river flooding is expected over this time frame. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide CAZIER $$


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