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057 AGUS74 KFWR 241605 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1104 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016 VALID AUGUST 24 THROUGH AUGUST 29 ...RAINS TO CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH FOCUS ON THE MONSOONAL ACTIVITIES IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE WGRFC... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... The upper level low over Arizona has remained in place for the past two days but is starting to slowly drift east into south-central Colorado this morning. Enough atmospheric moisture and diurnal heating will help generate another round of showers and thunderstorms across portions of the New Mexico as the monsoonal activity continues. Areas east of the trough will be most favored for afternoon thunderstorm development. Storms will favor the higher terrain on either side of the Rio Grande and spread northeast into the evening hours. A back door cold front is still on track to reach New Mexico later today advancing east into the Rio Grande Valley and training northeast across the Transpecos region. Additional low level moisture will enhance the likelihood of an uptick in storm coverage through Friday with locally heavy rain and a moderate increase in localized flash flood potential. Several inches of rain has fallen across the region since Tuesday evening. Flash flooding will be the main concern as rain falls over already saturated ground. A large subtropical ridge over the Southeast U.S. will keep the trough from moving east very quickly so storm chances will linger through the week. The potential for heavy rain should be monitored as a high levels of atmosphere moisture remains in place through the weekend. North and Central Texas should continue to see a relatively dry pattern for much of the week, as the subtropical upper high over the southeast Continental US continues to expanding westward over the area. The upper level high will continue expanding west over North and Central Texas through Thursday allowing for a few days of drier and warmer weather. A drying trend will begin Sunday, then intensify roughly the first half of the work week. High pressure off Baja California is forecast to build toward New Mexico and camp out for at least a while over the four corners area by midweek next week. Since there will continue to be high amounts of atmospheric moisture present from the eastern Pacific the latter half of this week, diurnal showers and thunderstorms will be possible especially across northwestern and far west Texas into eastern New Mexico. Also by Friday morning, an easterly wave of low pressure may bring a chance for showers to southeast Texas and most of Louisiana. Then by Saturday this wave may produce some rain over the entire eastern third of Texas. The heaviest amounts of rain are expected over west Texas and eastern New Mexico from Thursday into Saturday. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Thursday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch are forecast for a narrow band extending from the Rio Conchos in northern Mexico northeast through Presidio and through the Texas Panhandle. For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch are forecast for a narrow band extending from the Rio Conchos and north northeast through the eastern half on New Mexico and far west Texas though the Texas Panhandle. The same is forecast for a small portion of southeast Texas extending into all of Louisiana. For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.50 of an inch are forecast for a small portion of northern Texas and MAP amounts 0.25 of an inch are forecast for the Transpecos region between El Paso and the Big Bend Park and points north and for the eastern half of Texas. For Saturday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch are forecast for the Big Bend region, the southeast quarter of New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle, and for the Texas coast from Matagorda Bay through Houston. After the widespread rain the past seven days over parts of New Mexico and Texas, drought conditions have eased somewhat. The U.S. Drought Monitor has categorized Texas as 29% abnormally dry, with less than 1% in severe drought. Over New Mexico, 88% of the state is abnormally dry, and 24% remains in the moderate drought category. The showers and thunderstorms forecast this week will keep more serious drought conditions from developing over the WGRFC region, while many sections continue drought-free. Since topsoil has become moister, some runoff is possible where the heaviest rain is forecast. However, as the weather dries out some this week most of the runoff will be insignificant across the majority of the WGRFC area. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...Guadalupe Basin... ...Moderate Flooding... Lower end of the Guadalupe River continues to move flood waters to the Gulf. Sandies creek (WHOT2) has crested and is expected to fall below minor flood later today. The Guadalupe at Victoria (VICT2) has crested and will continue to stay elevated as water from upstream works through the area. Bloomington (DUPT2) still on the rise but should crest later today in moderate flood before receding. ...San Antonio Basin... ...Moderate Flooding... The San Antonio River at Runge (SRRT2) has crested and is falling rapidly. That water has reached Goliad (GLIT2) and should be cresting later today in moderate flood before receding rapidly as well. ...Nueces Basin... ...Moderate Flooding... The upper Nueces basin continues to deal with the heavy rainfall that fell over the weekend which will create out of bank flow at a few sites. Atascosa River at Whitsett (WTTT2) is on its way down after cresting in major flood yesterday. The Nueces River at Three Rivers (THET2) is in moderate flood now and should crest shortly before a fairly rapid recession over the next couple of days. ...Trinity Basin... ...Minor Flooding... Out of bank to minor flooding continues (BOYT2) in the upper West Fork of the Trinity River from releases from Bridgeport. This should continue for the next several days. ...Brazos Basin... ...Minor Flooding... Middle Yegua creek near Dime Box (DMYT2) remains in minor and will continue a slow fall. The Brazos River at Hempstead (HPDT2) has crested and is falling with Richmond expected to crest later this week in action stage. No further rises are expected. ...Remainder of WGRFC Basins... Rainfall has tapered off for the area, so all other sites will remain in bank and on the recession as water works its way downstream. Soils are back to being fairly saturated which will lead to more frequent flooding if rainfall were to occur over the next 5 days. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide CAZIER $$


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