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203 AGUS74 KFWR 181600 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1100 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013 VALID MAY 18 THROUGH MAY 23 ...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... Only subtle changes are expected in the WGRFC weather pattern over the next several days. An upper level storm system will develop on the northern end of a large scale upper level trough of low pressure over the Rockies. This storm system will deepen and intensify as it slides east into the Northern Plains over the next few days. With most of the dynamics and development expected well north of the WGRFC area, the overall pattern of an upper level trough over New Mexico and a weak upper level ridge over Texas will change little through Wednesday. Disturbances in the resulting southwesterly flow, combined with the added instability and added lift from daytime heating, could trigger scattered showers and thunderstorm over the central portions of Texas each afternoon and evening. This pattern should continue through Tuesday as the previously mentioned upper level storm over the Northern Plains will help push a weak cold front/boundary through North Texas. Shower and thunderstorm activity will become more organized along this boundary, with locally heavy rainfall possible over Northeast Texas. At this time, it is doubtful if the weak front will be strong enough to clear the coast. Showers and thunderstorms could persist for South and Southeast Texas well into the next week. We will continue to monitor and will update accordingly. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Sunday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for Central and West Central Texas, along with Southern Colorado. For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for Southern Colorado and for North Central and Central Texas. For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for Southern Colorado and for North Central Texas. For Tuesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 1 to 1.5 inches are forecast for Northeast Texas. MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast north and east of a line from Interstate 35 at the Texas/Oklahoma border to the Heartland of Texas to Austin to Houston. Lighter MAP amounts are expected across Southern Colorado and for the remainder of Texas east of a Childress to Del Rio line. Even with the last couple of weeks of rains throughout Texas, the ongoing drought remains entrenched across the entire WGRFC area. About 68 percent of Texas remains in severe drought, or worse. In New Mexico, drought conditions are even more widespread, with nearly 97 percent of the state in severe to exceptional drought. Localized runoff is possible in the stronger thunderstorms. Widespread significant runoff is not expected. Widespread mainstem river flooding is not expected. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...WGRFC Basins... All WGRFC forecast points are currently below criteria. No significant flooding is expected over the next 5 days. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/drought_assessment.shtml WALLER $$