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591 AGUS74 KFWR 241601 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1100 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014 VALID APRIL 24 THROUGH APRIL 29 ...ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH RAINFALL CHANCES INCREASING LATE SUNDAY FOR FAR EAST TEXAS... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... A cold front is passing through Texas this morning with strong northwest winds behind it. Satellite imagery shows a fine line of clouds developing along the leading edge of the front. Thunderstorms are possible along this line but no widespread convective activity is anticipated for the remainder of the morning. There is a possibility of storms developing along the Texas coast as the cold front encounters moist offshore winds later this afternoon. Southerly winds return tomorrow as the front leaves the region. Starting later this weekend, there is the chance of widespread significant rainfall for the WGRFC area. The more reliable meteorological models have consistently advertised well-organized stronger Pacific storm moving across the California Coast and cross the Desert Southwest this weekend. These models are showing a favorable environment for the development of heavy rainfall over the eastern two thirds of the WGRFC area starting Sunday, and staying in the forecast through Monday. As this system approaches from the northwest, a dryline is expected to provide enough lift by the late afternoon to trigger severe storms with associated hail and damaging winds. As the upper level low nears north Texas on Sunday convective activity will be possible to the east of the dryline. The models are suggesting moderately heavy rainfall amounts in far northeast Texas late Sunday evening into Monday morning. We will continue to monitor this event and update accordingly. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Friday morning, no significant Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Friday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 are forecast for a narrow band from Del Rio north through Wichita Falls into Oklahoma. For Sunday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 2.00 inches are forecast for the eastern quarter of Texas with the heaviest amounts near Nacogdoches and northeastward into Louisiana and Arkansas. The drought conditions continue to deteriorate over most of the region. Almost all of New Mexico and 82% of Texas remain in some level of drought category. In addition, 29% of Texas and 25% of New Mexico are in extreme drought. Statewide, in Texas, reservoirs are, on average, less than 65% full. This is below average for this time of year, with average being about 80% full. There is considerable variability across the state, with many of the reservoirs in the western half of the state below 50% full. Due to the dry soil moisture conditions, the rainfall forecast over the next 5 days will not be heavy enough to produce significant runoff. Mainstem river flooding is not expected. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...Rio Grande Basin... ...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts... Amistad releases are elevating flows along the mainstem from Amistad downstream to Falcon Lake. No significant impacts are expected, although the river at Columbia Bridge (CBBT2) is fluctuating above an action level that may affect pumps and livestock in the area. The duration of Amistad releases is unknown at this time. ...Remainder of WGRFC Basins... No significant flooding is expected from rainfall forecast in the next 5 days. An event expected toward the end of the five day period across eastern Texas is being monitored, but timing and location shifts each model run make local forecast determinations difficult and uncertain. However, with our best predictions on expected rainfall, no significant river flooding is expected, although localized river responses with action and flood stage are possible within the Sabine and Neches River systems; primarily within headwater streams and tributaries. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org CAZIER $$


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