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667 AGUS74 KFWR 121521 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1020 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 VALID OCTOBER 12 THROUGH OCTOBER 17 ...COLD FRONT EXPECTED TUESDAY REACHING THE COASTAL BASINS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... The closed low over Baja California is still drifting slowly to the northwest. This is allowing drier air to invade most of our forecast area allowing for warmer than normal temperatures over the region. As the low begins moving north along the California coast, the heaviest rainfall amounts will remain confined to portions of northern Mexico through the next few days. This shift west will allow an upper level trough to dig deeper into the Ohio River Valley bringing another round of moisture to our eastern and southeast boundaries Tuesday morning extending into deep south Texas by the afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible as an associated weak cold front moves into the Gulf during this time. Later in the week our attention will return to the closed low that will begin to work its way back into the region. This system may bring chances of rain into the forecast near the end of the coming week mostly to New Mexico. Some higher elevations in northern New Mexico and Colorado may see a dusting of snow with this system as it stalls briefly over western and central portions to New Mexico. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Tuesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch are forecast for the Tyler Texas area into Louisiana and the Corpus Christi area hugging the coast from Galveston to Brownsville. For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch are forecast along the coast from Victoria down to Brownsville. For Wednesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Thursday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. Drought conditions have returned to a good part of Texas. Only the Gulf coast, far west Texas and the panhandle are free from abnormally dry conditions. Topsoil moisture has decreased over the past month, which means it will require more rainfall to fall for runoff to occur. In Texas 70% of the state is abnormally dry, with 25% in severe drought. In New Mexico, 42% of the state is also abnormally dry. Some beneficial rainfall will occur from central and southeast New Mexico into the southwest third of Texas the next several days, and some runoff will likely occur. Elsewhere, the rainfall forecast over the next five days will not be heavy enough to cause significant runoff. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...Nueces Basin... ...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts... Runoff from the very heavy rain event last week has finally arrived at the Asherton (ASRT2) gauge. The river is expected to crest near flood stage, but no further flood risk is expected down stream since the wave of water will slowly attenuatre as it pushes further downstream. ...Remainder of WGRFC Basins... Points along the Rio Grande between Amistad and Falcon continue to recover from the heavy rain event a few days ago. Elsewhere, rivers are at baseflow and are not expected to see rises through the period. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org CAZIER $$