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517 AGUS74 KFWR 291547 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1047 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015 VALID AUGUST 29 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 3 ...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO THE NEXT 5 DAYS, BUT ONLY LIGHT RAIN ELSEWHERE... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... The weak trough in the overall ridge did bring some precipitation over the past 24 hours to the northern Texas region, but has since dissipated as the weakness has pushed eastward. The large scale upper level ridge remains firmly in place over the Rockies, with the surface high centered over southern Colorado. This will limit the shower and monsoonal activity keeping the WGRFC domain dry over the weekend. There is the possibility of a stray shower in western New Mexico or near the coast depending on the available moisture streaming in from the south. The first real chances for a change in pattern will come mid next week as the GFS model proposes a TUTT low developing over the western Gulf of Mexico. This would allow more lift along the coastal region which will generate some coastal showers mid next week. These showers should not push to far inland and no flooding is expected. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Sunday morning, no significant Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Sunday into Monday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inches are forecasted for far northern New Mexico and southern Colorado. For Tuesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inches are forecasted for the Gulf Coast region. Drought conditions are returning to a good part of the southeast two thirds of Texas. Topsoil moisture has decreased during the past month or so, thus it will take more rainfall for runoff to occur. In Texas 41% of the state is abnormally dry, with 6% in severe drought. In New Mexico, 51% of New Mexico is also abnormally dry. The rainfall forecast over the next five days will not be heavy enough to cause significant runoff. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...Trinity Basin... ...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts... Lower sustained releases from Lewisville and Grapevine will keep Carrollton near action stage criteria levels through the forecast period. These flood control reservoirs, along with Ray Roberts, continue to slowly evacuate the flood storage accumulated this past May and June during heavy rainfall episodes. ...Remainder of WGRFC Basins... The remainder of WGRFC rivers are below criteria. The precipitation forecast over the next couple days is not expected to create significant issues. Dry soil conditions continue across most of Texas. Lake levels continue to remain near conservation or within flood pools for much of north and east Texas while most west Texas reservoirs are well below conservation. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org GIARDINO $$


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