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751 AGUS74 KFWR 011706 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1106 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015 VALID DECEMBER 1 THROUGH DECEMBER 6 ...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK.... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... Very light precipitation developed early this morning along the southeast Texas coast. Amounts are averaging less than 0.10 inch per hour, and this trend should continue the remainder of the day. No additional significant precipitation is expected through the end of the week. Drier air should cover a good part of the WGRFC area, but some additional light rainfall development can be expected from deep south Texas into southeast Texas and Louisiana through tomorrow as the dry air undercuts the lingering moisture. Also, an upper air disturbance will develop and approach Texas from the northwest. As this upper disturbance crosses Texas the rainfall will linger along and near the Texas Gulf coast. After this disturbance moves east of the WGRFC area on Thursday all the precipitation should push east of our region. A ridge of high pressure is forecast to approach our region from the west on Thursday, and this ridge will move across Texas on Friday into Saturday morning. As a result, dry weather is forecast Thursday through Saturday morning. By Sunday, another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to return over the WGRFC region. An upper level disturbance is forecast to move across the Central Plains early Sunday morning. This may result in some showers and thunderstorms developing over the northern portions of the area on Sunday and Monday. This event is still several days away, however we will continue to monitor and update accordingly of any changes in this pattern. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Wednesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 inch or less is forecast for portions of the southeast Texas coast. For Wednesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Friday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. Topsoil moisture is very high due to recent rainfall events, which means it will require less rainfall for runoff to occur. That, along with the vegetation being dormant now that the growing season has ended, means runoff will be quicker. Over Texas only 7% of the state is abnormally dry, while over New Mexico, 26% of the state is abnormally dry. The rainfall forecast through the next five days will not lead to any additional runoff in spite of the wet soil moisture conditions and the cold season vegetation patterns. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...Trinity Basin... ...Major Flooding... The upper portion of the Trinity River system above Dallas (DALT2) is recovering from the heavy rain event over the Thanksgiving weekend. All points above and including Dallas are now below moderate flood levels and falling. Flood control reservoirs are still slowly rising and are very full at this time. Releases from these reservoirs are expected to begin later this week as the initial Flood Wave moves downstream opening room for additional flows. The main Flood Wave is now past Rosser (RSRT2) and has arrived at Trinidad (TDDT2) which has again risen over major flood category. Chambers creek (RCET2) is recovering as well and will drop out of moderate flood level today. Richland Chambers reservoir has peaked and should be able to reduce release later this week. All of this water should push the Trinity River near Long Lake/Oakwood (LOLT2) into moderate flood level by the weekend and Crockett(CRKT2) into flood stage next week. With all this water making its way down the mainstem, the Lake Livingston area will see another round of high water starting later this week, but because this rain event happened over many of the flood control lakes in the DFW area, the forecast is for the river to not rise as much as this last event. ...Brazos Basin... ...Moderate Flooding... Significant rainfall has generated rises on the Brazos River basin. At this time, moderate river flooding is occurring on the Leon River at De Leon (DLLT2). Minor river flooding is also forecast to occur on the Navasota River near Easterly (EAST2) and on the Leon River at Gatesville (GAST2). Continued higher flows are occurring along parts of the mainstem Brazos River and tributaries. ...Sabine Basin... ...Moderate Flooding... The rain is over and is making its way down the mainstem. The main wave is at Mineola now and will pour into Lake Fork who is pulling back slightly on their releases seeing the end of the rain. Downstream of Lake Fork the release wave during the rainfall will keep or place sites in moderate flood at Quitman, Hawkins, and Gladewater. Toledo Bend will soak up most of the wave so little impact is expected for the rest of the river. ...Neches Basin... ...Minor Flooding... Widespread rainfall during the holiday weekend across the upper Neches basins has generated minor flooding along the mainstem from Lake Palestine and Neches (NCST2) to Diboll (DIBT2). ...Remainder of WGRFC Basins... Elsewhere, river flows are normal to above normal for this time of year. No additional rainfall is expected during the next 5 days. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: National Precipitation Analysis: The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: The US Drought Assessment: The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: MCCANTS $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.