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725 AGUS74 KFWR 181637 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1037 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014 VALID DECEMBER 18 THROUGH DECEMBER 23 ...PRECIPITATION CONTINUES OVER NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... An upper level trough along the Pacific coast is deepening as it moves to the east. This system is expected to continue to generate upper level disturbances that will bring widespread precipitation across New Mexico and Texas through Saturday morning. For New Mexico, another trough will pass eastward today over the state leaving additional snow at higher elevations by the time it leaves the state. The most favorable areas for precipitation remain focused on the central parts of the state. For Texas, light scattered showers and drizzle are slowly moving east with light rain remaining possible mainly for the I-35 corridor and points east. The Hill Country and points to the south including Corpus Christi and points east northeast to the Louisiana border are expected to receive the heaviest amounts into Friday. The following 24 hours from Friday into Saturday, the eastern third of Texas will be the focus of the next round of precipitation. This period may see rainfall totals in the 1-3 inch range. The next potential for precipitation is Monday and Tuesday over north central New Mexico and over the northern portions of Texas. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Friday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 2.00 inches are forecast for central and southeastern Texas with the heaviest amounts hugging the coast from Victoria to Beaumont. For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 2.00 inches are forecast for the eastern third of Texas from the I-35 corridor east to the Louisiana border. Amounts increase in intensity from west to east. For Saturday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Sunday into Tuesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. Moderate or worse drought conditions continue to be observed over parts of New Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about half the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (43%) and 10% has extreme to exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, nearly two thirds of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (65%) and 4% has extreme to exceptional drought conditions. Soils are generally dry enough such that forecast rainfall will generate mostly minor runoff. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...WGRFC Basins... Rainfall amounts have been slow and steady replenishing much needed soil moisture. Rainfall over the next day or so is expected to continue to provide beneficial moisture. No flooding is expected through the forecast period. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org CAZIER $$


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