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705 AGUS74 KFWR 201541 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1040 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014 VALID APRIL 20 THROUGH APRIL 25 ...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF BY MID WEEK... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... An upper level storm system will "open up" as it ejects into the Central Plains. As this storm weakens, its influence on the precipitation patterns will diminish. The focus for showers and thunderstorms will shift from North Central Texas to Northeast Texas by Monday. An upper level ridge will form in the wake of the exitting storm system. Precipitation chances will decrease for Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain chances will increase slightly by the end of the week. A strong Pacific storm will move into the Pacific Northwest Tuesday and will cross the Northern Plains as the week progresses. This storm system should help flatten the upper level ridge in place over the WGRFC area. With this set up, daytime heating should help initiate the development of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening starting Thursday. With no large scale focus, widespread significant precipitation is not expected. The next, best chance for significant precipitation is beyond the scope of this forecast. A strong Pacific storm is expected to move onto the California next weekend. Depending on the path and strength of this latter system, precipitation chances will increase across the WGRFC area for the weekend. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Monday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for North Central Texas. Lighter MAP amounts are forecast for the remainder of Texas and for Eastern New Mexico. For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for Northeast Texas. Lighter MAP amounts are expected across the remainder of the eastern half of Texas. For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Wednesday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. The drought conditions have been deteriorating over the last several weeks over most of the region. Almost all of New Mexico and 82% of Texas remain in some level of drought category. In addition, 29% of Texas and 25% of New Mexico are in extreme drought. Statewide, in Texas, reservoirs are, on average, less than 65% full. This is below average for this time of year, with average being about 80% full. There is considerable variability across the state, with many of the reservoirs in the western half of the state below 50% full. Due to the dry soil moisture conditions, the rainfall which is forecast the next 5 days will not be heavy enough to produce significant runoff. Mainstem river flooding is not expected. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...Rio Grande Basin... ...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts... Amistad releases are elevating flows along the mainstem from Amistad downstream to Falcon Lake. No significant impacts are expected, although the river at Columbia Bridge (CBBT2) is fluctuating above an action level for pumps and livestock in the area. The duration of Amistad releases is unknown at this time. ...Remainder of WGRFC Basins... No significant flooding is expected from rainfall forecast in the next 5 days. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org WALLER $$


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