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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1126 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015
VALID: JANUARY 24 THROUGH JANUARY 29
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WGRFC AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...

The low pressure system that moved across Texas the past 24 hours is located well east of the WGRFC area this morning. Widespread precipitation occurred with this storm, resulting in minor flooding on some of the rivers over roughly the southeast third of Texas. Residual light precipitation fell the past 24 hours across central and east Texas into Louisiana. The heaviest rain the past 24 hours was near Austin where amounts of around 0.50 inch were noted. By last evening the precipitation exited Texas to the east as the upper level low accelerated into Louisiana.

A strong northerly flow of air has brought dry conditions into the WGRFC area. Mild and dry weather should continue as this flow persists through the weekend. An upper air disturbance will be passing to the northeast of our region Sunday morning, but no precipitation will occur.

A ridge of high pressure will build over the intermountain region later Sunday into Monday. This ridge will move eastward and will be over Texas by Tuesday morning. As a result a dry northerly air flow will continue and Texas will be free of precipitation.

During the day Tuesday a low pressure system will move northward into the western states. Thereafter, this low will weaken and move eastward across the central Rockies and the central plains. This may bring some precipitation to parts of far west Texas and New Mexico as early as Monday night, then over northern New Mexico and Colorado Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Otherwise dry weather will continue.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Sunday morning, no significant Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Sunday into Monday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Monday into Tuesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over the southwest half of New Mexico into far west Texas.

For Tuesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over southern Colorado and northern New Mexico, as well as over parts of northeast Texas.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue across parts of New Mexico and Texas. In Texas, almost half the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (41%), and 11% has extreme to exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, nearly two thirds of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (65%), and 4% has extreme to exceptional drought conditions. Outside of east and southeast Texas, soils are generally dry. The current precipitation forecast the next five days will not be heavy enough to produce new or additional runoff.

...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...Trinity Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Some runoff is still being experienced over the middle and lower sections of the Trinity River basin. Bedias creek near Madisonville (MDST2) has crested slightly above minor flood criteria. No other locations are expected to reach criteria levels.

...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Minor flooding is occurring on the Neches River near Dibol (DIBT2). The Angelina River near Lufkin (LUFT2) is also expected to remain in minor criteria for a few days. Attoyac Bayou near Chireno (ATBT2) has risen to minor flood levels and predicted to rise over the next few days to near 17 feet and crest. Ayish Bayou near San Augustine (AYIT2) has crested near 13 feet and is slowly falling. Pine Island near Sour Lake (SOLT2) has risen slightly above action stage and is expected to continue its rise slightly above minor flood criteria over the next few days.

...Brazos Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Moderate rainfall over the lower portions of the Brazos has produced enough runoff to cause several points to rise above bankfull levels. The Brazos River near Bryan (BBZT2) is cresting slightly above 24 feet and is expected to remain above criteria for several days. The Middle Yegua creek near Dime Box (DMYT2) has crested slightly below minor flood criteria and is currently receding. The East Yegua creek near Dime Box (DEYT2) has risen above bankfull and should begin receding quickly at the beginning of the week. Davidson creek near Lyons (LYNT2) has crested and is slowly receding. These rains have also helped Lake Limestone rise about a foot over the past couple of days. It should reach its conservation pool level in a couple of days. The Navasota River at Old Spanish Rd. near Normangee (NGET2) is above action stage criteria and still on the rise. It should crest in the next couple of days slightly below 14 feet then recede. The Brazos River near Hempstead (HPDT2) is still rising from upstream runoff. This location should crest below 34 feet early next week. The Brazos River downstream at Richmond (RMOT2) is starting to rise and is expected to rise above action stage Sunday afternoon. The crest is forecast to be near 30 feet by Monday afternoon.

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The Sabine River at Deweyville (DWYT2) remains steady above minor criteria at this time based on reservoir releases upstream.

...Guadalupe Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
The Guadalupe River at Gonzales (GNLT2) has crested slightly above action stage overnight and is currently falling.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
All other forecast locations are at or near seasonal flows with no additional flooding expected over the next 5 days.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook


...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

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