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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1053 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016
VALID: FEBRUARY 7 THROUGH FEBRUARY 12
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...A DRY SPELL OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK...

A rather strong upper air disturbance moved from north Texas to northern Florida past 24 hours. This storm produced showers and a few thunderstorms over roughly the eastern third of the state into western Louisiana. Since atmospheric moisture was limited all the rainfall amounts were around a half inch or less. This storm exited the WGRFC area last evening and the rainfall ended.

A large high pressure system is forming along the west coast of the U.S. this morning. This ridge will persist and move slowly east for several days. By Friday this ridge will be along and just west of the Rocky Mountains. As a result, a northwesterly upper air flow will be the predominant weather feature over our region. This northwesterly upper air flow may have minor upper air disturbances rippling through it, but atmospheric moisture will be so limited that no precipitation will result. Therefore, the weather will be dry across the WGRFC area from today through at least Friday.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Monday morning, no significant Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Wednesday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Soil moisture has begun to decrease and soils have become somewhat drier due to only light precipitation falling and warmer than normal temperatures occurring of late. As a result, it would take a bit more rainfall than usual for significant runoff to occur. Over Texas, 2% of the state is categorized as abnormally dry, but this amount is expected to increase given the current dry weather pattern. Over New Mexico, 9% of the state is abnormally dry, and that is mostly confined to the western portions of the state. No precipitation is expected over the next 5 days so no runoff will occur.

...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...WGRFC Basins...
Sites above criteria are Deweyville (DWYT2) on the lower Sabine, Carrollton (CART2) on the Elm Fork River (Trinity Basin), and Moss Bluff (MBFT2) on the lower Trinity River. No rainfall is forecast in the next 5 days.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook


...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

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