National Weather Service River Forecast Center

...THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

Storm activity has continued in central Texas with heavy localized rain totals reaching near record amounts around the San Antonio area from midnight up to the time of this report. Short term models suggest scattered convective storms expanding north and east throughout the day.

A large sprawling closed upper level storm system continues to develop over the pacific northwest, with the circulation expanding into northern California and Nevada. This system is expected to move eastward later this weekend and shift the upper level ridge currently over the area to the east.

This pattern is favorable for additional showers and thunderstorms near the dry line over west Texas and the Panhandle down into northern Mexico this evening. It will push east-southeast into north Texas with diminishing chances for rain over east Texas and Louisiana. Some localized convective activity is possible for the Panhandle again Sunday evening. Conditions are also favorable for continued storm activity in central Texas over the next couple of days. Major flooding is expected for portions of the San Antonio and Guadalupe basins later today through Monday. flood" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">flash flooding is already occurring in the San Antonio from reported rainfall totals near 9 inches in 6-8 hours.

Mid-week should see a return of storm activity in far west Texas eventually affecting the eastern two-thirds of Texas, north and south. as the system advances eastward. This will include Presidio and areas around the Big Bend National Park reaching north into Lubbock.

For Today into Sunday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to one inch are forecast for central Texas extending into the DFW Metroplex.

For Sunday into Monday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Tuesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to one inch are forecast for Midland and northeast through Childress.

The ongoing drought remains entrenched across the entire WGRFC area. About 67 percent of Texas remains in sever drought, or worse, with 18 percent classified as exceptional. In New Mexico, drought conditions are even more widespread, with 98 percent of the state in sever drought, or worse, with 45 percent classified as exceptional drought.

...Guadalupe Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Heavy rainfall has been occurring since midnight in the San Antonio area. This rainfall is starting to move into the Guadalupe River basin around New Braunfels, Texas. The Guadalupe River and the Comal River, a tributary to the mainstem Guadalupe, is forecast to rise to around flood stage in the New Braunfels area.

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Higher than normal flows is currently occurring for the South Fork Sabine River near Quinlan.

...Nueces Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Higher than normal flows is forecast to occur for Los Olmos creek near Falfurias. This location is part of the Nueces River forecast group.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Near normal river flows are occurring for the remainder of the WGRFC basins. Although rainfall is possible, no significant flooding is expected for these areas. However, the WGRFC will continue to monitor these areas in the event river forecasts need to be issued.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

CAZIER

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