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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1117 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015
VALID: MAY 28 THROUGH JUNE 2
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WGRFC REGION NEXT 24 HOURS...

A complex of showers and thunderstorms developed overnight near the Texas Panhandle...and continued moving over areas of North Texas and the Red River this morning. Currently, the heaviest rainfall is confined to areas along the Red River and will continue to move into southeastern Oklahoma over the next couple of hours. Elsewhere, another area of showers and thunderstorms is developing over New Mexico and will eventually move into the Texas Panhandle and West Texas through the late morning and afternoon hours. This activity is not expected to cause any additional rises on the rivers through this afternoon.

Another upper level disturbance is expected to move across the WGRFC area later day, which will result in yet another complex of showers and thunderstorms developing over portions of Northwest and North Texas this evening and continuing through the overnight hours. Rainfall amounts of up to 1.00 are expected for areas along and west of I-35. However due to a very unstable and moist atmosphere, higher amounts are certainly possible.

By late tomorrow through Saturday morning...a few upper air disturbances combined with a cold front moving across the Central Plains, will add additional rainfall to most of the WGRFC area. Overall, this activity is expected to continue through the weekend...which may add additional rises to some river basins that are currently in moderate or major flooding.

The latest forecast models are indicating rainfall will remain in the forecast for most of the WGRFC area though next week, however rainfall amounts are not expected to be significant. We will continue to monitor and update accordingly with any changes



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Friday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of up to 1.00 inch are forecast from an area along and west of I-35.

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.50 to 1.00 inch are forecast for portions of North and Central Texas...mainly along and north of I-20. Less amounts are forecast for areas along and south of I-20.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for areas stretching from the Big Bend northeastward to Northeast Texas.

For Sunday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for portions of Northeast and East Texas.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Drought conditions continue to improve across most of the WGRFC area. Recent precipitation events have brought drought relief to many parts of Texas. In Texas, only about 15% of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought, and extreme to exceptional drought conditions are no longer being observed. In New Mexico, a little over a third of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (37%), and they also are free from extreme or exceptional drought conditions. Many of the lakes in Texas have levels which have risen due to recent rainfall, and some lakes are full and are releasing water. The rainfall expected over the next five days over especially the northern half of Texas will be heavy enough to produce significant runoff, and minor runoff is expected over the remainder of Texas. Elsewhere over the WGRFC area no significant runoff is anticipated.





...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...Guadalupe Basin...
...Major Flooding...
As the Flood Wave moves downstream, Gonzales (GNLT2) and Westhoff (WHOT2) have crested and continue to fall. The Flood Wave continues to arrive at Cuero with major flooding forecasted at Cuero (CUET2), Victoria (VICT2) and Dupont (DUPT2).

...Nueces Basin...
...Major Flooding...
Inflows into Choke Canyon Reservoir are on the increase. The Frio River at Tilden (TIDT2) is forecast to rise into minor flood by the weekend. However, Choke Canyon is well below the top of the conservation pool at this time and is increasing only slowly. On the Nueces River, upstream points at Asherton (ASRT2) and Cotulla (COTT2) have crested and will remain near steady to slowly falling. Water is now moving downstream to Tilden (TILT2), which will be rising into major flood over the next few days. Three Rivers (THET2) will be rising into moderate flood by early next week. Inflows into Lake Corpus Christi will once again be on the increase early next week due to these rises. Releases are up slightly to 5120 CFS, which has lead to renewed major flooding at Bluntzer (CBVT2). Calallen (CAAT2) is expected to see a slight rise in the next couple of days. Depending on how much inflow comes into the reservoir next week, renewed increases in release are possible at some point later in the week.

...San Jacinto Basin...
...Major Flooding...
The West Fork of the San Jacinto river near Porter (PTET2) and at Humble (HMMT2) are currently in major flood category. Widespread minor flooding and above normal flow levels continue across the San Jacinto River basin.

...Colorado Basin...
...Major Flooding...
The river has crested and is falling everywhere upstream of Columbusm (CBST2), which is currently near crest. The Colorado River at Wharton (WHAT2) is expected to rise into the 45 to 46 foot range by Saturday morning, which is several feet above major flood stage. Elevated flows below flood stage will continue downstream.

...Trinity Basin...
...Major Flooding...
Heavy rainfall across the entire Trinity River drainage has caused widespread bankfull, minor, and moderate flood flow conditions. Rainfall in the past 24 hours has caused quick rises in the Fort Worth area on the Clear and West Fork Trinity Rivers. These flows, combined with about a half inch of forecast rainfall, are expected to cause a rise of about a foot at Dallas in the next couple of days. The Trinity River at Trinidad (TDDT2), near Long Lake (LOLT2), and at Liberty (LBYT2) locations are above major flood levels and still rising. At Padera Lake, on the Mountain creek drainage, the dam is closely being monitored. Flood control reservoirs continue to store flood waters minimizing downstream flood conditions.

...Brazos Basin...
...Major Flooding...
Heavy, localized rainfall (3 to 4 inches) recently occurred in (1) the Possum Kingdom Lake area and (2) further downstream around Hempstead and Richmond. More widespread lesser rainfall amounts also occurred between these two locations.

Major flooding is forecast to occur on the Brazos River at Richmond (RMOT2). The river at this location is forecast to crest around 50 feet late Friday / early Saturday. At a river level of 50.2, the Fort Bend levee Improvement District enters into critical flood fighting operations.

Upstream, voluntary evacuations have occurred in the Horseshoe Bend Area, upstream of Granbury Reservoir. The Brazos River at Dennis (DNNT2), located upstream of this area, is forecast to crest around 24 feet this evening, below the moderate flood level.

...Neches Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
The Neches River system remains in elevated flow levels with several locations currently in flood. The Neches River near Alto (ATOT2) is at moderate levels. Nearly every forecast point within the Neches River system is above flood stage or forecast to rise above flood stage. Lakes in the region are all full and are passing their inflows unless designed for flood control. B.A. Steinhagen Lake has stabilized with their current releases, but additional rainfall could require additional increases this weekend. The coastal sites (SOLT2), (BEAT2), (KOUT2) should remain in minor flood stages. Sam Rayburn remains below its surcharge area, but is still rising.

...Sabine Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
The uppermost section of the Sabine River has recovered from the rainfall event earlier this week, but Lake Tawakoni (PNTT2) continues to spill for the first time in years. This water, added to local runoff below the dam will allow the Sabine River near Mineola to rise slightly into its moderate flood category level. The rest of the river between Mineola and Toledo Bend is seeing mostly minor flooding. Toldeo Bend continues to pass inflows with current releases at 28kcfs; not expected to increase next 24hrs. Moderate flooding continues on the lower Sabine River Basin through Bon Wier (BWRT2) and Deweyville (DWYT2) as Toledo Bend Reservoir continues to pass large inflows.

...San Antonio Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
The San Antonio River at Goliad (GLIT2) will crest above moderate flood stage Friday.

...San Bernard Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
The rivers are crested or near crest. At Boling (BOLT2) and Sweeny (SWYT2) moderate flooding is occurring.

...Lavaca-Navidad Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
There is minor flooding ongoing at a few locations.

...Rio Grande Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Releases out of Marte Gomez Reservoir in Mexico are driving a rise on the Rio Grande near San Benito and Ramirez (SBNT2). This rise will continue downstream to Brownsville and Matamoros.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Currently, most rivers are have ongoing flooding conditions and remain very sensitive to further rainfall. Soil conditions remain very saturated and any further rainfall will only exacerbate the ongoing flooding.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather

...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

MCCANTS

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