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ISSUED: 1032 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map


Heavy rainfall continues to impact portions of the Permian Basin and Texas Panhandle this morning. Current rainfall amounts are averaging 0.50 to 1.00 inch per hour. This trend should continue through the early evening hours, as the slow moving upper low approaches from the west. Over the last 24 hours, rainfall totals of near 3.50 inches occurred over portions of New Mexico and West Texas. This activity caused moderate flooding around the Candelaria area early this morning. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop over the Big Bend this evening, and continue through tomorrow. Additional rainfall amounts of up to 2.00 inches are expected across this area. Higher than normal flows and or minor flooding is possible the next 24-36 hours.

By tomorrow, the upper low is forecast to slowly move back towards the south and west. This will shift the heaviest rainfall into portions of northern Mexico by the weekend.

By early next week, an upper ridge will begin to develop once again across most of the region. This will bring a return of mild and dry weather to the WGRFC region early next week.


Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Friday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of up to 2.00 inches are forecast for the Permian Basin and the Texas Big Bend.

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for portions of the lower Rio Grande Valley.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Saturday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Sunday into Tuesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Drought conditions have returned to a good part of Texas. Only the Gulf coast, far west Texas and the panhandle are free from abnormally dry conditions. Topsoil moisture has decreased over the past month, which means it will require more rainfall to fall for runoff to occur. In Texas 65% of the state is abnormally dry, with 18% in severe drought. In New Mexico, 43% of the state is also abnormally dry. Some beneficial rainfall will occur from central and southeast New Mexico into the southwest third of Texas the next several days, and some runoff will likely occur. Elsewhere, the rainfall forecast over the next five days will not be heavy enough to cause significant runoff.


Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...Rio Grande Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Heavy rainfall occurred again over night in the Rio Grande Basin causing Candelaria to rise into moderate flood category.

...Pecos Basin...
Heavy rainfall occurred near Carlsbad overnight. A rapid rise into minor flood category is expected near Dark Canyon Draw (DACN5).

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Elsewhere, only light rainfall is expected over northern and eastern Texas, keeping the rivers in these areas near normal if not below normal levels.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor

Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather


The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at:

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:

National Precipitation Analysis:

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:

The US Drought Assessment:

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:


$$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.