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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 925 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015
VALID: MARCH 5 THROUGH MARCH 10
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE WGRFC AREA. ADDITIONAL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

A strong cold front moved through most of Texas the past 24 hours. In the meantime, a strong upper level trough moved from the Baja of California eastward, and this trough is rapidly moving across Texas now. The combination of these systems generated widespread showers and a few thunderstorms Wednesday. Behind the front very cold air moved in and the precipitation changed into a mixture of wintry precipitation last night. Officially 3.5 inches of snow fell in the DFW metroplex, with locally higher amounts. Rainfall amounts exceeded 3.00 inches over extreme east Texas from Longview to Linden TX. The upper level storm is forecast to move east of the region by this afternoon, and cold, dry air is moving in. Thus most of the precipitation will end during the day today. Some lingering light precipitation is expected over deep south Texas into early Friday before dry weather sets in.

By Friday a weak ridge of high pressure is forecast to develop over Texas. This will keep most of the WGRFC area in a west or northwesterly upper air flow with dry weather being the result into Saturday morning.

By late Saturday a new storm system over Mexico is forecast to move slowly eastward. This will tap into some Gulf moisture and may bring some precipitation to south Texas and areas along and near the Texas Gulf coast Saturday night into Tuesday morning. The heaviest rain should be confined to the Gulf coastal regions where atmospheric moisture will be deepest. Away from the coastline most of the precipitation should be light, with no hydrologic impacts expected.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Friday morning, no significant Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. MAP amounts of up to 0.25 inch are forecast over the upper Texas Gulf coast, with lighter amounts over the southeast third of Texas and Louisiana.

For Friday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for Deep South Texas near Brownsville.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast for areas along and near the middle Texas Gulf coast. Lesser MAP amounts are forecast for the southeastern half of Texas and western Louisiana.

For Sunday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for areas along and near the Texas Gulf coast and into southern Louisiana. Lesser MAP amounts are forecast for the southeastern third of Texas and the southern two thirds of Louisiana.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue across parts of New Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about a third of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (43%), and about 13% has extreme to exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, two thirds of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (68%). Lake levels in these exceptional drought areas are at or near historical lows for this time of year. Recent precipitation events have brought a little bit of drought relief over the past week or two. Rainfall amounts of over 0.50 inch are forecast for southeastern Texas the next 5 days which could produce minor runoff. Elsewhere, little or no runoff is expected.

...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Widespread 1 to 2 inches of rainfall across the upper Sabine and 2 to 3 inches across the middle basins near Longview has again generated enough runoff to bring the Cowleech Fork (GNVT2) and South Fork (QLAT2) into minor flood. Other headwater and local area basins along the upper and middle reaches of the Sabine from Mineola (MLAT2) to Longview (LONT2) are steady rising into action and low minor flood levels. Further downstream, the Sabine River at Deweyville (DWYT2) will crest near action stage late week. Toledo Bend reservoir still generating 1 unit continuous until further notice.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Most rivers are generally near normal baseflow conditions across the eastern WGRFC area and below normal across the western areas. Overnight widespread 1 to 2 inch rainfall across northeastern Texas has generated new rises on small streams and creeks within headwater areas within the upper Sabine, Neches, and Trinity river basins. These continued periodic rains are highly beneficial; allowing slow deeper soil moisture penetration that has been limited over the past few years. With current rainfall received, no significant flooding is expected.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook


...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

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