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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1103 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015
VALID: MAY 6 THROUGH MAY 11
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...

An upper level disturbance moved across portions of the Hill Country and Central Texas overnight. Thereafter, a complex of showers and thunderstorms developed in and around the Austin, Tx area. This activity was responsible for storms producing 6-7 inches of rainfall across Williamson and Bastrop counties. This rainfall also caused some minor flooding across several basins, within the Brazos river system. Currently, the complex of showers and thunderstorms has weakened, and is moving towards the southwest. Rainfall amounts are currently averaging close to 1.00 inch per hour. Elsewhere, very light showers are moving over Northeast Texas, however this activity is not expected to cause any significant issues.

Overall, based on the upper level pattern, showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact some part of the WGRFC area each day, through early next week. Portions of North and Northwest Texas will likely see the greatest impacts with this ongoing activity. Average rainfall amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are possible. Also, higher than normal flows and/or minor flooding is also possible, however widespread moderate or major flooding is not expected through the end of the week.

By this weekend, an upper level low will begin slowly approaching from the west. As this system moves closer to the WGRFC region, showers and thunderstorms will once again develop over portions of West and Central Texas on Saturday. By Sunday/Monday, showers and thunderstorm activity will become more widespread across North and East Texas, as a cold front and dry line move towards the east. Rainfall amounts of up to 2.00 are possible over these areas, as well as the possibility of moderate flooding occurring over the Sabine and Trinity River systems.

We will continue to monitor the situation for possibility of additional flooding, over the weekend through early next week.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Thursday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for portions of northwest Texas and southeast Texas. Lesser amounts are forecast for North and Central Texas.

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for portions North Texas...mainly along and North of I-20.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for portions of northwest Texas...mainly along and slightly west of I-35.

For Saturday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of up to 2.00 inches are forecast for all areas along the I-35 corridor.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue across parts of New Mexico and Texas. Recent precipitation events have brought drought relief to parts of Texas. In Texas, about a third of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (31%), and about 6% has extreme to exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, a little over half of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (56%). Lake levels in the extreme drought areas of Texas have responded some, but many are at or near historical lows for this time of year. The rainfall expected over the next five days over the WGRFC area will likely be heavy enough to produce significant runoff over roughly the eastern half of the WGRFC area.

...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Minor flooding continues along the mainstem of the Neches and Angelina River system. Area lakes remain full and flood control reservoirs continue their releases. The stage on the Neches River near Town Bluff (TBFT2) is being driven by releases out of B.A. Steinhagen lake.

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Toledo Bend continues full 2-unit continuous power generation. Deweyville (DWYT2) will remain above minor flood levels through the forecast period.

...Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Heavy rainfall occurred overnight in the East Yegua creek (DEYT2), Middle Yegua creek (DMYT2), and Davidson creek watersheds. All three forecast points for these basins are forecast to crest near or above flood stage.

...Colorado Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Heavy rain overnight east of Austin has generated a flashy rise on several tributaries of the Colorado River, especially Wilbarger creek. Water is still rising, but has just started getting into the mainstem of the river and should start rising at Bastrop (BRTT2) this afternoon.

...Trinity Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Lake Livingston continues to remain full and is passing any extra water from upstream through it`s flood gates. The Elm Fork Trinity River near Carrollton (CART2) has risen slightly above action stage as flows upstream have been increased. On the mainstem downstream both Liberty (LBYT2) and Moss Bluff (MBFT2) remain high.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Minor flooding continues in the Neches and lower Sabine River basins. Another series of storms will affect many portions of Texas bringing mostly beneficial rains. Late Sunday and Monday are forecast to produce heavier rainfall totals for the eastern half of Texas mainly affecting the basins that have been experiencing flooding for the past few weeks.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook


...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

MCCANTS

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