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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1034 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016
VALID: AUGUST 29 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 3
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST...

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue over the upper Texas coast and coastal bend the next several days, as an area of low pressure moves along the southeast Texas coast. Heavy rains have been focused along the immediate shoreline and over the coastal waters the last day or so, therefore this activity has not caused any significant issues at this time. As this feature continues to drift along the coast, precipitation will continue to increase in coverage across the entire coast. Rainfall amounts of 3-5 inches (isolated amounts up to 7 inches) are possible along the coastal areas of Texas and Louisiana, mainly today through Wednesday. No significant flooding is expected at this time.

Rain chances will remain in the forecast for the entire WGRFC region through mid-week, as an upper level system moves towards the area early this week. In addition, a ridge of high pressure is forecast to build back westward once again and deliver mostly dry conditions to most of Texas.

...Tropical updates...

The Tropical Wave that was moving over the Florida Straits yesterday, has strengthened and now is classified as Tropical Depression #9. Some additional strengthening is possible as it continues to move over the Gulf of Mexico the next few days and eventually towards the Florida coast the end of this week. At this time, this system has a low chance of impacting any portion of Texas, however a lot could change in the coming days. Therefore, we will continue to monitor the forecast models over the weekend and update accordingly.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Tuesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of up to 1.00 inch are forecast for portions of southeast Texas. Lesser amounts are forecast for West Texas and New Mexico.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of up to 1.00 inch are forecast for coastal bend of Texas, New Mexico and West Texas.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for portions of West Texas and New Mexico.

For Thursday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

After the widespread rain the past seven days over parts of New Mexico and Texas, drought conditions have eased somewhat. The U.S. Drought Monitor has categorized Texas as 29% abnormally dry, with less than 1% in severe drought. Over New Mexico, 88% of the state is abnormally dry, and 24% remains in the moderate drought category. The showers and thunderstorms forecast this week will keep more serious drought conditions from developing over the WGRFC region, while many sections continue drought-free. Since topsoil has become moister, some runoff is possible where the heaviest rain is forecast. However, as the weather dries out some this week most of the runoff will be insignificant across the majority of the WGRFC area.





...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...Guadalupe Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Lower end of the Guadalupe River continues to move flood waters to the Gulf. The last point along the river with a forecast is at Bloomington (DUPT2) which will drop below flood stage today and continue falling.

...Nueces Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Runoff from rain that fell last week continues to flow down the mainstem of the Nueces River. No flooding is expected at this time, but higher than normal flow will continue through the area over the next few days.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
All other rivers are recovering from the last rain event and many locations are still well above normal flow for this time of year. With additional rainfall expected over the next few days, new minor rises are expected in many of our river systems, especially the Big Bend region of the Rio Grande.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather

...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

MCCANTS

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