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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1049 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014
VALID: SEPTEMBER 30 THROUGH OCTOBER 5
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...MOSTLY DRIER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATER THIS WEEK...

Rain chances will be isolated to the dry line over West Texas over the next few days. The upper level storm responsible for the thunderstorms over Northeast New Mexico and Eastern Colorado is lifting rapidly north. Showers and thunderstorms should initiate along the dry line each afternoon as daytime heating and the boundary should provide the necessary lift to tap into the moist airmass across the area. This pattern should repeat again on Wednesday.

Widespread significant rainfall is expected, especially along and east of Interstate 35, starting Thursday and continuing into the weekend. A well advertised cold front should cross the area Thursday. Moisture is not a limiting factor. However, the best lift and instability parameters will set up over East and Southeast Texas later Thursday. The focus for thunderstorm development will shift south as the front makes steady progress Thursday into Friday. At this time, the front will make it to the Texas Coast, but may not clear Deep South Texas. With this residual boundary in place, precipitation chances will remain in the forecast for Deep South Texas into the weekend.

Beyond the scope of this forecast, but worth noting: the tropics over the East Pacific remain quite active. Even with upper level moisture from Rachel slowly diminishing, yet another system is expected to develop off the Mexico Coast. This system will be named Simon if it does indeed develop. All official tropical forecasts come from the National Hurricane Center. WGRFC will be monitor moisture plumes and connections to this system. Even if the track does not impact the WGRFC area of responsibility, mid and upper level conditions could stream deep moisture into Northern Mexico. At this time, reservoir releases from Mexico are driving higher forecasts for the Rio Grande (Rio Bravo) from Presidio through the Big Bend. We will monitor this situation and will update our forecasts if necessary.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Wednesday morning, no significant Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of

For Friday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Drought conditions are slowly improving over Texas and New Mexico. Statewide, New Mexico has no areas of exceptional drought, while less than 2% of Texas remains in exceptional drought. Severe drought conditions are impacting less than 30% of New Mexico and 29% of Texas. No significant runoff is expected over the area for the forecast period.





...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...Rio Grande Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Flows down the Rio Conchos into the Rio Grande continue to cause minor flooding near Presidio. Flows downstream of Luis Leon Reservoir are slowly decreasing. No significant rainfall is forecast in the Rio Conchos basin in the next 5 days. WGRFC continues to monitor hydrologic conditions in the Rio Conchos basin.

...Pecos Basin...
Flows from last weeks flooding on the Pecos River in the vicinity Red Bluff Reservoir continue downstream. River levels are rising at Grandfalls (PGFT2) and at Girvin (GIVT2). Minor flood levels are not forecast.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
All other basins are expected to remain near normal flow conditions.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather

...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

WALLER

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