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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 923 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016
VALID: MAY 24 THROUGH MAY 29
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...

The weather remains relatively quiet through mid-week,then conditions become favorable for the development of showers and thunderstorms. An upper level pattern will result in the development of showers and thunderstorms into the Memorial Day Holiday Weekend. The southwesterly flow aloft will bring a series of disturbances across the area. Low level moisture remains plentiful, which points to thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall. The primary driver in the initiation of thunderstorm development is daytime heating and the dry line which will help provide the lift. Leftover outflow boundaries from the previous day`s thunderstorms may also provide the necessary lift. Widespread significant rainfall is possible later this week into the weekend for a Northeast or East Texas event.

As mentioned before, it will rain over the WGRFC area the next 5 days. Some areas will receive little to no rain. Some areas could see pockets of very heavy rainfall, especially in and near the strongest thunderstorms. Widespread significant rainfall is not expected until later this week into the weekend.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Wednesday morning, no significant Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for South Texas.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 1 to 2 inches are forecast for Northeast Texas and southwest into Central Texas. MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for the remainder of the area.

For Friday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 1 to 2 inches are forecast East Texas south and west into Central Texas. MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for the remainder of the area.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Soils are fairly moist across a good part of the state, especially the eastern half. 3% of Texas is categorized as abnormally dry, with less than 1% of the state in the moderate drought category. Over New Mexico, 83% of the state is abnormally dry, and 40% remains in the moderate drought category. The rainfall the next 5 days will not be heavy enough for widespread significant runoff.





...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...Guadalupe Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Victoria (VICT2) and Bloomington (DUPT2) are nearing crest in moderate flood levels due to rainfall last week. Elsewhere, flood levels have crested and have begun falling. Canyon Lake is well within its flood pool and has begun releasing water downstream. This is resulting in some sustained levels above action stage on the Guadalupe River from Sattler to Gonzales which will likely continue through the week.

...San Antonio Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Locally heavy rainfall the past several days produced rises across the San Antonio System.Upstream/headwater points have crested. Routed water from this event will push Goliad (GLIT2) near moderate flood levels. Routed waters from Runge will attenuate slightly before arriving at Goliad.

...Brazos Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Higher than normal flows are occurring on portions of the Brazos and associated tributaries due to recent rainfall and releases from upstream flood control reservoirs.

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Toledo Bend Reservoir continues to pass inflows, keeping the lower Sabine River at higher than normal levels with minor flooding downstream at Deweyville (DWYT2).

...Neches Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Higher than normal flow are expected to continue for areas below Town Bluff the remainder of the week.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Soils remain wet over most of the eastern half of the WGRFC forecast area. Additional rainfall is expected later this week, which could lead to more river flooding on basins already impacted.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather

...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

AUSTIN-SMITH

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