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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1108 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014
VALID: OCTOBER 24 THROUGH OCTOBER 29
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY BEFORE A PATTERN CHANGE BRINGS A LITTLE RAIN NEXT WEEK...

An upper level disturbance passed through the eastern parts of the WGRFC area Thursday morning which brought some light rainfall amounts to central and east Texas. The showers associated with this passing short wave trough moved eastward and exited Texas by mid-day. As this system moved east of the area, a ridge of high pressure nudged in from the desert southwest. This strong dome of high pressure is centered over central New Mexico this morning. This high will move over Texas Saturday and will flatten out and shift to the northern Gulf of Mexico by late Sunday. As a result, today through the weekend looks mostly dry for the WGRFC area with unseasonably warm temperatures expected.

By Monday the ridge of high pressure will be centered over Florida. This will allow an upper level trough, which will be located off the Oregon coast Saturday, to move east. As the trough crosses the Rockies on Sunday night it will begin to impact the western portions of the WGRFC forecast area. This system may generate some precipitation over southern Colorado starting late Sunday as a cold front pushes into Colorado and New Mexico Sunday evening. This weak front is expected to move east into north Texas by Tuesday and pass very slowly into central and northeast Texas by Wednesday morning. This front may bring increased chances for rain to northern and eastern Texas later Tuesday into Wednesday. At this point, heavy rainfall is not expected and the larger amounts are forecast northeast of our region. The progress of the system will be monitored and updates will be provided throughout the next several days.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Saturday morning, no significant Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Sunday into Monday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. Light amounts of MAP of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over southwest Colorado.

For Monday into Wednesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. Light amounts of MAP of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over southern Colorado, as well as over the eastern half of Texas and Louisiana.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue to be observed over parts of New Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about half the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (48%) and 11% has extreme to exceptional drought. In New Mexico, nearly two thirds of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (63%) and 8% has extreme to exceptional drought. Since no significant rainfall is expected for most areas within the WGRFC forecast area through the next 5 days, no runoff is expected.





...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...WGRFC Basins...
WGRFC river forecast points are currently near bankfull conditions. Rainfall forecasted over the next five days will not cause mainstem river flooding in the WGRFC area.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather

...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

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