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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1056 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016
VALID: JUNE 30 THROUGH JULY 5
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...HOT AND DRY FOR MUCH OF TEXAS THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO...

A few scattered showers and thunderstorms were noted in the WGRFC forecast area over the past couple of days. The coverage and intensity of the convection has decreased as this week has progressed with high pressure beginning to take hold across much of Texas. In addition,there has been diurnal convection with localized heavy rain affecting portions of the Rio Grande basin.

A few light showers remain in the forecast for today especially for northern Texas, and southeastern Texas along the Gulf coast.

A ridge of high pressure will build across the majority of the WGRFC area keeping most of our region dry, but upper air disturbances passing north of Texas could bring some rain to far northern Texas along the Oklahoma border. One of these disturbances moving northward from the Gulf of California will result in some showers and thunderstorms, with locally heavy rain in New Mexico and Colorado Friday into Saturday.

By the Holiday weekend, expect mostly hot and dry conditions across the WGRFC area as an upper level high builds and holds across Texas. Isolated showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, especially along the fringes of WGRFC`s forecast area and in Colorado and New Mexico.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Friday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch are forecast for Colorado and New Mexico through northern TX along the panhandle.

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.50 to 1.00 inch are forecast for Colorado and New Mexico.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch are forecast for Colorado and New Mexico through northern TX along the panhandle.

For Sunday into Tuesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Soils continue to be moist across the majority of Texas. Only 1% of Texas is categorized as abnormally dry, with no moderate or greater drought noted. Over New Mexico, 77% of the state is abnormally dry, and 16% remains in the moderate drought category. Even though the soils are wet in Texas, limited rainfall over the next few days will help with the drying process through this forecast period.





...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...Trinity Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
DFW area flood control reservoirs continue to make flood storage evacuation releases that will keep elevated flows going down the mainstem passing through Lake Livingston. This will keep the lower portion of the Trinity above normal for an extended period with Liberty (LBYT2) staying in moderate flood level.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Some minor flooding continues in the Brazos, Guadalupe, Neches, and Sabine river basins. The remaining river systems across the eastern portions of WGRFC area remain relatively wet. No significant rainfall is expected within the next 5 days that would generate significant river responses.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather

...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

AUSTIN-SMITH

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