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ISSUED: 1133 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2015
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map


A major storm system continues to be present to the northwest of the WGRFC area. At the surface, deep Gulf moisture exists over most of Texas, and aloft, high level moisture is also present from the eastern Pacific Ocean. As upper disturbances in the southwest flow moved across the region the past 48 to 72 hours, widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms developed over most of Texas, as well as over the southeast half of New Mexico. Higher elevation snows also occurred over the mountains of southern Colorado, but the snow has let up the past 24 hours. However, some additional snow can be expected over the mountains of northern New Mexico and Colorado the next day or two. The heaviest rain the past 24 hours was over west Texas, with around 2.00 inches noted around Abilene, Sweetwater and Sterling City.

The rainfall that has been so persistent over most of Texas will start to decrease by tonight. The strong upper level low pressure system which was over Nevada will be redeveloping over Wyoming by tonight. As this transformation occurs drier air will begin to move eastward over Texas. This will cause the rainfall over Texas to get shoved eastward into Louisiana and will gradually diminish by Monday morning.

In general, additional rainfall amounts of up to 1.00 inch are expected for areas east of I-35 and north of I-20 through tonight, with the highest amounts actually being over southwest Arkansas. We will continue to monitor the model guidance for any changes, and will update accordingly. Some parts of north Texas between Dallas and Sherman has exceeded 10 inches of rain for this event.

On Monday the upper low will shift eastward, and by Tuesday morning the low will be over extreme southern Minnesota. Drier air should cover a good part of the WGRFC area, but some residual rainfall development can be expected from deep south into southeast Texas and Louisiana from later Monday through Wednesday as the dry air undercuts the lingering moisture.

On Wednesday an upper air disturbance will develop and approach Texas from the northwest. As this upper disturbance crosses Texas rainfall should linger along and near the Texas Gulf coast. After this disturbance moves east of the WGRFC area on Thursday all the precipitation should push east of our region. Dry weather is then forecast Thursday through Friday morning.


Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Monday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 inch or more are forecast for central and northeast Texas into northern Louisiana. The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 1.00 inch, are forecast over extreme northeast Texas. MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch or less are forecast for most of the rest of Texas, western Louisiana, northern New Mexico and southern Colorado.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for the southeast third of Texas and Louisiana, as well as a small part of northern New Mexico into southern Colorado.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast over the middle and upper Texas Gulf coast into southern Louisiana. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for the southeast third of Texas and Louisiana.

For Wednesday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast over deep south Texas, as well as for the Gulf coast of Texas into southwest Louisiana. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for the southern third of Texas and the southern half of Louisiana.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Topsoil moisture is very high due to recent rainfall events, which means it will require less rainfall for runoff to occur. That, along with the vegetation being dormant now that the growing season has ended, means runoff will be quicker. Over Texas only 7% of the state is abnormally dry, while over New Mexico, 26% of the state is abnormally dry. Heavy rainfall amounts of up to 1 inch, on top of what rain has already fallen, are forecast through tonight. This will lead to some additional runoff because of the wet soil moisture conditions and the cold season vegetation patterns.


Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...Trinity Basin...
...Major Flooding...
Continued rains have pushed several sites into flood levels. Many of the Trinity tributaries are experiencing minor to moderate flooding with the additional rains. The Trinity mainstem at Dallas (DALT2) crested above major flood levels at 41 feet yesterday. It is expected to remain at moderate flood levels for a couple of days during a slow recession. Points downstream from Trinidad (TDDT2) through Long Lake (LOLT2) have risen or forecast to rise slightly into major flood levels for a few days.

It has been reported that a levee has been breached about a mile upstream of Rosser and is affecting the area around Highway 34 and other local roads. These roads will be barricaded while river levels remain high.

...Brazos Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Significant rainfall has generated rises on the Brazos River basin. At this time, minor to moderate river flooding is occurring around the De Leon basins of the Sabana and Leon Rivers. Minor river flooding is also occurring between Possum Kingdom and Granbury Reservoirs. Continued higher flows are expected as the threat for rainfall continue into next week.

...Sabine Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Continued rainfall in the upper Sabine will push Greenville (GNVT2) and Quinlan (QLAT2) into minor flood levels. Routed water and local runoff are pushing Mineola (MLAT2) and Gladewater (GDWT2) into moderate flood levels and expected to remain high for a few days.

...Rio Grande Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The Rio Grande above the confluence with the Rio Conchos (PIOT2) has responded to local rains and is fluctuating around minor flood levels. The river should crest slightly below minor flood levels today and then recede.

...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Minor flooding is expected on the Neches River from Lake Palestine to Alto. Continued rainfall may prolong the higher river levels.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Additional rainfall is expected tonight through Monday but is not expected to cause another round of flooding

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor

Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather


The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at:

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:

National Precipitation Analysis:

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:

The US Drought Assessment:

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:


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