Current Version              Previous Versions:   1  2  3  4  

Text Only

...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1145 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014
VALID: NOVEMBER 22 THROUGH NOVEMBER 27
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF TEXAS TODAY FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEK...

A deep low pressure system over northern Mexico south of El Paso is beginning to produce a widespread (beneficial) precipitation event over Texas and Louisiana. Low level southerly winds have transported Gulf moisture northward, and during the past 24 hours a weak upper air disturbance already produced light to moderate rain over roughly the southeast half of Texas and western Louisiana. Isolated areas received close to 2.00 inches of rain. The low pressure system is moving east within an active southern branch of the jet stream, and has set the stage for showers and thunderstorms. With abundant moisture and significant large scale lift (courtesy of this storm system), widespread showers and thunderstorms have formed earlier this morning from west central to south central Texas. Other thunderstorms were ongoing from the Red River northward into Oklahoma. Some severe thunderstorms are expected over south Texas through this evening.

The low pressure system is forecast to cross Texas this afternoon and tonight. As a result, thunderstorms will continue and will produce point rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with isolated amounts in excess of 4 inches in some areas of northern, central and southeast Texas. This heavy rainfall could produce areas of runoff, but due to the localized nature of the heaviest rain, widespread mainstem river flooding is not expected. The speed of the storm will prevent rainfall amounts from being excessive.

On Sunday morning the strong Pacific storm system will exit the area, leaving drier weather in its wake. The dry weather is expected to persist through Monday morning.

On Monday and Tuesday a couple upper air disturbances and a cold front are forecast to move through Texas. Atmospheric moisture will be limited, thus little or no shower activity is expected with their passage. Cool, dry weather is expected from Tuesday night into Thanksgiving Day as high pressure approaches the region. The only prospect for precipitation would be over the Colorado Rockies.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Sunday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch or more are forecast for the area east of a line from Childress to Midland to south of Corpus Christi. The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 2.00 inches, are forecast for parts of southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana from near Beaumont to Lake Charles. Widespread MAP amounts of 1.50 inches are also expected. Lighter MAP amounts are forecast across most of Texas, extreme northern New Mexico and southern Colorado.

For Sunday into Monday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast for southwestern Colorado. Lighter MAP amounts are forecast for the northern third of New Mexico, much of Colorado and extreme northeast Texas.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Monday into Tuesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for extreme northern New Mexico and southern Colorado.

For Tuesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue to be observed over parts of New Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about half the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (44%) and 10% has extreme to exceptional drought. In New Mexico, nearly two thirds of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (63%) and 2% has extreme to exceptional drought. Significant rainfall is expected the first half of this weekend and should be heavy enough to produce runoff in some areas, mainly over the northern, central and southeast Texas. However, the runoff will not be enough for widespread, significant mainstem river flooding to occur.





...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...WGRFC Basins...
Rivers will remain below flood criteria through the forecast period. However, significant precipitation is forecast across portions of Texas this afternoon and tonight. As a result, some higher than normal flows and minor flooding is possible in southeast Texas as well as the headwater areas in the middle portions of the Brazos and Colorado river basins.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather

...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.