National Weather Service River Forecast Center

Dry weather will prevail today over the West Gulf region as weak high pressure remains in control. This ridge will weaken and shift east of the region by Sunday as an upper level trough of low pressure drifts eastward across northern Mexico.

A low pressure system remained over the Bay of Campeche in the southern Gulf of Mexico this morning. This system will be drawn northward by early Sunday as the upper level trough over Mexico pushes into southwest Texas. As a result, scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to begin impacting the Texas Gulf Coast and southeast Texas by Sunday morning. As the upper level trough shifts across Texas during the day on Sunday, precipitation will become focused off shore with some locally heavy rain possible over southeast Texas. At this time, the heaviest rainfall is forecast to remain over the Gulf of Mexico and along the immediate coast.

By Monday, the upper level trough will begin to push eastward, shifting heavy rainfall east of the WGRFC region. A cold front is forecast to drop southward across the Plains on Monday and push into Texas on Tuesday in the wake of the upper level trough moving into the Mississippi Valley. This front may produce scattered showers over eastern Texas on Tuesday, but generally dry weather is expected with the frontal passage. Dry weather is forecast to prevail for the middle of next week as high pressure builds over the region.

Special note on Tropical Depression Ida...

Tropical Depression Ida was currently located over extreme eastern Honduras this morning. Ida is forecast to move northward toward the Yucatan over the next couple days, restrengthening into a Tropical Storm. Ida is currently forecast to shift into the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week. At this time Ida poses little threat for the Texas Gulf Coast or the WGRFC area.

For Today into Sunday morning, no significant Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast over the Texas Gulf coast.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Tuesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

Some minor runoff is expected Sunday into Monday over east central and southeast Texas due to the wet soil moisture conditions and forecast rainfall. Based on current rainfall forecasts, significant runoff is not expected. Elsewhere over the region, no significant runoff is expected the next 5 days. The extreme drought conditions over deep south and south central Texas have seen improvement due to the rainfall which fell in October. Light to moderate rainfall is expected in this region around Sunday and Monday.

...Trinity Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Releases are currently being made from flood control reservoirs located across the Trinity River Basin. These reservoirs include Benbrook, Joe Pool, Ray Roberts, Lewisville, Grapevine, Lavon, Bardwell, and Navarro Mills. Releases are also being made from non-flood control reservoirs. These reservoirs include Mountain creek, Ray Hubbard, Cedar creek, Richland Chambers, and Livingston.

Releases from these projects are impacting parts of the Trinity River and its tributaries. For the upper Trinity, higher than normal flow levels are occurring at Carrollton on the Elm Fork Trinity tributary and is currently above action stage. For the middle Trinity, forecasts have been issued for Trinidad, Long Lake, and Crockett. Trinidad is above action stage, Long Lake is at minor flood conditions, and Crockett is at higher than normal levels. For the lower Trinity, higher than normal flows are occurring at Romayor; moderate flood conditions are impacting Liberty; and minor flood levels are occurring at Moss Bluff.

...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Minor flooding continues along the upper Neches/Angelina River systems including Attoyac Bayou. Minor flooding will persist for the Neches River from Neches (NCST2) to Diboll (DIBT2). Attoyac Bayou (ATBT2) will continue a slow fall throughout the week. The Neches near Town Bluff (TBFT2) below Steinhagen Lake will stay near minor flood stage of 64 feet based on current lake release information. Higher flows will continue for the reach along the Neches River downstream from Steinhagen Reservoir. The Neches River at Beaumont will experience a slow rise to near minor flood stage near the end of the week with minor tidal fluctuations.

...Lower Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Minor flooding continues on the Lower Brazos River. Higher than normal flows will continue at the locations of Bryan (BBZT2), Hempstead (HPDT2) and Richmond (RMOT2). This slow recession will keep these locations above criteria for at least the next couple of days.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Elsewhere, higher flows are occurring from recent rains. However, no rainfall is expected over the next 5 days that would create additional rises.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://www.weather.gov/rivers_tab.php

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/?n=wgrfcfop

National Precipitation Analysis: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/rfcshare/precip_analysis_new.php

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/drought_assessment.shtml

SHULTZ

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