National Weather Service River Forecast Center

A weak upper level trough is moving through the central United States today, but without Gulf moisture available, the system will remain dry over the WGRFC area.

However, a developing closed low in the Central Plains is expected to establish conditions favorable for drawing moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into south and possibly southeastern Texas by Tuesday morning. With this moisture in place, rainshowers may develop midday continuing until late evening or early Wednesday morning. This disturbance is then expected to move rapidly into the Gulf with storms exiting the WGRFC area by Wednesday.

No other significant precipitation events are anticipated in Texas through the remainder of the forecast period.

For Today into Monday morning, no significant Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inches of rain may occur in south Texas hugging the coast northward to Matagorda Bay. Lesser amounts of precipitation may occur further inland from Del Rio in south Texas along the Rio Grande through the hill country northeast through Waco and then through the border near Paris, Texas, including most of east Texas. Locally heavier amounts of rain can be anticipated offshore.

For Wednesday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

The most recent rainfall totals have generated some runoff in south Texas, across southeast Texas and the Texas Gulf coast with continued significant flooding in the lower portions of the coastal watersheds. The additional rainfall amounts for this forecast period are not expected to impact those areas currently in flood.

...Lavaca-Navidad Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Locally heavy rainfall over the Lavaca-Navidad basin generated new rises along the river system. Higher criteria, non-flood, flows are occurring at Morales (MRAT2) and Strane Park (LSNT2) on the Navidad River. West Mustang creek near Ganado (GNDT2) and the Tres Palacios River at Midfield (MTPT2) have crested and are now falling. The Lavaca River near Edna has nosed over flood stage and should crest overnight. Other rises are expected to remain below forecast criteria levels.

...Trinity Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The Trinity River at Dallas (DALT2) has fallen below flood stage and will continue to fall. Further downstream, in the middle section of the Trinity River, the Flood Wave that moved through Dallas will bring the Trinity River at Trinidad (TDDT2) above its action stage. Both Cedar creek Reservoir (TRNT2) and Richland Chambers (FFLT2) have increased their outflows to pass the additional water entering the lakes due to recent rainfall. Higher than normal flood conditions continue on the lower Trinity River at Liberty (LBYT2). Further downstream, minor flood conditions are occurring at Moss Bluff (MBFT2). The Trinity River is receding at both locations.

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Lake Tawakoni continues to spill enough water into the Sabine River that when combined with local flow, the Sabine River near Mineola will return to flood conditions later this week. At the other end of the river, minor flooding will persist throughout the forecast period at the Sabine River near Deweyville (DWYT2).

...Nueces Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Flooding continues on Mission River (REFT2) and Copano creek (RCCT2) both near Refugio. The rivers should start receding in a few days.

...San Antonio Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Cibolo creek near Falls City (FCTT2) continues to recover from the recent flood event as the water moves into the mainstem of the San Antonio River. A minor wave has been generated on the mainstem of the San Antonio above Cibolo creek and, when combined with the Cibolo creek flow, the mainsteam at Goliad (GLIT2) will crest above flood stage in a couple of days. .

...Lower Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Locally heavy rainfall across the Lower Brazos has produced some rises across the basin and its tributaries. Davidson creek at Lyons (LYNT2) has crested just above criteria and should begin falling later today. The Brazos River at Bryan has risen above its action stage and will continue to rise for another day or so before it begins to fall.

...Neches Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
The Neches River near Diboll (DIBT2) has finally dropped below flood stage this morning and continues to fall. All other points are within the streambanks.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
All other rivers in the WGRFC area are at base flow. No rises are expected during the next few days since precipitation forecasted for the next few days is expected to remain light in nature.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://www.weather.gov/rivers_tab.php

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/?n=wgrfcfop

National Precipitation Analysis: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/rfcshare/precip_analysis_new.php

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/drought_assessment.shtml

CAZIER

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