National Weather Service River Forecast Center

The cold front that triggered showers and thunderstorms across north Texas on yesterday, has moved towards the south and stalled this morning. Precipitation developed mainly along and behind the front, across portions of north-central Texas early this morning and has continued for the past several hours. Accumulated amounts of 2-3 inches were noted in Comanche and Hamilton counties, with lesser amounts across much of central Texas. Rainfall amounts will begin to decreased over the next couple of hours, as the system slowly shifts towards the south and east. Afterwards, conditions are expected to improve from west to east over the next 24 hours.

The cold front will continue to slide towards the south and/or stall across portions of east and southeast Texas. Precipitable water values are very high across portions of east Texas and western Louisiana. Therefore, rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches with higher amounts, are likely for much of the area. The primary location for development, appear to be along and east of the I-45 corridor and south of I-20. This will impact some of the basins within the middle and lower Sabine and Neches river systems.

By mid-week, high pressure will build across the area once again. This will allow the hot and dry weather to once again return for the next several days. Elsewhere, no significant rainfall is forecast for the next fiver days.

For Today into tomorrow morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for areas in east Texas...mainly from Shreveport...to Waco...to Beaumont. Another area of the same MAPs are forecast for areas in the Texas Panhandle...just west of Lubbock.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for areas in east, central and south Texas...mainly from Shreveport...to Eagle Pass...to Houston. Another area of the same MAPs are forecast for areas in the Texas Panhandle...just west of Lubbock. Lesser amounts are forecast for the remainder of central and south Texas.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for the eastern two-thirds of Texas.

For Thursday into Saturday morning, no significant MAPs are forecast for this period.

No significant runoff is expected to occur over the WGRFC area the next 5 days, although minor runoff may combine with snowmelt over northern New Mexico and southern Colorado to create higher than normal flows. Additionally, some minor runoff is also forecast over the southeastern portion of the forecast area..mainly along the lower Sabine and Neches river systems. Elsewhere across the state, exceptional drought conditions continue over portions of southern Texas, and with no rain forecast the next 5 days in this region no improvement in drought conditions is expected.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
WGRFC rivers are currently near baseflow conditions. No flooding is expected over the next several days.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://www.weather.gov/rivers_tab.php

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/?n=wgrfcfop

National Precipitation Analysis: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/rfcshare/precip_analysis_new.php

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/drought_assessment.shtml

MCCANTS

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