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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1047 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016
VALID: JULY 30 THROUGH AUGUST 4
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...THE REAL MONSOON APPEARS TO HAVE FINALLY KICKED IN FOR NEW MEXICO...

A significant monsoonal moisture boost looks more likely across western and north central New Mexico for much of next several days. Scattered showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain are forecast throughout the period. Storm coverage is expected to increase further early next week across all of western and central New Mexico. Models still show the western half of the state will be more favored for the more widespread, heavier rains, It looks like the monsoon is finally kicking in for New Mexico!

Turning the attention further east into Texas, a TUTT trough over the Lower Rio Grande Valley will drift northwest and become centered over Southern Texas later today. It will linger through Sunday as an upper level disturbance moves northwest across northern and southwestern Texas. A slight drying trend is expected, so the showers and thunderstorms should tend to dissipate before reaching the I-35 corridor by early evening. Also for this afternoon, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible across Maverick county near the Rio Grande.

Early into the middle of next week, no near term rain events are expected as the airmass dries significantly. Late in the week, the ridge shifts north a little allowing somewhat deeper moisture back into Southern and Central Texas. This enables the seabreeze to generate showers and thunderstorms for areas near the Coastal Plains.

Just beyond this forecast period, for next weekend, all models are showing some type of tropical development from the disturbance currently well east of the Lesser Antilles. Recent flights over the area show a track west to the Yucatan, the Bay of Campeche, the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and into Mexico.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Sunday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 of an inch are forecast for the upper Rio Grande near Santa Fe.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch are forecast for the upper Rio Grande from Albuquerque north into south central Colorado near Alamosa.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch are forecast for the upper Rio Grande from Albuquerque north into south central Colorado near Alamosa.

For Tuesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1.00 of an inch are forecast for the upper Rio Grande near Santa Fe.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Soils continue to dry out across Texas due to the warm temperatures and a lack of significant rainfall. The U.S. Drought Monitor has categorized Texas as 13% abnormally dry, with almost 2% in moderate or greater drought. Over New Mexico, 77% of the state is abnormally dry, and 16% remains in the moderate drought category. Some rainfall is forecast over the next five days primarily over east and southeast Texas and western Louisiana. This will keep drought conditions from developing in this region, but only minor runoff is anticipated. The lack of heavy rainfall elsewhere will lead to continued drying through this forecast period and no significant runoff is expected.





...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...WGRFC Basins...
Higher than normal seasonal flows are occurring in the eastern half of Texas. Some rain is expected across parts of the region over the next five days, but no significant river flooding is expected over this time frame.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather

...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

CAZIER

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