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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1054 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
VALID: OCTOBER 2 THROUGH OCTOBER 7
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE WGRFC AREA BY THE WEEKEND...

Showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous ahead of and along a strong cold front that will cross the WGRFC area Thursday, exiting the Texas Coast Friday. This front should help provide the necessary lift, tapping into abundant moisture, to bring decent rainfall to areas south and east of Interstate 35 from the DFW Metroplex to Laredo. Significant rainfall and runoff is not expected, as the forward speed of the front and thunderstorms should keep rainfall totals down.

Showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast for Deep South Texas, but even this activity should decrease by the weekend.

Drier and more seasonable weather will return later this weekend into early next week.

For longer range interests, we are still monitor the East Pacific. This area remains active. Tropical Storm Simon has developed off of the Mexican coastline. Reminder: all official tropical forecasts come from the National Hurricane Center. WGRFC will be monitor moisture plumes and connections to this system. Even if the track does not directly impact the WGRFC area of responsibility, mid and upper level conditions could stream deep moisture into Northern Mexico. At this time, reservoir releases from Mexico are driving higher flows for the Rio Grande (Rio Bravo) from Presidio through the Big Bend. Releases have been decreasing this week, yet reservoir levels remain fairly high for that area. We will monitor this situation and will update our forecasts if necessary.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Friday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast east of a line from Sherman to San Antonio. Lighter MAP amounts are expected across the remaining 2/3 of Texas.

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for Deep South Texas. Lighter MAP amounts are expected for the remainder of the immediate Texas coastline.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Saturday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Sunday into Tuesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Drought conditions are slowly improving over New Mexico and are a mixed bag for Texas. Statewide, New Mexico has no areas of exceptional drought, while less than 3% of Texas remains in exceptional drought. Severe drought conditions are impacting around 30% of New Mexico and slightly more than 29% of Texas. No significant runoff is expected over the area for the forecast period.





...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...Rio Grande Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Flows down the Rio Conchos into the Rio Grande continue to cause higher than normal levels near Presidio. Flows downstream of Luis Leon Reservoir are slowly decreasing. No significant rainfall is forecast in the Rio Conchos basin in the next 5 days. WGRFC continues to monitor hydrologic conditions in the Rio Conchos basin.

...Pecos Basin...
Flows from last weeks flooding on the Pecos River in the vicinity Red Bluff Reservoir continue downstream. The river has crested at Grandfalls (PGFT2). Girvin (GIVT2) is expected to crest sometime between October 5 and October 8. Minor flood levels are not forecast.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
All other basins are expected to remain near normal flow conditions.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather

...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

WALLER

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