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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1122 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015
VALID: JANUARY 30 THROUGH FEBRUARY 4
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...RAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY FOR MOST PORTIONS OF THE WGRFC FORECAST AREA...

As the upper low moves across southern California in cobination with a shortwave trough pushing southeast down into Colorado, southern Colorado and New Mexico will continue receiving precipitation. As the system continues moving to the east Texas will receive widespread rainfall Friday through Saturday and then clearing out on Sunday into Monday.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Saturday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.5 inches are forecast souther Colorado, western New Mexico, and western Texas including the panhandle.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1 inches are forecast across much of Texas.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.5 inches are forecast in southeast Texas.

For Monday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inches are forecast along the Texas coast.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue across parts of New Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about a third of the state is experiencingmoderate or worse drought (39%), and about 11% has extreme to exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, nearly two thirds of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (65%), and 4% has extreme to exceptional drought conditions. With the exception of east and southeast Texas, soils are generally dry.

...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...Trinity Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The Trinity River at Moss Bluff (MBFT2) is cresting above flood stage. Moss Bluff will begin slowly falling later today into this weekend.

...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Minor flooding continues on the Neches and Angelina rivers. Flooding near Diboll (DIBT2) and Lufkin (LUFT2) will continue for the next few days. Attoyac Bayou near Chireno (ATBT2) will slowly fall below criteria.

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The Sabine River at Deweyville (DWYT2) remains steady above minor flood criteria at this time based on reservoir releases upstream.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
All other forecast locations are at or near seasonal flows. Forecast rainfall this weekend and next week could generate some runoff, especially over the coastal basins and basins across Southeast Texas where soils are saturated. Widespread river flooding is not expected over the next 5 days.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook


...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

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