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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1131 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015
VALID: MAY 23 THROUGH MAY 28
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...STORM SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PARTS OF THE WGRFC AREA LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...

Little change in the overall weather pattern is expected into early next week. The southwesterly upper air flow aloft will continue as upper level storm systems continue to move out of the southwestern U.S. Deep moisture will persist over the region through the weekend and early next week, with Precipitable Water (PW) values running 150 percent of normal and higher through the weekend. With a favorable pattern aloft and deep moisture in place, widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected across much of the WGRFC area. Most of Texas and western Louisiana will see precipitation, with an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain expected. Some locations will receive 5 to 7 inches (with locally higher amounts) in the more organized thunderstorm complexes. Right now the most likely locations to receive the heaviest amounts are centered on the DFW metroplex northward, and over Houston, but this could change somewhat with time.

One upper level low pressure system was located west of the four corners region this morning. As this low pulls northeastward to Wyoming by Monday morning it will help initiate widespread showers and thunderstorms across the area. Other sources of lift, including a warm front which extends across north Texas, and residual outflow boundaries from previous thunderstorms, could also help in the development of thunderstorms across the region. Where thunderstorm activity becomes more organized, locally heavy rainfall can be expected. At this time, the most favorable timing for locally heavy rainfall is later today and continuing into Sunday for most of Texas. The heaviest rain should shift into east Texas and Louisiana on Monday.

More showers and thunderstorms are forecast later Monday as the next in a series of upper air disturbances moves across Texas. However, this disturbance will move northeastward rather quickly and should be out of the region by Tuesday morning. Thereafter, a weak ridge of high pressure is forecast to move across Texas Tuesday and Wednesday which may bring a break to the widespread rainfall.

By Thursday morning a new upper air disturbance is forecast to approach our region from the west. This is forecast to produce a new area of showers and thunderstorms to southeast New Mexico and far west Texas by Thursday morning. This rain will move further east into Texas during the Thursday/Friday time frame.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Sunday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 of an inch or more are forecast for much of Texas (except for the far west and far east sections). The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 3.00 inches, are forecast from just south of Gainesville TX to the DFW metroplex. MAP amounts of 2.00 inches are forecast over much of north Texas and parts of the Texas Hill Country. Lighter amounts of MAP are forecast for much of the remaining areas of the WGRFC area of responsibility except for the southern two thirds of New Mexico.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch or more are forecast for the eastern two thirds of Texas and most of Louisiana. The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 3.00 inches, are forecast over the Houston area. MAP amounts of 1.00 inch are forecast over most of the eastern half of Texas and western Louisiana. Lighter amounts of MAP are forecast for much of the remaining areas of the WGRFC area of responsibility except for southern New Mexico and far west Texas.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch or more are forecast for the southeast two thirds of Texas and Louisiana. The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 2.00 inches, are forecast over much of east central Texas. MAP amounts of 1.00 inch are forecast over most of the southeastern half of Texas. Lighter amounts of MAP are forecast for much of the remaining areas of the WGRFC area of responsibility except for southeastern New Mexico and far west Texas.

For Tuesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch or more are forecast for east Texas into Louisiana, as well as over southeastern New Mexico and far west Texas. The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 1.50 inches, are forecast over southwest Louisiana near and north of Lake Charles. Lighter amounts of MAP are forecast for much of the remaining areas of the WGRFC area of responsibility except for the central and western parts of New Mexico and the western parts of north Texas.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Drought conditions continue to improve across most of the WGRFC area. Recent precipitation events have brought drought relief to many parts of Texas. In Texas, only about 15% of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought, and extreme to exceptional drought conditions are no longer being observed. In New Mexico, a little over a third of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (37%), and they also are free from extreme or exceptional drought conditions. Many of the lakes in Texas have levels which have begun to rise due to recent rainfall, and some lakes are full and are releasing water. The rainfall expected over the next five days over especially northern, south central and southeast Texas will be heavy enough to produce significant runoff, and minor runoff is expected over the remainder of Texas. Elsewhere over the WGRFC area no significant runoff is anticipated.





...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...Nueces Basin...
...Major Flooding...
A break in the rainfall allowed the Nueces to clear some of the water down stream. Asherton has fallen below major flood and continues to recede. The water at Cotulla continues to rise well into major and is approaching levels of the July 2002 storm, which looks to be the benchmark for the rainfall that has already occurred over this area. Downstream, Lake Corpus Christi has reduced their releases which will alleviate some of the flooding downstream, at least temporarily. Rainfall is expected to return to the area later today which could alter the current status of the river.

...Trinity Basin...
...Major Flooding...
Ongoing widespread, heavy rainfall across the entire Trinity River drainage has caused widespread bankfull, minor, and moderate flood flow conditions. Flood control reservoirs continue to store flood waters minimizing downstream flood conditions.

...Guadalupe Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
The Flood Wave on the Guadalupe River continues to move downstream. The river has already crested at Victoria and is forecast to crest later today downstream at Bloomington. It should be noted that heavy rainfall is forecast over the next couple days. This could cause additional flooding.

...Neches Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
The Neches River system remains in elevated flow levels with several locations currently in flood. The Neches River near Alto (ATOT2) is at moderate levels. Multiple other sites will remain in their minor to action stage levels with the recent rainfalls adding to the already elevated flows. Many mainstem forecast points are expected to remain in minor flood levels for at least the next week. It should be noted that heavy rainfall is forecast over the next couple days. This could cause additional flooding.

...Sabine Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Moderate flooding continues on the lower Sabine River Basin through Bon Wier (BWRT2) and Deweyville (DWYT2) as Toledo Bend Reservoir continues to pass large inflows.

...Brazos Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Higher than normal flow conditions are occurring on the lower Brazos River system. However, a couple of sites are still experiencing minor flood conditions. It should be noted that heavy rainfall is forecast over the next couple days. This could cause additional flooding.

...San Bernard Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Higher than normal flows will continue across the lower San Bernard river. Additional rainfall over the next 2-3 days will produce efficient runoff to cause higher rises; likely into minor flood levels with moderate flooding possible.

...San Jacinto Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Higher than normal flows will continue across most of the San Jacinto River system through the weekend. Additional rainfall over the next 2-3 days will produce efficient runoff to cause higher rises; likely into minor flood levels.

...Rio Grande Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Reservoirs El Cuchillo and Marte Gomez along the lower Rio San Juan in Mexico continue releasing, which are now bringing higher flows into the mainstem Rio Grande near Rio Grande City (RGDT2). These flows are then diverted as regulated between US/Mexico at Anzalduas (MADT2).

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Currently, most rivers are have ongoing flooding conditions and remain very sensitive to further rainfall. Soil conditions remain very saturated and any further rainfall will only exacerbate the ongoing flooding.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather

...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

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