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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1201 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014
VALID: SEPTEMBER 19 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 24
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED THE NEXT FIVE DAYS, WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FORECAST OVER PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...

Weak upper air disturbances, combined with an old frontal boundary, have kept scattered to numerous showers ongoing across most of the WGRFC area the past four days. In general, the upper level pattern is conducive for precipitation to continue through the weekend, with a gradual decrease in the precipitation early next week. In southeast Texas, the best chances for rain will be during the next 24 hours, with the best chances for rain shifting to the lower Texas Gulf coast over the weekend. Some flooding is possible at this time, but most locations will only see minor flood stages. Very heavy rainfall fell early Friday morning over southeast Texas where 4 to 7 inches of rain fell in the general area around Houston. Locally heavy rainfall also fell over parts of central Texas where Lometa and Tow TX received over 5.00 inches the past 24 hours.

The other focus for rainfall has been and continues to be with the remnants of Hurricane Odile which are along the Texas/New Mexico border this morning. Locally heavy rain of over 3 inches fell over west Texas near Fluvanna, Gail, and Kermit TX the past 24 hours ahead of this storm, and nearly 3 inches of rain fell over southeast New Mexico. Over the next several days, the remnants of Odile are expected to move slowly across the Texas panhandle today, then will begin to drop southward toward the Permian Basin by Sunday morning. With all the moisture in place over the area, the widespread rain will continue over eastern New Mexico into west Texas and the Texas panhandle through Saturday. flood" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">flash flooding will continue to remain the greatest concern, along with developing minor and possible moderate flooding on the Pecos River during the next two days exists. Rainfall is also expected into early next week, especially over west central and southwest Texas, depending upon the future track of Odile`s remnants. Since these remnants should be weakening over west Texas Sunday, mainly light to moderate rain is expected over this part of Texas and southeast New Mexico. We will continue to monitor the progress of this storm.

By Monday a weak cold front is forecast to move into northern and eastern Texas. At this point significant rainfall is not expected with the frontal boundary as the remnants of Odile eventually weaken further over west Texas. Behind the front, drier air will be ushered in, so rainfall will decrease further across Texas by Wednesday morning.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Saturday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 inch or more are forecast for eastern New Mexico into western and southern Texas. The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 2.00 inches, are forecast over extreme southeast New Mexico into west Texas around the Permian Basin. Lighter amounts of MAP are forecast over most of Texas, most of New Mexico, southern Colorado, and southern Louisiana.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or more are forecast for southeastern New Mexico into western, central and deep south Texas. The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 2.00 inches, are forecast just east of Lubbock around Jayton and Aspermont TX. Lighter amounts of MAP are forecast over much of the remaining sections of the WGRFC area.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or more are forecast for a good part of New Mexico, the southwest third of Texas, deep south Texas, and most of Colorado. The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 1.00 inch, are forecast over portions of southeast New Mexico, the Permian Basin northwest of Midland, and over Mexico south of Del Rio. Lighter amounts of MAP are forecast over the remaining sections of the WGRFC area except for north central and northeast Texas.

For Monday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or more are forecast for southern New Mexico, deep south Texas, and the northern Texas panhandle. The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 0.50 inch, are forecast over southeast New Mexico. Lighter amounts of MAP are forecast over the remaining sections of the WGRFC area except for north central and northeast Texas.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Drought persists but is slowly improving over Texas and New Mexico. Statewide, New Mexico has no areas of exceptional drought, while less than 2% of Texas remains in exceptional drought. Severe drought conditions are impacting less than 40% of New Mexico and 35% of Texas. No doubt the rainfall forecast the next 5 days will further alleviate some of the ongoing drought. Runoff is expected across southeast and southwest Texas, as well as over southeastern New Mexico for the next 5 days. Runoff leading to significant mainstem river flooding may occur on the Pecos River to go along with flood" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">flash flooding in southeast New Mexico and west Texas. The runoff in southeast Texas may lead to additional river flooding, but it should remain minor. No significant runoff is expected over north central and northeast Texas.





...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...Pecos Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Heavy rains have continued to affect an area from Fourmile Draw near Lakewood down to Red Bluff dam. Both Brantley Lake near Carlsbad and Red Bluff dam will receive beneficial runoff from the remnants of moisture transported into the region by Hurricane Odile. Heavy rains have continued overnight and early this morning with flashy runoff episodes as well as stream flooding.

Rainfall over Fourmile Draw near Lakewood (LKWT2) has generated enough runoff to swell into minor flood levels. This runoff will flow into Brantley Lake, which has plenty of storage in the flood pool. Other areas downstream have seen significant flashy rises over Rocky arroyo and Dark Canyon Draw as well. Lake Avalon is expected to fill and begin spilling today, which will increase flows along the Pecos mainstem.

The Black River watershed above Malaga (MLAN5) has reported enough rainfall over the past 24 hours to cause flows into minor flood criteria. This will also contribute to higher flows downstream on the mainstem of the Pecos River through the reach near Red Bluff (RBFN5) reaching minor flood levels. Red Bluff dam is reporting a rise of more than 5 feet over the past week and is also expected to spill today.

No impacts are expected further downstream as these high flows continue through sparsely populated west Texas and significantly attenuate enroute to Girvin.

...Rio Grande Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Another round of widespread 1-1.5 inches of rain from Leasburg through El Paso has finally generated some active, non-flood flows along the Rio Grande. Further downstream at the confluence with the Rio Conchos, due to continued and increasing releases from Luis Leon Reservoir, Presidio (PRST2) and other downstream locations will see higher, non-flood flows with minor flooding is possible. Expected duration and release changes are not known at this time. However, releases increased yesterday and are expected to continue increasing based on current releases from Madero Reservoir further upstream in the Rio Conchos basin in Mexico. Additionally, the higher flows routed along the mainstem from El Paso will arrive early next week to continue river rises along the Big Bend locations, but at this time, not expected to reach minor flood levels.

...San Jacinto Basin...
Rainfall continues today in the San Jacinto Basin however no additional significant rainfall is forecast in the basin for next 5 days. Cypress creek near Hockley (KHOT2) is forecast to rise above bankfull Saturday. The west fork of the San Jacinto River at Humble is forecast to remain around bankfull for the next several days.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Rainfall has continued across many parts of WGRFC with soil states nearing saturation for most areas with exception of the northeast Texas basins. These wet areas of the WGRFC will likely again see precipitation in some form of intensity today, but the current forecast displays no rises beyond minor flooding at this time.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather

...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

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