National Weather Service River Forecast Center

...PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE AREA...

Showers and thunderstorms streaming into Southeast Texas are associated with a weakening upper level disturbance. With a moist airmass in place (PW values are running 120% to 140% of normal), some thunderstorms are producing significant rainfall. This upper level disturbance will weaken as to moves to the northeast Wednesday. A zonal flow aloft will keep things quiet through the remainder of the week.

A strong upper level storm system will cross the Rockies and eject into the Central Plains late Friday. This system will help push a strong cold front through the area Saturday and Sunday. Rain chances will increase with frontal passage, especially for the southern half of Texas. Widespread significant rainfall is not expected with this system.

Milder weather is expected in the wake of this front through early next week.

For Today into Thursday morning, no significant Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Friday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Saturday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast generally east of a line from Wichita Falls to San Angelo to Del Rio. Lighter MAP amounts are expected for the remainder of Texas and for most of New Mexico.

Recent rainfall has brought significant improvement to the ongoing drought across New Mexico and Texas. Exceptional Drought conditions have been virtually eliminated (with less than 1% of Texas and 0% of New Mexico in the category). Severe drought conditions continue, with 48% of Texas and 37% of New Mexico in the category. Forecast rainfall should not significantly alter the ongoing drought, outside of Southeast Texas where minimal improvement is possible.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Other sites are forecasted to remain in bank. Coastal rainfalls will be monitored but no rises into criteria levels are expected.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

WALLER

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