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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1100 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016
VALID: AUGUST 25 THROUGH AUGUST 30
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...RAINS TO CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH FOCUS ON THE MONSOONAL ACTIVITIES IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE WGRFC...

A cold front reached New Mexico overnight and is now advancing east into the Rio Grande Valley. Additional atmospheric moisture from the Pacific will enhance the likelihood of storm chances through Friday, with locally heavy rain and a moderate increase in localized flash flood potential. A large subtropical ridge over the Southeast U.S. will keep the trough from moving east any time soon so storm chances will linger through the week. The potential for heavy rain should be monitored as a high levels of atmosphere moisture remains in place through the weekend. The heaviest amounts of rain are expected over west Texas and eastern New Mexico from today into Friday.

North and Central Texas has been relatively dry pattern for much of the week, as the subtropical upper high over the southeastern US continued to expanding westward over the area. The upper level high, though, is going to shift slightly eastward the next few days. As a result, by Friday morning an easterly wave of low pressure may will move over east Texas which will likely bring a chance for showers to east Texas and most of Louisiana. Then by Saturday this wave may produce some rain closer to southeast Texas and the entire Texas Gulf coast.

A drying trend will begin Sunday, then intensify roughly the first half of the work week. The eastern US ridge of high pressure will build back westward once again and deliver mostly dry conditions to most of Texas away from the Gulf shoreline. But over the west high pressure off Baja California is forecast to build toward New Mexico and camp out for at least a while over the four corners area by midweek next week. Since there will continue to be high amounts of atmospheric moisture present from the eastern Pacific the latter half of this week, diurnal showers and thunderstorms will be possible especially across far west Texas.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Friday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch are forecast for far west Texas and the eastern half of New Mexico and for a small portion of southeast Texas.

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch are forecast for the eastern third of Texas.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch are forecast for the El Paso area and for the Houston area.

For Sunday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 are forecast for the El Paso across the southeastern section of New Mexico and into the Texas Panhandle and for the Texas coast.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

After the widespread rain the past seven days over parts of New Mexico and Texas, drought conditions have eased somewhat. The U.S. Drought Monitor has categorized Texas as 29% abnormally dry, with less than 1% in severe drought. Over New Mexico, 88% of the state is abnormally dry, and 24% remains in the moderate drought category. The showers and thunderstorms forecast this week will keep more serious drought conditions from developing over the WGRFC region, while many sections continue drought-free. Since topsoil has become moister, some runoff is possible where the heaviest rain is forecast. However, as the weather dries out some this week most of the runoff will be insignificant across the majority of the WGRFC area.





...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...San Antonio Basin...
...Major Flooding...
The San Antonio River at Runge has crested and is falling rapidly. That water has reached Goliad (GLIT2) and should be cresting later today near major flood before receding rapidly as well.

...Guadalupe Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Lower end of the Guadalupe River continues to move flood waters to the Gulf. Sandies creek (WHOT2) has crested and is expected to fall below minor flood later today. The Guadalupe at Victoria (VICT2) has crested and will continue to stay elevated as water from upstream works through the area. Bloomington (DUPT2) still on the rise but should crest later today in moderate flood before receding.

...Nueces Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
The upper Nueces basin continues to deal with the heavy rainfall that fell over the weekend which will create out of bank flow at a few sites. The Nueces River at Three Rivers (THET2) is in moderate flood now and should crest shortly before a fairly rapid recession over the next couple of days.

...Trinity Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Out of bank to minor flooding continues in the upper West Fork of the Trinity River from releases from Bridgeport. This should continue for the next several days.

...Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Middle Yegua creek near Dime Box (DMYT2) has crested and continues to fall below flood stage. The Brazos River at Hempstead (HPDT2) has crested and is falling with Richmond (RMOT2) cresting now above action stage. No further rises are expected.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Rainfall has tapered off for the area, so all other sites will remain in bank and on the recession as water works its way downstream. Soils are back to being fairly saturated which will lead to more frequent flooding if rainfall were to occur over the next 5 days.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather

...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

CAZIER

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