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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1138 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014
VALID: JULY 29 THROUGH AUGUST 3
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THROUGH TOMORROW...

Portions of New Mexico continue to receive significant rainfall this morning. An area of showers and thunderstorms will continue across Eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle over the next several hours. Over a 24-hour period, areas across Eastern New Mexico received 2.00 to 3.00 inches and the Roswell airport in New Mexico reported a 24 hour total of 2.23 inches. Rainfall amounts this morning were averaging close to an inch or more an hour, however amounts since then have tapered off to around 0.50 to 1.00 inch per hour. The latest water vapor imagery shows an area of drier air moving into portions of western New Mexico and this is likely aiding in the decrease in moisture over the area. Elsewhere across the WGRFC region, no significant rainfall or flooding is occurring at this time.

The cold front that moved across portions of North and Central Texas on yesterday, remains draped across south central Texas now. The lack of strong southerly flow at the surface will inhibit any source of large scale moisture limiting the rainfall chances for most of Texas, over the next day or so. However strong convergence near the surface low in southern Colorado should generate enough instability to create a pretty good rainfall system north of the WGRFC...mainly across the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma. Though enhanced rainfall will continue in the monsoonal areas of New Mexico from this system. Some basins across the Pecos river system have responded from recent rainfall, however no significant flooding is expected at this time. We will continue to monitor in case any isolated regions receive significant amounts.

Looking in the extended look, the surface low pressure system should move along the upper level trough axis, and with the current forecast will stay too far north to create any major rainfall impact to north Texas late this week. There is a chance that rainfall will creep into north Texas bringing some precipitation, but a glancing blow is the best that can be expected. This is all contingent on the forecast of the upper level trough being accurate, a shift to the south and west will help north Texas chances for increased precipitation. As the front gets closer to the coast as well, moisture availability will increase and higher rainfall values are possible looking as far as Friday. Portions of southeast and East Texas are likely to receive the most beneficial rainfall during this time period.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Wednesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 1.00 to 1.50 inches are forecast for portions of Eastern New Mexico also the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 2.00 to 3.00 inches are forecast for portions of Central Oklahoma. Lesser amounts of 1.00 to 2.00 inches are forecast for portions of the Red River area and North Texas. Lesser amounts are forecast for portions of southern Colorado and northern New Mexico.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 1.00 to 1.50 inches are forecast for portions of southeast and East Texas. Lesser amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for portions of southern Colorado and northern New Mexico.

For Friday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of up to 1.00 inch are forecast for portions of New Mexico and Colorado.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Extreme to exceptional drought persists over parts of southwest Texas, as well as over the western parts of north Texas into the Texas Panhandle and northeast New Mexico. Statewide, less than 1% of New Mexico and about 3% of Texas are in exceptional drought. But, severe drought conditions are impacting 78% of New Mexico and 33% of Texas. The monsoonal rains in New Mexico have reduced the drought conditions over the past couple weeks, while over Texas the drought has diminished over roughly the southeast quarter. More rain is forecast the next 5 days over New Mexico which will help to ease the drought conditions, but over Texas rainfall amounts will be minimal and will be concentrated mainly along and near the Gulf coast. Therefore, no significant runoff is expected the next 5 days.





...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...Pecos Basin...
Monsoonal activity continues in eastern New Mexico with widespread beneficial rains. Some locally heavy rains have been reported over the past day or so but no significant rises have been noted at this time. This activity is expected to continue through the forecast period.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
All WGRFC river forecast locations are flowing near or below normal for this time of year. Soil moisture conditions are continuing to dry across the area. No significant flooding is expected through the end of the forecast period.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather

...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

MCCANTS

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