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A weak upper level trough is moving through the central United States today, but without Gulf moisture available, the system will remain dry over the WGRFC area. However, a developing closed low in the Central Plains is expected to establish conditions favorable for drawing moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into south and possibly southeastern Texas by Tuesday morning. With this moisture in place, rainshowers may develop midday continuing until late evening or early Wednesday morning. This disturbance is then expected to move rapidly into the Gulf with storms exiting the WGRFC area by Wednesday. No other significant precipitation events are anticipated in Texas through the remainder of the forecast period.
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For Today into Monday morning, no significant Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. |
For Monday into Tuesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. |
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For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inches of rain may occur in south Texas hugging the coast northward to Matagorda Bay. Lesser amounts of precipitation may occur further inland from Del Rio in south Texas along the Rio Grande through the hill country northeast through Waco and then through the border near Paris, Texas, including most of east Texas. Locally heavier amounts of rain can be anticipated offshore. |
For Wednesday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. |
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The most recent rainfall totals have generated some runoff in south Texas, across southeast Texas and the Texas Gulf coast with continued significant flooding in the lower portions of the coastal watersheds. The additional rainfall amounts for this forecast period are not expected to impact those areas currently in flood. |
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...Guadalupe Basin... ...Major Flooding... Sandies creek near Westhoff (WHOT2) has finally crested near 25 feet and will drop below major flood criteria this afternoon. A minor wave has developed on the mainstem and is past Gonzales (GNLT2) and has combined with the Flood Wave on Sandies creek. The Guadalupe River at Cuero has risen above flood stage but is expected to crest well below moderate flood levels. However, this wave will bring the Guadalupe River at Victoria (VICT2) into moderate flood conditions within the next day or two and Bloomington (DUPT2), already in moderate flood conditions, is likely to crest near its major flood level sometime later this week. Coleto creek Reservoir (CKDT2), which has finally returned to conservation pool, so is now considered full. The reservoir is releasing the extra water still entering the lake, which is adding to the flows downstream at Bloomington. ...Lavaca-Navidad Basin... ...Trinity Basin... ...Sabine Basin... ...Nueces Basin... ...San Antonio Basin... ...Lower Brazos Basin... ...Neches Basin... ...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
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The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://www.weather.gov/rivers_tab.php The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/?n=wgrfcfop National Precipitation Analysis: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/rfcshare/precip_analysis_new.php The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/drought_assessment.shtml CAZIER $$
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