Over the last 24 hours, rainfall has occurred primarily from central Texas into northeast Texas and northwestern Louisiana. Significant rainfall has occurred mainly around Shreveport, Louisiana. This rainfall is expected to continue most of today across east Texas. An upper level storm system over southern New Mexico is forecast to drift eastward into western Texas today. In addition, a weak frontal boundary is forecast to linger across central and eastern Texas. As the upper level storm system moves eastward today across Texas into Oklahoma, it will provide the lift necessary to generate additional showers and thunderstorms. The heaviest rainfall is forecast over eastern Texas and eastward into the Lower Mississippi Valley. This rainfall is expected to end on Friday bringing dry weather over most of the WGRFC area this weekend.

A second upper level storm system is forecast to dig into the desert southwest this weekend. This second storm system will bring the chance for showers and thunderstorms along the Rio Grande Valley through the weekend. This system is forecast to weaken as it drifts eastward the first of next week. Therefore, only light to moderate amounts of precipitation are expected with this system. The WGRFC area will continue to maintain situational awareness for this ongoing rain event.

For Today into Thursday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts 1.00 to 2.00 inches are forecast over portions of northeast Texas, mainly over the Sabine River basin. MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1.00 inch are forecast over the eastern third of Texas, and over extreme north Texas across the Texas Panhandle and into northern New Mexico.

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast over southeast Texas into Louisiana. This same amount is also forecast over parts of New Mexico and southern Colorado.

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast over far south Texas.

For Saturday into Monday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

The rainfall forecast for the next 5 days may cause higher than normal flows with the possibility of moderate flooding at isolated areas in east Texas. The WGRFC will continue to monitor this developing situation.

...Colorado Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Widespread heavy rains from 2 to 3 inches fell across the San Saba River basin in the last 24 hours. Isolated flash flooding is possible however no main stem river flooding is expected.

...Lower Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Runoff from this morning`s rainfall combined with releases from Lake Whitney have generated a small wave that will move down the mainstem of the Brazos River. When this wave reaches Bryan, the river will approach action stage. We will continue monitoring the upstream conditions and will likely issue a forecast this evening.

...Sabine Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
The middle to upper Sabine received heavy rainfall in the last 24 hours. A COCORAHS observer reported a 24 hour total of 6.15 inches at Marshall 15.2 SE. Minor to Moderate flooding is possible between Longview and Logansport as runoff from this rainfall materializes.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Drought conditions continue in west Texas and the southern portion of the state. Over the eastern half of the WGRFC area, soils are wet from recent rains. Reservoirs that are above conservation level will continue releases as operating requirements allow. The uppermost portion of the Rio Grande in Colorado and northern New Mexico has higher than normal flows due to the spring snow runoff. Rainfall is forecast to occur over the eastern portions of Texas this week which could cause rises on area streams and rivers.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://www.weather.gov/rivers_tab.php

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/fop/wgrfcfop.html

MPE Precipitation Estimates: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/precip/html/mpe_estimates.shtml

National Precipitation Analysis: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/rfcshare/precip_analysis_new.php

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/hydromet/qpf/qpfpage.html

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/drought_assessment.shtml

SHULTZ

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