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...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

ISSUED: 1149 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016
VALID: MAY 28 THROUGH JUNE 2
Day 1 Surface Map Jump To Hydro Section Jump To Hydro Section
Day 2 Surface Map

Day 3 Surface Map

...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...

An upper level low pressure system is located over northeastern Nebraska this morning. As the upper low moved out of Colorado into Nebraska the past 24 hours, drier air moved into Texas from the west. The last of the thunderstorms which were over east and southeast Texas Friday moved southeast into Louisiana and over the Gulf of Mexico last night. Localized flooding rainfall occurred over the southeastern third of Texas before it ended. Parts of east central and southeast Texas received in excess of 4.00 inches of rain the past 24 hours, with amounts of over 6 inches near The Woodlands and a maximum rainfall of 7.65 inches near Woodville.

The region is getting a break from the rainfall today. But yet another storm system will be developing which will bring more rain to WGRFC`s area later this weekend into next week. By this evening the next low pressure system will be forming south of San Francisco CA. Moisture well out ahead of this low will move up the Rio Grande, and this moisture will combine with an upper air disturbance to produce some rain over southwest Texas and northern Mexico tonight. This disturbance will spread up into north Texas Sunday, bringing a chance for light precipitation. The dryline is also forecast to be active Sunday afternoon and evening so showers and thunderstorms will produce rain over west Texas.

By Monday morning the upper low will move into western Arizona. This will result in the dryline becoming active once again in western Texas Monday. Then this low will remain nearly stationary Tuesday so portions of northern and western Texas areas will continue to see areas of rainfall, especially along and ahead of the dryline over western and central Texas where the strongest thunderstorms are expected.

The upper air disturbance is forecast to move over Texas Wednesday. In addition, a cold front is forecast to move into the state from the northwest. Therefore, more showers and thunderstorms are expected over Texas Wednesday into Thursday morning, with locally heavy rainfall possible.



...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

Day 1: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 2: 24-Hour Rainfall Total

For Today into Sunday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 inch or more are forecast for west and southwestern Texas. The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 1.00 inch, are forecast for the Rio Grande area east of Del Rio. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for southern Colorado, extreme northern New Mexico, a good part of western Texas, and western Louisiana.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or more are forecast for western and northern Texas. The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 2.00 inches, are forecast for the Red River valley around Childress. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for most of Colorado, extreme northern and eastern New Mexico, and most of Texas and Louisiana.

Day 3: 24-Hour Rainfall Total Day 4-5: 48-Hour Rainfall Total

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or more are forecast for a good part of Texas. The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 1.00 inch, are forecast just north of the Red River. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for most of Colorado, eastern New Mexico, most of Texas, and northern Louisiana.

For Tuesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or more are forecast for most of Texas, eastern New Mexico, southeast Colorado, and northwest Louisiana. The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 2.00 inches, are forecast southeast of Childress, and from south of San Antonio through Austin and Waco to just east of the DFW metroplex. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for most of the WGRFC area of responsibility.

5 Day Total Rainfall Forecast

Soils continue to be moist across the majority Texas, especially the eastern half. Only 3% of Texas is categorized as abnormally dry, with no moderate or greater drought noted. Over New Mexico, 83% of the state is abnormally dry, and 37% remains in the moderate drought category. With soils being so wet, runoff is expected from the forecast rainfall again next week over northern and central Texas. Over the remainder of the WGRFC area little runoff will occur.





...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

Current - Hydrology Of The Day
Current - Status Map

...San Jacinto Basin...
...Major Flooding...
Widespread flooding continues across the San Jacinto river basin with most locations continuing to rise.

...Colorado Basin...
...Major Flooding...
Pockets of heavy rainfall produced widespread rises and river flooding downstream of the Austin area. Major Flooding is expected from Bastrop to Wharton.

...Trinity Basin...
...Major Flooding...
Widespread minor to major flooding continues in the Trinity river basin with the majority of those flooding locations continuing to rise as water moves downstream.

...Brazos Basin...
...Major Flooding...
Moderate to major flood conditions are occurring in the Brazos River basin. The Brazos mainstem from Washington through Hempstead (HPDT2) and Richmond (RMOT2) to Rosharon (ROST2) is or will experience moderate and major flood levels through the weekend into early next week.

...Guadalupe Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Flooding at Bloomington (DUPT2) will fluctuate at moderate flood levels from this additional rainfall.

...Neches Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
The forecast points in the Neches basin are slow responding and will crest in the next two to three days. Three locations are expected to ruse into moderate flood levels over the next few days. These sites are Rockland (ROKT2), Town Bluff (TBFT2) and Beaumont (BEAT2).

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
The remaining river systems across the WGRFC area remain relatively wet, especially the eastern half of Texas, and additional rainfall expected within the next 5 days will likely generate river responses which could lead to more river action level and flood level flows.

12z-24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation Total
Excessive Rainfall Forecast

5 Day River Flood Outlook Potential
Drought Monitor


Drought Outlook

Link To Tropical Weather Link To Tropical Weather

...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

STORY

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