Hydrologic Verification of Tropical Storm Erin for the West Gulf River Forecast Center August 16-18, 2007
Rainfall

As most interests focused on Hurricane Dean crossing the Caribbean, Tropical Storm Erin formed and moved onshore near Victoria in the morning hours of August 16th, 2007, as a minimal Tropical Storm. History and experience has taught us that the strength of the tropical system is not indicative of its potential to produce heavy rainfall. Over the next 48 to 72 hours, heavy rain impacted South Central and West Central Texas, and Central Oklahoma associated with the center of circulation, and heavy rain impacted Southeast Texas associated with a training spiral band.

TS Erin Satellite

                           

WGRFC 24 Hour Quantative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) from the morning of August 16th captured the overall focus of the heavy rainfall threat, focused around the center of circulation.

MPE Derived Precipitation ending 12Z August 17th.

WGRFC 24 Hour QPF) from the morning of August 17th again focused the heavy rainfall threat in the vicinity of the center of circulation and on a "training" mesoscale environment over Southeast and East Texas.

MPE Derived Precipitation ending 12Z August 18th.

WGRFC 24 Hour (QPF) from the morning of August 18th shifted the focus for heavy rainfall toward the Red River, out of the WGRFC area of responsibility.

MPE Derived Precipitation ending 12Z August 19th.

                           

WGRFC QPF verified by the National Precipitation Verification Unit (NPVU). This shows an office improvement of both models and national center guidance in the 1.00 inch or greater (most hydrologically critical for this event) category.

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