ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-271800-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-
WAGONER OK-WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
100 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2005

TO: FAMILY OF SERVICES /FOS/ SUBSCRIBERS...NOAA WEATHER WIRE
SERVICE /NWWS/ SUBSCRIBERS...EMERGENCY MANAGERS WEATHER
INFORMATION NETWORK /EMWIN/ SUBSCRIBERS...NOAAPORT
SUBSCRIBERS...OTHER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE /NWS/
CUSTOMERS AND PARTNERS...NWS EMPLOYEES

FROM: STEVEN F. PILTZ
METEOROLOGIST IN CHARGE
NWS FORECAST OFFICE TULSA OK

SUBJECT: CHANGE IN THE FLOOD STAGE FOR THE RIVER FORECAST POINT ON
LEE CREEK NEAR VAN BUREN...EFFECTIVE JUNE 28 2005

ON TUESDAY...JUNE 28 2005....THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA
OKLAHOMA WILL CHANGE THE FLOOD STAGE FOR THE RIVER FORECAST POINT ON
LEE CREEK NEAR VAN BUREN FROM 23 FEET TO 401 FEET.

THIS CHANGE APPEARS MORE DRASTIC THAN IT REALLY IS. THE NEW FLOOD
STAGE IS BASED ON THE HEIGHT ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL /MSL/. THE
PREVIOUS FLOOD STAGE WAS BASED ON MEASURED WATER ELEVATION ABOVE A
PRESET LEVEL.

THE NEW FLOOD STAGE WILL BE BASED ON THE WATER LEVEL BELOW THE DAM
JUST NORTHWEST OF VAN BUREN. THIS TAILWATER MEASUREMENT WILL
PROVIDE A MORE REALISTIC ASSESMENT OF FLOOD POTENTIAL DOWNSTREAM OF
THE DAM AND MORE ACCURATELY MEASURE THE INFLUENCE OF BACKWATER FROM
THE NEARBY ARKANSAS RIVER. FLOODING IS MORE LIKELY ON LEE CREEK
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE DAM WHENEVER THE ARKANSAS RIVER IS ALSO HIGH.

THE NEW TAILWATER MEAUREMENTS AT THE LEE CREEK DAM WILL BE PROVIDED
BY THE CITY OF FORT SMITH...THE OWNER OF THE DAM.

THIS CHANGE IN FLOOD STAGE HAS BEEN COORDINATED WITH THE U.S. ARMY
CORPS OF ENGINEERS...U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...THE CRAWFORD COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY...THE CITY OF VAN BUREN AND THE CITY OF
FORT SMITH.

THERE WILL BE NO CHANGE IN THE NWS FORECAST AND WARNING SERVICES FOR
THOSE IMPACTED BY LEE CREEK DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LEE CREEK DAM SITE.
HOWEVER...PEOPLE AFFECTED WILL NEED TO KNOW THE NEW FLOOD STAGE.
FOR A TIME...IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO RELATE FORECASTED TAILWATER
HEIGHTS TO PAST EVENTS. WITH TIME... THOUGH...THE CHANGE SHOULD
PROVIDE AFFECTED USERS WITH A BETTER FORECAST.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WELCOMES PUBLIC FEEDBACK. IF YOU HAVE
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ON THIS CHANGE...PLEASE CONTACT:

ALVIN HONG
SERVICE HYDROLOGIST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE
10159 EAST 11 TH STREET SUITE 300
TULSA OK 74128
PHONE: 918-838-7838
E-MAIL: AL.HONG@NOAA.GOV

$$