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November & Autumn 2012  

  • Fort Smith received 4.15" below the normal November rainfall (1981-2010) this month, making it the 2nd driest November on record.  The current record is 0.26" in 1904.  Rain was recorded on 4 days in November 2012.
  • Using the radar-derived estimated observed precipitation from the RFCs, rainfall totals for November 2012 were 1.5” or less for all of eastern OK and northwest AR.  This represents 50% or less of the normal November rainfall.  Portions of west central AR and southeast OK received less than 0.5”, which is less than 10% of the normal rainfall for the month.   The worst off, however, included areas of Choctaw and southern Pushmataha Counties, where less than 0.1” of rain, less than 5% of normal, fell this month.
  • No river flooding occurred this month.
  • According to the Drought Monitor from November 27, 2012, all of eastern OK and northwest AR was in Severe to Exceptional drought.  Exceptional (D4) drought was occurring over portions of Osage, Pawnee, and Washington Counties in eastern OK.  Severe (D2) drought was present across portions of Ottawa, Craig, Rogers, Mayes, and Delaware Counties in eastern OK, and Benton, northern Carroll, Crawford, and southern northern Franklin Counties in northwest AR.  Extreme drought (D3) conditions existed across the remainder of the area.
  • In 2012, Tulsa, Fort Smith, and Fayetteville all had their RECORD warmest January 1 - November 30 period for their respective periods of record. 
Autumn (September - October - November) 2012
  • According to the Oklahoma Climatological Survey, Autumn 2012 was the 15th driest for northeast Oklahoma, the 14th driest for east central Oklahoma, and the 2nd driest for southeast Oklahoma. Records go back to 1921.
Outlook
  • The Climate Prediction Center CPC outlook for December 2012 (issued November 30, 2012) indicates an enhanced chance for above normal temperatures and equal chances for above, near, and below median precipitation across all of eastern OK and northwest AR. This outlook is based primarily on short-range computer models, as a warm start to the month is expected for much of the southern and central U.S.
  • For the 3-month period Dec-Jan-Feb 2012-13, CPC is forecasting an equal chance for above, near, and below average temperatures across far northeast OK and far northwest AR, with a slightly enhanced chance for above normal temperatures elsewhere. This outlook also calls for a slightly enhanced chance for above median precipitation for the Tennessee Valley and possibly as far west as eastern OK and northwest AR (outlook issued November 15, 2012).  This outlook is based on dynamic computer model output, statistical tools, and long-term trends.
  • According to CPC, ENSO neutral conditions are expected during the upcoming winter and El Niño is no longer anticipated. ENSO neutral conditions continued through November. 
 

 


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