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May 2013 & Spring 2013

  • Using the radar-derived estimated observed precipitation from the RFCs, rainfall totals for May 2013 ranged from 3” to 17”, with a large portion of the area receiving 5”-10”. This resulted in much of the region having 100% to over 200% percent of the normal May rainfall. However, far southeast Oklahoma and portions of northeast Oklahoma southeast of I-44 and north of I-40 only had 50% to 90% of the normal May rainfall.
  • May 2013 was a tumultuous month across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, with snow, tornadoes, flooding, and drought. 13 forecast points went into minor or moderate flood due to rainfall this month, with the Neosho River and Kiamichi River both flooding twice.
  • According to the Drought Monitor from May 28, 2013, only a small portion of eastern Oklahoma remained in Moderate to Severe drought. This Drought Monitor, however, does not include the heavy rain that fell over the drought areas during the last few days of May 2013. As of May 28, severe (D2) drought was present across eastern Kay, Osage, Pawnee, Washington, and Nowata Counties in eastern Oklahoma. Moderate (D1) conditions existed over sections of far western Craig, southeast Nowata, Rogers, Tulsa, and northern Creek Counties in eastern Oklahoma. Abnormally dry conditions continued in portions of Craig, Rogers, Tulsa, southern Creek, Okmulgee, and northern Okfuskee Counties in eastern Oklahoma.
  • According to the Oklahoma Climatological Survey, the 30-day period May 2-31, 2013 was the 16th wettest for northeast Oklahoma, the 29th wettest for east central Oklahoma, and the 33rd wettest for southeast Oklahoma. Records go back to 1921.
  • According to the Oklahoma Climatological Survey, for Spring 2013, northeast Oklahoma ranked as 24th wettest, east central Oklahoma ranked as 25th wettest, and southeast Oklahoma ranked as 37th wettest. Records go back to 1921.
Spring (March - April - May) 2013
Outlook
  • The Climate Prediction Center CPC outlook for June 2013 (issued May 31, 2013) indicates equal chances for above, near, and below normal temperatures and precipitation across all of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. This outlook is based primarily on dynamical computer models, as well as climate forcing mechanisms such as soil conditions and decadal-timescale climate trends.
  • For the 3-month period June-July-August 2013, CPC is forecasting an enhanced chance for above normal temperatures and an equal chance for above, near, and below median precipitation across all of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas (outlook issued May 16, 2013). Tthis outlook is primarily based on recent trends and dynamic computer model output, with some input from statistical forecast tools and long-term trends.
  • According to CPC, ENSO neutral conditions remained through May. ENSO neutral conditions are expected to continue through Summer 2013, followed by uncertain conditions in the ENSO state from late 2013 and beyond.
 

 


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