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June 2013

  • Using the radar-derived estimated observed precipitation from the RFCs, rainfall totals for June 2013 ranged from 0.50” to 7”, with a large portion of the area receiving 2”-5”. However, much of northwest Arkansas only received 0.50” to near 2” this month. Only a few spots in southeast Oklahoma ended June with above normal rainfall. The majority of the area had only 25% to 90% of the normal June rainfall, while much of northwest Arkansas only received 10% to 50% of the normal rainfall for the month.
  • Despite a wet start to the month, June 2013 saw below normal rainfall and a mostly quiet weather pattern for the last half of the month.
  • According to the Drought Monitor from June 25, 2013, only northeast Kay County and the portion of Osage County near the Oklahoma-Kansas state line remained in Moderate (D1) Drought in eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Portions of Osage, Pawnee, Washington, Nowata, and northern Tulsa Counties in northeast Oklahoma were classified as abnormally dry (D0), but not experiencing drought conditions.
  • According to the Oklahoma Climatological Survey, June 2013 was the 19th driest for northeast Oklahoma, the 45th wettest for east central Oklahoma, and the 31st wettest for southeast Oklahoma. Records go back to 1921.
Outlook
  • The Climate Prediction Center CPC outlook for July 2013 (issued June 30, 2013) indicates equal chances for above, near, and below normal temperatures and precipitation across all of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. This outlook is based primarily on dynamical computer models, which indicate near or below normal temperatures are more likely during the first half of the month and no clear temperature signal is indicated for the full month of July.
  • For the 3-month period July-August-September 2013, CPC is forecasting an enhanced chance for above normal temperatures and an equal chance for above, near, and below median precipitation across all of eastern OK and northwest AR (outlook issued June 20, 2013). This outlook is primarily based on recent trends and dynamic computer model output, with some input from statistical forecast tools and long-term trends.
  • According to CPC, ENSO neutral conditions remained through June. ENSO neutral conditions are expected to continue through Summer 2013, followed by high uncertainty in the ENSO state from late 2013 onwards.
 

 


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