SR/SSD 98-11

4-1-98

Technical Attachment

TDL Plans for Centralized Statistical Guidance (January 1998)

Attached are two diagrams detailing TDL's plans for development and implementation of the next generation of MOS guidance. In this context, implementation is defined as provision of the appropriate products on the AWIPS Satellite Broadcast Network. The first diagram (labeled Primary) lists activities to be accomplished with currently available resources during the next two years. The second diagram (labeled Optional) lists additional development to be done as resources permit. Since TDL is currently involved in writing a new generation of software for developing and implementing the statistical guidance, implementation of the new MOS guidance is predicated upon completion of the software system. Termed MOS-2000, this system incorporates modernized software and better methods of packing the model and observational data. Successful implementation is also predicated upon efficient staff within TDL. Although TDL has received requirements for specific weather element guidance from NCEP's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center and Storm Prediction Center and from OM's efforts to produce probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts, the definitions of most of the elements shown in the diagrams correspond to past requirements and not to new requirements from OM or OH.

The assumption underlying the primary plan are as follows:

The optional plan essentially provides additional AVN MOS guidance for the 0000 and 1200 UTC cycles, speeds up development of the AVN MOS guidance for the 0600 and 1800 UTC cycles, and adds weather elements to the Eta MOS package.

Issues that need to be addressed:

Reproduced from Western Region Technical Attachment.