SR/SSD 97-27

Technical Attachment



September 1997

The following papers which will comprise a special issue of the AMS journal Weather and Forecasting (September 1997) were authored by NWS Southern Region forecasters and faculty or students at universities working in association with NWS offices. While the papers hardly encompass the full range of meteorological and hydrologic problems faced by forecasters in the region, they do illustrate many of the important problems, and they reflect the extent of collaborative activities that are under way in the region.


The discrimination between tornadic and non-tornadic supercell environments: A forecasting challenge in the southern United States. Corey Mead (NWSO Midland).

STORMTIPE-95: Results from a convective storm forecast experiment. Louis Wicker and Michael Kay (CIAMS/Texas A&M University) and Mike Foster (NWSFO Fort Worth).

Peninsular Florida tornado outbreaks. Bart Hagemeyer (NWSO Melbourne).

A WSR-88D assessment of tropical cyclone outer rainband tornadoes. Scott Spratt and David Sharp (NWSO Melbourne), Pat Welsh and Al Sandrik (NWSO Jacksonville), Frank Alsheimer and Charlie Paxton (NWSO Tampa Bay Area).

Characteristics of cloud-to-ground lightning associated with violent tornadoes. Anthony Perez (NWSO Flagstaff), Louis Wicker and Richard Orville (CIAMS/Texas A&M University).

Physical initialization and hurricane ensemble forecasts. T.N. Krishnamurti, Ricardo Correa-Torres, Greg Rohaly, and Darlene Oosterhof (CITM/Florida State University), and Naomi Surgi (NCEP/National Hurricane Center).

A ten-year monthly lightning climatology of Florida: 1986 through 1995. Stephen Hodanish and David Sharp (NWSO Melbourne), Waylon Collins and Charlie Paxton (NWSO Tampa Bay Area), and Richard Orville (CIAMS/Texas A&M University).

Operations of the National Weather Service Spaceflight Meteorology Group. Frank Brody, Dan Bellue, and Richard Lafosse (SMG Houston), and Timothy Oram (United Space Alliance, JSC, Houston).

Cloud-to-ground lightning precipitation relationships in the south-central United States. Scott Sheridan, John Griffiths, and Richard Orville (CIAMS/Texas A&M University).

A comparison of WSR-88D Storm Total Precipitation performance during two tropical systems following changes to the multivariate bias and the upper reflectivity threshold. Peggy Glitto (NWSO Melbourne) and Lt. Barry Choy (National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center, Chanhassen, MN).

VIL density as a hail indicator. Steven Amburn and Peter Wolf (NWSO Tulsa).

A statistical method for forecasting rainfall over Puerto Rico. M. M. Carter and J. B. Elsner (CITM/Florida State University).

Fog forecasting within the Southern Region: A conceptual model approach. Paul Croft (Jackson State University), Russell Pfost (NWSFO Jackson), Jeffrey Medlin (NWSO Mobile), and G. Alan Johnson (NWSFO New Orleans Area).

Synoptic scale features associated with warm season heavy rainfall over the interior southeastern United States. Charles Konrad II (University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill).

Forecaster's Forum:

"Bookend Vortex" induced tornadoes along the Natchez Trace. Russell Pfost and Alan Gerard (NWSFO Jackson).