SR SSD 2000-32
12/2000

Technical Attachment

Numerical Models, Model Output, and Related Items (Including Training)

Bernard N. Meisner
Scientific Services Division
NWS Southern Region

During the meeting of Southern Region MICs and HICs in early November, 2000, I presented information on subjects related to the title of this note. Following is a summary of related, and I hope useful, links which will provide more information and some of the graphics which I used in my presentation.

1. Links to a Web version of my numerical models presentation are available on the Southern Region NWP Links page:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ftproot/ssd/NWPMODEL/HTML/nwplinks.htm

or by clicking my picture on my home page: SSD ==> Staff ==> Bernard

2. Links to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model development are:

http://wrf-model.org and http://wrf.fsl.noaa.gov

3. The link to the quasi-operational NCEP Short-Range Ensemble project is:

http://lnx48.wwb.noaa.gov/SREF/SREF.html

There is a good review article on ensemble forecasting starting on page 2653 of the November 2000 Bulletin of the AMS. Note also the article entitled "Ensemble Primer," by Jon Ahlquist (FSU/CITM), Joel K. Sivillo and Zoltan Toth which appeared in the December 1997 issue of Weather and Forecasting, and the article entitled "Using Ensembles for Short-Range Forecasting" by David Stensrud et al. in the April 1999 issue of Monthly Weather Review.

4. Background information concerning the new AVN- and MRF-based MOS guidance is available at:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/tdl/synop/mos2000.htm

and the related Technical Procedures Bulletin #463 is at:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/tpb/indexb.htm

Forecasters should be comparing the AVN- and MRF-based guidance products with the NGM-based MOS in order to prepare for the elimination of the NGM-based guidance which expected to occur next April 1. Ken Waters reports that the new AVN- and MRF-based text bulletins (MAV and MEX, respectively) are being sent over the AWIPS Satellite Broadcast Network but they were not being stored on the SRH AWIPS. Subsequent to the MIC/HIC meeting he modified our AWIPS to store these messages in the SRH AWIPS data base and on the SRH Web server.

5. Background information concerning the Local AWIPS MOS Program (LAMP) can be found at:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/tdl/lamp/lamp.html

with the real-time analyses and products available at:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/tdl/lamp/

6. The link to the WFO State College/Penn State medium-range ensembles with departures from climatology is:

http://nws.met.psu.edu/models/ensembles/index.html

7. To view recent biases of the operational models one can use the interactive HPC Model Biases Web page at:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mdlbias

8. At least one office indicated they were not seeing the 120-hr AVN forecasts on their AWIPS. Note that an AWIPS patch must be installed to get the 120-hr AVN grids to display.

9. Output from the NOAA Wave Watch III model is available at:

http://polar.wwb.noaa.gov/waves/Welcome.html

with relevant training material located at:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/ecal.asp

and the draft Technical Procedures Bulletin is at:

http://polar.wwb.noaa.gov/omb/tpbs/nww3tpb/nww3tpb.html

10. Concerning NWP training materials, the Numerical Weather Prediction PDS is being revised to speed up completion of that PDS and improve it's applicability to forcaster needs. Meanwhile, and as part of that, the VISIT program has announced a new teletraining session entitled: "Using AWIPS to Evaluate Model Initialization." The Users' Guide for this training is available at:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/modelinit.html

Offices can register for the teletraining through:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/ecal.asp