Medium Range Forecast Exercise for Tallahassee, Florida: A Prototype for Forecasting Along the Gulf Coast in Fall

Part I: Formulation of Day-5 Forecast for Tallahassee, Florida (TLH) for 28 October 2003

1. Section 1a. Synoptic setting based on NWP model initializations of 0000 UTC 23 October 2003
   
2. Section 1b. Use of the 5-Wave Graphic
   
3. Section 1c. The Eastern Pacific Tropical System
   
4. Section 2. Inspection of NWP Model Forecasts
   
5. Section 3. Consideration of GFS MEX MOS
   
6. Section 4. Day 5 Forecst for Tallahassee
   

Part II: GFS Model Verification for 28 October 2003

Part III: Observed Weather at TLH on 28 October 2003

Concluding Remarks