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El Niño / La Niña
Forecast

    The latest assessment of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific by the Climate Prediction Center indicates that neutral to weak La Niña conditions are expected to continue developing through Spring and the upcoming Summer. This forecast is based on predictions from the latest NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS), first image below, as well as from more than two-thirds of the other statistical and coupled model predictions, second image below.

    In order to be considered an El Niño/La Niña episode the sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region have to at least meet the criteria listed below, and then remain at or above/below these levels for at least five consecutive months to be considered an El Niño/La Niña event.

    • El Niño = SST anomaly greater than or equal to +0.5 degrees C
    • Neutral = SST anomaly between -0.5 and +0.5 degrees C
    • La Niña = SST anomaly lesser than or equal to -0.5 degrees C

    A more defined definition of El Niño, although not totally etched in stone is listed below.

    • Strong El Niño = SST anomaly greater than or equal to +2.0 degrees C
    • Moderate El Niño = SST anomaly between +1.0 and +1.9 degrees C
    • Weak El Niño = SST anomaly between +0.5 and +0.9 degrees C

    Therefore, using this criteria, it can be seen in the images below that La Niña conditions are expected to continue into the upcoming Winter.


NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) SST Anomaly Predictions for the Niño 3.4 Region

Model Forecasts of SST Anomalies in the Niño 3.4 Region from the International Research Institute