Hurricane Ivan Preliminary Storm Survey
Disclaimer: Hurricane Ivan track and intensity information
from our surveys are preliminary. Final official intensity and
track will be determined by the National Hurricane Center.
By Barry Goldsmith
NWS Senior Meteorologist
Tampa, Florida
Hurricane Ivan defines the classic severe hurricane. In fact, it may go down in the record books for the most days (9) and consecutive days (8) holding Extremely Dangerous (Category 4) or Severe (Category 5) hurricane status. Ivan will not only be remembered for ravaging portions of the Caribbean and the Gulf coast of southeastern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle, but for flooding rains in the southern Appalachians, over 100 tornadoes in total, and a mid Atlantic tornado outbreak on September 17th that produced over 30 tornadoes in less than 6 hours.
Hurricane Ivan Path

The system, which became first appeared as a vigorous wave moving off West Africa near 10°N latitude on August 31st and was named a tropical storm on September 3rd, intensified - in one day (September 5th) - to a major (Category 3) hurricane. Intensity fluctuations occurred over the next two days, before the storm strengthened in the southeast Caribbean to a Category 4 over, or just west, of Grenada on the 7th. From the 7th until the 15th, Ivan remained a Category 4 or Category 5 hurricane while traversing the southern, central, and northwestern Caribbean sea, the Yucatan Channel, and eventually the southern Gulf of Mexico. Ivan produced substantial damage to Grenada, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands before entering the Gulf, where it tracked toward the central Gulf Coast. Ivan weakened to a strong Category 3 as it moved ashore in Gulf Shores, Alabama, early on September 16th.

Ivan weakened quickly as it moved through eastern Alabama, becoming a depression less than 24 hours after

making landfall. The depression became a remnant low pressure area as it continued steadily through eastern Tennessee, western North Carolina, and southern Virginia before exiting as a weak trough along Virginia's Tidewater region on the 18th. Ivan was done…or was he?

Strangely enough, the vortex that was Ivan was driven south east of the Carolina and Georgia Coastline, turning southwest toward Florida's Atlantic coast, and finally turning west near the Space Coast. This vortex, which enhanced clouds and precipitation across central Florida, especially from Polk County east early on the 21st, eventually redeveloped a core of thunderstorms over the central Gulf, late on the 22nd south of the Louisiana Coast. Ivan then began recurving to the northwest, making a second landfall near Cameron, Louisiana, just east of the Texas line, late on the 23rd.

Ivan's Effects on West Central Florida

In terms of sensible weather, Ivan was tame. South winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph or so, along with an isolated shower, were noted, with the storm's first pass on the 15th. Light rains during the overnight and morning hours of the 22nd were associated with the storm's second pass.

The same was not true for impacts to the Suncoast beaches and shoaly coastline. Ivan, a large storm when it entered the central Gulf, had ample time and fetch to build seas to impressive heights, including 20.1 feet at the NOAA buoy 100 nautical miles west of Hernando County, 39.5 feet at the buoy 115 nautical miles east southeast of Pensacola, and an amazing 52 feet at the buoy 64 nautical miles south of Dauphin Island, Alabama. This action the eastern Gulf was akin to a bowl of overflowing water, and the result was minor to moderate coastal flooding across Florida's Big Bend, including the Levy County coastline (Cedar Key), and moderate to locally major beach erosion, along with overwash and some minor flooding along the Suncoast's barrier beaches from Pasco through Sarasota and Charlotte Counties. Beach replenishment projects were continuing as of this writing.

For serious surfers on the Suncoast, Ivan was the climax of the most active summer in a long time. Despite some chop on the 15th, average waves of 5 to 7 feet (head high or more) were common, and some even reached 10 feet along southwest facing beaches. The swell continued, with less chop, through the 16th, maintaining the excellent surf conditions.

Fair weather and more normal coastal effects returned by the 17th. However, this wouldn't last as Jeanne was lurking northeast of the Bahamas, soon to make a move toward Florida.