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| Figure 1. Daily weather maps, 7 AM EST, February 25th. Surface analysis; |
Figure 2. Daily weather maps, 7 AM EST, February 25th. 500 mb analysis. |
Figure 3. Infrared Satellite image at 715 AM EST, zoomed in on the eastern Gulf and Florida. The thin convective bands covered northern Pasco and southern Hernando Counties, and would produce over 5 inches in a few hours in some areas. |
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Soaking Rains
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A series of upper level disturbances, riding along an strong subtropical jet stream, aided in producing a combination of heavy rainfall and severe weather from late on February 23rd to the afternoon of February 25th. Much of the rain was beneficial, falling on relatively dry ground. However, some areas received more than others.
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The combination of an upper level jet core, subtropical moisture, and lift provided by a stationary front separating the warm, unstable air across the Florida peninsula with much cooler air in north Florida, set the stage for bands of moderate to heavy rains which gradually drifted southward across the Suncoast between the morning of the 24th and the late afternoon of the 25th.
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The first, and most potent, band (Figure 3, above) dumped between 3 and 6 inches of rain in southern Hernando and extreme northern Pasco Counties from daybreak to before noon. Minor flooding was reported in Spring Hill. This rain area then accelerated into the Tampa Bay and Lakeland areas by early afternoon, producing scattered severe weather. By evening of the 24th, a large area of moderate rain redeveloped between the Nature Coast and Sarasota/Bradenton, which dropped 1 to 2 inches (locally 3 inches) of rain overnight. This batch of rain was induced by a stronger upper level system, which developed an area of low pressure in the eastern Gulf (Figure 1 and 2, above).
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Soon after daybreak on the 25th, the heaviest rains shifted into Southwest and South Central Florida, dropping generally 1 to 3 inches from Fort Myers to Port Charlotte eastward to southern Highlands County. Click here for a rainfall summary.
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As the upper level system moved across the Southeast U.S., the surface low redeveloped along the northeast Florida coast and moved slowly northward. Much colder air was eventually dragged down the peninsula, with temperatures in the 40s and 50s during the daylight hours on the 27th.
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Wind Damage
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Severe weather occurred twice: During the late evening of the 23rd in Citrus County, and in the afternoon of the 24th. The strongest storm formed along the stationary front in the eastern Gulf west of Yankeetown and Inglis (Levy County) shortly before 11 PM, then raced east at 40 mph and intensified as it crossed through the nearshore waters and into southern Levy County and northern Citrus County between 1115 PM and midnight. The storm was fed by increasing southerly winds, which also provided low level wind shear.
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Soon after crossing the coast, wind gusts of 70 mph caused at least $250 thousand in damage in the Derosa area near Lake Rousseau, in extreme northern Citrus County (Figure 6, below). Surveys conducted by Citrus County Emergency Management indicated straight-line wind damage; however, a tornado may have been embedded within, as suggested by doppler radar data (Figure 5, below). Click here for more photos.
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Differential heating between torrential morning rain bands in Hernando and Pasco Counties and warm and humid air farther south set the stage for more thunderstorms Inflow of gusty southerly winds aided the updrafts as a portion of the line broke off and accelerated southeast, moving from southern Pasco County through Tampa and the eastern suburbs and continuing into northern Polk County. Wind damage, and even a small tornado, was reported from Tampa to Auburndale. Click here for details.
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