Unlike a typical year, when October signifies the onset of cooler and more comfortable weather, October 2002 featured late summer humidity with above normal temperatures. Like a toasted bagel with cream cheese in the middle, October began with early September-like heat, was followed with a brief mid-month cool down, and concluded with more late summer heat and humidity. Rainfall patterns varied, as well. Several days featured sea breeze and boundary collisions more like mid summer than early autumn.

For the month, temperatures were the 5th warmest on record at Tampa (Table 1) and 6th warmest at Fort Myers (Table 2). For many, it seemed like summer just wouldn't end. In a sense, they were correct. Analysis of the combined September and October average temperature showed that, for 2002, the value was the highest on record (Table 3).

A strong upper level high pressure ridge remained parked across the southeastern United States for much of the first half of the month. This ridge maintained a hot and humid air mass across the peninsula. Across the suncoast, temperatures averaged 3 to 5 degrees above normal, with daytime highs near 90 and nighttime lows between 70 and 75.

Rainfall was scarce for the first ten days, as deep layer drying on the heels of Hurricane Lili, which passed well south and west of the region, took hold by the 3rd and was slow to be replaced by deep tropical moisture. Sea breeze collisions produced locally heavy rains from east of Tampa Bay through Manatee County on the 7th, and over interior sections of the Suncoast from Tampa through Levy County on the 12th. By the end of the period, rains became more widespread as a series of fronts approached.

October 15 - 20: Brief Relief
A break in the weather occurred by mid month, as a cold front swept through the state. The front, preceded by clouds and widespread rain from the 13th through 15th, brought significantly cooler and drier. Average temperatures between the 15th and 20th averaged 2 to 4 degrees below normal. This pleasant change would be short lived, however, as the continental air quickly modified as high pressure (Figure 1) rebuilt east and south of the state, returning tropical moisture, and eventually more late summer heat.

October 21 - 31: Back to Summer...until Halloween
Heat and Humidity returned by the 4th week. Dry weather prevailed early, but a weak upper level disturbance, combined with sea breeze collisions, dumped torrential rains of more than 5 inches over portions of interior west central Florida on the 23rd. Figure 2 shows the monthly total. By the end of the 4th week, summer heat peaked, with high temperatures once again near 90 and lows between 70 and 75.

After the local deluge on the 23rd, precipitation was isolated, until the 30th, when a cold front approached the Nature Coast. By Halloween, the front had reached Sarasota County. Temperatures from Tampa Bay north held in the 70s for the first time since mid month. Figures 3 and 4 show the monthly temperature trends for Tampa and Fort Myers, respectively.