Extra-Tropical Storm Surge Model Guidance 


Northeast Gulf of Mexico

Point Forecast: tide + surge

Coastal Flood Impact



                                  Northeast Gulf of Mexico

 Impact Legend: (Click on impact graphs above to view the coastal flood threat forecast.)

None : No coastal flooding or erosion expected.

Low: Minor coastal flooding expected. Water levels will likely reach or overwash docks and sea walls at the coast. Low lying coastal access roads may experience occasional water washing over the road with high wave action. However, no buildings or coastal roads are expected to be cut off from rising water. 

Moderate: Moderate coastal flooding expected. Water levels will likely reach the top of dunes and wash onto adjacent coastal roadways. Some low lying coastal roads will be inundated and suffer minor structural damage. Homes not elevated above the surface may become cut off and surrounded by seawater. 

High: Major coastal flooding expected. Water levels will inundate vulnerable coastal roadways. Some of these roads will be susceptible to washouts or collapse. Non elevated causeways may experience some overwash. Structures not elevated will be cut off and experience flooding. Structures on the immediate coastline with weakened or vulnerable foundations will be subject to collapse at periods of high wave action.

Extreme: Significant and life threatening flooding expected. Coastal roadways will become impassable due to flood waters. Low lying areas of these roadways will washout or collapse. Causeways may become closed due to rising flood waters. Structures along the immediate coast will be subject to collapse from repeated high wave action. Non-elevated structures will suffer significant coastal flooding and could be destroyed.


The graphics on this site will be updated daily around 10 AM EST based on the 06z model cycle. 

**NOTE: For more detailed information regarding the ET-Surge model guidance, please refer to the official site at:  



DISCLAIMER: The Extra-Tropical Storm Surge information shown here should not be used for tropical cyclone events. For official storm surge information associated with tropical cyclones, please consult advisories and warnings issued by the National Hurricane Center. The prognostics depicted on these pages may not be  available at all times. The accuracy or reliability of the data is not guaranteed nor warranted in any way. The data should not be used as the sole resource for decision making. This marine forecast guidance is best interpreted by a professional meteorologist who is familiar with the particular modeling system, including any model biases.

For any questions about local surge graphics at WFO Tallahassee
Alex Gibbs - NWS WFO TAE

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