PUBLIC INFORMATION MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
243 PM EDT MON AUG 16 2004
...ARE YOU REALLY PREPARED?...
NOW THAT WE ARE IN THE HEART OF HURRICANE SEASON, THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE WANTS TO MAKE SURE YOU ARE PREPARED FOR A HURRICANE.
RECENT EVENTS OFFER A GOOD OPPORTUNITY TO ANALYZE YOUR STATE OF
READINESS. HERE ARE A FEW QUESTIONS TO CONSIDER:
DID YOU KNOW THAT THE AVERAGE 24-HOUR TRACK FORECAST ERROR FOR A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS ABOUT 100 MILES? IN OTHER WORDS, IF A HURRICANE
IS FORECAST TO HIT APALACHICOLA 24 HOURS FROM NOW, THE ACTUAL
POSITION COULD END UP BEING ANYWHERE FROM DESTIN TO STEINHATCHEE.
THE AVERAGE TRACK ERROR FOR A 3-DAY FORECAST IS 230 MILES! AS YOU
CAN SEE, EVEN WITH ALL OF THE TECHNOLOGY AND IMPROVED UNDERSTANDING
OF THE ATMOSPHERE WE STILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN OUR
TRACK FORECASTS. THAT IS WHY HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR MUCH
LARGER SECTIONS OF COASTLINE THAN THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST MIGHT
SUGGEST. FOR EXAMPLE, SUPPOSE A HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO HIT
APALACHICOLA IN 24 HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE HURRICANE WARNING
WOULD EXTEND FROM DESTIN TO STEINHATCHEE BECAUSE THOSE POINTS ARE
WITHIN OUR AVERAGE ERROR RANGE. WE HAVE TO GIVE A SPECIFIC FORECAST
TRACK, BUT WE RECOGNIZE THAT THERE IS AN ENVELOPE OF OTHER POSSIBLE
TRACKS SURROUNDING OUR FORECAST TRACK, AND WE MUST WARN FOR AREAS
WITHIN THIS ENVELOPE. THAT IS WHY IT IS IMPORTANT TO MAKE YOUR
HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS DECISIONS BASED ON THE WARNINGS, AND NOT THE
ACTUAL FORECAST TRACK.
SUPPOSE A HURRICANE WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA BUT THE STORM IS
EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH 110 MPH, WHICH IS JUST A CATEGORY-2
HURRICANE. WOULD YOU EVACUATE? THERE ARE A FEW THINGS TO CONSIDER.
FIRST OF ALL, THE AVERAGE WIND SPEED ERROR FOR A 24-HOUR FORECAST IS
10 MPH. SO IT'S POSSIBLE THAT THE STORM COULD REACH 120 MPH BY
LANDFALL, WHICH WOULD BE A MAJOR HURRICANE. BUT THIS IS THE AVERAGE
FORECAST ERROR. THERE WILL BE TIMES WHEN THE WIND FORECAST WILL BE
OFF BY EVEN MORE THAN 10 MPH...ESPECIALLY FOR SOME STORMS THAT
UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASES. THIS CAN BE A FRIGHTENING
SCENARIO WHEN YOU ARE PREPARED FOR A CATEGORY-2 STORM AND END UP
WITH A CATEGORY-4. IT MAY NOT BE POSSIBLE TO EVACUATE BY THE TIME
YOU REALIZE THE STORM HAS INTENSIFIED. BE SURE YOU ARE IN A
WELL-CONSTRUCTED BUILDING AWAY FROM WATER BEFORE MAKING A DECISION
TO NOT EVACUATE. MOBILE HOMES DO NOT OFFER ADEQUATE SHELTER AND
SHOULD BE EVACUATED WHEN A HURRICANE THREATENS. IF YOU ARE UNDECIDED
ABOUT WHETHER YOU SHOULD EVACUATE, ASK YOURSELF WHAT YOU WOULD DO IF
THE HURRICANE APPROACHING YOUR AREA STRENGTHENED A CATEGORY MORE
THAN FORECAST.
DO YOU HAVE A DISASTER PREPAREDNESS KIT? IF NOT, NOW IS THE TIME TO
GET ONE. THIS SHOULD INCLUDE AMPLE FIRST AID SUPPLIES, BATTERIES,
FLASHLIGHTS, SEVERAL DAYS WORTH OF WATER AND NON-PERISHABLE FOOD, A
CAN OPENER, AND PLENTY OF CASH. YOU CAN AVOID THE LAST MINUTE
SHOPPING RUSH AND THE RISK OF NOT BEING ABLE TO GET THESE SUPPLIES
IF A HURRICANE THREATENS BY GETTING THESE SUPPLIES NOW. A DISASTER
PREPAREDNESS KIT IS ALSO GOOD TO HAVE ON HAND IF OTHER DISASTERS
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN THIS ERA OF TERROR THREATS. ONCE YOU HAVE A
DISASTER KIT AND A PLAN YOU WILL HAVE THE PEACE OF MIND OF KNOWING
YOU ARE PREPARED FOR UNEXPECTED EMERGENCIES.
$$
FOURNIER
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