|Severe Weather Expected this Weekend
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
ZONES SATURDAY. BY LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THESE STORMS WILL BE
SITUATED IN A HIGHLY SHEARED AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER. MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS
LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA WILL
BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THAT STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. DURING
SATURDAY NIGHT A MORE ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
PROPAGATING EASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN
FLORIDA BIG BEND...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WEST DURING THIS TIME...BUT
ALSO EXPAND EASTWARD WITH TIME. ONCE AGAIN...DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED ALL BUT OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES IN A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONGOING
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TO START THE DAY...AND THEN TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE
THE BEST DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS ON SUNDAY WILL BE
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
OUTLOOKED OUR CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY.
Figure 1. A map depicting the convective outlook issued by the Storm Prediction Center for the period
from 8 AM EDT Sat. to 8 AM EDT Sun showing a slight risk for severe storms for most of the forecast area.
Figure 2. Weather map showing the position of the surface frontal system and upper level energy as of
8 PM EDT Saturday, April 24, 2010.
Figure 3. Locally derived severe weather probability for Saturday morning into early afternoon showing the threat
entering Southeast Alabama and eastern portions of the Florida Panhandle.
Figure 4. Locally derived severe weather probability for Saturday afternoon and early evening showing the threat
increasing over Southeast Alabama and eastern portions of the Florida Panhandle and moving into Southwest Georgia.
Figure 5. Locally derived severe weather probability for Saturday evening into Saturday night showing the threat
continuing to increase over Southeast Alabama and eastern portions of the Florida Panhandle and Southwest Georgia and
beginning over western portions of the Florida Big Bend.
Figure 6. Locally derived severe weather probability for late Saturday night into Sunday morning showing the threat
continuing to extend to the east while remaining high across the western counties.
Figure 7. Locally derived severe weather probability for Sunday morning into early afternoon showing the threat
maximizing over much of the forecast area while diminishing across the western counties.
Figure 8. Locally derived severe weather probability for Sunday afternoon showing the threat shifting to South
Central Georgia and much of the Florida Big Bend.