277 WTNT31 KNHC 030240 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 1100 PM AST WED OCT 02 2013 ...JERRY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.7N 42.0W ABOUT 1030 MI...1660 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.0 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
345 WTNT21 KNHC 030239 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 0300 UTC THU OCT 03 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 42.0W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 42.0W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 42.4W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 30.6N 40.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 31.9N 38.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 32.8N 35.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 33.4N 33.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 36.0N 29.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 38.5N 25.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.7N 42.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
384 WTNT41 KNHC 030242 TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 1100 PM AST WED OCT 02 2013 DEEP CONVECTION HAS...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY...CEASED WITHIN JERRY THIS EVENING. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE CORRESPONDINGLY DROPPED...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ANALYZED AT 30 KT. THE INITIAL POSITION CAN BE LOCATED SOMEWHAT RELIABLY AS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER CAN BE SEEN IN THE SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY NOW THAT THE DEEP-LAYER CLOUDINESS HAS SUBSIDED. THE POSITION INDICATES A CURRENT MOTION OF 50 DEGREES AT 6 KT. JERRY IS LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SHOULD ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT GETS PICKED UP BY THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE TRACK MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND ARE CENTERED JUST SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS CYCLE...AS IS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. DEEP CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO RESUME TONIGHT DURING THE LATE NIGHT-EARLY MORNING DIURNAL MAXIMUM. HOWEVER...AS THE CYCLONE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD...THIS WILL BRING IT OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS...THROUGH A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE...AND INTO STRONGER TROPOSPHERIC VERTICAL SHEAR. THUS THE PROSPECTS FOR SIGNIFICANT REINTENSIFICATION APPEAR TO BE SLIM. AFTER ABOUT TWO DAYS...JERRY WILL BE TRAVERSING 24C WATERS AND IT SHOULD LOSE DEEP CONVECTION PERMANENTLY AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW. JERRY IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY DAY FIVE...THOUGH SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS COULD OCCUR A DAY OR TWO SOONER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE HWRF AND GFDL HURRICANE MODELS AND THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND IT IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 29.7N 42.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 30.6N 40.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 31.9N 38.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 32.8N 35.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 33.4N 33.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 36.0N 29.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/0000Z 38.5N 25.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
278
FONT11 KNHC 030240
PWSAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
0300 UTC THU OCT 03 2013
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 1 8 11 14 15 16 NA
TROP DEPRESSION 61 46 41 38 36 35 NA
TROPICAL STORM 38 45 45 44 46 45 NA
HURRICANE X 1 2 4 4 4 NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 X 1 2 3 4 4 NA
HUR CAT 2 X X X X X X NA
HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 30KT 30KT 30KT 30KT 30KT 30KT NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6)
PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) X(20)
PONTA DELGADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
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 Three Day Forecast |
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