707 WTNT32 KNHC 191757 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 100 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013 ...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 95.1W ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO BARRA DE NAUTLA MEXICO FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.1 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...16 KM/H. A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL REACH THE COAST IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ THURSDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST ON THURSDAY. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE DEPRESSION. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
643 WTNT22 KNHC 191433 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 1500 UTC WED JUN 19 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO BARRA DE NAUTLA MEXICO TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 94.5W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 94.5W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 93.9W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.5N 95.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.5N 96.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.5N 97.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.5N 98.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 94.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
594 WTNT42 KNHC 191433 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 1000 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013 DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING AND THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM...IF IT IS NOT ONE NOW. IN FACT...A MEXICAN NAVY METEOROLOGICAL STATION MEASURED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN GUSTS NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION EARLIER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GIVE US A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE CURRENT SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO ABATE AS A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE FORMS OVER THE DEPRESSION. THERE IS ROOM FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO ON THURSDAY. THE DEPRESSION HAS TURNED TO THE WEST AND IS NOW MOVING 280 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FLOW PATTERN WOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNTIL LANDFALL. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND WHETHER THE CYCLONE STRENGTHENS... THE MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO PRIMARILY THE STATE OF VERACRUZ DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 19.6N 94.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 19.5N 95.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 19.5N 96.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 19.5N 97.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 21/1200Z 19.5N 98.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA
319
FONT12 KNHC 191433
PWSAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
1500 UTC WED JUN 19 2013
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 1 7 19 36 NA NA NA
TROP DEPRESSION 32 35 43 39 NA NA NA
TROPICAL STORM 66 55 36 22 NA NA NA
HURRICANE 1 3 2 3 NA NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 1 3 2 3 NA NA NA
HUR CAT 2 X X X X NA NA NA
HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35KT 40KT 25KT 20KT NA NA NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
TAMPICO MX 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
TUXPAN MX 34 X 6( 6) 4(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
VERACRUZ MX 34 7 20(27) 5(32) 2(34) X(34) X(34) X(34)
VERACRUZ MX 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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