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(March 24, 2011) - As predicted in the fall of 2010, in seasonal outlooks from the NOAA National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center (CPC), La Niña-spawned drought conditions have developed and are expected to persist and intensify across Texas. While the large number of wildfires that developed across the southern Plains during the past month has since diminished, conditions remain conducive to critical wildfire danger in the near future.
NOAA's efforts to assist on-the-ground first responders began long before the first fires occurred. The seasonal climate forecasts from CPC, starting with the Oct-Dec. 2010 Precipitation Outlook and the Dec. 2010 - Jan. 2011 U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook, coupled with weekly on-the-ground assessments from the U.S. Drought Monitor, provided a basis for the National Weather Service to prepare for delivery of decision support services as the fire season has unfolded.
"Getting this seasonal climate information into the hands of key decision-makers is part of the end-to-end suite of climate services that NOAA provides," said Dr. David Brown, regional director for NOAA Southern Region Climate Services. "These products are important tools, and we translate those tools into useful information for our stakeholders through the Southern Region forecast offices and regional headquarters."
With steadily deteriorating conditions, the long term outlooks soon evolved into short term National Weather Service decision support services. Forecast offices throughout the region responded with timely advisories, accurate forecasts and up-to-the-minute Red Flag Warnings; as well as deploying Incident Meteorologists to provide critical on-site fire weather support to incident commanders.
"When minutes and seconds matter; and there is an urgent need for reliable temperature, humidity, wind speed and wind direction forecasts, our goal is to provide the best possible decision support services for our fire management partners," said National Weather Service Southern Region Climate Program Manager Victor Murphy.
The long-term seasonal outlooks, monthly and weekly updates and assessments from the climate experts at CPC; the daily forecasts and warnings provided by local forecast offices; technical workshops; and a host of decision support services all combine to help prepare wildfire managers, state and local officials, the media and the public to respond appropriately to the hazards of the fire weather season.
Following a climate/weather prediction workshop held in Texas last December, Texas Forest Service Risk Assessment Coordinator Tom Spencer noted, "The long-range climate forecasting capabilities of the National Weather Service are critical to our strategic planning, and will pay huge dividends to our agency in helping us prepare for this winter fire season, as well as future fire seasons."
Spencer's comments proved to be right on point this season. Between January 1 and March 22, firefighters in the southern region dealt with more than 8,900 wildfires which burned approximately 340,000 acres.
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