WFO Miami WCM Robert Molleda addresses media during South Florida Dry Season Outlook news conference (Photo: Dennis Feltgen, NHC)
(Oct. 30, 2008) - The National Weather Service forecast office in Miami is calling for a drier than normal Dry Season for South Florida. Miami Warning Coordination Meteorologist Robert Molleda made the announcement during the office's annual Dry Season Outlook news conference.
While several factors come into play when anticipating long range precipitation and temperature trends, the primary influence is the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effect. ENSO is a combination of sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and atmospheric conditions that effect weather systems around the world. Currently, ENSO is in neither the warm water El Niño phase nor the cold water La Niña phase. This neutral phase is expected to continue or possibly develop into a weak La Niña early next year.
"Analyses of previous neutral to weak La Niña events suggest the likelihood of a drier winter and spring is greater than the warm water El Niño years," said Molleda.
However, he also noted the potential impact of reductions in South Florida water levels may be partially offset by the above normal rainfall in most areas during the latest rainy season. Typically, South Florida's rainy season begins in late April or early May, while the dry season begins in late October or early November.
The primary concerns during a drier than normal season include a heightened wildfire danger in the spring and rip current threats throughout the season. It could also mean more cold snaps and freezes which could have severe impacts on Florida's multi-billion dollar agriculture industry.
