Flood Categories Minor - Some public inconvenience, but minimal or no property damage likely. Moderate - Closure of secondary roads. Transfer to higher elevation may be necessary to save property. Some evacuations may be required. Major - Extensive inundation and property damage. Usually characterized by the evacuation of people and livestock and the closure of primary and secondary roads Record - The highest observed River stage or discharge at a given site during the period of record keeping.

Categorical Flood Forecast Verification System - Individual River Forecast Center Verification Statistics 3rd Quarter (Apr 2013 - Jun 2013) FY2013 ABRFC LMRFC SERFC WGRFC Arkansas-Red Basin River Forecast Center Statistical Snapshot A quick look at hits, misses, false alarms, no forecast misses, and average lead time. False Alarm Ratio & Probability of Detection by Category FAR and POD are calculated here for each flood category. The categories are: action stage, minor flood, moderate flood, major flood, and record flood. FAR = (False Alarms / (False Alarms + Hits) ) {0.00 is best} POD = (Hits / (Hits + Misses + No Forecast Misses) ) {1.00 is best} All Periods Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 All Periods False Alarm Ratio & Probability of Detection for Flood or No Flood FAR and POD are calculated here for hits and misses based on flood stage only. FAR = (False Alarms / (False Alarms + Hits) ) {0.00 is best} POD = (Hits / (Hits + Misses + No Forecast Misses) ) {1.00 is best} Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center Statistical Snapshot A quick look at hits, misses, false alarms, no forecast misses, and average lead time. False Alarm Ratio & Probability of Detection by Category FAR and POD are calculated here for each flood category. The categories are: action stage, minor flood, moderate flood, major flood, and record flood. FAR = (False Alarms / (False Alarms + Hits) ) {0.00 is best} POD = (Hits / (Hits + Misses + No Forecast Misses) ) {1.00 is best} All Periods Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 All Periods False Alarm Ratio & Probability of Detection for Flood or No Flood FAR and POD are calculated here for hits and misses based on flood stage only. FAR = (False Alarms / (False Alarms + Hits) ) {0.00 is best} POD = (Hits / (Hits + Misses + No Forecast Misses) ) {1.00 is best} Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Southeast River Forecast Center Statistical Snapshot A quick look at hits, misses, false alarms, no forecast misses, and average lead time. False Alarm Ratio & Probability of Detection by Category FAR and POD are calculated here for each flood category. The categories are: action stage, minor flood, moderate flood, major flood, and record flood. FAR = (False Alarms / (False Alarms + Hits) ) {0.00 is best} POD = (Hits / (Hits + Misses + No Forecast Misses) ) {1.00 is best} All Periods Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 All Periods False Alarm Ratio & Probability of Detection for Flood or No Flood FAR and POD are calculated here for hits and misses based on flood stage only. FAR = (False Alarms / (False Alarms + Hits) ) {0.00 is best} POD = (Hits / (Hits + Misses + No Forecast Misses) ) {1.00 is best} Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 West Gulf River Forecast Center Statistical Snapshot A quick look at hits, misses, false alarms, no forecast misses, and average lead time. False Alarm Ratio & Probability of Detection by Category FAR and POD are calculated here for each flood category. The categories are: action stage, minor flood, moderate flood, major flood, and record flood. FAR = (False Alarms / (False Alarms + Hits) ) {0.00 is best} POD = (Hits / (Hits + Misses + No Forecast Misses) ) {1.00 is best} All Periods Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 All Periods False Alarm Ratio & Probability of Detection for Flood or No Flood FAR and POD are calculated here for hits and misses based on flood stage only. FAR = (False Alarms / (False Alarms + Hits) ) {0.00 is best} POD = (Hits / (Hits + Misses + No Forecast Misses) ) {1.00 is best} Day 1 Day 2 Day 3