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Flood Categories
Minor - Some public inconvenience, but minimal or no property damage likely.
Moderate - Closure of secondary roads. Transfer to higher elevation may be necessary to save property. Some evacuations may be required.
Major - Extensive inundation and property damage. Usually characterized by the evacuation of people and livestock and the closure of primary and secondary roads
Record - The highest observed River stage or discharge at a given site during the period of record keeping.
Categorical Flood Forecast Verification System - Individual River Forecast Center Verification Statistics
1st Quarter (Oct 2011 - Dec2011) FY2011
ABRFC LMRFC SERFC WGRFC

Arkansas-Red Basin River Forecast Center
Summary Statistical Snapshot
A quick look at hits, misses, false alarms, no forecast misses, and average lead time.
False Alarm Ratio & Probability of Detection by Category
FAR and POD are calculated here for each flood category. The categories are: action stage, minor flood, moderate flood, major flood, and record flood.
FAR = (False Alarms / (False Alarms + Hits) ) {0.00 is best}
POD = (Hits / (Hits + Misses + No Forecast Misses) ) {1.00 is best}
All Periods
FAR and POD
Day 1
FAR and POD Day 1
Day 2
FAR and POD Day 2
Day 3
FAR and POD Day 3
Day 4
FAR and POD Day 4
Day 5
FAR and POD Day 5
All Periods
FAR and POD
False Alarm Ratio & Probability of Detection for Flood or No Flood
FAR and POD are calculated here for hits and misses based on flood stage only.
FAR = (False Alarms / (False Alarms + Hits) ) {0.00 is best}
POD = (Hits / (Hits + Misses + No Forecast Misses) ) {1.00 is best}
Day 1
FAR and POD Day 1
Day 2
FAR and POD Day 2
Day 3
FAR and POD Day 3
Day 4
FAR and POD Day 4
Day 5
FAR and POD Day 5

Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center
Summary Statistical Snapshot
A quick look at hits, misses, false alarms, no forecast misses, and average lead time.
False Alarm Ratio & Probability of Detection by Category
FAR and POD are calculated here for each flood category. The categories are: action stage, minor flood, moderate flood, major flood, and record flood.
FAR = (False Alarms / (False Alarms + Hits) ) {0.00 is best}
POD = (Hits / (Hits + Misses + No Forecast Misses) ) {1.00 is best}
All Periods
FAR and POD
Day 1
FAR and POD Day 1
Day 2
FAR and POD Day 2
Day 3
FAR and POD Day 3
Day 4
FAR and POD Day 4
Day 5
FAR and POD Day 5
All Periods
FAR and POD
False Alarm Ratio & Probability of Detection for Flood or No Flood
FAR and POD are calculated here for hits and misses based on flood stage only.
FAR = (False Alarms / (False Alarms + Hits) ) {0.00 is best}
POD = (Hits / (Hits + Misses + No Forecast Misses) ) {1.00 is best}
Day 1
FAR and POD Day 1
Day 2
FAR and POD Day 2
Day 3
FAR and POD Day 3
Day 4
FAR and POD Day 4
Day 5
FAR and POD Day 5

Southeast River Forecast Center
Summary Statistical Snapshot
A quick look at hits, misses, false alarms, no forecast misses, and average lead time.
False Alarm Ratio & Probability of Detection by Category
FAR and POD are calculated here for each flood category. The categories are: action stage, minor flood, moderate flood, major flood, and record flood.
FAR = (False Alarms / (False Alarms + Hits) ) {0.00 is best}
POD = (Hits / (Hits + Misses + No Forecast Misses) ) {1.00 is best}
All Periods
FAR and POD
Day 1
FAR and POD Day 1
Day 2
FAR and POD Day 2
Day 3
FAR and POD Day 3
All Periods
FAR and POD
False Alarm Ratio & Probability of Detection for Flood or No Flood
FAR and POD are calculated here for hits and misses based on flood stage only.
FAR = (False Alarms / (False Alarms + Hits) ) {0.00 is best}
POD = (Hits / (Hits + Misses + No Forecast Misses) ) {1.00 is best}
Day 1
FAR and POD Day 1
Day 2
FAR and POD Day 2
Day 3
FAR and POD Day 3

West Gulf River Forecast Center
Summary Statistical Snapshot
A quick look at hits, misses, false alarms, no forecast misses, and average lead time.
False Alarm Ratio & Probability of Detection by Category
FAR and POD are calculated here for each flood category. The categories are: action stage, minor flood, moderate flood, major flood, and record flood.
FAR = (False Alarms / (False Alarms + Hits) ) {0.00 is best}
POD = (Hits / (Hits + Misses + No Forecast Misses) ) {1.00 is best}
All Periods
FAR and POD
Day 1
FAR and POD Day 1
Day 2
FAR and POD Day 2
Day 3
FAR and POD Day 3
All Periods
FAR and POD
False Alarm Ratio & Probability of Detection for Flood or No Flood
FAR and POD are calculated here for hits and misses based on flood stage only.
FAR = (False Alarms / (False Alarms + Hits) ) {0.00 is best}
POD = (Hits / (Hits + Misses + No Forecast Misses) ) {1.00 is best}
Day 1
FAR and POD Day 1
Day 2
FAR and POD Day 2
Day 3
FAR and POD Day 3