000
FXUS64 KHGX 251725
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1125 AM CST WED NOV 25 2009

.AVIATION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PLACEMENT ACROSS CWFA RESULTING IN A
NNE WIND FLOW MAINLY NEAR 10 KTS (LIGHTER FARTHER INLAND AND SLIGHTLY
STRONGER COAST). GRADIENT WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING BUT
REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN GRADIENT BY THURSDAY
MORNING WITH WINDS PICKING UP TO ABOUT 10-15 KTS FROM NNW. SKIES
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SOME CIRRUS THURSDAY. 37


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 AM CST WED NOV 25 2009/

DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES AND COOL THIS MORNING. WILL BE WARMING UP TO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S. MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE DEWPOINTS FOR TODAY AND
00-06Z MODELS ALL POINTING TO INCREASING CI OVER THE AREA ON
TURKEY DAY...SO HAVE SHOWN AN INCREASING SKY COVER TREND.

45

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CST WED NOV 25 2009/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NUDGING IN FROM WESTERN TEXAS...TOTALLY
CLEARING INTERIOR SKIES OUT AND WEAKENING LOW LEVEL WINDS. DRY AIR
MASS OVER REGION WITH MAJORITY OF TDS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S...MID
40S AT COAST. WITH WINDS DYING OUT...EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING
WILL PEG INTERIOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S. LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS...SUNNY SKIES WITH MID-UPPER 60S THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

NEXT WEATHER MAKER COMES IN THE FORM OF A DEEPLY NEGATIVE-TILTED
CENTRAL-SOUTHERN PLAINS MID-UPPER TROF...FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A
CLOSED-OFF LOW AS IT PASSES ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WAA WILL KICK IN BEGINNING
EARLY SATURDAY. MOISTURE LEVELS LIFTING FROM THE MEAGER NEAR 0.25"
PWATS EARLY FRIDAY TO OVER AN INCH SATURDAY (W-SW CWA)...ALONG
WITH STEERING MID-LEVEL SW`ERLIES STRIPPING 80-90 PERCENT RH UP
THE 295K THETA E SFC...SIGNALS INCREASING CHANCE FOR -SHRA FROM
SATURDAY PM INTO SUNDAY. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RA/ISO THUNDER SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH FROPA TIMED TO REACH THE
COAST AROUND MONDAY`S SUNRISE. POST-FROPA...GFS/ECMWF IN AGREEMENT
THAT A VERY COLD CANADIAN CP AIR MASS WILL DESCEND OVER US EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE LAST DAY OF THE MONTH WILL BE MOSTLY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY AND BECMG SIG COOLER. GFS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH
BRINGING THE 85H -6C ISOTHERM INTO THE NW GULF TUES...BUT THE
EURO`S SINGLE DIGIT SOLUTION SEEMS MORE REALISTIC. EITHER
WAY...THE TREND IS FOR A COLD AND DRY START TO DECEMBER. 31

MARINE...
WILL MAINTAIN SCA`S NEARSHORE TILL 6 AM AND MOST OF THE DAY FURTHER
OFFSHORE. SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH A BIT THRU THE AFTN. GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AGAIN ON THURS AND CAUTION FLAGS MIGHT BE NEEDED. OFFSHORE
FLOW PREVAILS THRU FRI. ONSHORE WINDS RESUME FRI NIGHT OR EARLY SAT
AND INCREASE SAT NIGHT & SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT PENCILED IN
TO PUSH OFF THE COAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  47

AVIATION...
VFR.  47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      66  39  67  42  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              68  42  68  42  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  52  66  52  66 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT
     20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$