
Rainfall graphic courtesy of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) from October 3-8, 2010
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Station Location
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Oct. 4, 2010
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Oct. 5, 2010
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Oct. 6, 2010
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Oct. 7, 2010
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Oct. 8, 2010
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Event Total Rainfall
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5.71 inches*
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0.56 inches
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10.30 inches
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-
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4.95 inches**
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21.52 inches
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0.65 inches
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6.61 inches
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1.58 inches
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3.23 inches
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0.87 inches
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12.94 inches
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Cotton Valley, Saint Croix
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0.59 inches
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4.23 inches
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4.37 inches
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2.49 inches
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0.09 inches
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11.77 inches
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0.27 inches
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2.85 inches
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3.75 inches
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1.50 inches
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0.44 inches
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8.81 inches
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0.08 inches
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1.80 inches
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3.56 inches
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1.44 inches
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0.22 inches
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7.10 inches
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0.15 inches
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0.63 inches
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2.00 inches
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2.30 inches
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1.74 inches
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6.82 inches
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Station Location
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October 4, 2010
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October 5, 2010
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October 6, 2010
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October 7, 2010
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October 8, 2010
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Event Total Rainfall
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Rio Portugues, Ponce, PR
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0.79 inches
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1.30 inches
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1.35 inches
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5.84 inches
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6.35 inches
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15.63 inches
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Lago Patillas, Patillas, PR
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1.42 inches
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0.00 inches
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2.70 inches
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5.70 inches
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5.73 inches
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15.55 inches
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Rio Inabon, Ponce, PR
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2.36 inches
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2.67 inches
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0.91 inches
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3.48 inches
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5.31 inches
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14.85 inches
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Lago Cerillos, Ponce, PR
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2.36 inches
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2.05 inches
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0.87 inches
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2.37 inches
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4.83 inches
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12.48 inches
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Rio Cerillos, Ponce, PR
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0.62 inches
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0.66 inches
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1.30 inches
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4.38 inches
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4.69 inches
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11.65 inches
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Aibonito, PR
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0.06 inches
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0.04 inches
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0.75 inches
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4.08 inches
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6.01 inches
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10.94 inches
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Bo. Marin, Patillas, PR
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0.60 inches
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0.00 inches
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2.30 inches
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4.08 inches
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3.81 inches
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10.79 inches
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Lago Guayabal, Villalba, PR
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1.31 inches
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1.00 inches
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0.86 inches
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3.79 inches
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3.74 inches
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10.70 inches
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Lago Toa Vaca, Villalba, PR
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0.96 inches
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0.96 inches
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0.27 inches
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3.63 inches
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4.65 inches
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10.47 inches
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Patillas, PR
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1.17 inches
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0.00 inches
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1.27 inches
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3.05 inches
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4.92 inches
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10.41 inches
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Vieques, PR
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0.13 inches
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0.00 inches
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6.83 inches
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1.07 inches
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2.31 inches
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10.34 inches
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Lago Adjuntas, Adjuntas, PR
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0.19 inches
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0.14 inches
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0.95 inches
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3.57 inches
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5.07 inches
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9.92 inches
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Rio Coamo, Coamo, PR
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0.26 inches
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0.00 inches
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1.68 inches
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3.62 inches
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4.28 inches
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9.84 inches
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Lago Prieto, Adjuntas, PR
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0.06 inches
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0.18 inches
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0.83 inches
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2.43 inches
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6.15 inches
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9.65 inches
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0.15 inches
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0.95 inches
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0.27 inches
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1.13 inches
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0.75 inches
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3.10 inches
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For the U.S. Virgin Islands, the 4 day rainfall total of 12.29 inches for Charlotte Amalie (October 5th - 8th), reflects a recurrence interval between 10 and 25 years, while the highest 24-hour rainfall total of 6.61 inches, reflects a recurrence interval of between 5 and 10 years.
An excessive rainfall precipitation outlook was issued by the NWS San Juan more than 72 hours in advance of the rains, indicating that rainfall amounts of 6 to 10 inches with localized higher amounts were likely from October 4th - 7th. Also, given the prolonged nature of this potential event and the very wet antecedent conditions, it was recognized that this event presented a moderate threat of flooding (meaning that flash flooding as well as flooding of larger rivers with inundation of structures, and near streams and rivers was possible).
It was not until Tuesday October 5th that the U.S. Virgin Islands, Culebra and Vieques began to experience the very heavy rains and bands of showers and thunderstorms associated with this slowly organizing system. At 9:34 pm October 5th, the first flash flood warning was issued for Saint Thomas and Saint John, followed by a flash flood warning for Vieques and Culebra at 10:03 pm. By the end of the day, the NWS rain gage at the Cyril E. King Airport on Saint Thomas recorded a total of 6.61 inches, the 5th wettest day ever recorded at the site.
On Wednesday October 6th, Subtropical Depression Seventeen formed well to the west northwest, with its tail continuing to produce impressive rainfall amounts across the U.S. Virgin Islands along with numerous reports of flash flooding and mudslides. Soil conditions across the islands remained at or near saturation, and creeks and guts were at high levels, and a flash flood warning was eventually added for Saint Croix at 8:49 am October 6th. Over mainland Puerto Rico, relatively dry conditions prevailed for much of the day on October 6th. Some showers did develop across the west and southeast sections of the island, but moved rapidly eastward. The flash flood watch for Puerto Rico was redefined and extended to cover Vieques, Culebra and the eastern third of the island at 3 pm on Wednesday, and remained in effect for all of the U.S. Virgin Islands. Later that evening, scattered to numerous showers developed, some with very heavy rain, across the southern half of Puerto Rico, Culebra and Vieques. The Rio La Plata in Aibonito, Rio Majada in Salinas, and Rio Grande de Patillas, were all reported out of their banks.
On Thursday October 7th, periods of heavy rainfall affected much of
On Friday October 8th, the rains continued to affect Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Flood warnings were now in effect for many of the main rivers in Puerto Rico. Flash flood warnings were reissued for the U.S. Virgin Islands during the afternoon, as bands of showers and thunderstorms, some with gusty winds and heavy rainfall, continued to move across the local islands. However, compared to previous days, a significant improvement in weather conditions was noted, since most of the steady rains had dissipated. The flash flood watch was eventually extended until 4 am Saturday, but it was discontinued for the U.S. Virgin Islands and some sections of Puerto Rico at 12:35 am Saturday, and at 4:11 am Saturday for the remainder of Puerto Rico.
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