Winter Weather Outlook for West Central Texas

 

By  Matthew Groh, Meteorologist

A cooling trend has been observed in the equatorial waters of the Pacific Ocean during the past several months. This cooling is associated with the development of La Nina. The Climate Prediction Center forecasts La Nina conditions to continue through this winter and into the Spring of next year. How might this have an effect on the weather in Texas? The cooler waters of the equatorial Pacific can have an effect on global circulation patterns, which in turn affects the strength of storm systems, the jet stream, and the track of storm systems across the United States during the winter months. The effects of the stronger La Nina events tend to result in warmer and drier than normal conditions during the winter across much of the southern United States, including Texas. If dry conditions develop and persist for an extended period of time, then drought conditions could redevelop in our area. Another concern with the possible effects of La Nina is with the fire weather situation. If warmer and drier than normal conditions develop during the winter and persist into early Spring, grass and brush will continue to lose moisture and become very dry. This could lead to an increased threat for wildfires.

 

Figures 1 and 2 show the 90-day (December 2007 through February 2008) Outlooks for temperatures and precipitation. These outlooks are issued by the Climate Prediction Center, and take into account the anticipated effects of La Nina. For west-central Texas, the 90-day outlook calls for temperatures to most likely average above normal across all of Texas. The 90-day outlook for precipitation indicates that precipitation will most likely be below normal across our region. As we have seen in recent weeks however, it should be noted that intrusions of cold air and winter precipitation events can still occur, and this is not accounted for in these long range outlooks.

 

In west-central Texas, normal high temperatures in December drop from the lower 60s into the 50s, and then remain in the 50s into February, before rising back into the lower and mid 60s. Normal low temperatures drop through the 30s in December, and then remain close to 30 through January before rising up through the 30s in February. The winter season on average brings the lowest precipitation amounts to west-central Texas. Normal precipitation for December through February is 3.37 inches for Abilene, and 2.94 inches for San Angelo.

Figure 1: 90 Day Temperature Outlook December-February

Figure 2: 90 day Precipitation Outlook December-February

GAINS AND LOSSES in the cooperative observation Program

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Losses for the last 6 months include Mona Hart in Albany. Mona had some health issues that forced her to give up her weather observation duties. In addition, Norman McVey at Lake Abilene 6WNW left the program. The McVeys lost their home in the August flood.

Gains include David Bales at the Albany water treatment plant and the Texas Parks and Wildlife staff lead by Jade Hughes at the O. C. Fisher Dam here in San Angelo.