Who could forget the record breaking 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season? The devastation produced by hurricanes Katrina and Rita to the southeast and southwest Louisiana coasts will take a long time to recover from. The 2005 season produced a record 27 named storms, 15 of which became hurricanes including 7 major (Cat 3 or higher) hurricanes. So the question on everyone's mind as we entered the 2006 season: Would the new season be as active as the 2005 season was?

Conditions certainly pointed to that scenario. Perhaps not another record breaking season as we saw in 2005, but certainly and above normal number of tropical storms and hurricanes were expected in 2006. So what conditions led experts to draw this conclusion? Above normal sea surface temperatures across the Atlantic Basin and across the Gulf of Mexico were predicted. Low vertical wind shear was predicted as too much wind shear in the upper levels of the atmosphere tends to result in these systems not developing or remaining strong for any length of time. In addition, reduced sea level pressures and a more conducive structure of the African easterly jet were predicted which should result in stronger systems coming off the continent of Africa during the Cape Verde season. The first prediction from NOAA came out on May 26, 2006 and the prediction was for the Atlantic Basin to yield 13 to 16 named storms. Of those storms, 8 to 10 were expected to become hurricanes with 4 to 6 of those expected to be major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher.

The 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season began on June 1st and officially ends on October 31st 2006. As of this writing, there have been only 9 named storms in the Atlantic Basin. Of those 9 storms, 5 became hurricanes and only 2, hurricanes Gordon and Helene became major hurricanes, peaking out as Category 3 storms with maximum sustained winds of 111-130 mph. While additional storms are possible as the end of the Atlantic hurricane season has yet to arrive, the 2006 season has certainly turned out to be much more benign than experts initially expected.

Only two storms made landfall in the continental United States, the first of which was Tropical Storm Alberto which made landfall near Apalachicola, Florida on June 13th with 46 mph sustained winds. Alberto produced heavy rain across Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia causing moderate flooding in some areas. Alberto caused $565,000 in damage (2006 USD) and two indirect deaths. The only other storm to make landfall in the continental United States as of this writing was Tropical Storm Ernesto which made landfall near Long Beach, North Carolina on August 31st with 70 mph sustained winds. The death of at least eight people was attributed to Ernesto, which dumped heavy rains throughout its path, especially in the mid-Atlantic states. Damage in Virginia was estimated to have been $104 million (2006 USD), but the total damage is unknown.

So why were the predictions of an above normal 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season not reached? There is much debate currently ongoing to answer this question. Early results are contributing this less than average year to the vertical wind shear being much stronger than predicted. While sea surface temperatures have remained rather high across the Atlantic Basin (the fuel that helps to feed and sustain these storms once they develop), abnormally dry air across the Caribbean Sea has caused a few of these storms to weaken as they approached the Gulf of Mexico.