Heavy Rainfall Expected across the Four State Region by mid-week

(click any of the below images to see a larger version)

A slow moving "cut-off" upper level storm system continues to make progress toward the Southern Plains. As of Wednesday morning the system was travelling slowly across northern old Mexico and far west Texas. Through Thursday, it will slowly lift northeast before being absorbed into the upper flow.

Tuesday(1/8) morning satellite image of the large storm system moving slowly across California.
 

 

6 am Wednesday weather forecast map.
As the storm system approaches from the west rainfall will begin across western areas Tuesday. Rainfall will become more widespread by Wednesday morning. The image to the left shows an area of surface low pressure developing across south Texas. A cold front will extend to the south, with a warm front extending eastward  along the Gulf coast. Heavy rain (depicted in darker shades of green and yellow) will be ongoing from central Texas eastward to northern Louisiana and southern Arkansas.

 

On Wednesday, there will be a slight risk for severe weather generally south of Interstate 20. The main severe weather threat(other than flash flooding) will be damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.

 

 

 

Wednesday severe weather threat area. Image courtesy of the Storm Prediction Center.

 

 

 

6 pm Wednesday evening weather forecast map.

 

By Wednesday evening, heavy rainfall will continue to overspread the area as the surface low and associated fronts lift slowly northeast. Rainfall totals will start to increase by this time and flash flooding may be a concern. Notice in the image to the left, the area of heaviest rainfall may be located along a line from Lufkin, Tx to DeQueen, Ar. By Thursday, rainfall will slowly begin to come to an end from west to east.

Images to the right show rainfall amounts over the past 14 days and possible rainfall totals. The top graphic indicates that the ground is saturated in many locations due to several recent storm systems bringing rainfall to the area. In the lower image, possible rainfall totals are displayed. Some areas could see more than 5 inches of rain by Thursday evening. If these rainfall totals pan out, some flash flooding could occur across the area.

Rainfall totals over the last 14 days. Image courtesy of the Advanced Hydrological Prediction Service.

Possible rainfall totals over the next 3 days. Image courtesy of the the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

 


In summary
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rainfall will begin to move into the area Tuesday and likely won't depart until Thursday. Wednesday has the best rain chances, as well as the best chance for heavy rainfall. Localized flash flooding may be an issue, as recent storm systems have saturated the ground in many locations across the forecast area. Some severe weather may be possible on Wednesday as well. Stay tuned to the latest forecasts as new weather data becomes available.

 

Did you know?

 The NWS office in Shreveport issues a Hazardous Weather Outlook twice a day, at 6 am and noon. This text product gives users an idea about what type of hazardous weather may be expected over the next 7 days. Hazards include severe thunderstorms, flooding, flash flooding, fog, winter weather or a number of other hazards. To see the latest Hazardous Weather Outlook click here. For othe forecast products, simply visit our main webpage by clicking here.

 


 Have any questions, comments or concerns about this story? Feel free to contact us by email at:  

  sr-shv.webmaster@noaa.gov

 

 

 


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