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Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
850 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2015

WYZ101>119-071245-
CONVERSE COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-NIOBRARA COUNTY-
NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-FERRIS/SEMINOE/SHIRLEY MOUNTAINS-
SHIRLEY BASIN-CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY-
EAST PLATTE COUNTY-GOSHEN COUNTY-CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY-
NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS-SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY-
SIERRA MADRE RANGE-UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN-SNOWY RANGE-
LARAMIE VALLEY-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS-
CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY-EAST LARAMIE COUNTY-
850 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WYOMING...SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG. FOG MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES OVER
THE INTERSTATE 80 SUMMIT BETWEEN LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN COLORADO
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE CURRENT FORECASTED TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

$$



Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
238 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2015

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ101>119-071200-
DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-CHEYENNE-
NORTH SIOUX-SOUTH SIOUX-CONVERSE COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-
NIOBRARA COUNTY-NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-
FERRIS/SEMINOE/SHIRLEY MOUNTAINS-SHIRLEY BASIN-
CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY-
EAST PLATTE COUNTY-GOSHEN COUNTY-CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY-
NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS-SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY-
SIERRA MADRE RANGE-UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN-SNOWY RANGE-
LARAMIE VALLEY-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS-
CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY-EAST LARAMIE COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHADRON...ALLIANCE...SCOTTSBLUFF...
GERING...HARRISBURG...BRIDGEPORT...BAYARD...KIMBALL...SIDNEY...
HARRISON...AGATE...DOUGLAS...GLENROCK...LUSK...MUDDY GAP...
MEDICINE BOW...BORDEAUX...GLENDO...WHEATLAND...CHUGWATER...
GUERNSEY...TORRINGTON...RAWLINS...SINCLAIR...HANNA...ARLINGTON...
ELK MOUNTAIN...BAGGS...DIXON...SARATOGA...ENCAMPMENT...
RIVERSIDE...CENTENNIAL...ALBANY...WOODS LANDING...LARAMIE...
VEDAUWOO...BUFORD...PUMPKIN VINE...HORSE CREEK...HARRIMAN...
WHITAKER...CHEYENNE...BURNS...CARPENTER...ALBIN...PINE BLUFFS
238 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2015

...WINTER STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...

THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE IN THE RETURN OF WINTER WEATHER TO
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT TRACKING A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA SUNDAY.
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY INTERACT WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWFALL.

WIDESPREAD RAIN IS LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...IT WILL DRAW MUCH
COLDER AIR SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE WESTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. SNOW LEVELS WILL START AROUND 7500 TO 8000
FEET...THEN DROP TO 5500 FEET EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS BEHIND
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY BE QUITE STRONG...WITH SUSTAINED
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS IS A FAVORABLE
PATTERN FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. TRAVEL
ACROSS INTERSTATES 25 AND 80 COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD TRACK
FURTHER NORTH...WHICH WOULD MEAN THE HEAVIEST SNOW WOULD BE
FURTHER NORTH AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE WESTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WOULD MOST LIKELY EXPERIENCE LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW. IF PLANNING TRAVEL FOR THE MOTHERS DAY WEEKEND ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...STAY TUNED
FOR LATER UPDATES AND STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN CHEYENNE ON THIS POTENTIAL WINTER STORM.

$$




Hydrologic Outlook

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
WYC001-007-015-081609-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1009 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015

...MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED OVER WATERSHEDS IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

...MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

ACTIVE SNOWMELT RUNOFF HAS BEEN ONGOING ALONG CREEKS AND RIVERS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING FOR OVER A WEEK. RECENT RAINFALL COUPLED
WITH SNOWMELT HAS ALSO INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE ACROSS A MAJORITY OF
WATERSHEDS IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO START IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING FRIDAY NIGHT
AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  ONE TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS DRAINAGES WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF TWO INCHES
OF RAIN OVER OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED WATERSHEDS.  AT THIS TIME, THE
HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE LARAMIE AND MEDICINE BOW
WATERSHEDS.

RAINFALL RUNOFF COUPLED WITH SNOWMELT RUNOFF AND SATURATED SOILS
WILL ALLOW SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING TO FLOW
AT HIGH LEVELS BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MINOR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SNOW LEVELS ON FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 7500 TO 8500 FEET, DROPPING TO 5500 FEET BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
 ACTIVE SNOWMELT RUNOFF AND RAINFALL RUNOFF WILL DRASTICALLY SLOW
DOWN BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

LOCAL RAINFALL RUNOFF COULD CAUSE TO THE LARAMIE RIVER AT LARAMIE TO
RISE TO NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MINOR FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE WITH BANKFULL CONDITIONS ALONG THE LARAMIE RIVER.  THE
RIVER MAY SLOWLY RECEDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A
SECOND RISE IN THE RIVER EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AS RAINFALL RUNOFF FROM
THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE BASIN MAKE IT DOWN TO THE LARAMIE RIVER AT
LARAMIE.

STAY TUNED FOR FLOOD WATCHES,ADVISORIES AND EVEN WARNINGS AS
CONFIDENCE GROWS WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNT FORECASTS.

GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT:
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=CYS
VISIT WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE AND SELECT THE RIVERS & LAKES TAB FOR
GRAPHICAL FORECASTS AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.


$$

JTFAHEY




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NOAA National Weather Service
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Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 16, 2007
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