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Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
529 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-231030-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
529 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY MAINLY
SOUTHWEST OF A COLUMBUS TO HOUSTON LINE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH SPOTTY ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
2 INCHES WITH THESE STORMS. ELSEWHERE STORMS SHOULD BE MORE
ISOLATED WITH LESSER RAINFALL TOTALS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH ON SATURDAY AND RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE OVER MOST OF THE AREA. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA PULLING UNUSUALLY HIGH
MOISTURE LEVELS FROM THE GULF AND FROM THE TROPICAL PACIFIC
NORTHWARDS INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A LONG DURATION
HEAVY RAIN EVENT IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACK INTO THE REGION. A LARGE SWATH OF
STORMS SHOULD STRETCH FROM SOUTH TEXAS UP THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY
SATURDAY NIGHT THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS PATTERN WILL
REMAIN ON SUNDAY AND IN ADDITION TO VERY HEAVY RAIN THE
POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ON
MONDAY MORE FAST MOVING HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS WILL MOVE
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AREA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
WILL BE COMMON ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES.

ALL OF THE RAINS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE FALLING ON WET GROUND AND
MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL BECOME RUNOFF. FLASH FLOODING IS VERY LIKELY
TO OCCUR THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO
LIKELY GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE HEAVY RAINS ON TOP OF
THE ELEVATED RIVER LEVELS ALREADY PRESENT IN THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
RIVERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

$$



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