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Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
720 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-241230-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
720 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH SPOTTY ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS AND EVEN SMALL HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. A LARGE SWATH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST FROM THE HILL COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED MAINLY WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 45 CORRIDOR.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS LIKELY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA PULLING UNUSUALLY HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS FROM THE GULF
AND FROM THE TROPICAL PACIFIC NORTHWARDS INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A LONG DURATION HEAVY RAIN EVENT BEGINNING
SUNDAY MORNING IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TRACK INTO THE REGION. A LARGE SWATH OF STORMS SHOULD
STRETCH FROM SOUTH TEXAS UP THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY SATURDAY
NIGHT THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS PATTERN WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS SUNDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION TO THE VERY
HEAVY RAIN THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER BAND OR CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY
HEAVY RAIN STORMS IS EXPECTED ON MEMORIAL DAY. THE TIMING OF THE
STORMS IS NOT THAT CERTAIN AS THE EARLIER STORMS MAY LEAVE A
BOUNDARY TO FOCUS RAINS EVEN MORE. REGARDLESS THIS PATTERN IS
LIKELY TO PRODUCE SHORT TERM FLASH FLOODING SUNDAY AND THEN WITH
INCREASINGLY LARGER IMPACTS ON MONDAY AS THE GROUND BECOMES FULLY
SATURATED AGAIN AND INCAPABLE OF HOLDING MORE RAINFALL. MOST OF
THE RAINS WILL BECOME RUNOFF AND STREET FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY ON
SUNDAY AND EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD ON MONDAY. IN ADDITION RIVER
FLOODING WILL BECOME MORE COMMON WITH ALL OF THIS RUNOFF AND THE
ALREADY SWOLLEN RIVERS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE
COMMONPLACE BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME AREAS SEEING AMOUNTS OF 8 TO
11 INCHES.

IN ADDITION THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EXIST ON SUNDAY. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD INCREASE THE INSTABILITY
OVER THE AREA AND STRONG WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD TO AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AND POSSIBLY A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT. WITH THE GROUND BECOMING SATURATED AND TREES
FULLY LEAFED OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF TREES BEING UPROOTED MAY OCCUR
WITH LIGHTER WINDSPEEDS THAN NORMAL.

THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT SHOULD LOWER ON TUESDAY BUT
SCATTERED STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A MORE ISOLATED HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

$$



Flash Flood Watch

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
447 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-231800-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FF.A.0008.150524T0000Z-150526T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...BRYAN...CALDWELL...CLEVELAND...
COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...CONROE...CORRIGAN...
CROCKETT...DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...
FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...GROVETON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...
HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...LIVINGSTON...MADISONVILLE...
MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PALACIOS...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...
ROSENBERG...SEALY...SHEPHERD...SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...
THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...TRINITY...WEIMAR...WHARTON...WILLIS...
WINNIE
447 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING
 THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...
 BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...
 GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...
 MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...
 WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON AND WHARTON.

* FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING

* A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE COMPLEX WILL TAP INTO
  PACIFIC MOISTURE AND GULF MOISTURE TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO
  THE REGION. TWO SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
  REGION. THE FIRST SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
  AREA TONIGHT THEN SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY. THE SECOND IS EXPECTED
  MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS MONDAY. THESE
  STORMS MAY HIT THE SAME AREAS AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF INTENSE
  RAIN RATES. WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS
  EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
  ISOLATED TOTALS OF 8 TO 11 INCHES ARE LIKELY.

* IMPACTS...WITH THE GROUND ACROSS THE AREA SATURATED AND THE
  LARGER RIVER SWOLLEN FROM THE HEAVY RAINS OF THE LAST FEW WEEKS
  THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IS HIGH AS IS THE THREAT OF
  MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING. THE INTENSE RAIN RATES AND THE
  LIKELIHOOD OF STORMS MOVING OVER THE SAME AREAS IN QUICK
  SUCCESSION WILL PRODUCE STREET FLOODING. OVER TIME THE RIVER MAY
  CLIMB OUT OF BANKS WITH MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT
  MAJOR FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$




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Page last modified: May 16, 2007
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