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Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
542 AM AST THU MAR 5 2015

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-060945-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
THE NEARSHORE AND OFF SHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
542 AM AST THU MAR 5 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS DUE TO STRONG EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF
THE LOCAL WATERS AND PASSAGES.

THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TODAY
AND TONIGHT FOR MOST OF THE BEACHES ALONG THE NORTH...EAST AND SOUTH
FACING COASTLINES. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST SURF ZONE FORECAST
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

BREEZY CONDITIONS AND HIGH WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST
THROUGH SATURDAY. THEREFORE THE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL
CONTINUE AT LEAST UNTIL SATURDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST SURF
ZONE FORECAST ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

$$



Hydrologic Outlook

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
PRC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-
031-033-035-037-039-041-043-045-047-049-051-053>055-057-059-061-
063-065-067-069-071-073-075-077-079-081-083-085-087-089-091-093-
095-097-099-101-103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-123-125-
127-129-131-133-135-137-139-141-143-145-147-149-151-153-VIC010-
020-030-060030-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
827 AM AST THU MAR 5 2015

...THE SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS INDICATES AN ABOVE NORMAL POTENTIAL ACROSS
CULEBRA...VIEQUES...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OF SAINT THOMAS AND
SAINT JOHN...WITH A NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SOUTHERN SLOPES
OF PUERTO RICO AND SAINT CROIX.

CURRENT STREAMFLOWS...
STREAMFLOW MEASURED BY THE USGS GAGING NETWORK SHOWS MOST LOCATIONS
RUNNING IN THE 25 TO 90 PERCENT OF NORMAL RANGE. THERE ARE SOME
OUTLIERS...BUT FLOWS AT THE MAJORITY OF THE BASINS ARE ABOVE 70
PERCENT.

PAST PRECIPITATION...
RAINFALL TOTALS...BASED ON YEAR TO DATE COOP DATA...TOTALS ARE
RUNNING FROM NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR ALL OF THE ISLANDS. THESE
TOTALS RANGE FROM 91 TO 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THE HIGHEST
PERCENTAGE WAS NOTED IN THE SOUTH COASTAL CLIMATE ZONE OF PUERTO
RICO...ONE OF THE MOST ARID ZONES...WHICH IS USUALLY DRY AT THIS
TIME OF YEAR. SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN...THE NORTHERN U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...ARE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE THE SOUTHERNMOST
ISLAND OF SAINT CROIX REPRESENTS THE LOWEST AND THEREFORE DRIEST
ZONE...AT 91 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

SOIL MOISTURE...
WHILE THE WINTER/DRY SEASON FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS USUALLY CREATES DRIER SOILS. THIS YEAR...THE RAINFALL HAS
BEEN SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO LEAD TO SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS THAT ARE
WETTER THAN NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE ISLANDS. THIS OBSERVATION IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...AS ONLY 17 PERCENT OF
PUERTO RICO IS BEING DESIGNATED AS ABNORMALLY DRY (D0). THE SOIL
MOISTURE CONDITIONS FOR THE MAJORITY OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS REMAIN NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

THIS FIRE WEATHER SEASON HAS BEEN RELATIVELY QUIET THUS FAR IN
PUERTO RICO...WITH THE FIRE DEPARTMENT CLAIMING A DRAMATIC DECLINE
IN REPORTED FOREST FIRES. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT
CONTINUES FOR THE PREFERRED AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND THE DRY
FOREST IN SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO. CLIMATOLOGICALLY...THESE AREAS
EXPERIENCE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES...DRIEST SOILS...MOST
COMBUSTIBLE FUELS...AND THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DURING THE
FIRE WEATHER SEASON...WHICH RUNS FROM JANUARY THROUGH MAY.

RESERVOIRS...
BASED ON USGS GAGING SITES...A SAMPLE OF A FEW OF THE MAJOR
RESERVOIRS ACROSS PUERTO RICO SHOW THAT CURRENT LEVELS DO NOT CAUSE
ANY PRESENT CONCERNS. LAGO PATILLAS IS CURRENTLY AT 221.48
FEET...NORMAL OPERATIONAL LEVEL IS 222.00 FEET. LAGO LOIZA IS
CURRENTLY 134.31 FEET...NORMAL OPERATIONAL LEVEL IS 132.00 FEET AND
LAGO LA PLATA IS CURRENTLY 164.92 FEET...NORMAL OPERATIONAL LEVEL IS
155.00 FEET. THESE LEVELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE LEVELS IN MARCH
2014. PRESENTLY...THERE ARE NO WATER SUPPLY CONCERNS FOR CUSTOMERS
SERVED BY THESE RESERVOIRS.

FUTURE PRECIPITATION...
BASED ON THE CARIBBEAN REGIONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK...THERE IS A GREATER
CHANCE OF NORMAL...AND ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF MONTHS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SPRING OF 2015...ENSO SOUTHERN
OSCILLATION REMAINS NEUTRAL TRANSITIONING INTO EL NINO...SUGGESTING
NORMAL RAINFALL CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE SPRING MONTHS.

AS A RESULT OF THESE FACTORS...THE CURRENT SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK
FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS INDICATES AN ABOVE
NORMAL POTENTIAL ACROSS CULEBRA...VIEQUES...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS OF SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN...WITH A NORMAL FLOOD
POTENTIAL FOR THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO AND SAINT CROIX.

HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU

THIS HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK WILL BE UPDATED AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.


$$








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